[Closed] Self Driving Cars?!

It will make cycling a lot easier. Drive to the top of a big hill, cycle down, and then just meet up with your car and have it drive you to the pub.

It's going to kill MTB e-bikes.

House prices?

I think we'll keep our current car going until we can buy a self driving car.

Loads more cars on the road. Bigger commutes. More weekend trips. It'll be interesting to see the impact on traffic. Whether the tech can manage the jams

House prices? - commuting will be much less of a pain, so I expect people will be willing to commute longer and move out of the cities, if it's cheaper

Loads more cars on the road. Bigger commutes. More weekend trips. It'll be interesting to see the impact on traffic. Whether the tech can manage the jams

- that's a good question and has a lot to do with cost. Will the government add a special tax on driving, with excemptions for some groups, like handicapped and old people.

Interesting point about the radio! I can't wait myself, the roads will be a much safer place! 🙂

Should be less cars everywhere as we switch to hire subscription model. No need for you car to set outside your office all day as it can go off drive someone else.

the sooner the better

Interesting point about the radio! I can't wait myself, the roads will be a much safer place!

- I think most people listen to the radio while driving, but in the future will they do other stuff, like the guy who was killed in the Tesla crash, who watched a movie.

- That's definitely the case and self-driving cars will be less aggressive than many human drivers are today.

I had my first experience with one on Wednesday as I cycled past one of the new self driving shuttles they have on the Greenwich Peninsula in London. I did feel a slight frisson of excitement! It was weird and unusual, but I'm sure we'll all get very cynical about it soon enough lol.

I noticed that they had two stewards in high vis tabbards ten metres further down the way, one of which had a high vis flag which reminded me of the early days of motoring lol 🙂

It'll start slowly on fixed routes with someone like uber or bus service.

The first benefit will be they'll stick to the speed limit so forcing everyone to.

Whether the tech can manage the jams

While there will surely be some hold ups caused by driverless systems, I would expect many types of jams to be eradicated. For instance, rear-enders on M-ways/dual carriageways could be a thing of the past. Even if an accident does occur, a driverless car is unlikely to slow down to rubberneck. Driverless cars should always choose the correct lane, so no making the inside lane(s) redundant because of the folk who sit in second-to-right choking the capacity. Driverless cars will observe the variable speed limits, or probably not even need the variable speed limits, that are so necessary to help smooth traffic flow around slip roads and intersections at busy times. I doubt that driverless cars will use the same program to drive as it uses to check Facebook or read/reply to text messages.
Most accidents are caused by inappropriate speed and the failure of the driver to anticipate what is, or may be, about to happen, which is precisely what driverless car development is all about. I reckon the future is bright, and a good deal safer for all.

Will non self driving cars be banned at some point? How will the petrol heads feel about this?

How long will it take for them to be affordable?

Major implications for employment, no taxi drivers, no delivery drivers ... Personally I have significant reservations about the technology. There have been 1000s of "minor" accidents not reported (eg test driver has had to grab the controls to prevent a significant crash), video of cars driving through red lights etc. How good is the tech going to be at spotting cyclists and pedestrians ? etc etc I have spent some time with top academics on visual recognition systems and when you see how crude they are relative to human vision you'll see driverless is a dangerous thing.

Uber have been testing driverless taxis - passenger has to agree to waive any right to claim in the event of a crash 😯

It'll start slowly on fixed routes with someone like uber or bus service.

It'll be interesting when the first person is killed by a self drive car. It will happen, maybe not because of the tech, but because of the other person doing something unpredictable.

Who is Waymo? Is that a Google company?

no taxi drivers

Well, that makes the roads about a million times safer for a start.

There have been 1000s of "minor" accidents not reported (eg test driver has had to grab the controls to prevent a significant crash)

If they haven't been reported then how do you know this?

I enjoy driving. Is it likely to be made illegal?

Someone has been killed in a self drive car.

There have been 1000s of "minor" accidents not reported (eg test driver has had to grab the controls to p

Waymo is an alphabet company, same as google.

It won't be necessary to ban driving since - a recent piece of research showed - even a small proportion of self drive cars can smooth traffic flow and significantly reduce congestion.

Come on guys, keep up 🙂 the futures here!

I enjoy driving. Is it likely to be made illegal?

I think that you will be allowed to drive yourself, but that the system will override your decisions if you do something wrong, like driving too fast (it will slow you down).

no it won't/hasn't

Thats a test.

The masters of your universe are already thinking about:

People like driving, its fun.
People like commuting, it me time.
People like commuting it divides works from home.
People like cars, there shiny.
People like cars, they display social status.

These questions are being considered because the change that will come with self driving cars is not just the absence of a steering wheel but that absence of ownership.

not just the absence of a steering wheel but that absence of ownership.

All your cars are belong to us.

I'm going to guess at what you mean until the edit 😉

I think we'll be taking out contracts with Ford, Merc or whoever in the future for a car to arrive when we click an app. They'll each be offering different benefits, newer cars, faster arrival times etc and of course some will be able to afford the best service and some of us will have a 5yr old skoda that arrives an two hour after it been ordered.

Either way they wont sit on our drives for 90% of the time like the cars we rent now do.

Most cars in the road these days seem to be driving on autopilot as it is.

It'll put me out of a job!! Which I'm not happy about as it'll mean I'll have to get a 'proper' job which I really don't want. Although for all the proclamations of companies saying they'll be here in 5 years, listening to a debate on the radio a couple of weeks ago many experts believe it's at least 15-20 years before we are at a point were they really are replacing human jobs rather than assisting or tackling motorways.

How much will it cost? Isn't it going to be just in the high end cars? I'm not sure if it will make much difference to car ownership in itself.

It'll be interesting when the first person is killed by a self drive car. It will happen, maybe not because of the tech, but because of the other person doing something unpredictable.

On some level it has already happened. Someone was killed behind the wheel of a Tesla when it ploughed into something it failed to see...

The Tesla is technically not fully autonomous but the driver was killed when they put their trust in an autonomous system.

I believe this is one of the reasons companies like Google are focused on full autonomy and nothing less, because their research shows that people place trust in technology very quickly and pay little attention to the road when using driver assist systems.

Which is a bit of a worry really. Because until we reach full autonomy, there is all this growing technology to get there. And with drivers plugged into smart phones, and smart phones being output to screens in cars, there is a serious scope for error when driver assist systems fail, or simply reach the limit of what they can do.

I'm looking forward to full autonomy though. I like cars and can be a bit of a petrolhead, and have been an active member of car clubs in the past. However, too many drivers have a complete disregard for anyone's safety on the road. People are killed and it's like, "yeah, shit happens..."

many experts believe it's at least 15-20 years before we are at a point were they really are replacing human jobs

They may well be right but it feels closer than that when you read about the pilot schemes that have been taking place in the States for the last 6 months! 🙂

http://www.theverge.com/2016/9/14/12900982/uber-self-driving-car-pittsburgh-launch-hands-on

http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/14/13921514/uber-self-driving-car-san-francisco-launch-volvo-xc90

On some level it has already happened. Someone was killed behind the wheel of a Tesla when it ploughed into something it failed to see...

The Tesla is technically not fully autonomous but the driver was killed when they put their trust in an autonomous system.

I don't count the Tesla as self drive for the point you make. I wouldn't trust anything less then something like the google system.

I noticed that they had two stewards in high vis tabbards ten metres further down the way, one of which had a high vis flag which reminded me of the early days of motoring lol

How old are you ?

Lolz 🙂

uber are sailing rather close to the wind IMO, in a umber of ways.

waymo used to be google self-driving cars.

There have been 1000s of "minor" accidents not reported (eg test driver has had to grab the controls to prevent a significant crash)

How good is the tech going to be at spotting cyclists and pedestrians ? etc etc I have spent some time with top academics on visual recognition systems and when you see how crude they are relative to human vision you'll see driverless is a dangerous thing.

36000 people a year killed or seriously injured on the roads in the US every year. how many have to be killed before you're prepared to forgoe your ill conceived ideas of 'dangerous'?

in the UK:

In reported road traffic accidents for the year ending March 2016:

there were 1,780 road deaths, unchanged from the year ending March 2015
24,610 people were killed or seriously injured
there were 187,050 casualties of all severities
motor traffic levels rose by 1.8% over the same period

I enjoy driving. Is it likely to be made illegal?

Not in our lifetimes. We need to wait for the technology to mature, for a start. Assuming, for the sake of argument, the law is passed (once of a time I'd have said "no chance" but with this government nothing would surprise me any more), what then?

We mandate that all new cars are driverless, fine, the existing fleet will slowly die out over time, on the whole. That'll take, what, twenty years? More maybe, as I'd expect a large percentage of the population aren't going to run out and buy one unless they absolutely have to. It'll be corporates leading this charge - IIRC, the lease market accounts for something like 80% of all new car purchases.

What's to stop people hanging on to old driveable motors rather than picking up 4yo ex-lease vehicles? They're still about, I saw a Peugeot 205 on the road today. So perhaps we say all existing cars must be converted, but then what happens to the guy with the 1969 E-type? To those with vintage cars, and older still? To the chap restoring traction engines? Modifying those vehicles would be an act of vandalism. So what then, you can keep those cars, but never drive them again?

Not going to happen.

Agreed, I find it hard to believe that they will be mandatory, I think that they will be popular though- who would drive instead of watching a movie or reading a book? Oh hell no! 🙂

I think it will make the roads safer if they are recording footage as well, as everyone tends to behave themselves when there's a camera!!

Not going to happen.

The Tesla system is only a driver assist, and users are explicitly instructed that they remain in control of the car The driver who died was not using the system as intended.

I don't think we will ever get proper cycling infrastructure in this country. Switching to driverless cars could bypass that problem and make all roads safe for cycling.

Switching to driverless cars could bypass that problem and make all roads safe for cycling.

Happy for that! 🙂

I don't count the Tesla as self drive for the point you make. I wouldn't trust anything less then something like the google system.

There may be some debate on what Tesla is and isn't, but from their own website...

"[i]All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for [b]full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver[/b].[/i]"

...

"[i]All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.[/i]"

That's pretty advanced stuff and not something they are marketing as driver assistance.

It may not be up to the standard of Google cars, and they are constantly evolving through software updates, but I would say Tesla's current stance very much describes a self-driving vehicle.

At least with driverless cars they'll actually do the speed limit.

This morning following an old boy doing 35 in a 60, hard to overtake when you've a couple of ton of waste on the trailer...

I thought the Tesla stuff was basically beta technology and they kinda shipped it by accident? Or some such.

hard to overtake when you've a couple of ton of waste on the trailer...

You should've gone before you set off.

This morning following an old boy doing 35 in a 60, hard to overtake when you've a couple of ton of waste on the trailer...

Yup that can be frustrating but I'd not worry for another 15mph

Self drive cars are going to be so much safer

Perhaps eventually. Loads of different third party software running on different hardware made by different manufacturers? I've seen that before, it's called Windows 95. I don't overly fancy having to reboot my car when it's doing 90 down the motorway, having to worry about Ford's AI behaving predictably with Nissan's AI in another vehicle, or find that a Peugeot driven through the tunnel from France still wants to drive on the right hand side of the road.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

There may be some debate on what Tesla is and isn't, but from their own website...

"All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver."

But clearly Google have a different idea on what hardware is needed for this. Unless proven otherwise, I'll go with Googles thinking.

I thought the Tesla stuff was basically beta technology and they kinda shipped it by accident? Or some such.

Maybe it was. They roll out updates to the cars all the time, so maybe it's no longer beta. I honestly don't know. But if we're arguing what is a self-driving car, then Tesla's view on it seems pretty clear (even if it is not echoed by everyone in the industry).

Not arguing the whole Tesla vs Google car thing. I know which one I'd rather be driven by...

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

With automated cars you can test how the vehicles behave repeatedly. Google have already driven thousands (millions?) of miles. When faults occur (and they will) you'll have much more data about what happened so preventative measures can be taken to make the vehicles even safer. You don't have any of this with our current human driving, yet people are happy to get in a car and drive down the road at 60mph...

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

People get their cars fixed on the cheap with substandard third party parts?

Have a read of the warnings from the Tesla manual here:
http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/30/12073240/tesla-autopilot-warnings-fatal-crash
That's nowhere near being a self driving car

I know which one I'd rather be driven by

The answer is not as obvious as you might think. Which one?

The answer is not as obvious as you might think. Which one?

I'm not going to pretend to know a lot about the technologies used. Personally I find it inconceivable that it can even be done. But I'm aware that Google's stance is not one of messing about in the middle ground. Their focus is on full autonomy and I would sit in one of their cars for that reason alone.

Elon Musk on the other hand likes to sail very close to the wind.

Apparently Tesla has (or had as of last Novermber) 1.3 billion miles of sensor data with millions of additional miles added every day, compared with Google's 2.2 million miles. That's not autopilot miles driven, that's apparently something like 100 million. I guess that might be moot depending on the quality or the application of the data but it's interesting.

I can't find the link but I believe Tesla's self driving mode is statistically safer than the American national average based on fatalaties per mile driven.

Music, newspapers, mountain bike magazines, bicycles have moved to subscription models. No reason the car can't too.

Apparently Tesla has (or had as of last Novermber) 1.3 billion miles of sensor data with millions of additional miles added every day, compared with Google's 2.2 million miles.

(Without any research so I may be talking rubbish.)
That sounds like just the data from the sensors that are fitted to the car. Is the software trying to understand the data, and act on it? In real time? What would the outcome be if the car was in control?
Gathering data is easy. Understanding it and acting correctly is a whole shed load extra work.

IIRC there was an article from ZDNet /CNET that said Ford were binning any driver assist development and ploughing all the resource to full automation because of the lack of driver oversight, let's face it we either want to drive or want to be a passenger, who would enjoy sitting in a driver's seat not doing anything but watching the computer do it just in the offchance that something extraordinary happens?

As a commuter bike rider i would happily share the road with a waymo (Google) car as it wouldn't attempt a punishment pass, or attempt to overtake and turn left when I'm still level, or dived into a bike lane when I'm in it to undertake a right turning car...

edhornby

As a commuter bike rider i would happily share the road with a waymo (Google) car as it wouldn't attempt a punishment pass, or attempt to overtake and turn left when I'm still level, or dived into a bike lane when I'm in it to undertake a right turning car...

It wouldn't until it decides you are a threat................

The danger is unexpected consequences.

First one I expect is that the technology works almost 99% perfectly but fails when confronted with unpredictable behaviours by non motorised road users. Rather than fix the technology the motor industry will lobby the govt to remove cyclists from the roads.

But there's potential benefits too.

Those visually impaired drivers who currently need the assist of rumble strips to stay on the road will be safer, and doddery old fossils (as I will be shortly) will be able to continue getting themselves around safely.

a threat ?? I would love to hear the logic behind that one

1997. 2:14am Eastern time, August 29th.

jimjam

It wouldn't until it decides you are a threat................

edhornby - Member

a threat ?? I would love to hear the logic behind that one

Cougar - Moderator

1997. 2:14am Eastern time, August 29th.

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If IS continue to use vehicles as their weapon of choice, I'd imagine many governments are already thinking of removing humans from the control of vehicles asap

First one I expect is that the technology works almost 99% perfectly but fails when confronted with unpredictable behaviours by non motorised road users

Google have already demonstrated a self drive car coping with unpredictable behaviour by a cyclist.

In any case, my experience is that too many human drivers are unable to cope with [b]predictable[/b] behaviour by non motorised road users, so I'd be willing to give self drive cars a chance instead.

The technology is moving faster than y'all think.

Accidents per mile way better than human drivers.

Who wants a car that you can not drive?

Cars are fun things to be driven.

The Tesla crash was partly attributable to the fact the USA doesn't require any side under-run protection bars on articulated trailers. Considering Europe requires them on anything over 3.5t (with a few exceptions) they are a long way behind basic 'passive' safety features.

If the trailer had side bars, the Tesla would have recognised the hazard rather than attributing it to an overhead sign, and stopped. If it hadn't stopped, the side bars would have allowed all the normal safety features of the car to operate (crush zones, airbags etc).

There was a similar accident a couple of years ago, this time it was a standard car with a driver in control. The truck had stalled across the road with no electric power so was unlit, the cars dipped headlights simply lit up the road beyond/under the trailer.

The future;

I don't think it'll be long until we see road trains of 4 or 5 Tesla's and similar cars on the motorway, just sipping away at their batteries and just a few cm's apart.

I reckon major junctions will develop features designed to assist autonomous cars. If they develop specific lanes, autonomous vehicles could filter through each other without traffic control, a bit like motorcycle display teams riding through each other at 90 degrees 🙂

and doddery old fossils (as I will be shortly) will be able to continue getting themselves around safely.

Google have already demonstrated a self drive car coping with unpredictable behaviour by a cyclist.

slowoldman

Just so long as you (and I) can afford it. There will of course be no public transport alternative.

I think like all technology there'll be a premium initially but it will trickle down. As for the public transport alternative or lack of, I think it's hard to predict the impact on our traveling habits but I think it will be profound.

I think there will be self driving buses and taxis and I would hazard a guess that once fully self driving cars become the norm people will lose a lot of their attachment to their personal cars.

If your car can be off ferrying people around at night while you watch tv why not? I think car leasing and rental models change and become the norm. Maybe we'll end up renting/hiring cars on a per journey basis directly from manufacturers...who knows.

Here's some information about Google's cars and cyclists:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.recode.net/platform/amp/2016/7/5/12101360/google-self-driving-car-cyclist-bike-handsignals-report

Who wants a car that you can not drive?

Cars are fun things to be driven.

I like the idea of a subscription model for ownership. You could order a wee car for work commuting during the week (or join a shared pickup with other people) and a bigger vehicle at the weekend for a family trip with bikes.

The US haulage industry have a keen interest in the technology as well, because they shift so much stuff by road, and want to save money by automating the driving. Probably tough times ahead if you are a truck driver, unfortunately.

Either way they wont sit on our drives for 90% of the time like the cars we rent now do.

But Taxi's pre date motorcars and didn't prevent mass ownership.

Maybe it'll change the way people in cities get arround, but then most people in London already rely on taxis and dont own a car.

My cars full of all sorts of stuff, tools, clothes, pen/paper, money, snacks, drinks, paperwork. Leasing a car to take me to work is about as likely to be successful as saying the phone box will kill smartphone ownership.

The model (phone box or self driving car) falls down the first time you need it right this second, it smells, it's full of teenagers or you find a used condom from the previous user.

It's interesting about ownership. Cars are a very personal thing and we choose them based on our needs. I do circa 300 miles a week, and for roughly half of those journeys there's a dirty bike sat right behind me. Then there's child seats and stuff... I wouldn't like to give up my car, in the same way I wouldn't like to give up my bikes....

Be interesting to see how it changes the way we use transport though, as I'm sure it will. I'm looking forward to being able to go for a ride and summon a car to pick me up at the end 8)

Self-driving cars.

We don't even have self-driving trains and trams in widespread usage in the UK yet (aside from the DLR), and they're on bloody rails.

thisisnotaspoon

The model (phone box or self driving car) falls down the first time you need it right this second, it smells, it's full of teenagers or you find a used condom from the previous user.

Not if the car goes back to a depot or a cleaning and charging station after each journey. As for needing a car immediately, the car hire infrastructure could be as widespread as petrol stations, maybe more so. The idea that if you suddenly feel the urge to nip down to the offie for a few cans could be superceded by the fact that there's an autonomous car one minute away from there.

Perhaps your child takes sick so you need to get to the hospital quickly. You can take your drive there yourself but your constrained by speed limits - but the Tesla P900 will be there in five minutes and it can take you to the hospital at 250mph because it's proven to be able to operate safely at those speeds.....perhaps.

Will driverless cars have some sort of over-ride in the event of local knowledge being relevant? As in this morning the toddler group meets in the village hall, horses use the bridleway that crosses the road just around the corner: that sort of thing? Things you might want to slow down for.

You could crowd-source that data fairly readily. Plenty of current sat-navs already do it.

slowoldman - Member

I'm sure I recall a very recent case where an autonomous vehicle failed to recognise a cyclist. I shall have a look around for it.

On thursday I had a manual vehicle fail to recognise a cyclist and so did lots of other cyclists. I appreciate this has been said already, but while the final goal is perfection, the hurdle is "better than squishy humans" and that's a very different thing.

[i]My cars full of all sorts of stuff, tools, clothes, pen/paper, money, snacks, drinks, paperwork. Leasing a car to take me to work is about as likely to be successful as saying the phone box will kill smartphone ownership.[/i]

But how much of that wouldn't fit in a holdall? Every commuter that doesn't use a car doesn't carry around all that stuff (unless you have very big panniers)

[i]Will driverless cars have some sort of over-ride in the event of local knowledge being relevant? As in this morning the toddler group meets in the village hall, horses use the bridleway [/i]

It would be pretty easy...for one, the car would be travelling at a speed that is safe, rather than a human rushing due to being late...so it shouldn't need local knowledge. And if its linked to some sort of mapping database, it would be easy to add blackspots where it could reduce speed, or shortcuts that are unsuitable for through traffic. (this is where Google maps cleverness brings shortcomings...often its first choice of route will take me down back roads, single width lanes and through width restrictions, just to save five minutes over an hour on an A road route.)

The way Google is mining all our data, I suspect the driverless car might be on its way to your house before you have even asked for it...

I don't think car ownership is going to disappear. Driverless just gives you more options about how you pay to drive. People who want to own their own car, and keep it filled with their stuff, will buy. Other people will choose to hire.

Instead of messing around removing and reinstalling seats, I'd find it convenient to order a van with "dirty" storage for an MTB trip, and then a car with child seats for a family trip.

My cars full of all sorts of stuff, tools, clothes, pen/paper, money, snacks, drinks, paperwork. Leasing a car to take me to work is about as likely to be successful as saying the phone box will kill smartphone ownership.

But how much of that wouldn't fit in a holdall? Every commuter that doesn't use a car doesn't carry around all that stuff (unless you have very big panniers)

For me. 90% of what I have in the vehicle on a daily basis wouldn't fit in a holdall. Which is why I don't commute by bike.

Plenty of people actually need to carry a lot stuff in their vehicle, plenty of other people can fit what they need in a bag.

Those that commute by bike are in the second group.