We are not going to get a Section 30 order at the first time of asking, if we ever get it. Beginning the process now means that it may be forthcoming in three years time depending on how clever Sturgeon can box.
Boris will be doing the calculations on when it will happen, earlier may be better, but what he also knows is that even if the SNP lose it again three years later they will be demanding another go
You won’t be using the pound.
So what?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48069470
Merks and bawbees then
According to the BBC:
The PM spoke to the first minister by phone on Friday evening, with Downing Street saying he had "reiterated his unwavering commitment" to the union.
Looks like it's on then.
Every so often a Daily Mail type reader repeats the lie that Scots hate the English, so I thought I'd chuck in this meme that's just one of many going around independence social media.
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We are encouraging an influx from the south.
Merks and bawbees then
Ah yes. Too poor, too wee, too stupid.
Why aren't SNP wanting us to go to the €uro? For all the administrative hassle that leaving the UK would entail, surely changing to it would just be another one we'd be as well to go through at the same time?
Ah yes. Too poor, too wee, too stupid.
Don't know where you get that from, I just referenced historical Scottish coinage
pipm1
Why aren’t SNP wanting us to go to the €uro?
That makes sense to me, but some will want to hang on to the vestiges of the past, like monarchy and the £.
Of course Scotland could use the pound. It's partly ours
Narcissist? Moi? 😉
Of course Scotland could use the pound. It’s partly ours
The question of course would be who controls it/ I can't imagine either country wanting their currency to be under the control of the other.
I'd just switch the euro myself.
Narcissist? Moi?
Yes,because no other politician has taken a picture of themselves.
Never mind the question of the Irish border, I can't wait to see the solutions to an independent EU-Scotland and an England/Wales outside the EU.
Hadrian was right.
You think England is going to put borders up to European countries?
Seems the Brexit dream of a free trade nirvana has died very quickly. 😆
England wants a trade deal with every country in the world. Bar Scotland. 😆
That attitude also seems to suggest some kinda delusion that a post Brexit UK isn't going to be completely aligned with European trade rules...
You think England is going to put borders up to European countries?
Seems the Brexit dream of a free trade nirvana has died very quickly. 😆
England wants a trade deal with every country in the world. Bar Scotland. 😆
So how would it work then? - because I genuinely don’t understand. The EU as far as I’m aware won’t want Scotland to be in the EU and the rest of the UK outside without a border/ some way of controlling what goes into the EU. Would they not have to insist on Scotland putting up a border?
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-ireland-border-customs-norway-sweden/amp/
As a working example.
That attitude also seems to suggest some kinda delusion that a post Brexit UK isn’t going to be completely aligned with European trade rules…
Ah, I missed this. I have a really poor understanding of any trade rules and even less idea what this government plans or can achieve.
The EU as far as I’m aware won’t want Scotland to be in the EU
What makes you think that?
If England wants to put up a border that's entirely up to them. It'll not happen though, as they will be completely aligned with european free trade post brexit anyhow.
The question of any border between The uk and the EU will be answered before any indy ref anyhow. I'm predicting 2023/24. So we'll have a much better understanding of the UK/EU relationship by then.
The EU as far as I’m aware won’t want Scotland to be in the EU
What makes you think that
Context. Read the rest of the sentence
fair do's, my post answers it's anyhow, UK/EU trade will be a known quantity time we get a ref anyhow.
Never mind the question of the Irish border, I can’t wait to see the solutions to an independent EU-Scotland and an England/Wales outside the EU.
Hadrian was right.
Can't remember the exact numbers but the Irish border has something like 300 crossing points while Scotland England has around 25.
In addition, people probably won't be shooting at any border posts like they will be in Ireland.
seosamh the link posted by scotroutes suggests the type of difficulties at the border that I had in mind. Also my understanding is that the UK government want to be less closely in line with EU standards than Norway. The case for Scottish Independence, like the UK leaving Europe appears to be mainly emotional, the solution to a lot of the issues will need to be made a lot clearer to win over union (is that what you’d call them?) voters.
Do you happen to know what percentage of Scottish Independence supporters are ‘leave leave’ ie leave the UK and leave Europe? I was lead to believe it’s quite considerable, but I’ve not seen any figures.
Only the new businesses would be paying tax and contributing to the economy instead of being parasites like those we lost.
Because Scottish people are all honest and decent unlike those slimy English? Is that what you mean?
Of course Scotland could use the pound. It’s partly ours
Rubbish , the Bank of England acts as the ultimate guarantor for the pound , and whilst still part of the union , the funny money version.Scotland prints.
B of E is under no obligation whatsoever to underwrite the currency of a nation that has just become independant. , thus will not give Scotland permission to carry on using the GBP.
Not that it matters anyway as the EU membership Scotland seeks will come with the non negotiable clause of adopting the euro.
molgrips
Subscriber
Because Scottish people are all honest and decent unlike those slimy English? Is that what you mean?
You're better than that Mol. Of course that's not what they mean- it's just the inevitable conclusion if businesses leave a country due to a new regulatory framework, they will leave a void into which companies that are willing to operate under those rules will step. Of course those companies are no more likely to be run by scottish people than the old ones were likely to be run by english people.
Sometimes companies do create a demand but we're constantly told that we can't properly tax starbucks frinstance or we'll "lose" them and all the jobs they "create". As if they're the only people in the world with access to the magic ingredient, coffee. Meanwhile small chains and independents have to pay tax at their full rates while competing with massive multinationals that don't.
gauss1777
Member
seosamh the link posted by scotroutes suggests the type of difficulties at the border that I had in mind. Also my understanding is that the UK government want to be less closely in line with EU standards than Norway. The case for Scottish Independence, like the UK leaving Europe appears to be mainly emotional, the solution to a lot of the issues will need to be made a lot clearer to win over union (is that what you’d call them?) voters.
Do you happen to know what percentage of Scottish Independence supporters are ‘leave leave’ ie leave the UK and leave Europe? I was lead to believe it’s quite considerable, but I’ve not seen any figures.
I'm under no illusions there will be challenges to an independent Scotland. I don't say it will be a bed of roses. But clearly, Scotland and England want to diverge politically. Main one being Scotland wants to continue in the EU project England doesn't. As well a plenty other ideological difference, England seems to want to reject a decent welfare state, has no inclination towards universalism, and wants closer alignment with the US for example.
So it's far from just emotional, emotion does play it's part bit it's not the only driver.
As for percentage leave/leave.
EU ref was 38% leave the EU, 62% remain.
GE just there was 45% SNP, 25.1% tory, 18.6% labour, lib dem 9.5%, Green 1/%, brexit 0.5%.
Going on that you'd imagine the leave/leave percentage is tiny tbh. Scotland is definitely pro EU.. Whether it is pro independence is still to be answered.
Listen, no-one is wanting to take Scotland out of the UK against it's will, but given we are now out of the EU, it's a question that should be asked.
It's democratically correct.
brownsauce
Scotland seeks will come with the non negotiable clause of adopting the euro.
Why is the euro bad?
The talk of it's imminent collapse in the years of the independence ref and before have never materialised.
Rubbish , the Bank of England acts as the ultimate guarantor for the pound , and whilst still part of the union , the funny money version.Scotland prints.
B of E is under no obligation whatsoever to underwrite the currency of a nation that has just become independant. , thus will not give Scotland permission to carry on using the GBP.
Not that it matters anyway as the EU membership Scotland seeks will come with the non negotiable clause of adopting the euro.
can you provide proof for those points?
There is a cadrè of Leave/Yes voters. I can't recall numbers but something around 10% of SNP voters during a survey I saw. Of course, there's an offset in the number of No/Remain voters too, and we now know that's not a possible outcome so the big question is; how many of those will switch to Yes/Remain* There's a few on the Labour side already apparently coming to this conclusion.
*technically Rejoin but I'm trying to keep it simple.
Currency:
Using GBP would ease transition and make cross-border trade easier. The BOE cannot prevent another country using it. Easier to sell to the electorate I reckon.
There are still scare stories about the Euro; either it's due a crash or it's controlled by the Germans. That might make it a harder sell to the electorate.
While a commitment to the Euro is mandatory for new entrances, the rules are that the country must be in the ERM for at least 24 months prior to adopting the Euro. Joining the ERM is not mandatory.
You’re better than that Mol. Of course that’s not what they mean
There appears to be an undercurrent of bigotry from many nationalists. I'm calling it out.
But clearly, Scotland and England want to diverge politically. Main one being Scotland wants to continue in the EU project England doesn’t. As well a plenty other ideological difference, England seems to want to reject a decent welfare state, has no inclination towards universalism, and wants closer alignment with the US for example.
There's a lot wrong with this post. I'd bet that most English will not want to cosy up to the USA at all. Not a chance. Johnson's government might, but even with a majority he in no way speaks for everyone in the country. The are only considering it because they might need to.
As for other political differences - you sure? It's long been said that to win in the UK you need to occupy the centre ground. Blair found this out. The only reason the SNP did well in Scotland was that they are centre, and credible. If they stood UK wide they'd have cleaned up - most on here acknowledge this. You cannot draw those conclusions from the Scottish vote because the context was not the same.
brownsauce
Member
Not that it matters anyway as the EU membership Scotland seeks will come with the non negotiable clause of adopting the euro.
Nice to see the exact same debunked lies being put out as last time. Yes, all member states are required to commit to joining the euro. But there's no method to force anyone to carry that through, and no penalties to failing to do so, as Sweden proves, and Hungary, and Poland. The EU accepts that joining the euro is the member states' choice but it's also easy for any country to avoid the issue by not meeting the criteria to do so.
There are 9 countries in the EU that don't use the euro, and only 3 are making any effort to join it.
The truth is the exact opposite. If Scotland wanted to adopt the EU on day one, it would need the normal convergence criteria to be abandoned. We just don't meet the requirements to join it. There is an argument for the EU to do so, since they're not designed for new nations, but that'd need a massive concession from the EU and would be problematic with the 3 still-converging nations that want to join the euro but can't.
Of course, if the SNP were to switch today and say "yes, we'll join the EU", everyone who currently peddles the lie about having to join it would switch to saying "well you can't so there".
molgrips
There’s a lot wrong with this post. I’d bet that most English will not want to cosy up to the USA at all. Not a chance. Johnson’s government might, but even with a majority he in no way speaks for everyone in the country. The are only considering it because they might need to.
As for other political differences – you sure? It’s long been said that to win in the UK you need to occupy the centre ground. Blair found this out. The only reason the SNP did well in Scotland was that they are centre, and credible. If they stood UK wide they’d have cleaned up – most on here acknowledge this. You cannot draw those conclusions from the Scottish vote because the context was not the same.
Well, they voted the tories in, so there's enough that it's going to happen and the politcal differences are tangible.
Tbh we'll find out in the Scottish elections what Scotland thinks. If the Scottish electorate don't back the SNP's assertions we'll find out in 2021.
2021 will be a tipping point I'd predict. And it'll be an election without the noise out Brexit.
the funny money version scotland prints
Please keep this chat up. Never stop. Make sure to also talk about "jocks" and "scotchland" as much as possible
It's the ideal unintended pro Indy propaganda we need.
molgrips
Subscriber
There appears to be an undercurrent of bigotry from many nationalists. I’m calling it out.
If you think that's true, call it out where you see it not just randomly where it's not apparent. "Calling it out" where there's no reason to see it is daft. We're mostly talking about multinationals ffs.
molgrips
It’s long been said that to win in the UK you need to occupy the centre ground. Blair found this out.
And then May disproved it. And Cameron understood the reality, that you don't want to actually occupy the centre- it's much better to stand exactly where you want, and pretend it's the centre, and have your mates in the media back that up.
Miliband tried to move to the centre, he was still Red Ed despite being politically pretty close to where John Major was, and to Cameron's initial campaigns- and the Tories just took the opportunity to lurch rightwards unchecked. Somehow it's always Labour that are supposed to move to the centre and the centre is always where the Tories have moved to today. Cameron and May were both "the centre" despite having such different messages, how does that work? The Lib Dems and CHUK are genuine centrists, look how well that's gone.
There are fundamental problems for Labour and for other centrist and left leaning parties in the RUK. Not so in Scotland of course.
molgrips
There appears to be an undercurrent of bigotry from many nationalists. I’m calling it out.There appears to be an undercurrent of bigotry from many nationalists. I’m calling it out.
A strong belief that democracy is best served by listening to the people who live in it, and not the country next door is not bigotry. Were the Irish bigots when they sought independence? The Norwegians, etc etc etc?
There's a mote in your eye.
Northwind explained what I was talking about.
Brownsauce
Of course the pound partly belongs to Scotland
It's the UK currency and the BOE is the UK reserve bank
Don't want us to use it. Buy us out which will cost a lot
I thought the Bank of Scotland had already been bought by the people? 😉
I have no issue with Scotland becoming independent at all, if that is what the majority wish for. I would like to see a fair and balanced campaign/referendum though but a fat chance of that in this era, it'll all be bullshit and promises with plenty of name calling thrown in. From both sides of course.
A side note, this listening to the people of Scotland stuff seems a bit smelly, the ref was won clearly by the remain campaign a few years ago. So we should be listening to those people, correct?? Claiming people aren't listening to the Scottish people when you clearly aren't listening yourself sounds a bit crazy to me
Somebody posted the vote percentages the other day for this election and still the actual vote numbers look similar to the ref result - 55 - 45, so isn't another ref still touch and go and should we be trying to avoid another 50/50 split type decision?
A side note, this listening to the people of Scotland stuff seems a bit smelly, the ref was won clearly by the remain campaign a few years ago. So we should be listening to those people, correct?? Claiming people aren’t listening to the Scottish people when you clearly aren’t listening yourself sounds a bit crazy to me
The above in spades. Once again the majority of Scottish voters voted for parties firmly opposed to yet another divisive referendum. Yet we are ignored by the SNP time and time again. By all means they are free to put forward the argument for independence, but this business of suggesting they somehow represent the "people of Scotland" really sticks in my throat.
If the next Scottish election has more than 50% voting for parties in favour of a second vote then yes, let's do it, but until that time happens why not respect the wishes of the voters.
All this shows is the absurdity of first past the post.
the ref was won clearly by the remain campaign a few years ago.
Democracy ended in 2014? I think you'd concede that the UK of 2021 looks a lot different to that of 2014, no?
Somebody posted the vote percentages the other day for this election and still the actual vote numbers look similar to the ref result – 55 – 45, so isn’t another ref still touch and go and should we be trying to avoid another 50/50 split type decision?
Suggesting that all Yes voters only vote SNP and/or Green is too simplistic. The GE also excluded 16-17 year olds and EU nationals.
As I said on the GE thread, as an English Conservative voter I can't understand why Westminster won't give the Scots their referendum as soon as possible. We are leaving the EU, but it isn't what most Scots want and by forcing them to leave with us seems unfair. It also allows Westminster to begin trying (heavy emphasis on trying) to heal the country and move forward rather than staying in this terrible state we have been in. The UK is already split by Brexit, it doesn't need dividing by English/Scottish relations too. I would personally like the Scots to stay, but this is based on friends and tourism, not economy. But, if Scotland wants to leave it is their choice and genuinely good luck to them. I personally predict it will make them worse off, but I accept it is their choice to make. Either way, it is a win win for Westminster. If Scotland vote to stay, it definitively puts the question to bed, and we can try to build a better and even closer relationship post Brexit. Boris would legitimately be able to claim he had been democratic and heal the division (unless of course Nicola wants a third one again by 2025). If they vote to leave, also a win. The Scots are happy and I'm fairly certain the English will be financially better off (Barnet formula etc). This could benefit the Tories as they could reallocate the money sent to Scotland to all the areas of England, Wales and NI helping their new potentially temporary supporters (especially in the North of England and Wales). Besides, even if they did leave the UK, I think we would still have good relations and no hard border. Just like leaving the EU, it is in both sides interests to keep relations cordial and trade going - so that is what will happen. So, overall indyref2 actually benefits all sides involved and should in theory benefit us all.
