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Good night down the pub?
Awesome. Issue of the paper to bed and the down to steak night at the Bear with the daughter of a friend and her mates. Who all add up to less than my age.
INSTAGRAM.COM Not sure if trolls are trolling now,
probability of taking two male dogs is 1 in 3, ie MM MF FF but as we know one dog is male already then 1 in 2 chance ie MM or MF (the chance the second dog is male is 50/50) you can ignore the first dog it’s irrelevant now
I could explain it to you, but I couldn’t understand it for you 🤗🤗
Well let’s start with your bit and I’ll try to catch up. Monty Hall, 2 doors. GO!
Keep fighting the logical fight sadexpunk 😀 I’m with you all the way. One dog is now accounted for
No, it isn't. That's the crux.
Cougar, I fear you posted this question knowing fine well the answer and the confusion it would cause
You are correct on both counts and it's already exceeded my expectations. Posted at 10pm and it's hit three pages in an hour.
I can explain Monty Hall too if anyone would like?
I AM A FISH
Rimmer, is that you?
Ok Skeptics - if you are still not convinced of the wisdom of the 1/3 do this little practical test...
Take two coins and flip them.
Note down if you get two heads or a head and a tail in separate columns
Every time you get two tails discard the flips as invalid
Carry on until you have got say 50 valid pairs of flips. You could do less but statistical anomalies will become less of a thing if you do a good number of them.
Count up how many two heads you have got and how many a head and a tail.
Report back on your findings
And weep!
Monty Hall.
For the uninitiated, the premise is that you're on a game show. There are three prize doors, behind one is a car and behind the other two is a goat, and you're invited to pick one. The host, who knows where the prizes are, then opens one of the other two. He reveals a goat and asks if you'd like to change your mind. Do you?
--
Your initial choice is one out of three. The key here is that that the host will always then reveal a goat. So opening the door doesn't provide you with any new information, you already know that one of the other two is a goat because there's only one car. So imagine then that this door isn't revealed at all; the choice then becomes, do you want the door you've chosen, or both of the other two? You've got a 1/3 chance vs a 2/3 chance, switching your choice is the best call.
I’m only flipping one coin because that’s all that is left and I’m from Yorkshire so flipping two is out of the question 😉
I’m only flipping one coin because that’s all that is left
You're only flipping one coin because you've changed the question to support your answer.
behind one is a car and behind the other two is a goat, and you’re invited to pick one. The host, who knows where the prizes are, then opens one of the other two. He reveals a goat
I think you’ll find he can only reveal half of one (very large) goat as there is only a single goat mentioned in the first sentence.
Mathematicians need not apply.
Oooft. Mathematicians are not statisticians.
One uses logic the other produces random numbers out of thin air to support their arguments down the pub.
probability of taking two male dogs is 1 in 3, ie MM MF FF but as we know one dog is male already then 1 in 2 chance ie MM or MF (the chance the second dog is male is 50/50) you can ignore the first dog it’s irrelevant now
probability of taking two male dogs is 1 in 4, ie MM MF FM FF but as we know one dog is male already then 1 in 3 chance ie MM or MF or FM as we've ruled out FF.
Oooft. Mathematicians are not statisticians.
They’re all the same to me. One person with leather elbow patches is as good as the next 😉
Come on Cougar, Monty Hall but only 2 doors. Cos that’s all we’ve got. So either you can make it work with 2 doors unlike anyone else on here or it has no relevance to this problem.
Convert I agree with what you have said. That is true, but if you toss 2 coins out of my sight, then I ask you to confirm if at least one of the coins is a head and you say at least one of the coins is a head, what is the chance that they are both heads?
One person with leather elbow patches is as good as the next
I thought that was geography teachers....
it has no relevance to this problem
It's another probability question this time of how change increases your odds depending on what you know
Yep, we know the answer 50%.
Convert I agree with what you have said. That is true, but if you toss 2 coins out of my sight, then I ask you to confirm if at least one of the coins is a head and you say at least one of the coins is a head, what is the chance that they are both heads?
1 in 3
I'm not sure why some of you are struggling with this. I've put the two spun coins in my two hands. We know at least one of them is a head but we don't know which so I just do it at random. When I reveal them to you the one in my left could be a head and the other a tail, the one in my right a head and the other a tail or both could be a head. They would have to film three different versions of the scene for each different possible answer.
Please tell me I can drop one of these pennies for you soon.
Yep, we know the answer 50%.
Nope.
Cougar can we put a bracket around your answer
1 in 3 ie MM or MF or FM
id say the answer is MM or (MF or FM)
the bracketed part gives the same answer ie one male one female doesn’t matter which way around so 50/50
1 in 2
As regards your coin tossing the first coin has already been tossed and it landed heads (male)
you then have a 50/50 chance of landing the next coin to make it head heads or heads tails..
why do you make it far more complicated than it is
Come on Cougar, Monty Hall but only 2 doors. Cos that’s all we’ve got. So either you can make it work with 2 doors unlike anyone else on here or it has no relevance to this problem.
I'm not sure what you're saying. But yeah, Monty Hall has but a passing resemblance to this problem, I only mentioned it because a couple of folk asked. It wasn't directly related to my OP.
But why did they cross the road?
So come on and bring the Monty Hall logic on a two door two option problem.id really like to know. Back from the pub now so ready to learn.
Cougar can we put a bracket around your answer
No, because you're changing the situation to fit your solution.
As regards your coin tossing the first coin has already been tossed and it landed heads
We're tossing both coins simultaneously. We do not know that one specific dog is male, rather that either one (or both) is. That's the crux here. You don't know that your first coin landed heads, you just know that one of them will.
So come on and bring the Monty Hall logic on a two door two option problem.id really like to know. Back from the pub now so ready to learn.
I'm happy to try, but I don't understand what you're asking.
So we have 2 dogs. One is male. What is the option for the other dog as we know it can only be male or female or is the original dog a quantum dog (thank you Antman and The Wasp) that can suddenly change gender? Maybe some of you should get down the pub,
As regards your coin tossing the first coin has already been tossed and it landed heads (male)
you then have a 50/50 chance of landing the next coin to make it head heads or heads tails..
why do you make it far more complicated than it is
Errrr!
So we have 2 dogs. One is male. What is the option for the other dog
That's not the question being posed. Read it again.
So we have 2 dogs. One is male.
Which one?
Yes I know the one with dick which dog did the wife check?
Oh cougar I think it’s time for sleep.
your coins isn’t 1 in 3 you are taking tails out of the equation leaving 1 in 2
with that. goodnight ..
your coins isn’t 1 in 3 you are taking tails out of the equation leaving 1 in 2
You can't take the tails out to the equation.
The Monty Hall problem has three doors. We get a choice of doors. There are two options for each door. You choose one door and get a result. Should you stick or twist on you choice for your final and critical door? Heck maybe it should be a lesson on the wonder goats and the joy in abandoning mainstream materialism. But it has nothing to do with this. It is a red herring and there are a lot very clever/stupid/trolls on here.
Scrap that last post. I am getting it now. Convert is right. The head and tail combo will crop up 2/3 of the time if we discount the tail/tail combo. So if I ask if one is head then I am more likely to get a yes response, the tail/head or head/tail split is important.
After eliminating 2 tails, If I ask convert to confirm if one is a head and he says yes without confirming which one, and I can't see them,
1/3 of the time the left coin will be a head and the right a tail.
1/3 of the time the right coin will be a head and the left a tail.
Only 1/3 of the time will both be heads.
your coins isn’t 1 in 3 you are taking tails out of the equation leaving 1 in 2
You toss two fair coins together, there are four possible outcomes, not three:
HH
HT
TH
TT
Probability of two heads is 1 in 4. If you remove TT from the equation then 4-1=3 so it's then 1 in 3.
This is the crux of the puzzle, people are conflating MF and FM as if they are the same thing. They aren't. If you don't believe me, sit down with a couple of coins and a notepad.
Try this. Take two coins. Toss one. Get the result. The toss the second what chances are there on the coins matching because the first is already chosen. The first coin cannot be retossed. That dog is out of Schrod8ngers box, go on, 2 coins. Try it it now.
Try this. Take two coins. Toss one. Get the result. The toss the second what chances are there on the coins matching because the first is already chosen. The first coin cannot be retossed. That dog is out of Schrod8ngers box, go on, 2 coins. Try it it now.
Dude, come back in the morning and give it another go. You'll get there eventually.
Let's really screw them over Cougar.
Its 2 in 3 that theres a boy and a girl.
So basically you should always swap for the cat as regardless of sex the shit will smell the same and you're going to have to pick it up.
Try this. Take two coins.
Yup, you're perfectly correct. The chances of getting the same result on both coins is 50:50. Same as getting a different result is 50:50.
Now, discard all the both-tails flips. What are the chances now of getting both heads?
This is what the dog question asks. We're told that at least one dog is male, ergo there isn't two females / tails. Is it still 50:50? How can you remove a permutation and still get the same odds?
You really did vote for Brexit didn’t you.
I would expect that there's a strong correlation between fifty-percenters and fifty-two-percenters, TBH. But let's not derail the thread.
Scrap that last post. I am getting it now. Convert is right. The head and tail combo will crop up 2/3 of the time if we discount the tail/tail combo. So if I ask if one is head then I am more likely to get a yes response, the tail/head or head/tail split is important.
After eliminating 2 tails, If I ask convert to confirm if one is a head and he says yes without confirming which one, and I can’t see them,
1/3 of the time the left coin will be a head and the right a tail.
1/3 of the time the right coin will be a head and the left a tail.
Only 1/3 of the time will both be heads.
Excellent, my work here is done and I can go to bed with a warm fuzzy glow.
What would Jordan Peterson say?
Try this. Take two coins. Toss one. Get the result. The toss the second what chances are there on the coins matching because the first is already chosen. The first coin cannot be retossed. That dog is out of Schrod8ngers box, go on, 2 coins. Try it it now.
It sounds the same, it uses the same coins but you changed the method.
The head and tail combo will crop up 2/3 of the time if we discount the tail/tail combo.
Bingo.
My last post as it is late. Hope this helps. The shopkeepers wife is washing 2 dogs with gender neutral names, say Leslie and Lyndsey.
I will only buy these dogs if at least one of them is a boy. I am told that at least one of the dogs is a boy. I could purchase these dogs and have 1 of 3 equally likely scenarios knowing this info
1)Leslie is a boy and Lyndsey is a girl.
2)Lyndsey is a boy and Leslie is a girl.
3)Lyndsey and Leslie are both boys
So it is 1/3 chance both are boys.
Got it in the end cougar