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tjagain
Full Member
She has to have something concrete to follow for a referendum or she is toast politically. See scotroutes sceptism above
It's happening, one way or the other TJ. She's just played a blinder here.
It's a question of democracy, and the question will be asked.
Why does she/everyone call it the 2nd independence referendum? Is it not the 3rd?
gauss1777
Free Member
Why does she/everyone call it the 2nd independence referendum? Is it not the 3rd?
Guessing you mean 4th, but no, '79 and '97 were devolution referendums.
Ah, ta
Debate in Scottish parliament tonight about drug deaths has been postponed . It would be nice if over the next year the SNP also remember there is a day job .
Debate in Scottish parliament tonight about drug deaths has been postponed . It would be nice if over the next year the SNP also remember there is a day job
A bit like the tories have been doing since, what, 2016 or so?
Seems like a vote on independence is happening one way or the other.
Douglas Ross says he's not going to take part. I'm sure his loss will be deeply felt by one of the sides.
So it’s a consultative referendum. Those anti- independence won’t vote. Turnout will therefore be below 50%. UK government will say result is invalid. Sturgeon can say she tried. Win-win.
Every referendum held in the UK is consultative, including Brexit.
imnotverygood
Free Member
So it’s a consultative referendum.
Seems highly unlikely there will be a referendum tbh.
Constitutional and democratic crisis anyone...
imnotverygood
Free Member
Sturgeon can say she tried.
She's going to do more than try.
YES.
FWIW Chris McEleny proposed this approach at the SNP conference 3 years ago and was booed for it, with various reasons given as to why it wouldn't work.
Well that was a surprise there's actually a good bit of substance in that, decision referred to the Supreme Court now instead of dillydallying, single issue election. I suspect the unionists will still talk about the process and not the substantive issue. Over all I feel like I was expecting to get spam but have been given a couple of slices of gammon.
I'm pretty sure I proposed the same thing on here three years ago and you all booed me and gave me various reasons why it wouldn't work 🙂
I've suggested it too but neither you nor I were at the SNP conference proposing it 🙂
In Nicola says it then it becomes the truth.
The focus on personalities rather than policy has been a bad thing for the independence campaign. I was kind of nervous about all those photo ops of "Nicola" with big crowds etc and I don't believe that "Eck" is the King in waiting either. The top down approach and a lack of internal democracy may well have considerably reduced the SNP's greatest strength- its activists to a stump of what it was. So if they look to the wider indy movement for support in campaigning they may well find that movement split, tired and wary of being taken for a fool.
I think if it goes to a single issue election, she might have it.
The PR maths make it difficult for me to tell, but if all the other major parties split the pro-union vote, she’ll clean up the individual seats and still might do ok on the lists.
And it would be single issue - the media would ensure that.
And the pro-union parties can’t not play.
Interesting.
My parents are sadly rather Tory and firm Telegraph readers. They definitely seem to use "Nicola" as a focus for all that ails Scotland and any failings (true or otherwise) of the Scottish government. So it would seem that the particular visibility of Nicola Sturgeon has become a useful tool for the SNP's unionist opponents at least.
But, but, but, Douglas Ross said prior to the last election that a vote for the SNP was a vote for independence anyway!
igm
Full Member
I think if it goes to a single issue election, she might have it.
The PR maths make it difficult for me to tell, but if all the other major parties split the pro-union vote, she’ll clean up the individual seats and still might do ok on the lists.
And it would be single issue – the media would ensure that.
And the pro-union parties can’t not play.Interesting.
Think she's talking fighting the westminster election on the single issue basis.
Which if she wins, will potentially lead to things like abstentionism, or just straight up causing havoc in the halls of westminster. Not sure how that gets played.
Talking straight up fight with the UK gov anyway, which makes sense, as if the UK gov denys the bill the scottish parliament puts forward, then that parliament is no longer legitimate. The democratic options begin to narrow quite quickly and we're heading straight heading towards a real democratic and constitutional crisis.
Debate in Scottish parliament tonight about drug deaths has been postponed . It would be nice if over the next year the SNP also remember there is a day job .
A debate that would result in no action either way because drug policy is under the control of Westminster
The democratic options begin to narrow quite quickly and we’re heading straight heading towards a real democratic and constitutional crisis.
Im pretty sure that the SNP would rather have it that way
Westminster chucking its weight around is an indy vote winner, especially with Johnson in charge(interesting to see what happens when/if Johnson goes though)
when/if Johnson goes
The Tories will adopt someone more Brexy and less attractive to the Scots.
Yes any new leader will have to go MAXIMUM BREXIT!! to get elected by the membership (see Truss)
Every referendum held in the UK is consultative, including Brexit.
Proper referenda are overseen by the electoral commission and need an act of Parliament. They are only 'advisory' in the sense that Parliament cannot bind itself.
A wildcat 'referendum' in Scotland would have the legal status of a Gallup opinion poll.
Personally, I believe that indyrefs should be a once-in-a-generation matter only. Westminster can just shut down Hollrood if they start to behave as Catalonia did in 2017.
Turning the indyref into a de facto referendum on Boris and Brexit is a cynical tactic.
I think if it goes to a single issue election, she might have it.
There is no such thing as a single-issue election.
Turning the indyref into a de facto referendum on Boris and Brexit is a cynical tactic.
cynical tactic you say?
Using EU membership in the No campaign is why the SNP are getting a second bite at the cherry
And even if they hadnt youre very naive if you think it wont be a factor for years to come in all kinds of debates & elections
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1541792577082605568
And if you think that having serial liar, law breaker, corrupt egomaniac Johnson squatting in No 10 isnt going to be an indyref asset.... then I have (garden) bridge to sell you
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating?crossBreak=scotland
I really think the prospect of No/Better Together winning another referendum are vastly underpriced. For all the talk and clamour for independence, Yes is still hovering around the 50% mark (possibly less now). Even wee Ruthie said they need to be polling around 60% to get it over the line, and they aren't. A dreadful dreadful Westminster government, Johnson at the helm, a brexit disaster and shrivelling economy, appalling treatment of refugees, all the talk of ECHR withdrawal etc etc etc yet still only 50%. It's hard to see where the numbers come from now, barring some hitherto unimaginable tory ghastliness appearing. And to be honest, I would expect support to soften with the slightest wiff of a Labour government.
I'm not saying it's unwinnable for yes, far from it. The polling before the 2014 referendum was way lower than the final result but the last few percent seems incredibly difficult to persuade.
Britons continue to think that Brexit is going badly
Going well: 16%
Going badly: 54%
Neither: 20%
That 54% is for the whole of the UK... it's 68% for Scotland.
Who knows if an Indie Scotland would join the EU... my money would be on them not doing so for a long time, if at all, but joining in on other collaborations that include freeing up trade and people. But whatever happens, the turmoil of the last 6 years (and the 6 to come) is a negative for union sentiment... even those who wouldn't want Scotland to rejoin the EU won't be thanking the UK government for the manner of our leaving, and its effects on Scotland.
I think that’s it. Brexit has persuaded many innately pro-union Scots that the Union with England (and it is particularly England, when you consider the NI position and the general ethnicity of Brexy voters in Wales) is a millstone round Scotland’s neck.
Now that may or may not be true, but the present rabble at Westminster do themselves very few favours.
Youre very much missing the point
(Johnson's hard) Brexit made indyref2 inevitible & its made a Yes vote more likely, on top of that Johnsons corruption is the gift that just keeps on giving for the indy cause
If you voted for either Johnson or Brexit and didnt think this was a likely outcome, well.....
It may have made the SNP want to hold another indyref, but, despite the appeal to the supreme court, it looks unlikely that they will be able to hold one that is recognised by Westminster.
That puts them in the same situation as Catalonia in 2017.
That puts them in the same situation as Catalonia in 2017.
I think the SNP would absolutely love to see wetsminster try & resolve that the same way
despite the appeal to the supreme court, it looks unlikely that they will be able to hold one that is recognised by Westminster
Do remember that what the law says you have a right to do and what politics enables you to strongarm folk into allowing you to do are not the same thing.
I doubt she cares if she wins at the Supreme Court.
I doubt she cares if she win at the Supreme Court.
I reckon she'd love it if the High Court down in London court dictates to the scotish parliament that theyre not allwoed another ref
it looks unlikely that they will be able to hold one that is recognised by Westminster
If it is deemed to be legal then that's all that matters.
scotroutes
Full Member
it looks unlikely that they will be able to hold one that is recognised by WestminsterIf it is deemed to be legal then that’s all that matters.
If it's deemed illegal, that matters more.
Either way, it's a position that needs to be resolved.
Defo. will be fun and games.
It might not be resolvable. The court might say that holding a poll is a political not legal decision, and not rule on it, leading to all other parties refusing to get involved in campaigning or voting. The matter of it being for Westminster to enact independence will still be a legal matter though. That is... the government in Scotland could hold a poll the result of which means nothing to the UK Government that can legally just ignore it. And then it becomes "the will of the Scottish people" pitted against what is legal... good job that the UK government isn't seeking to undermine that balance of law versus claimed political mandate, isn't it...
The scot gov won't hold a poll that isn't legal, do not pass go, straight to General election. Then let the fun and games commence after that.
Same scenario really... the UK government can ignore any "single issue" election in Scotland, legally. It doesn't have to listen to "the will of the Scottish people", no matter how it is measured or shown. And then what...? That's where the real battle between law and Scottish democracy begins... it's a good job that this UK government isn't setting a political precedent by trying to get around pesky laws and courts where they claim they are a block on what they want to do based on their own (less clear) democratic mandate...
It doesn't have to, but it's not really a good look for a democratic country.
This is about us having our say. What will be will be afterwards.
Shaping international opinion is also important. The pro-indy movement needs to show that all constitutional measures have been taken to secure a poll.
Ha ha ha **** you Boris!
Shaping international opinion is also important. The pro-indy movement needs to show that all constitutional measures have been taken to secure a poll.
Absolutely nobody (except maybe Russia) is going to get behind Scotland on a questionable referendum. Many countries, such as Spain, for example, have their own 'problem' regions and they have no wish to greenlight secession. 2014 is very recent in the grand scheme of things.
2014 is before the great divide.
Politically a lifetime ago.
#BrexitBrokeBritain (arguably)
Lots of things broke Britain, and still breaking Britain (and many more nations), if Scotland get independence based on Brexit then it'll not be a great outcome for them!
It's also going to be nearly 18 months from now, so a lot will happen in that time, so way too early to be pinning their campaign on any one thing, or being able to understand who to aim their campaign at to get over the line.
It doesn’t have to, but it’s not really a good look for a democratic country.
Indeed. But England holding Scotland in the Union against its will is very likely. I fear the UK government will claim that is democratic, even if nearly every Scottish MP in the UK parliament is pro independence, and the Scottish government is pro independence, and a public vote in Scotland goes in favour of independence. No logic or fairness in that, but that is how it might be. It’s going to be messy.
It’s also going to be nearly 18 months from now, so a lot will happen in that time, so way too early to be pinning their campaign on any one thing, or being able to understand who to aim their campaign at to get over the line.
I for one, dread another 18 months of bickering in the lead up to another vote. I’d be happier if we just voted next week. Since nobody on this thread appears to have changed their position in the 6 years since the thread was started, we may as well get it over with.
Since nobody on this thread appears to have changed their position in the 6 years since the thread was started
There's a few on this thread who have changed their minds.
and a public vote in Scotland goes in favour of independence.
Without Westminster approval, any referendum will be like the 2017 Catalan vote which nobody recognised as legitimate. It will just be a pro-independence government holding a dodgy and illegal plebiscite which nobody who was against independence wanted to legitimise by participating in.
Spain isn’t a union of nations.
Nor is the UK, it's one united kingdom, clue is in the name.
Yes, the UK isn't a federation. It's a unitary sovereign country.
Well, if you’re taking this thread down the “Scotland is not a country” route, I’ll sit it out, ta.
Or like eritrea ?
Since nobody on this thread appears to have changed their position in the 6 years since the thread was started, we may as well get it over with.
Confirmation bias I suspect....
As I have previously posted, I have. I'm not the only one either.
Scotland is a country but the UK isn't a collection of countries that handed power upward to a higher legislative body, e.g., the United States. Instead, the Acts of Union created the British Parliament which hands power down (partially in the case of the devolved assemblies).
We'll find out soon enough.
kelvin
Full Member
It doesn’t have to, but it’s not really a good look for a democratic country.Indeed. But England holding Scotland in the Union against its will is very likely.
It's likely they'll try, but it's unsustainable long term.
Little matter of determining the will of the people on the matter first though.
In the meantime, I guess people can continually tell us, we can't do it.
If you think Brexit was chaotic and caused uncertainty, Scottish independence will be that on steroids. A Scottish government may not even be able to borrow money.
Didn’t Brexit teach you anything?
You may or may not be right, but Brexit has been so bad for people who had a more outward optimistic view of the world that almost any pain to be shot of it would be ok for them.
Incidentally, my opinion hasn’t changed I still like countries from a cultural point of view, but dislike them in most other ways.
The cultural side represents part of who I am - the science and engineering of Watt, Kelvin, Dunlop, Fleming, Baird and Bell, the literature of Burns, Stevenson, Banks, Rankin and many others, the seafood, and oatmeal cookery, a drop of malt, and even our other national drink. And yes, my York born and raised son just picked up a kilt for his school prom / dance.
But the rest is about restrictions on my freedom - where I can live or work - and limits on our economy - fundamentally big economies just work better.
So do I want Scots independence? Not really, but I can easily understand those who do.
Did I want Brexit? No, I’d have been very happy with a federal Europe if we could have transformed the EU trading club into one. Wasn’t federal enough though in 2016. Needed more.
We're off this time! Wait until you see! Good riddance!
Brexit has been bad but it's definitely not been a disaster. How outward and optimistic I am is my own business TBH. The symbolic matter of being in a trade bloc isn't much to me.
If given a choice I'd have us rejoin, of course.
@waderider - is 'getting one over' on the English a sound reason for massive political and economic upheaval?
i_scoff_cake : If you think Brexit was chaotic and caused uncertainty, Scottish independence will be that on steroids. A Scottish government may not even be able to borrow money.
The thought of Scotland having a vote on independence must really annoy you with the amount of utter bile you choose to spew out whenever the idea of independence is mentioned.
Good, we must be doing something right.
@I_scoff_cake Not symbolic really. Scotland is the symbolic bit for me, the trading block the practical bit - and the bigger and freer the better.
and even our other national drink.
Buckfast? Tenennts Super?
Absolutely nobody (except maybe Russia) is going to get behind Scotland on a questionable referendum.
Apart from there are numerous examples in international politics of referenda being organised without " permission " from the national parliament. Ertrea is one. Self determination is written into un law iirc
I am distinctly underwhelmed by the proposals tho. Very weak imo and i doubt enough to get a vote held. I had hoped for a better idea from the snp.
I understand the desire I'm just concerned of the practicalities. Much like brexit.
Currency
Armed Forces and with it Nato etc
Borders?
For a few.
It'd ause the pound to weaken further in my opinion pushing things like fuel up even further.
On the brink of a global recession abd termoil throwing another variable in seems like poor timing to say the least.
What would the political landscape look like? How would the Snp split as independence is their entire remit.
Ertrea is one
Not the best example, can we have one where press freedom isnt ranked lower than North Korea.
proposals
I actually havent seen these yet, anyone got a sensible level headed link assessing them from either side of the divide?
Buckfast? Tenennts Super?
@jodafett I assume you’re either kidding or from another planet, but stick “your other national drink” into Google and see what comes up (in Yorkshire anyway, so the Googleness spreads outside Scotland).
Do report back. 😉
Its just dog whistle SNP politics, not much different from the government, instead of the culture war the Tories think is helping their vote the SNP have an independence war, it's still government by opulist division and sod the consequences.
The practical issues and downsides of Scottish independence got a whole lot worse with Brexit, it'll be NI on steroids.
Rather than aim for a fantasy independence which would be a nightmare the SNP should be trying to bolster the Scottish position in Westminster and actually enacting local policy, their track record on the latter isnt great from what I can see, far to easy to blame Westminster (although with Boris in charge it must be very tempting).
It'll be tough no doubt, but at least the SNP have a handy example of all things not to do after the vote courtesy of the Tories!
I really think the prospect of No/Better Together winning another referendum are vastly underpriced
This is what worries me, im not sure theres enough minds left to be changed to swing it, although right now it does look like flipping a coin as far as probability goes. But then, I alway seem to take a more pessimistic view.
Im also not convinced the timing isnt simply down to internal SNP politics.
How many people think as one of my neighbours does with "FFS again, can we just not have some normal for a bit"? (Ive no idea btw)