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"Nicola Sturgeon has also revealed her plan C. If this referendum doesn't happen, she'll fight the next UK election on the single issue of independence." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61968607
What is she saying?
a) There's only one issue for the Scottish people
b) I've tried to sort health, education, etc out for years, failed and I don't have any ideas left
c) I want to chuck it in; it's easier to get elected to power than it is to run a country (see b above)
Given that every law expert I've read has said that this is not going to go anywhere, and because Sturgeon has suggested that if the decisions doesn't go the way she wants then she'll campaign on independence in the next election...I can't see that this is anything other than the SNP gearing up for the next election. This seems to serve two purposes. 1. to make the claim to supporters that they're trying every angle (even the ones they know aren't going anywhere) and 2. Make Labour's job in any upcoming election even harder.
Sturgeon has said all along that the vote to become independent has got to be "legally valid and internationally recognised" re-entry to the EU would clearly be 'problematic' otherwise. This isn't going to get her any closer to Section 30 - by her own admission the 'gold standard'
A hung parliament at Westminster with a huge SNP block might be perfect for Sturgeon - and potentially foreseeable.
The single issue will be to ensure the largest block by splitting the pro-union vote between Con, LibDem and Lab.
Then negotiate from there. Possibly a federal UK arrangement now with Holyrood having the legal right to call referendums in the future, but agreeing not to use it for Westminster parliament.
Wouldn’t have helped in the Con-DUP arrangement because it was Tories and the numbers were small, but Labour and slightly bigger numbers.
That help as a potential game plan?
That seems likely igm. It's never straightforward these days is it?
Yes, I think so, I think the SNP are resigned to Johnson saying no, but the block support of the SNP to enable Labour to get into power with the promise of a section 30 after the next GE. That I can see.
the SNP have an independence war, it’s still government by opulist division
You do realise that independence isn’t a new SNP policy, don’t you? Populism or not, it’s been a long term stated aim of the party, they’re just attempting to achieve what they’ve told their voters they want to achieve when they asked for their vote. It’s not a manufactured division, it’s a long established core policy.
What I'm says makes sense to me.
I sometimes feel that she doesn't want independence and is using the threat as leverage
I think the idea ( tho its reasonably widely held) that Sturgeon does not want independence but is mendacious in her motvations is daft.
She is elected on a platform of seeking independence and has a majority of msps and scots mps withher. Thats a democratic manadte to hold another referendum
A democratic mandate is not, rightly or wrongly, a legal one.
Sturgeon is threatening this, and leveraging that, the best she can to align the democratic and legal mandates.
Then and only then does she get the independence she wants I think. And probably not just the referendum because when those two align the referendum probably sails through (or the democratic mandate failed at that point).
piemonster
Free MemberErtrea is one
Not the best example, can we have one where press freedom isnt ranked lower than North Korea.
Probably the one example the SNP won't want being made about their plans 😂
piemonster Free Member
Im also not convinced the timing isnt simply down to internal SNP politics.
There does seem to have been mutterings to that effect - on this thread, at least. Sturgeon seems to be a cautious incrementalist in her approach to independence, wanting the conditions to be right and for a yes vote to be all but a certainty, but it sounds like there's a lot of pressure from the more radical side of the SNP to secure independence sooner than she thinks is possible.
Sturgeon's calculation may be that even if she doesn't secure a referendum this plan will satisfy enough of the radicals that she is doing her best to get one and so she will keep a lid on the factional divides with the SNP for a while longer.
Sturgeon does not want independence but is mendacious in her motvations is daft.
She is elected on a platform of seeking independence and has a majority of msps and scots mps withher. Thats a democratic manadte to hold another referendum
Whether she wants one or not, she was elected on a mandate to make one happen
Sturgeon’s calculation may be that even if she doesn’t secure a referendum this plan will satisfy enough of the radicals that she is doing her best to get one and so she will keep a lid on the factional divides with the SNP for a while longer.
Not a chance. She has used a lot of political capital delaying the vote this long. I think if there is no referendum by the date set she will be ousted.
There's something going on, it just seems a bad time to be aiming for a vote, so much going on in the world, a general election will be looming in 2024, the current recession/inflation/abject misery issues and so on, i'd have thought 2025 would be a good year, if the tories get back in or a hung parliament.
But to be fair, the other side of the argument is that the longer the SNP are the party in government for Scotland, the more it will just affect their chances, people rarely remember the good, so all the negativity of the SNP/Greens will be used against them, 2014 really was their year to do it, but the reality is that a lot of people fear change and learn to accept the current climate.
so much going on in the world
And so much going on in the UK. And between UK and the RoW. The "be quiet and let the UK government handle this mess for you" isn't a great argument for people who might think the UK government are going to keep making things worse rather than better.
2014 was a world away, pre brexit, pre the Tories shift further to the right, Cameron was way more popular in Scotland than Johnson is, I'd say SNPs best hope is that Johnson limps on to lead the No campaign!
The Tories are an English Nationalist party under Johnson.
There’s something going on, it just seems a bad time to be aiming for a vote, so much going on in the world, a general election will be looming in 2024, the current recession/inflation/abject misery issues and so on, i’d have thought 2025 would be a good year, if the tories get back in or a hung parliament.
2025 a good year for what?
I dont think theres going to be a good year in the next decade so not much point waiting for one
The UK government is undoubtedly making a serious mess of thjngs, Scottish independence will be an order of magnitude worse for Scotland at least, it won't be great for the rest of the UK either as we all wade through an acrimonious break up and spend who knows how much time and effort on procedural stuff rather than dealing with the real and present crisis facing us all. Bit like a Brexit a completely avoidable own goal.
rather than dealing with the real and present crisis facing us all. Bit like a Brexit
The way I see it is if we remain in the UK we are in for a lot more of the same,rather than adding to our woes independence is the only chance we have to start dealing with our problems
A huge issue is negotiating with a UK gov that uses the current playbook. Pretty much like about what you're willing to do then go back on it anyway.
the only chance we have to start dealing with our problems
Specifically what?
For a start we can begin negotiations with the EU/EFTA/EEA on a basis of trust rather than spite.
A huge issue is negotiating with a UK gov that uses the current playbook. Pretty much like about what you’re willing to do then go back on it anyway.
That's an issue for any country negotiating with UK now!
The SNP at least have a solid example of how not to go about negotiations- the years of political turmoil since 2016 are mostly down to the Brexiteers complete absence of any sort of plan for what to do if they won- not helped by promising a different Brexit to everyone that voted for it!
I'm still in the fence as to whether or not I'd vote for it if I lived there, but I kind of hope for a yes vote in some ways. It would stir things up, which needs to happen.
Then maybe Wales would follow with the promise of a Scottish/Welsh and maybe even Irish cooperation.
Then maybe Wales would follow with the promise of a Scottish/Welsh and maybe even Irish cooperation.
Christ i hope not, could you imagine the carnage that would have around areas such as the southeast of Wales, most of those places like Caldicot, Chepstow, Newport and so on are commuting towns to Bristol for a lot of people, the Welsh border as well is way more erratic than the Scottish border.
Would i need to take my passport on rides in Staunton as well, where i'd be crossing the border several times, especially as the good stuff is all on the Welsh side 😁
most of those places like Caldicot, Chepstow, Newport and so on are commuting towns to Bristol for a lot of people
Yeah that's the kind of think I was trying to point out earlier 🙂 Not to mention the huge number of people in Cardiff working in call centres for English based companies!
Which is also an issue for Scotland too I think - a significant part of the GDP numbers from Scotland must be from Scottish workers for UK-wide companies, most of whose customers are in England.
Companies are multinational shock!
Lots of folk work for companies, even call centres, that serve other countries.
The IT desk that serves our computer used to be in India, though bizarrely since Brexit it’s now in Poland.
the only chance we have to start dealing with our problems
Specifically what?
Oh I dunno, the little things destroying people's lights across the country which get put even further back on the burner whilst Nicolas vanity project takes 20 diastrous years to implement.
Cost of living
Housing shortages
Crisis in the NHS
Mental health issues
Global warming / going carbon neutral
Social care meltdown
You know all the little everyday things.
What the SNP want to do is the equivalent of the regular structural changes in the NHS which suck up resource and fail to tackle the underlying issues.
Which is also an issue for Scotland too I think – a significant part of the GDP numbers from Scotland must be from Scottish workers for UK-wide companies, most of whose customers are in England
This sort of thing is taken into account in GERS figures. I am not sure what you base this on anyway and there would also be some effects that would work in Scotland's favour
The Scotland England border is not crossed by many roads unlike NI or Wales and any rational separation agreement would surely include a common travel area as with Ireland
Of course iScotland would eventually need a "hard" border to be a part of the single market but with a common travel area careful planning issues could be minimised
I think immediate EU membership is both needed and a priority and i expect this time around the Scots government to ask the EU for guidance beforehand and they will get an answer. Last time the EU were constitutionally bound not to answer unless asked by Westminster ( who refused to do so) but post Brexit this no longer applies
I see no insurmountable obstacles. The EU has shown in the past flexibility with rules around the Euro and imo using the euro is the only sesible option although that decision is for a future government of iScotland
Politically the EU would love an independent Scotland as a member and we have a lot to share.
Stumpy. Most of that list is budget limited. One issue with now is Holyrood cannot decide total budget only spending priorities so invest in health and the have less to spend on education.
Other things on that list are ouwith the powers of Holyrood. An independent Scotland would be able to do things like cut vat to help fuel costs
Politically the EU would love an independent Scotland as a member and we have a lot to share.
Huge number of historical ties between Scotland and France & the Low Countries I suppose.
Christ i hope not, could you imagine the carnage that would have around areas such as the southeast of Wales, most of those places like Caldicot, Chepstow, Newport and so on are commuting towns to Bristol for a lot of people, the Welsh border as well is way more erratic than the Scottish border.
Cross border commuting/travel doesn't have to be an issue, only if a country 'decides' to make it an issue. The UK-IE common travel area works fine, so there's a basis to work on - let's call it a 'negotiation'. And in/out the EU works fine for Switzerland and France/Germany/Austria/Italy.
The SNP have utterly failed to prove they can run a country. I realise the ref is not about the SNP but if we did get Indy it would be these same lightweights trying to run a country but without the common goal that unites them.
I like the idea of Indy Scotland but I think its because I dream of it being the land of milk and honey, much like Brexiteers believed leaving the EU would make the UK great again.
My other concern is people talk as if we are different up here to those south of the border, this is total nonsense, most of us are related to people down south and like anywhere there are a vast range of views and ideologies round the country. Are we really as anti tory as people believe?
The SNP are a broad church united around 1 thing, Indy. There are people from the left and the right people pro and against the EU united with one goal. Once they have achieved that goal and especially if we end up poorer will the selfishness of people come out?
Indy is a massive risk and one at the moment I do not think I am willing to take. I do change my mind though and will be willing to listen to the arguements but at the moment it is a no from me.
Companies are multinational shock!
I appreciate that (I work for one) - what I'm saying is that it's an issue that would need sorting out. And, as we have seen, whilst there may well be good solutions to the issue, we aren't necessarily going to actually get those good solutions. Specifically, if Scotland were to join the EU then that would automatically impose a hard border and you may well end up with English companies withdrawing from Scotland for the same reasons that EU companies are withdrawing people from the UK now.
And in/out the EU works fine for Switzerland and France/Germany/Austria/Italy.
Yes, it does, but bear in mind that's grown up over centuries - the context in the break-up of the UK would be quite different. Don't assume it would be that easy.
@molgrips - apologies, wasn’t meant to be sarcastic, but reading it back it does read that way.
I point is really that business has always coped with that sort of thing really well. Trade and the freedom to work where you want to work, the restrictions that countries impose on the common man or woman as you travel from one patch of land to another, that is the more difficult issue. And common travel areas don’t really sort that.
@stumpyjon The current set up doesn't allow the Scottish Government to do much about the cost of living crisis which has been exacerbated by the UK government through brexit. As regards the NHS, Mental Health and Social Care I would argue that there are structural issues with the way we live that make us unhealthy which need to be addressed. Let's prevent the problem rather than solve the issues the problem creates
Social care in particular also requires a huge pay rise.
None of our governments are anywhere near addressing those issues although at least the Scottish government is beginning to talk about the wellbeing economy rather than measuring our economy by gdp alone.
I point is really that business has always coped with that sort of thing really well.
Hmm, I wouldn't say it was always the case. Off-shoring became very popular in the 2000s but then there was a lot of on-shoring happening as people found the limitations of that model. And of course, that evolved around the trading arrangements already in place. In the case of iS it would be like Brexit i.e. a sudden and dramatic change to existing relationships. Of course it would be possible to make arrangements that would work, but that usually happens when two sides are working for a mutual goal and are both happy about it. In the case of iS, as in Brexit, this wouldn't be the case.
In fact I think that Brexit is the closest thing we have to a precedent for iS.
The SNP have been relativly competent in government and have taken what steps they are able to to alleviate poverty. Its unlikely imo that the government of a future iScotland would of the snp alone. There willl be a political realignment imo.
Id rather Holyrood over Westminster for competence and democracy
The SNP have been relativly competent in government
Their record on education is woeful. Ferries?
Just because they are less worse than the current bunch of fools in westminster does not make them good. They manage to hide behind the fact that westminster as been totally consumed by Brexit resulting in the worst government in modern times.
Holyrood may be more democratic, but would the SNP work with Labour/Libdem to bring in proportional representation into Westminster? I very much doubt they would because it would be worse for them as a party despite being better for the UK as a whole.
My other concern is people talk as if we are different up here to those south of the border
My other concern is people talk as if we are different up here to those south of the border
Whatever age you are, social, education and public health provisions for you are greater north of the border. Where we keep rolling back the welfare state in England... acting as if it is something used by the undeserving and that is unaffordable... Scotland has voted to keep it in place, for more people... showing that they understand it is for everyone.
but would the SNP work with Labour/Libdem to bring in proportional representation into Westminster?
If that cooperation also enabled a UK government approved vote on Scottish independence, backed with an agreement to respect the result and build a new relationship if the vote goes against the Union? You'd think so.
And that map shows I one picture why a second (technically third I think) referendum on Scots independence is not unreasonable.
Whatever my personal inclination against independence is.
The map picture is slightly misleading to be fair. 38% of voters voted to leave the EU which is not an insignificant number. I do not believe we are as different as people like to think.
If that cooperation also enabled a UK government approved vote on Scottish independence, backed with an agreement to respect the result and build a new relationship if the vote goes against the Union? You’d think so
Possibly yes.
And that map shows I one picture why a second (technically third I think) referendum on Scots independence is not unreasonable.
Second.
I very much doubt they would because it would be worse for them as a party despite being better for the UK as a whole.
Evidence? I think you’d have a better argument if the minority parties didn’t behave like regional offices of Westminster rather than genuinely interested in the needs of Scotland. Still waiting for them to make a positive case for the Union.
The map is disingenuous. Almost all constituencies across the UK were pretty much within 60/40 either way, including Scotland. So the difference in Scotland is quite small and I suspect there's a lot of detail lurking in those demographics.
Many SNP members will remember being fooled by Labour over the 79devolution referendum, where the 40%rule meant those who died but remained on the electoral roll voted against devolution.
There would need to be clear evidence that Labour has changed, something I don't see at this point.
tjagain Full Member
The Scotland England border is not crossed by many roads unlike NI or Wales and any rational separation agreement would surely include a common travel area as with Ireland
Of course we have seen nothing but rationality from the UK government when it has recently negotiated similar agreements, haven't we?
Obviously this is hardly a good argument for remaining in the UK but it is also a risk involved in leaving it too.
Not sure that makes the map disingenuous molgrips.
Possibly quite the reverse if you are correct, as Scotland’s opinion would be exactly the opposite of England with the exception of London and bits of the Home Counties (?).
Of course we have seen nothing but rationality from the UK government when it has recently negotiated similar agreements, haven’t we?
Fair point... but the UK government hasn't ended the common travel with Ireland, despite all the talk of "controlling our borders"... so there is some precedent for rationality on the movement of people within the British Isles. It would preclude Scotland joining Schengen though, same as it does for all of Ireland, of course.
@cultsdave - molgrips has answered your point about differences across the UK really well. It's not that those on each side of the border are so diametrically opposed, it's just that the majority swings slightly different. I'd expect that to be the case post-Indy too, with even a resurgence of some sort of right-wing party that might, or might not, be a Scottish Conservative Party.
I think there are a few policies that do mark a change of direction from the UK though and show that there might be a slightly different social feel to politics in Scotland. Baby boxes, the desire to change drug policy, free prescriptions, the proposed National Care Service would all fall into that category. Minimum Alcohol Pricing and the earlier introduction of the "smoking ban" might be others. Even the income tax differential looks like something that would struggle to be accepted across the rest of the UK.
FWIW anyone paying attention would know that I'm no fan of Nicola Sturgeons SNP. I look at the stalling of Land Reform, the waste of money on Cairngorm Mountain and the absolute shitshow surrounding the ferries and it looks to me that they're still a long way from getting everything right.
The map makes it look like everyone in Scotland is overwhelmingly pro EU and that's evidence for Scotland being a completely different place. Whereas in fact the shift in sentiment was fairly small, it just happened to be either side of the 50% mark.
62:38 is not just one side of 50% - it’s just off 2:1 supermajority territory.
PS the map also looks a bit like an inverted Ukrainian flag. Don’t think there’s any hidden meaning.
Molgrips is Donald Trump and I claim my £5...
The map makes it look like everyone in Scotland is overwhelmingly pro EU
No it doesn't. Well, it might to primary school kids. What it shows is that in all the administrative areas of Scotland the vote went against leaving the EU. So support for staying in the EU was widespread.
Whereas in fact the shift in sentiment was fairly small, it just happened to be either side of the 50% mark.
That's just disingenuous. All binary results are "either side" of the 50% mark, you're using that language to suggest the result was close in Scotland. It was not.
It was bloody close in Moray. Only 122 votes (0.2%) separated Remain from Leave. Possibly due to the military influence in the area?
Stumpy. Most of that list is budget limited. One issue with now is Holyrood cannot decide total budget only spending priorities so invest in health and the have less to spend on education.
My point was more the UK in general needs to deal with stuff now, not just Scotland. The break up will suck vital resources and money out of the economy to sort the bureaucracy which could be invested in sorting real problems now. I also appreciate devolved powers are restricted but funnily enough the SNP is also part of the UK national parliament. Personally I don't buy it'll all be better if we have complete control because complete control is a fantasy (see Brexit).
I just think the idea of independence for Scotland is misguided and not only won't improve things, it'll make it worse for everyone.
Caveat to the above, I fully understand why Scots may be heartily sick of the Westminster parliament, they are not alone but to repeat what was said above there's not a lot of deep differences between any of the people on the UK mainland.
be invested in sorting real problems now
That presumes that the UK government isn't going to keep creating new problems that it then claims only it can deal with, in order to retain and increase the power/control it has (both by staying in government, and by rolling back devolution).
to repeat what was said above there’s not a lot of deep differences between any of the people on the UK mainland.
But there are enough that are already making a difference to daily life for many of the folk in Scotland. You are suggesting holding on within the UK waiting for something to get better and yet a quick perusal of the SKS thread on here shows that isn't likely to happen for a very, very long time. I'd like to improve things for my daughter so that wait isn't acceptable to me. Show me some evidence to the contrary and I might change my mind.
There is also the possibility that the departure of Scotland could shake things up in rUK enough to make a difference too.
Can I add immigration policy to the lists of things on which Scotland has a different view.
Whatever age you are, social, education and public health provisions for you are greater north of the border. Where we keep rolling back the welfare state in England… acting as if it is something used by the undeserving and that is unaffordable… Scotland has voted to keep it in place, for more people… showing that they understand it is for everyone.
Where's all this money going to come from that the SNP can supposedly divert to health, welfare, housing, etc., once Scotland becomes independent?
Don't say oil. This isn't 1980 anymore.
It really isn't a problem. Education, public health and social funding improves the country and the economy for all.
there might be a slightly different social feel to politics in Scotland.
I agree with this with a few caveats. In England, the majority also believe in that kind of social policy. Everyone would love free prescriptions, more NHS funding and the rest of it.
However Tories are adept at misdirecting people and removing focus from these things. And also very good at campaigning against people who'd give them those things, based on lies and insinuation. Remove the Tories from the equation, and suddenly these things can happen.
The nationalist ticket and I guess also national identity (rather than independence) has allowed SNP to essentially make a break with the ****ed up English situation. They're the middle party that so many people in England have been clamouring for. In fact a quick look at the proportionally elected Scottish Parliament makes me think that's what the UK parliament would look like if we had effective representation.
The Senedd is strongly Labour, yes because of the industrial heritage but also in part, I think, because the Welsh independence ticket is nowhere near as realistic as the Scottish one and people understand that. Including PC themselves, but it still undermines their position.
Agree with a lot of that... but.... a question: why haven't the Tories "fooled" a similar percentage of people in Scotland when it comes to the FPTP Westminster elections?
why haven’t the Tories “fooled” a similar percentage of people in Scotland when it comes to the FPTP Westminster elections?
Well I'm speculating now but I think it's because of identity - because Toryism is so associated with Englishness it's easier to reduce their credibility. People vote on sentiment and feelings, don't they? Not policy.
The map picture is slightly misleading to be fair. 38% of voters voted to leave the EU which is not an insignificant number. I do not believe we are as different as people like to think.
Mate I've news for you, 48% is apparently an "insignificant number", so only 38% is FA.
Whatever age you are, social, education and public health provisions for you are greater north of the border. Where we keep rolling back the welfare state in England… acting as if it is something used by the undeserving and that is unaffordable… Scotland has voted to keep it in place, for more people… showing that they understand it is for everyone.
This.
And those who are going to vote No, be aware what you're voting for - remember, Brexit isn't the destination it's the vehicle.
Roe vs Wade? That'll be another stop on the way to our destination if you vote No, along with a dismantling of free-at-use healthcare and all manner of other 'goodies'.
All due respect, but when you promise that spending (and by implication borrowing) even more money isn't a problem I'd like to see the figures. The UK is already currently borrowing at near-record levels.
Where we keep rolling back the welfare state in England… acting as if it is something used by the undeserving and that is unaffordable…
Yes, and the actual people in England don't want this. But they somehow keep voting for Tories anyway despite that. That's their great trick, they convince people to vote against their own best interests.
Where’s all this money going to come from that the SNP can supposedly divert to health, welfare, housing, etc., once Scotland becomes independent?
I'm curious as to the root of your vitriol.
Presumably you're English? Are you anti an independent Scotland because you'd simply hate for Scottish living standards to be reduced? Or, because it's somehow 'right' for Scotland to be (effectively) governed by England?
Don’t say oil. This isn’t 1980 anymore.
Wind, tidal and hydro power for starters. Things like hydrogen production become a lot easier/cheaper when you have a surfeit of energy and water. The Scottish Government would have investment-raising powers to encourage foreign investment, which then encourages investment in other industries - kinda like an energy and industrial strategy the UK Government has been promising for at least 2 decades…
Or, because it’s somehow ‘right’ for Scotland to be (effectively) governed by England?
'Effectively' - in other words not actually.
Why is it pie in the sky? Are you saying those things won't provide an income?
Pies without number in the sky....Aye but wait till you see the size of the seagulls
An income could be £1 to the treasury. What sort of income are you projecting?
It's fairly simple. If you are arguing for independence then you need to provide a detailed budget covering the next 50 years. If you are arguing against then some vague words about "strength of the Union" are more than adequate.
For some folk, the union is simply indivisible. It's one UK now and nothing can change that. Nothing you can say will persuade them of a case for Scottish independence so it's not worth debating them.
I also came to the conclusion previously that there is no value in trying to persuade someone who wouldn't have a vote in the referendum.
That's not to say that there is no value in debate. Many of the same arguments will be put forward by folk who DO have a vote and it helps to understand their position and, possibly, how to change their minds.
I'm not projecting any amount yet. I will look at the numbers when/if they become available. In the meantime, I will consider relevant arguements for and against. What do you think they will provide and what do you think will be required? And why?
@scotroutes, I think you may have nailed it there.
Or, because it’s somehow ‘right’ for Scotland to be (effectively) governed by England?
Ugh, that bollocks again. When we had a Scottish PM was that wrong? All parts of the UK are governed to some extent by Westminster, which is full of MPs from all over the UK. And we all live in the UK.
Nationalism is bullshit, I'll say it again.
See