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So anyway, what about that BBC article/analysis...... rubbish?
Are they ignorant of Scottish politics too.....does it show thru?
Yes and yes. Happy to help.
I can see a situation where Reform .come second in the Holyrood elections. Few if any politicians in Scotland have the recognition that the pound shop Trump has. From talking to my 17 yo daughter about her classmates I can see a lot of her demographic voting for them. There might not be many Reform voters in hipster Leith but I bet there's a few in the surrounding areas.
In my opinion the correlation between SNP supporters and independence is strong but it is as far from a monopoly as it ever has been. Many vote for other pro indy parties and there's also a sizeable chunk that vote for unionist parties but would vote independence if they believed it a genuine possibility. Swinney knows this. I do believe that there is support for reform in Scotland and that some of it could come from independence supporters who are fed up with the same old same old and want a change, any change. Not a view I share. However at the moment Reform only have some council seats and some of them were defectors from other parties. So there's been no breakthrough yet, polls say it's close but that's no guarantee of anything.
Its an odd conundrum that some SNP voters voted no and a sizable number of labour supporters voted yes.
Of course there is no guarantee of anything but all the signs are that reform will remain a fringe party mainly taking tory votes so fighting for a share of 1/4 of the total vote. Have they actually won any council seats? I thought all their representation was defections.
I can see a situation where Reform .come second in the Holyrood elections.
they would have to double their current support to do so. Where are those votes going to come from? There are not enough tory votes left to take
I can see a situation where Reform .come second in the Holyrood elections.
they would have to double their current support to do so.
Not really. If Reform were to double their current level of support they would probably be the largest party in Scotland.
They are currently polling somewhere in the region of 15-18% which is at least half the level of support for the SNP. They won't need a huge increase in support to knock Labour into third place.
For a while now some pollsters have been predicting the possibility of Reform becoming the second largest party in Scotland. Your repeated claims that Reform will never make any headway in Scotland seem to be evermore shaky.
Its an odd conundrum that some SNP voters voted no and a sizable number of labour supporters voted yes.
I think it's easy to overestimate how important independence is in the eyes of Scottish voters. UK voters (including Scottish ones) are quite volatile and dealigned. It's not an impermeable wall between Unionist and Independence parties in either direction.
And Reform isn't really an ideological party - it's a "stick it up em" party that plays well among people who think the managerialism of the SNP and Starmer Labour is boring and the cause of this stuck feeling so many people have.
I think it's easy to overestimate how important independence is in the eyes of Scottish voters. UK voters (including Scottish ones) are quite volatile and dealigned. It's not an impermeable wall between Unionist and Independence parties in either direction.
I have my doubts about that. I know folk of all political persuasions here and no one I know has swapped from a unionist to an independence supporting party bar those who loaned their votes to labour at the last GE in desperation to get rid of the tories. they will ( as the polls show) mainly return to the SNP for holyrood or go green.
The scottish electorate has had a long time now to get used to the various forms of PR and tend to be quite sophisticated in how they use it - even folk who are non political in their day to day lives.
Not really. If Reform were to double their current level of support they would probably be the largest party in Scotland.
NO they would not. Look at the polling numbers. Please Ernie - listen and learn or shut up. Your profound ignorance on Scottish politics is obvious. folk will not go from SNP to reform or from Green to reform. they are not going to shift from a pro europe party to an anti europe party. I'm going to ignore your posts on Scotland from now on.
Your profound ignorance on Scottish politics is obvious. folk will not go from SNP to reform or from Green to reform.
Blimey, do just say the first thing that comes into your head? No one has said anything about SNP and Green supporters going to Reform.
You falsely claimed that Reform would need to double their current level of support to become the second largest party in Scotland.
I have simply pointed that if Reform did indeed double their current level of support in Scotland they would probably be in the largest party. Reform actually need to only increase their support by a very small percentage to become the second largest party in Scotland.
For several months now it has been suggested by pollsters that Reform could become the second largest party in Scotland, do you want me to provide you with links?
I have to say that for someone who lives in Scotland you appear to a remarkably poor understanding of the Scottish political situation with regards to support of various political parties, or is it just a case of denying what you feel is the uncomfortable truth?
Having said that I guess there are also plenty of people in England who also either don't understand or are in denial with regards to English politics, so I guess it's not particularly unusual.
And also how about dropping your ridiculous assertion that Reform getting seats in Holyrood wouldn't represent a breakthrough for them?
id say it all depends on what counts as a breakthrough for them. In some regards achieving even one MSP would be a breakthrough. Compared to their likely success south of the boarder 1 seat would in fact be a dismal failure not a breakthrough.
at the last election SNP got 64 seats, conservatives had a bit of a breakthrough with 31 putting them second and Labour 22. Greens got 8 and LD 4. I have no doubt that even if they only beat the libdems they will declare a breakthrough. If the match the previous Green record of 8 they will have made quite a leap in a short time - but given no other party is likely to cooperate with them they will still just be shouting from the sidelines. I don’t see them making it to 2nd place. If they beat Labour then the Scottish branch of Labour needs to have some serious introspection not about what reform are promising that they are not but at their failure to differentiate themselves from “London Labour”.
Conservatives in Scotland could well be behind Greens and even Lib Dem’s though.
id say it all depends on what counts as a breakthrough for them
How about going from no seats at all to several seats in Holyrood?
And if you want to make a comparison with Westminster then sure, why not.....at the last general election Reform went from no seats in Westminster to 5 seats, I think any reasonable person would describe that as a political breakthrough for them.
I obviously have no idea how many seats Reform will win in Holyrood next election, if any at all, I am just challenging TJ's assertion that it wouldn't represent a breakthrough for them in if they won some seats. Of course it would.
For months now TJ has denied the possibility of Reform having any significant support north of the boarder. Now he appears to be suggesting that going from about 7% of the vote in Scotland at the last GE and no seats at all in Holyrood to double that level of support and several seats as still not significant.
And I have no doubt that if Reform came second in the Holyrood elections TJ would still pretend that it somehow proved that they don't have any support in Scotland because otherwise they would have won.
TJ can run around moving the goal posts as much as he wants but it wont detract from the fact that Nigel Farage and Reform are a threat in Scotland.
I think it's easy to overestimate how important independence is in the eyes of Scottish voters. UK voters (including Scottish ones) are quite volatile and dealigned. It's not an impermeable wall between Unionist and Independence parties in either direction.
I have my doubts about that. I know folk of all political persuasions here and no one I know has swapped from a unionist to an independence supporting party bar those who loaned their votes to labour at the last GE in desperation to get rid of the tories. they will ( as the polls show) mainly return to the SNP for holyrood or go green.
So...your friends hopping from SNP to Labour and then back to SNP/Green seem like quite good anecdotal evidence of how the wall between Unionist and Independence parties isn't impermeable.
The poll i saw showed Reform in third, within a couple of points of Labour. I don't think it's as much about Reform taking votes from other parties but persuading the people who haven't voted previously to turn out for them. If that happens and Labour voters decide not to vote at all then Reform will be second. It's a depressing thought and definitely possible given what we've seen happen when people vote in recent years.
And Reforms popularity doesn't seem to be affected by the regular scandals that involve their representatives.
folk will not go from SNP to reform or from Green to reform.
I know people who claim to be former SNP voters who now intend to vote reform as they do not believe the SNP will tackle immigration in a way that they want, and that issue is now more important to them than independence. Indy is still important to them, but until it looks like Indy will deliver much more restrictive immigration controls they've gone Reform.
That's obviously anecdotal and reliant on those people being honest.
TJ can run around moving the goal posts as much as he wants but it wont detract from the fact that Nigel Farage and Reform are a threat in Scotland.
They are quite clearly a factor.
I wonder what Labour/Reform/Tory coalition government in the Scottish Parliament would look like...
PCA - since holyrood and the scots electorate overall becoming a wee bit more sophisticated in their voting decisions there has always been a tendency to vote differently in Holyrood and westminster elections. At the last GE a lot of SNP voters voted labour to get rid of the tories - but according to the polls will be returning to the SNP. Around 1/3 of labour voters support independence.
I think a lot of that vote shift was a "lending" of votes. I do not see it in the same way as you do as proof of the permeability over independence and party affiliation but as a recognition that the need to get tories out was higher than the need to get SNP MPs
Please note I have never been as absoloutist as Ernie claims I have. My position on Reform is they are not a significant force in Scottish poilitics and the polls bear this out with their support being half what it is in England. At Westminster they are set to be the largest party, in Scotland a minor irritation
According to a couple of polls (March and May) Reform are on track for 18-20% of votes at the next Scottish Parliament election
That would put them close to Labour, either 2% ahead or behind, and in second or third place to the SNP (on 33%)
I obviously have no idea how many seats Reform will win in Holyrood next election, if any at all, I am just challenging TJ's assertion that it wouldn't represent a breakthrough for them in if they won some seats. Of course it would.
But I’m challenging your assertion that any seat is a breakthrough- you can certainly spin in that way but not that long ago the Scottish Socialist party held multiple seats - they probably believed it was a breakthrough (they were a tiny party, primarily known for the vocal actions of one man). They were a flash in the pan. Margo MacDonal got elected as an independent, the first time anyone had done so, I thought that was a breakthrough for independent MPs and might pave the way for less focus on party politics. It’s never been repeated.
I don’t think you have a breakthrough in Scottish politics if you end up behind the Lib Dem’s! Take a random selection of the Scottish population and ask them to name any of the Lib Dem MSPs, or to define what their Scottish specific policies are and you will likely have a lot of silence.
Reform in Scotland will do better than they ever have before because:
- there are people who lean towards a low taxation, too many benefit cheats and immigrants, human rights are stupid type agenda.
- the tories have always been a toxic brand in Scotland since the days of thatcher, this essentially lets you vote for their sort of stuff without having to admin to yourself you are in fact a Tory!
- the tories in WM shafted what might have been a resurgence in Scotland with Boris and then Truss and the Scottish branch did far too little to be different and got into its own internal battles
- Labour in Scotland has been confused what it stands for, their position has been one of “at least we are not tories or nationalists”
- Greens have done well at picking up the second vote from left leaning nationalists as well as their core environmental types BUT have made such a mess of their time at the top table that I would be surprised if they do anywhere as well as the polls suggest. And that should be a very clear lesson to Reform: some will label any success as a Breakthrough but history will remember what you actually achieve not the fact you got a chance to make a noise.
but ALL of the parties have an identity crisis - take your random selection of the Scottish population and ask them to name the party leader, name any other front bencher / spokesperson, and tell you what their plans are for NHS, Schools, and Policing… on May the 8th they all wake up saying “how did the SNP win again despite everything” - they didn’t, every single alternative lost it. Reform will be shouting from the rooftops that they are the real winners. The better they do the bigger the fall next time because they won’t have done anything to inspire confidence or belief.
will reform motivate traditional non-voters to turn out? Some for sure, but not lots - what they might do is inspire some who have usually voted but can’t bring themselves to vote differently from years or habit/brainwashing and would otherwise have not bothered. But they will need to play their cards very carefully - they are the Farage party and Farage is hated here more than most politicians, he is the one who can get the masses excited, but in Scotland he as likely to be a poisoned chalice as the cause of success. South of the border reform have focused on working class tories and stealing Labour voters. The easily winnable Labour voters in Scotland have already switched, and there are few true working class tories. To actually succeed they need a different strategy in Scotland - which will see them just like every other party that has WM direction setting!
I think you are just challenging the definition of the word "breakthrough" poly.
In the context of Reform UK's performance in Scotland I am using the widely accepted definition of the word breakthrough, ie, "a sudden advance", such as in medicine, technology, negotiations, and indeed politics.
PCA - since holyrood and the scots electorate overall becoming a wee bit more sophisticated in their voting decisions there has always been a tendency to vote differently in Holyrood and westminster elections....
I think you are just elaborating on the general theme of "there is no great wall between Unionist and pro-Indy parties for many voters, but there's a good reason for it".
Your belief that the Scottish electorate is more wiley than others within the UK is charming - having been both of those types of voters I can confirm I am just as stupid voting south of the border in a PR/devolution arrangement as I was when voting north of the border in a PR/devolution arrangement...
I don't think it's as much about Reform taking votes from other parties but persuading the people who haven't voted previously to turn out for them.
It seems to me that so many people are "switched off" by the shit-show of recent UK politics and the lack of any inspiring vision for our countries. They can't be bothered to vote.
My personal understanding and view that what Reform offers is toxic, unworkable, and a lot of smoke and mirrors, matters not unless I vote. And that many more moderate voters have to turn out.
The danger from Reform is that they are creating a vision, a reactionary and emotional movement, a sense of belonging through being 'in it together' and are very good at creating motivation to actually turn out and vote for just one day....
I bloody hope that some of our older parties actually get their shit together quick enough to push back on the national threat that Reform are.
I don't think it's as much about Reform taking votes from other parties but persuading the people who haven't voted previously to turn out for them.
It seems to me that so many people are "switched off" by the shit-show of recent UK politics and the lack of any inspiring vision for our countries. They can't be bothered to vote.
My personal understanding and view that what Reform offers is toxic, unworkable, and a lot of smoke and mirrors, matters not unless I vote. And that many more moderate voters have to turn out.
The danger from Reform is that they are creating a vision, a reactionary and emotional movement, a sense of belonging through being 'in it together' and are very good at creating motivation to actually turn out and vote for just one day....
I bloody hope that some of our older parties actually get their shit together quick enough to push back on the national threat that Reform are.
Proving again what an irredeemable Centrist Dad **** I am, I listened to the The Rest Is Politics two part podcast with Nicola Sturgeon.
I've got to say that she came across very well, as quite personable and with good motivations. I would have listened to a third hour.
However, she didn't sell me on indy (esp after Brexit). The admission that she (and tbf probably everyone else in the party) knew that Salmond was a bully, inattentive and regularly impaired by alcohol was very disappointing- this was the guy they wanted to lead an independent Scotland? And equally the revelation that they were faxing confidential political documents to Salmond while he was in China (ie they may as well have CC'd the CCP) just underscored how ill-equipped the SNP has always been around foreign affairs - just look how Yusuf got sucked in by Erdoğan!
Independence is about a principle not the politicians. We vote for independence then a government.
In an independent Scotland the SNP would soon cease to exist as the glue holding together a very broad party would dissolve. Without the fight for independence the right wing hunting shooting and fishing SNP could not coexist with the left wing urban SNP. those tensions have been very obvious the last few years
Independence is about a principle not the politicians. We vote for independence then a government.
In an independent Scotland the SNP would soon cease to exist as the glue holding together a very broad party would dissolve.
It is astounding how many people don't get this!
Just goes to show that indeed there are a huge number of brainless morons out there. Which is a real shame because they also have the right to vote, and yet do not understand what it is they are voting for in the slightest...
"In an independent Scotland the SNP would soon cease to exist as the glue holding together a very broad party would dissolve."
Where is the evidence for this? In South Africa the ANC stayed in power for 30 years after indy. In India the Indian National Congress which led their independence movement stayed around and in power after 1947.
Turkeys don't vote for christmas. There is also a strong incumbent effect and an inertia that resists change. See Alba in Scotland for example.
After indy the SNP would have the bandwagon effect. Voter recognition etc. Nobody in the SNP who wanted to influence the direction an indy Scotland took would be leaving to set up other parties.
Agreed - Frelimo in Mozambique, HDZ in Croatia, the PDK in Kosovo, the Mapai in Israel, the PAP in Singapore - all parties that led their countries to independence and continue to exist to this day! The SNP is not a single issue liberation front like the PLO - it is a modern democratic European political party.
Obviously it's possible that the SNP would dissolve after independence due to failures. And maybe there are some voters that would abandon them immediately upon independence. But that was never the SNP's intention, and obviously they intended their leader to become the (democratically elected) leader of an independent Scotland. Only a "brainless moron" would suggest otherwise...
"In an independent Scotland the SNP would soon cease to exist"
I believe that many current SNP MSPs agree with you, and have no intention of trying to gain independence as it would leave them unemployed. I reckon that both Swinney and Sturgeon enjoyed the trappings of government too much to give them until it is/was inevitable.
In my darker moments I sometimes wonder if the SNP are funded by unionists. I know it sounds daft, but if you were determined to preserve the United Kingdom would you be better off
a) Trying to make a cogent argument that the current UK government is the best thing for Scotland, or
b) Supporting an ineffectual and weak independence party that make it seem that Scots cannot govern themselves?
After indy the SNP would have the bandwagon effect. Voter recognition etc. Nobody in the SNP who wanted to influence the direction an indy Scotland took would be leaving to set up other parties.
No need the existing opposition parties would inevitable move beyond swapping thistles for roses, and develop their own identity, policy and politics.
Agreed - Frelimo in Mozambique, HDZ in Croatia, the PDK in Kosovo, the Mapai in Israel, the PAP in Singapore - all parties that led their countries to independence and continue to exist to this day! The SNP is not a single issue liberation front like the PLO - it is a modern democratic European political party.
Obviously it's possible that the SNP would dissolve after independence due to failures. And maybe there are some voters that would abandon them immediately upon independence. But that was never the SNP's intention, and obviously they intended their leader to become the (democratically elected) leader of an independent Scotland. Only a "brainless moron" would suggest otherwise...
I don’t think most people who predict their implosion literally mean the party disbanding - more a post Brexit Tory party, or even a ukip - where it is reborn.
yes Alex would likely have become the first Scottish PM but what did we end up with instead? Boris. Salmond probably wouldn’t have lasted long as post Indy years will be hard and he can’t blame others.
Yes, successfully delivering the UK from the clutches of the EU doesn't seem to have done the Tories much good electorally.
I'm sure that's different, but then so is comparing John Swinney to Nelson Mandela and Mahatma Gandhi.
In my darker moments I sometimes wonder if the SNP are funded by unionists. I know it sounds daft
It is. It requires you to believe that "unionists" are simultaneously running a shambolic government from London that's a disaster but also able to sustain a multidecades long expensive covert funding operation that put the SNP into government and wipe the floor with the unionist parties without anyone ever finding out.
Reform have now got an MSP (again). A list MSP for central Scotland who has defected from the Tories.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr74kg1vg4jo
A cynic might say that as the number 2 on the Central Scotland list for the 2021 election his seat was on a shoogly peg at next year's election. As number 1 on the Reform list he looks a cert on current polling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election
"a multidecades long expensive covert funding operation"
Not multidecades, maybe about a decade 🙂
I'm not being serious, but sometimes I find it hard to think of another reason that the SNP seems to be hellbent upon not achieving independence.
I'm not being serious, but sometimes I find it hard to think of another reason that the SNP seems to be hellbent upon not achieving independence.
- you can’t get Indy without public support
- you probably don’t want Indy only marginal support (chaos, division)
- if you are constantly fighting losing Indy battles the opposition throw the waste of time your face
- if there’s no WM route to Indy it actually feeds Indy support because you are kept against your will / they must be scared we leave
- the longer some austerity power runs WM potentially the less deficit you start the new country with, and the more appealing change becomes.
- put all that together and the obvious strategy is patience.
I'm not being serious, but sometimes I find it hard to think of another reason that the SNP seems to be hellbent upon not achieving independence.
- you can’t get Indy without public support
- you probably don’t want Indy only marginal support (chaos, division)
- if you are constantly fighting losing Indy battles the opposition throw the waste of time your face
- if there’s no WM route to Indy it actually feeds Indy support because you are kept against your will / they must be scared we leave
- the longer some austerity power runs WM potentially the less deficit you start the new country with, and the more appealing change becomes.
- put all that together and the obvious strategy is patience.
Wait until England consumes itself with hatred then we’ll quietly sneak off after digging a deep **** off trench across the border, but if you’re not a dickhead then come on up, you’re most welcome
PCA - do you really think @Scotland independent would have been worse than the last 15 years of brexit, right wing governments, austerity and racist rhetoric from south of the border?
In my opinion the real sadness about not voting for independence in 2014 is that we missed out on the incredibly rare chance to build a better country It's not really about comparing ourselves to any other place but about what we can do ourselves.
A cynic might say that as the number 2 on the Central Scotland list for the 2021 election his seat was on a shoogly peg at next year's election. As number 1 on the Reform list he looks a cert on current polling.
Yeah, I watched his interview on the STV news last night and thought he looked very unconvincing. That makes much more sense than the honest reasons that he couldn't quite explain for jumping ship.
"PCA - do you really think @Scotland independent would have been worse than the last 15 years of brexit, right wing governments, austerity and racist rhetoric from south of the border?"
I'm not convinced that the Scottish government has been much better, no.
I'm not going to start doing a list as my purpose is not to run down Scotland or get into a 'but they ...' back and forth argument, but I will say I have been very disappointed about some things I believed we could improve: poverty, drug deaths, health.
Mostly it's just basic competence and conflict. I thought our parliament would show that we could do things better, but I don't believe we have demonstrated that. I think the people the independence movement needs, those who might be persuaded to vote Yes, would look at the last 10 years and think "Really? Why bother?".
Drug deaths - steps to improve the situation ( shooting galleries) blocked by westminster for a decade. Now going ahead
Healthcare - its 50% of the scottish budget. Its better than england tho thats not saying a lot. No medical staff strikes, Nurses are better paid than in England. without the ability to raise significantly more money its not really possible to improve and of course we are saddled with the absurdly expensive PFI contract for ERI