i read recently that the UK is coming out of recession. the UK is in a better position than most EU countries to recover
i read that germany is likely to suffer badly; the full extent of the 'crisis' not yet being felt due to employment laws and the blip caused by the cash-for-scrap car programme.
now i see to day that [url== http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5621678/UK-to-sink-further-into-red-than-any-major-country-warns-OECD.html ]nullUK ]UK to sink further into red than any major country[/url]
so what's the score? how is the building trade in the UK? highstreet? life in general.
i can't say that here in germany i've seen a massive upheavel. the (almost) brother-in-law's firm went under yet he still got given three months pay (paid for by all other german businesses) so long as he turned up.
i've had more work recently. didn't have much to start with, mind...
Unemployment still rising
Construction industry (in NI anyway) - all but dead
Life in general - s'ok
Government want to win votes in next election = everything's fine
Shops - want you to spend money not keep it to yourself = everything's fine and getting better
banks - would prefer nobody mention recesion as it was pretty much their fault = everything's fine
So unemployment is rising, house prices are falling, most industries are struggling, but everything's fine. See?
the 'experts' didnt predict when it was going to start and how bad it would be.
i have no faith that the same 'experts' will successfully predict how long and bad it will be...
not clear, still some working through to go in terms of job losses etc, maybe another year ???.
Still offensive political silence about UK debt and who/how/when it will get paid.
The Tewkesbury/shopping adivice program last night was sobering (very sobering - but I'm not sure how representative or how balanced it was), I could (very sadly) understand that they felt that they were close to critical mass - ie there were so few shops left trading that the rest would go as well as nobody would come for such a limited choice.
Some signs are rising - house price recovery and improved industrial outlook. Other signs lag well behind - a year or two.
Britain is better placed than most European countries - but that ain't saying much.
Signs of recovery are there but remain fragile and won't feed thru into noticable increase in prosperity for a year or two - and it still could turn downwards again.
Tewkesbury/shopping adivice program last night
I dont have a TV so missed that, but it's local to me.
Tewkesbury is actually a fairly busy town and the market on Saturday is great.
I dont quite see it on it's knees just yet...
As for the economy, Im with gusamc - our national deficit is the most terrifying thing...
PSBR last month was £30bn, twice as much as this time last year. Its £700bn and growing 🙁
There's only three ways out of it: allow inflation to devalue the debt, default on the UK treasury bonds, or cut government expenditure dramatically.
Britain is better placed than most European countries - but that ain't saying much.
Have you seen the latest national deficit forecasts for 2010? Ours is forecast to be 14%. Those solid economic giants Spain and Portugal are 10% and 7% respectively!
(you can download the latest OECD data file from http://www.oecd.org/LongAbstract/0,3425,en_2649_34109_2508165_119656_1_1_37443,00.html )
The STW massive all seem to be continually pessimistic about the economy & always have done
Half the country is worried about the debt - the other half aren't
This recession hasn't really affected me whereas the one in the early eighties was disastrous for me & most of my peers so I guess it really depends on what you do.
Just had a pay rise, expecting another in september, may actualy be able to afford a house at some point, just buying a car, job looks fairly safe.
What recession?
I think the UK is its own worst enemy, the press just seem to be intent on shooting it down. If you believed them every teenager is a baby killing, knife wheelding delinquent, the universities are churning out media studdies grads with 3rd's and the whole country is on the dole.
In reality, crime is down, exam results generaly are going up, we struggled to pick new starters this year becasue of the higher quality available, the media is one of the few industries thats growing and exporting so why not have grads to fill it, and unemployment is still, historicaly speeking, low?
Read the foreign press and everyone with the exception of Zimbabwe is fairly optimistic of your chances, or at the very least bitter that were not as bad as them.
Half the country is worried about the debt - the other half aren'tThis recession hasn't really affected me
Its hasnt and probably wont affect me either. And in fact the next 5-10 years of meagre treasury budgets probably wont affect me either.
But it will affect a lot of other people and that is something to be worried about.
Some signs are rising - house price recovery and improved industrial outlook. Other signs lag well behind - a year or two.
House prices aren't recovering, we've just had one or two months where they weren't falling. The general trend is stil very much down unless we get some more rises in the next month. But many people have an interest in house prices falling as the inflated prices were part of the reason we got into this mess as people borrowed money they couldn't afford and the banks tried to come up with ways to manage the risk.
and that is something to be worried about
Why? you're unlikely to be able to do anything tangible about it
Stoner, ever heard the expresion (or read the book) Lies, dam lies, and statisics?
Yes we may have a bigger debt and deficit than Spain and Portugal, but how much in the poop are they! They make our housing market look stable, and I'm confidently predicting a very slow tourist season for them, just been looking at a friends holliday snaps, if you want white sand and empty beaches, head to Alicante!!
Lies, dam lies, and statisics
Indeed. I quoted it on the cover of my dissertation a number of years ago 🙂
fortunately the OECD arent well known for lieing. It upsets the members you know.
effect/affect, Stoner
Standards, dear chap, standards.
what are you on about boy?
.
.
.
.
🙂
Numbers is my game sunshine...
[u] and that is something to be worried about[/u]Why? you're unlikely to be able to do anything tangible about it
In an economic downturn it is the scoially/economically disadvantaged the suffer the most. In any reasonable persons view it can only be a cause for concern if the UK is looking down the barrel of austere social security/education/defence budgets for the foreaseable.
Hot off the OECD's presses:
UNITED KINGDOM
The economy is in a severe recession, with output projected to decline by 4.3% in 2009 and recover
only mildly in 2010. The financial crisis has severely impaired the supply of credit and house prices
have fallen sharply, thus restraining business and household spending. The depreciation of sterling is
mitigating the downturn, but cannot overcome falling foreign demand. The unemployment rate is
projected to rise towards 10% in 2010, with inflation well below the 2% target for an extended
period.
Measures to support the financial sector, dramatic monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, have
cushioned the downturn. Given a policy rate close to zero and quantitative easing well underway,
monetary policy is highly expansionary. At the same time, public finances have deteriorated
sharply -- with the fiscal deficit expected to rise to 14% of GDP in 2010 -- curtailing the possibilities
for additional fiscal stimulus. To improve stability, the government should continue to develop a
concrete and comprehensive plan to ensure that debt is on a declining path once recovery takes hold.
A continued strong focus on labour force activation policies is also warranted to buttress medium
term labour supply.
But, good news, everyone!
Tractor production is up 3% already this month!
= cut government expenditure, a lot.To improve stability, the government should continue to develop a
concrete and comprehensive plan to ensure that debt is on a declining path once recovery takes hold.
oi Flash, if we're doing standards could you please have a look at TINAS post.
he obviously didn't do a media degree because if he did he'd know that we spell studies S-T-U-D-I-E-S, not S-T-U-D-D-I-E-S.
In any reasonable persons view it can only be a cause for concern if the UK is looking down the barrel of austere social security/education/defence budgets for the foreaseable.
concern? - of course
No point worrying though
semantics uplink.
The good news is that houses are going to get much cheaper.
Bad news if you are sitting on an overpriced turkey though.
Even if the economy recovers next year, lending for housing will be more restrained, so ergo, the demand will be constrained. Prices will drop further once market realities sink in to people who are hoping/praying that this nastiness will go away.
lol, yup, did an engineering degree, and proably misldly dyslexic (cant remember patterns of letters for toffee).
As for house prices, i wouldnt be so sure, especialy towards the bottom end/first time buyers. Theres a lot of people who couldnt get on a few years back, so have been waiting, now its affordable they'r flooding back in. And with the exchange rate as it is, foreign buyers may look at british property the way we looked at foreign property 5 years ago.
The good news is that houses are going to get much cheaper.Bad news if you are sitting on an overpriced turkey though.
Even if the economy recovers next year, lending for housing will be more restrained, so ergo, the demand will be constrained. Prices will drop further once market realities sink in to people who are hoping/praying that this nastiness will go away.
Any chance you could have a look for next weeks lottery numbers in this amazing crystal ball you appear to own...
>= cut government expenditure, a lot.
Phew, luckily that nice man Gordon has said that he won't be cutting anything and it's only those nasty Tories who will have to do that.
from my side of the construction industry, supplier, there seems to be more business about, small stuff, PFI schools etc. There aren't the big 10,000m2+ sheds around.
but on the other side it seems out prices may soon start to rise.
On the house price thing, Interests can only go up, banks are upping the rates, unemployment is still rising and has a way to go yet. So more repossessions are a certainty.
But there is no housing market, no new builds, no secondhand sales, there are simply very few houses for sale, so any that are being sold are in demand. This is distorting all the numbers.
Which way will prices go? i hope down, but then i rent. Ok i will be jobless at the end of the year/middle of next year but the payoff is my deposit.
The market is screwed.
I dont have a TV so missed that
Stoner can't afford a telly 🙁 ......... this country is truly screwed.
Won't your neighbours let you pop round so that you can watch the news on their telly ? 💡
Won't your neighbours let you pop round so that you can watch the news on their telly ?
fat chance.
No. I have to take a deckchair and sit on the pavement in front of Rumbelows*
.
.
.
.
* they still exist, right?
[i]As for house prices, i wouldnt be so sure, especialy towards the bottom end/first time buyers. Theres a lot of people who couldnt get on a few years back, so have been waiting, now its affordable they'r flooding back in. And with the exchange rate as it is, foreign buyers may look at british property the way we looked at foreign property 5 years ago.[/i]
i seriously doubt that house prices will recover or infact stop sliding quickly
employment is going up and up, the only thing keeping a lot of people from defaulting on their mortgages (and businesses on their loans) is the govmt suppressing interest rates, after the next election you
can expect them to rise noticeably, whoever gets in
once the effect of this hits there will be lots more repossessions and people downsizing
i also think that many of the new build/ conversions at the bottom end are pretty unliveable and next to useless as a real home, no storage all about maximum profits per sq ft etc many of these are currently sitting empty and will end up being bought by the unfortunate downsizers, only once their vastly overinflated prices have dropped even more
even with the current low exchange rates our manufacturing base has been driven into the dust so completely that very little benefit will be seen, we dont even compare to the car manufacturers in germany or italy
the only quick-fix hope we have is an improving financial markets; already goldman-sachs are expecting their biggest bonus rounds ever this year, the effect of this may help pick up the economy quickly and make the deficit much less of a worry, this seems to be what labour/torries are hoping for as neither have proposed any restructuring of financial regulation
of course this exposes us to the same cycle of boom n bust that got us here in the 1st place
my own personal suggestion would be a redistribution of wealth, from rich to poor via taxes minimum wage hikes etc as well as trying to reinvigorate british industry, greater financial regulation and a special class in school to tell you that most of what you read in the papers, on the web or see on tv is utter bullsh!t
id also like to see religions exposed for the dangerous fairy-tales they are
any comrades out there agree with me?
my own personal suggestion would be a redistribution of wealth, from rich to poor via taxes minimum wage hikes etc as well as trying to reinvigorate british industry
when you've found out how to do both of those at the same time, promise me you'll give the Chancellor a call 🙂
BoardinBob - Member
Any chance you could have a look for next weeks lottery numbers in this amazing crystal ball you appear to own...
That's chance. This recession has been like a boil about to burst for a few years, and that was inevitable.
I acted on my observations of the economy here, no crystal ball needed, and sold up all my non-essential properties in 2007. A bit early and I was looking like a mug to some people, but better too soon than too late, better to have cash than declining assets.
I won't re-enter the market until house prices represent a reasonable multiple of average earnings. They have a way to come down yet - we may see a dead cat bounce first.
And I don't think low interest rates will survive the next election - if I'm right about that then prices will have to drop further.
Right now I can buy much more with my money than I sold, and it's getting better by the day.
Simple arithmetic - if it defies logic, then it's got to come down to earth at some stage.
Crystal balls are why govt treasurers sit down really carefully.
if you sold up in 2007, you were probably very close to the top of the wave - so to speak.
(i bought my tumbly-down-terrace in May 2007. June 2007 was the first month to see an average national fall in house prices)
nicely timed sir!
Lovin' the way the Governor of the BoE p*ssed on Gordo's chips yesterday! 😀
Tractor production is up 3% already this month!
Drove past the New Holland production plant in Basildon at the weekend. A huge car (tractor?) park FULL of shiny new tractors going nowhere!
id also like to see religions exposed for the dangerous fairy-tales they are
any comrades out there agree with me?
aye aye cap'n
House prices are just suffering a false reprieve due to low interest rates. As soon as they go up again, watch em tumble. *hopes so as sold up and sitting on the equity waiting for much cheapness in 2 years time*
[url= http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/24/financial-crisis-city-banking-money ]see i told you so[/url]
BigButSlimmerBloke - MemberGovernment want to win votes in next election = everything's fine
Shops - want you to spend money not keep it to yourself = everything's fine and getting better
banks - would prefer nobody mention recesion as it was pretty much their fault = everything's fineSo unemployment is rising, house prices are falling, most industries are struggling, but everything's fine. See?
A perfect analysis!
May I add the line "If you still have your job/ solvent business = everything's fine"