I'm not sure this link's gonna work but:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1990701503997210881?t=_2gWsdn0xcHpbFKJvrrD9A&s=19
The SNP is polling flat at 3% for Westminster voting intentions despite Labour and Conservatives being in a shambles. Reform should be less attractive in Scotland than England & Wales (because its strongly unionist position should? alienate half of voters) and the Polanski effect on the Greens should be muted (because technically its a different party even if there is a bit of halo/spillover). So why isn't the SNP doing better? It seems a little odd to me.
So why isn't the SNP doing better? It seems a little odd to me.
Interested to hear what a good number would be for the SNP on a poll like that.
If the SNP managed to convince 100% of registered Scottish voters to vote for them they would be polling at 8%. If they managed to convince half the population to vote for them they would be polling at 4%.
As it is, given that 3% could mean anything from 2.5% to 3.4999%, that means somewhere between 30% and 42% of the population plans on voting SNP. Assuming that this poll was based on 1000 respondents, that means the Scottish sample size of around 83 people. So when they asked the question, somewhere between 25 and 35 people said they were going to vote SNP.
I'm not saying your analysis is wrong, just curious as why you thought a Westminster poll was the best one to support your argument. You would probably get a better sample size by asking the Scottish voters of STW who they planned on voting for.
I think issues are going to come to a head when it becomes clear to the remaining LibDem, Labour, and Tory voters that it's time to shit or get off the pot. Your choice is either support independence or support a Union led by Nigel Farage.
From the data below, it certainly seems like the Unionist vote is firmly coalescing around the frog-faced ****, but there are still several voters who have to decide if they are going to continue wasting their vote pretending things can ever go back to the way things were before by voting either LibDem, Tory, or Labour, or they can finally decide which horse they are going to back.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
So why isn't the SNP doing better?
According to the latest Scottish/Westminster opinion poll (last week of September) SNP were on 31% which is a touch more than the 30% they got at the general election.
Reform on the other hand have surged even more in Scotland than they have nationally, they have more than trebled from 7% to 23%
Support for Labour and the Tories have dropped though. It seems that the SNP are actually holding their own with the Greens doubling their support in Scotland.
Any lessons to be learnt? Well maybe that Labour and the Tories swinging to the right and the SNP and the Greens holding their ground benefits them?
reform voters in Scotland (ex tory/unionists) are mostly wearing blue football shirts and singing sectarian ditties about a 350yr old corpse, so perfectly at home in such a party as reform.
That's sort of a smug caricature that doesn't stand up to reality if 20% of Scottish voters are thinking of voting Reform.
That's sort of a smug caricature that doesn't stand up to reality if 20% of Scottish voters are thinking of voting Reform.
Thats the sort of smug response I expect from someone who has never worked in a small fishing town bar populated by rangers fans.
Entirely fictional Scottish Reform voters:
That's sort of a smug caricature that doesn't stand up to reality if 20% of Scottish voters are thinking of voting Reform.
Thats the sort of smug response I expect from someone who has never worked in a small fishing town bar populated by rangers fans.
No, I worked in a small farming town bar populated by giant country boys too smashed to care about sport.
You can smugly pretend Scottish Reform voters are just a bunch of staunch bluenose football neds, just like Reform/UKIP voters were stereotyped in England as a bunch of ranting gammons in cords or football shirts. And there will certainly be plenty of people that fit that stereotype. But when they're getting 20%+ in opinion polls, there's clearly a broader appeal and something bigger and more threatening is happening.
But when they're getting 20%+ in opinion polls, there's clearly a broader appeal and something bigger and more threatening is happening.
It would certainly be interesting to a seat-by-seat or even regional split of voting intentions as it's definitely not a uniform pattern across the country.
Westminster elections are so far off that I don't think it's worth thinking about them much while there's still a Holyrood election to come.
But when they're getting 20%+ in opinion polls, there's clearly a broader appeal and something bigger and more threatening is happening.
It would certainly be interesting to a seat-by-seat or even regional split of voting intentions as it's definitely not a uniform pattern across the country.
Westminster elections are so far off that I don't think it's worth thinking about them much while there's still a Holyrood election to come.
But when they're getting 20%+ in opinion polls, there's clearly a broader appeal and something bigger and more threatening is happening.
It would certainly be interesting to a seat-by-seat or even regional split of voting intentions as it's definitely not a uniform pattern across the country.
Westminster elections are so far off that I don't think it's worth thinking about them much while there's still a Holyrood election to come.
If only there was a delete button for these multiple posts...
Vote early, vote often!
If you look at BruceWee's post, then Reform is currently polling at about 19% in Scotland. By the way - I can see that I misread the chart. When I zoomed in, I thought it said 24%, not 19%, so what I said above about Reform polling 20+% in Scotland is not true. It's still a smidge below 20%.
All the same, I think the point mostly stands, esp when they seem to be on a upward trajectory.
So why hasn't the SNP been able to better capitalise on Labour and Tory failings at the national level? It seems odd.
Thats the sort of smug response I expect from someone who has never worked in a small fishing town bar populated by rangers fans.
Was the the steam packet inn? I watched a Scotland match there once, somebody farted so badly at half time most of the pub had to go outside to get away from it
Thats the sort of smug response I expect from someone who has never worked in a small fishing town bar populated by rangers fans.
Was the the steam packet inn? I watched a Scotland match there once, somebody farted so badly at half time most of the pub had to go outside to get away from it
Not the Steam Packet, unfortunately it is now shut. Karen (whose family has owned the Steamie for ever) couldn’t make it pay to be worth the hassle.
Did you ever make it into paddy’s bar next to Tesco?, now converted to a dentists. That was a great “proper drinking tiny bar in the early 90’s, it sold buckfast by the shot/half pint/pint or poitin from a large earthen jug behind the bar.
I worked in the Gordon House back in 94 to 98, every weekend there would be numerous fights n’ punch ups along with the singing “we are the billy boys” bullshit, the only time a weekend was a good laugh and fewer fights was if I sold them all pills on the sat afternoon.