I'm not sure this link's gonna work but:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1990701503997210881?t=_2gWsdn0xcHpbFKJvrrD9A&s=19
The SNP is polling flat at 3% for Westminster voting intentions despite Labour and Conservatives being in a shambles. Reform should be less attractive in Scotland than England & Wales (because its strongly unionist position should? alienate half of voters) and the Polanski effect on the Greens should be muted (because technically its a different party even if there is a bit of halo/spillover). So why isn't the SNP doing better? It seems a little odd to me.
So why isn't the SNP doing better? It seems a little odd to me.
Interested to hear what a good number would be for the SNP on a poll like that.
If the SNP managed to convince 100% of registered Scottish voters to vote for them they would be polling at 8%. If they managed to convince half the population to vote for them they would be polling at 4%.
As it is, given that 3% could mean anything from 2.5% to 3.4999%, that means somewhere between 30% and 42% of the population plans on voting SNP. Assuming that this poll was based on 1000 respondents, that means the Scottish sample size of around 83 people. So when they asked the question, somewhere between 25 and 35 people said they were going to vote SNP.
I'm not saying your analysis is wrong, just curious as why you thought a Westminster poll was the best one to support your argument. You would probably get a better sample size by asking the Scottish voters of STW who they planned on voting for.
I think issues are going to come to a head when it becomes clear to the remaining LibDem, Labour, and Tory voters that it's time to shit or get off the pot. Your choice is either support independence or support a Union led by Nigel Farage.
From the data below, it certainly seems like the Unionist vote is firmly coalescing around the frog-faced ****, but there are still several voters who have to decide if they are going to continue wasting their vote pretending things can ever go back to the way things were before by voting either LibDem, Tory, or Labour, or they can finally decide which horse they are going to back.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
So why isn't the SNP doing better?
According to the latest Scottish/Westminster opinion poll (last week of September) SNP were on 31% which is a touch more than the 30% they got at the general election.
Reform on the other hand have surged even more in Scotland than they have nationally, they have more than trebled from 7% to 23%
Support for Labour and the Tories have dropped though. It seems that the SNP are actually holding their own with the Greens doubling their support in Scotland.
Any lessons to be learnt? Well maybe that Labour and the Tories swinging to the right and the SNP and the Greens holding their ground benefits them?
reform voters in Scotland (ex tory/unionists) are mostly wearing blue football shirts and singing sectarian ditties about a 350yr old corpse, so perfectly at home in such a party as reform.
That's sort of a smug caricature that doesn't stand up to reality if 20% of Scottish voters are thinking of voting Reform.
Entirely fictional Scottish Reform voters:
That's sort of a smug caricature that doesn't stand up to reality if 20% of Scottish voters are thinking of voting Reform.
Thats the sort of smug response I expect from someone who has never worked in a small fishing town bar populated by rangers fans.
No, I worked in a small farming town bar populated by giant country boys too smashed to care about sport.
You can smugly pretend Scottish Reform voters are just a bunch of staunch bluenose football neds, just like Reform/UKIP voters were stereotyped in England as a bunch of ranting gammons in cords or football shirts. And there will certainly be plenty of people that fit that stereotype. But when they're getting 20%+ in opinion polls, there's clearly a broader appeal and something bigger and more threatening is happening.
But when they're getting 20%+ in opinion polls, there's clearly a broader appeal and something bigger and more threatening is happening.
It would certainly be interesting to a seat-by-seat or even regional split of voting intentions as it's definitely not a uniform pattern across the country.
Westminster elections are so far off that I don't think it's worth thinking about them much while there's still a Holyrood election to come.
But when they're getting 20%+ in opinion polls, there's clearly a broader appeal and something bigger and more threatening is happening.
It would certainly be interesting to a seat-by-seat or even regional split of voting intentions as it's definitely not a uniform pattern across the country.
Westminster elections are so far off that I don't think it's worth thinking about them much while there's still a Holyrood election to come.
But when they're getting 20%+ in opinion polls, there's clearly a broader appeal and something bigger and more threatening is happening.
It would certainly be interesting to a seat-by-seat or even regional split of voting intentions as it's definitely not a uniform pattern across the country.
Westminster elections are so far off that I don't think it's worth thinking about them much while there's still a Holyrood election to come.
If only there was a delete button for these multiple posts...
Vote early, vote often!
If you look at BruceWee's post, then Reform is currently polling at about 19% in Scotland. By the way - I can see that I misread the chart. When I zoomed in, I thought it said 24%, not 19%, so what I said above about Reform polling 20+% in Scotland is not true. It's still a smidge below 20%.
All the same, I think the point mostly stands, esp when they seem to be on a upward trajectory.
So why hasn't the SNP been able to better capitalise on Labour and Tory failings at the national level? It seems odd.
Thats the sort of smug response I expect from someone who has never worked in a small fishing town bar populated by rangers fans.
Was the the steam packet inn? I watched a Scotland match there once, somebody farted so badly at half time most of the pub had to go outside to get away from it
Thats the sort of smug response I expect from someone who has never worked in a small fishing town bar populated by rangers fans.
Was the the steam packet inn? I watched a Scotland match there once, somebody farted so badly at half time most of the pub had to go outside to get away from it
Not the Steam Packet, unfortunately it is now shut. Karen (whose family has owned the Steamie for ever) couldn’t make it pay to be worth the hassle.
Did you ever make it into paddy’s bar next to Tesco?, now converted to a dentists. That was a great “proper drinking tiny bar in the early 90’s, it sold buckfast by the shot/half pint/pint or poitin from a large earthen jug behind the bar.
I worked in the Gordon House back in 94 to 98, every weekend there would be numerous fights n’ punch ups along with the singing “we are the billy boys” bullshit, the only time a weekend was a good laugh and fewer fights was if I sold them all pills on the sat afternoon.
Call me naïve but I think I'd notice if my spouse was spending £40k per year more than they were obviously earning. Maybe it's just that my wife and I have never earnt enough that £40k would be seen as a small change.
Call me naïve but I think I'd notice if my spouse was spending £40k per year more than they were obviously earning.
To be fair to Sturgeon, in the past I have dealt with frauds (mostly other people's...) where the spouse of the fraudster had not the slightest idea what they were up to. But mostly that was because they were gambling addicts and losing money every night online. Seeing two nice cars and a campervan show up and not wondering how you afforded them seems...remarkably uncurious. Especially when the claim was the campervan was SNP property for campaigning, which isn't even plausible on its face. Equally the various purchases from shops etc (unless maybe he was selling them to generate cash for illicit pastimes - which happens).
But also to be fair to Sturgeon, she was probably working longer hours than most people at the time, and perhaps despite being formally married they lived separate lives. That happens too.
But also to be fair to Sturgeon, she was probably working longer hours than most people at the time, and perhaps despite being formally married they lived separate lives. That happens too.
Rumours were that the marriage was dead a few years ago, and she was living with a woman, but kept the marriage as a convenience to stop the inevitable questions about her living arrangements, so it’s quite possible that she had little idea about what he was spending, but I doubt the claims about the camper van, if he had said the SNP bought it, surely she should have asked someone else about it being as she was Party Leader?
(unless maybe he was selling them to generate cash for illicit pastimes - which happens).
Edit to add: or, of course, prosecutors are completely wrong and everything was perfectly above board. Nothing has been proven in court, after all!
Interesting tho’. I had the impression that this was just going to be about money donated for Indyref2 being diverted to prop up the SNP.
Interesting tho’. I had the impression that this was just going to be about money donated for Indyref2 being diverted to prop up the SNP.
Exactly how it was reported at first. Clearly there is more to it than most people knew until today.
I'm surprised that there does seem to be an element of personal enrichment - even if rather petty and pathetic sums.
Sturgeon will forever be tainted by this. Its just not credible the whole story.
even if rather petty and pathetic sums.
nearly half a million? No wonder Peter Mandleson can say didn't even notice £75k and keep a straight face 🙂
even if rather petty and pathetic sums.
I guess it depends on your viewpoint. I'm a retired IT person whereas you are a Leith property magnate 😉
whereas you are a Leith property magnate
And knitwear model
half a million over more than a decade. If you are going to dip your hand in the till thats not a lot. Aim higher like the tories
half a million over more than a decade. If you are going to dip your hand in the till thats not a lot. Aim higher like the tories
Jenrick only got a £12,000 donation in return for saving Richard Desmond £45,000,000.
This is the worst whataboutery ever.
Oh for sure. They are so cheaply corrupted. NO party is free from it
And you know that the embezzlement charge relates to the camper van? come on PCA - yuo usually are much more accurate than that. As far as I am aware we do not know what its in relation to
And I still bet there will be no criminal sanction over this Bet you a nice mutton pie
TJ, are you still accepting bets after today's reports? It's still early doors in the game, not even reached the halftime oranges...
It clearly didn't work, but I think it's quite a smart amount to filtch. SNP won't exactly be rolling in dosh so you've got to be realistic what you can divert annually.
It's enough to live beyond your means for that endorphins purchase rush day after day in a lifestyle you 'think' you deserve but not so outlandish you are living a life people wouldn't expect you to live. If someone said they drove an i-pace, had a posh campervan and he had a thing for vintage fountain pens I'd have said - 'yeah, seems about right'.
There will be a load of people on this forum who have bikes in the garage that their partners are more a little vague about the value of. I'd say with a stealthy amount of vagueness and a suitably disinterested/preoccupied partner drip feeding in that amount of 'extras' without drawing attention might be possible. The motorhome blag feels like a serious overstep if you wanted to keep it on the down low though.
I'm surprised that there does seem to be an element of personal enrichment - even if rather petty and pathetic sums.
Sturgeon will forever be tainted by this. Its just not credible the whole story.
Tainted by this? In fairness apart from the true believers most people aready thought Sturgeon was a bit slippery. Deleting Whatapps before the Covid enquiy, convenient memory lapses, not minuting meetings during Covid etc.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68032233
And you know that the embezzlement charge relates to the camper van? come on PCA - yuo usually are much more accurate than that. As far as I am aware we do not know what its in relation to
And I still bet there will be no criminal sanction over this Bet you a nice mutton pie
TJ, are you still accepting bets after today's reports? It's still early doors in the game, not even reached the halftime oranges...
OOooh - the curse of my predictions. Murrell will be a very lucky boy to come out of this without sanction
The whole thing should never have happened, I said to a pal in 2012 that we the SNP should not have a couple in the then positions of chief executive and deputy leader, nevermind leader and chief executive
I am not sure how the trial will affect the election I suspect the SNP vote won't fall that much. Due mainly to the state of the rest of the parties. It'll be interesting to see how the press coverage of Murrell compares to the coverage of Mandelson. A lot depends on whether Murrell pleads guilty or not guilty The latter is likely to mean the trial will not take place till after the election not sure what will be the timescale if he pleads guilty
The trial is postponed I think until after the election. I don't think this will have much effect anyway.
Some folk think that the trial has been postponed to deliberately leave a black mark hanging over the SNP during the election period. Others think it's been deliberately postponed so folk will forget about it until after the elections. I don't think either is true, it's just a measure of how slow justice in Scotland actually works. It still doesn't make sense to me that over £3m has been spent on the investigation into misappropriation of party funds, it's been almost 2 years since Murrell was charged, we still don't have a plea and that Colin Beattie, as SNP Treasurer during the period of the alleged fraud, had no inkling of what he was signing off. That's before we even consider Nicola Sturgeons apparent disinterest in her household finances.
Financial crimes are notoriously hard to investigate and prove, and embezzlement is particularly complex. Probably all the harder when the people who could probably clear things up are uncertain if they might be on the hook themselves and the accused has been lending money to the party. If the case collapses, no doubt it will be suggested that sinister forces are at work, but it's just as likely to be the defence lawyers reminding the crown what they'll actually have to prove. To be clear - this isn't the trial that was "postponed", AFAIK no trial date has actually been set, the pleading diet has been moved back, if he pleads not-guilty there it will quite likely be sometime in 2027 before a trial starts!Some folk think that the trial has been postponed to deliberately leave a black mark hanging over the SNP during the election period. Others think it's been deliberately postponed so folk will forget about it until after the elections. I don't think either is true, it's just a measure of how slow justice in Scotland actually works. It still doesn't make sense to me that over £3m has been spent on the investigation into misappropriation of party funds, it's been almost 2 years since Murrell was charged, we still don't have a plea and that Colin Beattie, as SNP Treasurer during the period of the alleged fraud, had no inkling of what he was signing off. That's before we even consider Nicola Sturgeons apparent disinterest in her household finances.
Some folk think that the trial has been postponed to deliberately leave a black mark hanging over the SNP during the election period.
Some fowk have no idea what they're jabbering about.
The timeframe of this investigation and trial is totally normal for an allegation of this value and complexity. Could you shake the magic money tree and pay for more prosecutors, defence counsel (don't know if he's on legal aid or what), courts and court administrators to speed this kind of trial up? Yes, a bit, possibly. Is the Murrell trial being delayed to prejudice or favour the SNP? I don't see it.
I certainly don't think the process of bringing the case to trial is being affected by anything other than the broken and inefficient nature of the legal process in Scotland
Some fowk have no idea what they're jabbering about.
Which is folk on both sides of the "why has it been delayed" discussion.
Could you shake the magic money tree and pay for more prosecutors, defence counsel (don't know if he's on legal aid or what), courts and court administrators to speed this kind of trial up? Yes, a bit, possibly.
He is entitled to legal aid: https://news.stv.tv/politics/peter-murrell-granted-legal-aid-after-embezzlement-charge
The issue is not really what resources you can throw at the Murrell case to "rush it through" its what other cases do you delay as a result. Anyone on remand should really get priority, the public probably want child abusers dealt with quickly, and I'm sure many people on this site would want death by driving offences prioritised over a shambles with a political party funds. That's before you even consider which police witnesses, accounting experts, SNP staff etc you need to call to give evidence etc.
The issue is not really what resources you can throw at the Murrell case to "rush it through"
No-one is suggesting doing that.
Ha, **** em……thankfully Labour are a non entity in Scotland
labour are way behind the snp fighting for a poor second place with reform and greens.
I think the SNP will get close to a majority as tbeywill clean up the constituency seats despite under 40% of the vote. Greens second Labour third reform 4th but 2nd to 4th is very close .
and are labour really going to go back to their disastrous anti snp pact with the tories? or recommend voting reform or lib dem?
Why would you need to vote tactically to “save the Union” - no party has proposed a Declaration of Independence without a referendum.
Meanwhile, Reform UK's leader in Scotland has apologised for a "clumsy" homophobic joke he told while addressing a London Scottish RFC dinner in 2018. To me, "vile" has always been one of those tabloid words that is just hot air. What Malcolm Offord said is genuinely vile. However low your expectations are - prepare to be disappointed.
It's ok, farage says it just rugger dinner bantz and we should be all allowed that when with our chaps at the club.
And as an attender of many a rugby club dinner I suggest they both foxtrot Oscar.
Im hoping that my voting options are easy but I'm concerned about reform.
I've just read the "joke" he is truly reprehensible. Every paper should publish it just so people know that sort of individual he is.
I'm not easily offended but that's awful.
You know it's bad when the rugby club members are offended. Reform voters aren't offended so he won't go anywhere, just sit out for a day or two until the next inconsequential Reform scandal probably involving his boss.
The telling thing is that he claims he knew instantly something was wrong when he told the "joke" so it was the audience reaction that worried him. Then he apologised and donated money to an organisation associated with one of the groups he slurred.
Not much evidence of him reflecting on his attitudes and behaviour there.
I've read it. Tbh it's the sort of 'joke' Roy Chubby Brown would have told in the 1990s. Maybe even today if he's still alive and working (not checked). When I think of a default reform voter, it's pretty much Mr Brown I think of. So maybe it's bang on the money for his base.
You know it's bad when the rugby club members are offended. Reform voters aren't offended so he won't go anywhere, just sit out for a day or two until the next inconsequential Reform scandal probably involving his boss.
Yeah I thought when the story broke that it would be the sort of thing that was heard/said in Rugby clubs arounds the country at the time and whilst it was probably poor taste, it was probably not as bad as the media fuss. Then I read the report of what he said...
I think a fair proportion of reform voters would find what he said "gross". There will also be some who are quite used to this level of debase humour, and a chunk who will defend his right to "freedom of speech" even if they didn't like the joke.
I'm not a reform voter - and don't subscribe to freedom of speech arguments - but I do worry a bit that anyone who's ever done or said anything stupid at any point in the past will be put off politics because your entire history will be raked over. I'm sure there's plenty of present day things to challenge him over without needing to rake around the past.
Polling for holyrood
With less than two months until polling day, the survey of more than 2,100 people by Lord Ashcroft puts the SNP on 39 per cent of the constituency vote and 31 per cent on the regional list – down from 47.7 and 40.3 per cent respectively in 2021.
Reform UK, which in recent months has overtaken Scottish Labour in many of the polls, is the second largest party in the constituency vote, with 14 per cent. However, it would receive the third-largest vote share in the regional list with 15 per cent.
Polling shows the Scottish Greens are in second place on the regional list, with 17 per cent of the vote. In the constituency vote, the party sits in fourth with 11 per cent, one point behind Scottish Labour.
It looks very much to me like this election will show up flaws in the scottish system and not end up with a proportional chamber.
List vote is the critical one for everyone but the SNP. SNP will clean up in the constituencies because of the fragmentation of the unionist vote and the collapse of labour and will end up over represented with something around a majority of seats. Everyone else will get list seats but will end up under represented
Its going to be very interesting with local variations and tactical voting being very important.
I already see false information flying around - like the lib dems are going to target my seat and consider it a good prospect - they came 4th last time with a measly 4% of the vote 🙂 God knows how they think that. I wonder if its a misreporting and they are targeting a list seat in the lothians? Weird
I think we will see a strong tactical anti reform vote in the constituency vote
"2nd vote green" seems to have caught with them having a significantly higher list vote than constituency vote. Other parties are much of a muchness bar the SNP losing votes to Greens on the list. Greens as the official opposition will be fun. It could happen with the SNP gaining enough constituency seats to govern and the greens in second place looks likely
LOts to dig into here