Jings Folks; where were YOU at 2.15PM on December 18th 2019 when TJ came up with a better set of policies than any party in the UK had during the GE? Broken clock etc...
richmtb
Subscriber
6) Lease Faslane to rUK for £5bn a year.On nuclear I have principles but they aren’t worth billions
tbh, i'm for that, couldn't give a hoot about nukes. 😆
seosamh
BTW, everywhere with in the uk has a deficit outside of london and the SE.
I know.. I told you that :O)
I'm ambivalent on the future of scotlands economy, could be bad could be good. And theres no definitive reason I can see why it can't be good TBH, but it would take TIME to get back to where we are now, and TIME to rejoin the EU.
But I'm a bit unforgiving of people who refuse to accept that the bit in between now and the sunlit uplands might be a shitshow for the people that indy promised to help and take care of. (and you can't deny that the rhetoric of "NHS under threat" despite local control is a driver here).
TJs economic miracle described above (which I shall call "the celtic drugbowl" in honour of I.M. Banks) is longer and more plausible description of the future than I've seen discussed in SG circles.
Whatever indy is about (and its been about many things over the years) it has to be (even more after brexshit) about telling the truth about what you're offering.
If you do that, and people vote for it, then fine.
If you improve the economy right now, and make the rhetoric true and get 60% of people to vote for it, better.
molgrips
Not only is that cartoon historically and economically illiterate, it’s inaccurate and embarrassingly one-eyed and emotive. A pretty breathtaking sweep of shitness and yet it’s the one you posted epicyclo!
No-one with a brain thinks you’re too poor, too small or too stupid. The main issue is that you’re not currently set up to be independent in the modern world and that’s going to be a huge problem for you for a long time.
Humour deficit there, molgrips. It's a cartoon and it's illustrating a theme. (I expected one of you to jump on the Sweden/Norway reference)
But I notice you didn't address my actual statement so I'll repeat it to save you looking for it.
The one good thing you can say about the Empire’s anti-independentistas is they are great recyclers, yet they get it wrong – every time.
Oh, and to keep it fresh here's another example of doom-mongering by one of the Empire's placemen
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Here's a challenge for you.
Find a prediction of doom prior to the independence of a country (similar to Scotland) that has turned out to be true.
It shouldn't be hard, should it? After all there's hundreds of independent countries out there, and I know there's a similar amount of forecasts of calamity.
Surely you must be able to find at least one that turned out to be true.
Why is Scotland unique amongst all the countries that have sought independence?
How much do you know about the context and aftermath of independence for all these post-independent countries?
eat_the_pudding
Member
seosamhBTW, everywhere with in the uk has a deficit outside of london and the SE.
I know.. I told you that :O)
I’m ambivalent on the future of scotlands economy, could be bad could be good. And theres no definitive reason I can see why it can’t be good TBH, but it would take TIME to get back to where we are now, and TIME to rejoin the EU.
But I’m a bit unforgiving of people who refuse to accept that the bit in between now and the sunlit uplands might be a shitshow for the people that indy promised to help and take care of. (and you can’t deny that the rhetoric of “NHS under threat” despite local control is a driver here).
TJs economic miracle described above (which I shall call “the celtic drugbowl” in honour of I.M. Banks) is longer and more plausible description of the future than I’ve seen discussed in SG circles.
Whatever indy is about (and its been about many things over the years) it has to be (even more after brexshit) about telling the truth about what you’re offering.
If you do that, and people vote for it, then fine.
If you improve the economy right now, and make the rhetoric true and get 60% of people to vote for it, better.
The deficit has been reducing significantly as % of gdp, from 16.3% in 09/10, to 8.5% now excluding the oil.
epicyclo
No You!
I'm predicting eff all.
I'm saying that the CURRENT FIGURES show that we have a deficit, and that wishing it away without paying for it somehow (austerity?) won't wash.
Of course scotland can be a country, but are you saying that we could afford (tomorrow, independent) the social services and NHS provision we currently have?
If you are then you are the indy equivalent of the worst kind of brexshitter.
To put it more simply;
I'm not going to believe you about the projections of sunlit uplands while you are shovelling shit in my ears.
You can (and no doubt will) argue about the reasons for scotlands relative economic position, but closing your eyes and promising that everything will get better because of "X" is for children.
By the way you still haven't used your epignomic insights to explain why NI's deficit is a thing of the imagination and would have no negative effect if the extra money went away suddenly.
When you've finished with NI, you can do the same for the rest of the UK region by region until we're all rich beyond our wildest dreams! :O)
molgrips
How much do you know about the context and aftermath of independence for all these post-independent countries?
I'm not the one making predictions of doom so I'm relying on your claimed expertise in this matter.
So reveal the list of failures to us, we're waiting with bated breath for enlightenment.
You may even save us from our dire fate!
seosamh,
good .. lets keep it up and see what happens when rhetoric meets reality :O)
I might (still) not be in favour of indy, but I'd be less bothered if I lost to people who were telling the truth.
if the extra money went away suddenly.
Why does the money go away suddenly? Does Scotland have an inability to borrow to cover the shortfall while it grows it's economy?
eat_the_pudding
Member
seosamh,
good .. lets keep it up and see what happens when rhetoric meets reality :O)I might (still) not be in favour of indy, but I’d be less bothered if I lost to people who were telling the truth.
I'm not disagreeing with and never have disagreed with GERS. I'm just struggling with idea that scotland can't borrow to cover the shortfall like ever other country on earth.
Scotlands deficit is lower, 8.5% of GDP without oil, 7% with its geographical share, than what the uk has run in recent years at it's peak. The uk hit 11% not that long ago.
eat_the_pudding
...By the way you still haven’t used your epignomic insights to explain why NI’s deficit is a thing of the imagination and would have no negative effect if the extra money went away suddenly.
Mmmm, so sorry, seem to have struck a nerve.
Tell you what, just as I have asked molgrips, rather than squabble over semantics, and economics, just give an example of an independent country similar to Scotland that has failed.
I'm not sure why I should be interested in NI though. Their independence (or otherwise) is their business, not mine.
seosamh,
Yup just like Greece did ................. I can see now I've been a fool all along :O)
BTW Its a BIG deficit.
epicyclo
You don't know (or refuse to acknowledge) the difference between an estimate of current actual spending and revenue and potential future improvements in scotlands economy.
Will it help if i put it like this;
These GERS figures are close
Those sunlit uplands are faaaaar away.
any help?
seosamh,
Yup just like Greece did …………….. I can see now I’ve been a fool all along :O)
BTW Its a BIG deficit.
UK 11%, manageable, scotland 7% unmanageable! Dooooooommm!
Are you listening to yourself?
What excludes Scotland from borrowing over the short to medium term to cover the shortfall?
We agree it exists, but you seem to think Scotland can't manage it despite it being lower than recent uk levels.
Show me where ANYONE has said that;
an independent country similar to Scotland that has failed.
No-one is saying "failure". I'm saying economic hardship, a bad time for the poor and disadvantaged, and not a lot to spend on the things that many indy supporters claim as the very reasons for their support.
Even with the best most positive economic growth figures nicola says that scotlands economy might take 25 years to recover from independence and qualify for the EU.
Even if all the positive growth predictions were true, then getting there (back to now plus back in the eu) would have consequences for social and health services in scotland in the interim period.
At no point during that process would scotland be described as a "failure". It would be an independent country with all its own borders and everything.
But things might be a bit shit for some of the occupants.
But if anyone mentions that they're talking scotland down, or saying that indy scotland would be a failure or [insert slogan here].
No-one is saying “failure”. I’m saying economic hardship, a bad time for the poor and disadvantaged, and not a lot to spend on the things that many indy supporters claim as the very reasons for their support.
Why does that need to be? With growth and borrowing, there is no reason for the hardship you mention.
Austerity is a policy choice that you refuse to accept Scotland won't choose.
Lols @ Duckman
Make me King of Scotland - or even Emperor!
*puts on new clothes and struts around leith*
Molgrips - the " too small, too poor, too stupid" is actually what the main unionist arguments about scottish independence boil down to.
seosamh
nice try :O) UK deficit is not 11%
I just had a quick look and greeces deficit wobbled around 10% and peaked at 16% during the recent crisis.
At those levels austerity is not a choice.
ETP nope but it was 7 or8% a few years ago which is around the real size of Scotlands deficit
eat_the_pudding
Member
seosamh
UK deficit is not 11%
I never said it is, I said it was not that long ago.
I just had a quick look and greeces deficit wobbled around 10% and peaked at 16% during the recent crisis.
At those levels austerity is not a choice.
Just as well Scotlands is sitting at 7% then.
And when it was scotlands was 15%
but it's not anymore.
Anyway now that we've established that its sunlit uplands all around and back to the winchester for a pint, I'm off for now :O)
eat_the_pudding
epicyclo
You don’t know (or refuse to acknowledge) the difference between an estimate of current actual spending and revenue and potential future improvements in scotlands economy.
Nice sideways swerve there.
Still waiting for an example...
You haven't established heehaw, other than your refusal to accept that scotland can/most likely will grow under independence, and scotland can borrow under independence.
And that austerity is a political choice.
I’m not the one making predictions of doom
No you're making claims that it'll all be fine. They also need backing up. Your arguments are purely emotive.
But the question I asked specifically is how much do you know? You're saying that Scotland will be fine cos all these other countries are fine. I want to know how much you know about these places you cite.
I find it amusing that epicyclo's cartoon cites India and Singapore as post-independence success stories. Singapore has some of the highest wealth inequality in the world (because they slashed everything to attract business) and in India, over two thirds of people live on less than $2/day and 30% live on less than $1.25 a day.
I'm not suggesting that would happen to Scotland, of course, just holding up how stupid your arguments sound.
I can't think of a region that has recently become independent with a similar economy to Scotland and a similar relationship to its state.
molgrips
...and in India, over two thirds of people live on less than $2/day and 30% live on less than $1.25 a day.
Not exactly similar to Scotland though, eh?
Are you saying Indians are now worse off than under the Raj before they got independence?
Or the Singaporeans?
Oh and no-one has said Scotland is too small, too poor and certainly not too stupid. What people are saying is that it would harm Scotland's economy and economic prospects because of the sheer number of outstanding questions that cannot be answered, and the extent to which Scotland relies on British (not English) business, systems and institutions.
Are you saying they are worse off now than under the Raj before they got independence?
No, I'm saying literally what I actually typed. The cartoon you cited is bollocks, and it's intended to manipulate emotionally.
And Empire - yeah ok. The thing about the sun not setting on the empire wasn't as suggested "the sun will not set" meaning the empire will last forever, it was "the sun does not set" meaning that it had territory in enough time zones to ensure it was always daytime somewhere in the empire. And let's not forget that it was a British empire and the Scots did VERY well indeed out of it. Scottish people were over-represented in the higher strata of government and fame.
India, over two thirds of people live on less than $2/day and 30% live on less than $1.25 a day.
It's a bit silly looking at nations from 70 years ago tbh. But anyhow..
Yes, GDP per capita is high, but that's an average of the gross GDP over the number of people. Most do not get that, hence my comment about poverty.
And if you're intending to show that independence caused the increase in GDP (correlation/causation) here's a graph for China which wasn't colonised by Britain:
I'm all for proper economic arguments, and I could be persuaded by good ones, but it's the low brow emotional crap dressed up as argument that I can't stand.
molgrips
...because of the sheer number of outstanding questions that cannot be answered, and the extent to which Scotland relies on British (not English) business, systems and institutions.
The future is uncertain even for a country that is already independent.
I'm not arguing at the moment, I seeking information that you appear to hold, and of which I and my fellow independence seekers are apparently unaware.
There are some outstanding questions that still have not been answered, and I wish to consider those answers.
EDIT: I know what the "sun does not set on the British Empire" means. I was living in a part of it seeking independence, so I've heard all those objections already. And if we start with the American Revolution, and go forward, you'll find them repeated.
OK, about the cartoon, sorry. It was a failed attempt at injecting a spot of humour. (BTW Mint Sauce isn't real either... 🙂 )
molgrips
Subscriber
Oh and no-one has said Scotland is too small, too poor and certainly not too stupid. What people are saying is that it would harm Scotland’s economy and economic prospects because of the sheer number of outstanding questions that cannot be answered, and the extent to which Scotland relies on British (not English) business, systems and institutions.
The counter argument is that the uk is holding itself and scotland back.
GDPPC for the uk $47,042
Scotland: $43,740
Closest in size to Scotland(I'd suggest using close european neighbours is better than talking about india and singapore):
Ireland - 4,914,714 - GDPPC - $81,686
Norway - 5,399,422 - GDPPC - $76,620
Denmark - 5,781,776 - GDPPC - $54,564
Finland - 5,536,952 - GDPPC - $48,221
Slovakia - 5,459,014 - GDPPC - $37,268
One example, like an IS’s ability to increase immigration and the population size, given it’s stunted population growth(which isn’t changing under the uk), say that Scotland has the potential to grow differently from other nations who’ve had that control all along. There’s one stat, in the SGC, that says if scotlands population had grown at the same rate as the uk it would be sitting at 6.1million just now.
I would be asking why people prefer places like Oldham and Heywood to Scotland. According to the iS nationalists England is full of racist Tories but they ignore the reality that immigrants prefer to settle in some of the grimest parts of England instead of Scotland.
Happy to listen to any explanation of why.....
big_n_daft
I would be asking why people prefer places like Oldham and Heywood to Scotland.
Over investment an more opportunities in the SE most likely.
South East over investment isn't really a plus point in the unions argument.
Why has irelands population risen in recent years by 1.3million since 1990, yet scotlands is only up just under 400k?
The counter argument is that the uk is holding itself and scotland back.
GDPPC for the uk $47,042
Scotland: $43,740
That's more of an argument.
On the other hand, UK probably has the economic power to change that if it could just stop electing scumbags*. Scotland might not.
* who's going to come out with the 'we won't elect scumbags, we're too smart for that' line?
Btw, likes of Oldham, have increase in population of about 7% since 1990, about the same as Scotland. So that particular preference doesn't really exist.
Heywoods population has barely changed from 1991 to 2011.
Greater manchester's population has rise by about 10%, while london's has by about 30%.
Glasgows urban area has seen a similar 10% rise as manchester.
* who’s going to come out with the ‘we won’t elect scumbags, we’re too smart for that’ line?
That's TJ's line.
Mines is, I'm pretty certain I'm going to think most scottish governments are bawbags too. 😆
seosamh77 Why has irelands population risen in recent years by 1.3million since 1990, yet scotlands is only up just under 400k?
They’re better catholic’s obvz.
Btw, likes of Oldham, have increase in population of about 7% since 1990, about the same as Scotland. So that particular preference doesn’t really exist.
Heywoods population has barely changed from 1991 to 2011.
the demographics have changed, Oldham town centre wards are a classic example of "white flight".
Manchester is example of a city that has areas that are changing their demographics in that classic cycle as immigrants move into poor areas and move out as they establish themselves and can afford to move to more desirable areas.
Looking at your comparison of Glasgow to Greater Manchester. If Greater Manchester isn't banging on about the lack of immigration to support population growth, why is Scotland?
What does white flight have to do with anything, I don't care about the demographic make up, it's all good, population differences are similar though.
Point isn't about population growth for populations sake. It's that investment and population increases over time = larger economy, see london, see dublin..
I'm pretty sure the north of England is crying out for investment, if they get it it will mean population growth which in turn will strengthen and grow the economy.
Tj(yet)again ; )
Molgrips – the ” too small, too poor, too stupid” is actually what the main unionist arguments about scottish independence boil down to.
That’s not true. I’ve never heard anyone say any of those things. Actually, sorry I take that back, it might have been the ‘unionist’ argument, given by the politicians who campaigned against Scottish Independence. But I don’t remember anyone I spoke to giving them as reasons for their voting no, at the last referendum.
