Scotland Indyref 2

brucewee,
An independent scotland would have been out of the EU in 2014.
An independent scotland now (even wanting to rejoin) would be out of the EU for maybe 25 years before qualifying economically (and that qualification would come by means of austerity).

I know that your answer to e.g. the Riemann hypothesis is "INDEPENDENCE" and you find the majority of your fellow countrymen a disappointment, but please try to see the other side.

You know that feeling that you get when you see boris or farrage talking up the result of the EU referendum when you know it no longer represents the will of the majority?

Well thats the feeling that the majority of the people in scotland get when sturgeon goes off on one. Shes mistaking political power for an excuse to speak on behalf of "the people". But she only speaks for half of us at best and mostly less than half.

Nationalism at its best.

I would agree that the chances are slim. In fact, I would put them in the 'that ship has sailed' category.

Assuming you agree that the vast majority in Scotland are in favour of remaining and independence is the last chance to do that I'm struggling to see your objection to another referendum.

eat_the_pudding, you seem very sure of yourself despite these being things you cannot possibly be sure of.

I can post links showing that the attitudes towards iScotland from EU states is very different now compared to 2014 but tbh, there are so many you'd be better off just googling it yourself.

As for the majority of Scots, neither one of us knows that number now. We know the numbers from when leaving the EU 'might' happen but we don't know what the numbers are now that it 'will' happen.

Opinion polls over the next few months will be interesting.

tjagain

Member
I think the next set of opinion polls on this will be interesting. I would be very suprised if it is not a significant majority for independence

I would. it'll be a drip feed over the next few years, might have taken a 1 or 2 % bump recently.

brucewee
Majority in favour of the EU <> majority against the union.
Majority against brexit <> majority in favour of scexit

and the evidence for that is written all over the most recent poll we just had.

You probably can see that even though its convenient for you to ignore it

I'm not denying that that could change as brexit bites, but we both know that if support for europe was the same as support for independence (or even a "consistent 60% in the polls" remember that?) it would have already happened.

Assuming you agree that the vast majority in Scotland are in favour of remaining and independence is the last chance to do that I’m struggling to see your objection to another referendum.

I'm being slightly contradictory in my replies. Originally I was disputing the SNP claim to have a mandate for another vote. I don't like their constant claim to speak on behalf of the people of Scotland, as though it is some sort of god given right. The don't speak for me, and if the election results are anything to go by, they don't speak for the majority of Scots either.

However on the other hand I also said above that maybe there is a case for a second vote, for the reasons you have put forward. However I would like it to be in a few years time so things can settle down a bit. At the moment we don't know how things are going to pan out.

I would also like there to be more detail on what an independence agreement would like like, either pre negotiated or by having a second confirmation vote (like there should be with Brexit). I also think, given the very decisive nature of referenda, that any future ones (on anything) should need at least 60% of a majority to be passed.

brucewee
Majority in favour of the EU <> majority against the union.
Majority against brexit <> majority in favour of scexit

and the evidence for that is written all over the most recent poll we just had.

You probably can see that even though its convenient for you to ignore it

I genuinely have no idea what you are saying here.

I don't know what the first two lines mean at all.

When you say the most recent poll are you talking about the GE?

If so, then yes, we can tell some things from it but not in terms of the binary questions.

What we can tell is that 25% of people voted for parties in favour of Brexit and the Union.

46% of people voted for parties against Brexit and the Union.

29% of people voted against Brexit and for the Union.

We have no way of knowing what those 29% value more highly, the EU or the Union, so saying anything with your level of certainty is just wishful thinking.

kennyp

Subscriber
The Westminster controlled parties in Scotland campaigned on a simple message “Vote for us to stop IndyRef2” and the SNP then won 80% of the seats in Scotland

The Westminster controlled parties in Scotland campaigned on a simple message “Vote for us to stop IndyRef2” and as a result got 55% of the vote, a clear democratic message.

Fixed that for you. Or does democracy only work one way?

That's just not true, the tories did campaign on a straight no. Labour didn't, they followed Corbyns line of being coy about it, hinting they'll allow one in a few years.

That’s why in the early years of a UK Labour government will not agree to a section 30 order request if it comes from the Scottish Government.

That's not a no, so bang goes your no ref mandate..

page 98..

SCOTTISHLABOUR.ORG.UK "https://scottishlabour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Scottish-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf"

scot tory manefesto

The don’t speak for me, and if the election results are anything to go by, they don’t speak for the majority of Scots either.

Maybe not on everything (they don't speak for me on everything, that's for sure) but they do speak for you with regards remaining in the EU?

Like I said, that is the one thing that is certain about the Scottish results. Independence is now the only way of achieving that so in my view they have a duty to pursue another referendum.

Unless anyone has any other suggestions how they can represent the 75% of Scots who want to remain in the EU?

I too would like a fairer UK – but that is never going to happen is it?

It will swing back in the future. If Corbyn hadn't agreed to stand in the leadership election we'd have had a decent centrist Labour majority again, and Tories would have been reduced to short interlude in a generation-long period of centrist Labour government.

Portraying England as a nation of Tory scumbags isn't accurate or fair. The majority are centrist, just as in Scotland, they just weren't well served by the parties on offer this time unlike in Scotland.

Portraying England as a nation of Tory scumbags isn’t accurate or fair.

Can you give us some examples of people on this thread who have said England is a nation of Tory scumbags or words to that effect?

Can you give us some examples of people on this thread who have said England is a nation of Tory scumbags or words to that effect?

I quoted the comment that prompted my post.

I quoted the comment that prompted my post.

I don't believe TJ was saying English people were all Tory scumbags, do you?

There is a very unfair electoral system that allows the minority of scumbags to vote in a government with a massive majority.

It's not fair, it's highly unlikely to change anytime soon, and I don't think it's xenophobic to point that out.

I don’t believe TJ was saying English people were all Tory scumbags, do you?

There is a very unfair electoral system that allows the minority of scumbags to vote in a government with a massive majority.

It’s not fair, it’s highly unlikely to change anytime soon, and I don’t think it’s xenophobic to point that out.

kinder gentler politics...... oh sorry that was Labour

molgrips

I quoted the comment that prompted my post.

You've got some chip on yer shoulder fella.

Is your goal to come on and taunt, so someone bites, and then you can justify what are obviously your preconceptions?

Portraying England as a nation of Tory scumbags isn’t accurate or fair

I can live with being an English scumbag but I absolutely draw the line at being called a Tory 🙂

Is your goal to come on and taunt, so someone bites, and then you can justify what are obviously your preconceptions?

No. What I'm doing is calling out this Scottish exceptionalism that pervades these threads. Everyone seems to think that Scotland will be sunlit uplands once it's freed from those awful English. That's the language of Nationalism the world over, it's the language of Brexit too. Scotland will have its own racists and right wing factions just like England does, and they'll end up having a similar effect long term.

The idea that Scots are all centrists and the English are right wing seems absurd to me. The biggest UK landslides in recent memory were centrist, along with centrist landslides in Scotland. So that should tell you that the UK as a whole is centrist.

If your argument is simply in favour of a more effective democratic system then fine, make that case - but leave out the veiled anglophobia or take some steps to try and avoid sounding like it. Otherwise the whole thread ends up stinking. I've only got your words to go on.

And I'm not even English so I'm not taking personal offence.

Molgrips
I don't think you grasp the political divergence between England and Scotland

Having read this thread from the start (and with sympathies for the pro- independence Scots) this situation has changed so much from Thursday. Johnson has a big enough majority and the language has already changed. The last vote was a “once in a generation” and the Tory party is already messaging that SNP didn’t get a majority of votes in Scotland. Hence Boris will just ignore all claims for another referendum. There is precious little that Scotland can do about this.

Also Scotland will be taken out of the EU with the UK and hence a further referendum will be (if it ever happens) to a Scotland that will have to re-apply to join the EU. That’s much harder with the economic rules the EU sets down and with Spain (due to Gibraltar and Catalan issues) veto’ing Scotland’s memebership.

I think that this is very much the Tory strategy to keep Scotland in the Union.

but leave out the veiled anglophobia or take some steps to try and avoid sounding like it

OK, but you'll have to point it out when it happens. You can't just say, 'there's a general air of anti-Englishness here' and leave it at that.

Also, you can't just say, "'The election system is unfair and I don't think it's going to change' really means 'All English are Tory scumbags'" without explaining why.

I don’t think you grasp the political divergence between England and Scotland

I don't think you grasp that either country isn't a homogeneous political lump

anyway meet a "tory scumbag"
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1217140/hyndburn-election-results-2019-Sara-britcliffe-conservative

molgrips

Subscriber
Is your goal to come on and taunt, so someone bites, and then you can justify what are obviously your preconceptions?

No. What I’m doing is calling out this Scottish exceptionalism that pervades these threads. Everyone seems to think that Scotland will be sunlit uplands once it’s freed from those awful English. That’s the language of Nationalism the world over, it’s the language of Brexit too. Scotland will have its own racists and right wing factions just like England does, and they’ll end up having a similar effect long term.

The idea that Scots are all centrists and the English are right wing seems absurd to me. The biggest UK landslides in recent memory were centrist, along with centrist landslides in Scotland. So that should tell you that the UK as a whole is centrist.

If your argument is simply in favour of a more effective democratic system then fine, make that case – but leave out the veiled anglophobia or take some steps to try and avoid sounding like it. Otherwise the whole thread ends up stinking. I’ve only got your words to go on.

And I’m not even English so I’m not taking personal offence.

You are full of shite. The discussion has been well mannered.

Away and take your frustration at Wales making a c of it somewhere else. You're the one trying to turn this into something it clearly isn't.

tj,
If you look at stats for things (like the attitudes to immigrants etc. was the last thing I read about) Scotland is just not that different to the rest of the UK.

Attitude to the EU is the biggest recent difference (hence this latest discussion) but on a lot of other metrics thats just not the case.

I tend to think that our attitude to the EU is potentially a result of the fact that we were forced to think about the wider world and our relationship to it during the run up to 2014 in a way that the rest of the UK wasn't.

Also if what you say is true and everything is inevitably moving towards indy, whats the rush? Why not wait a few years for the "inevitable" overwhelming majority, and then take it?

Maybe you secretly realise that rushing people into a vote without time to look at all the issues, or bring all of the lies to the surface, and then offer no way back when the truth comes out is the way we do things now?

In support of molgrips, there is an air of scottish exceptionalism here, and its as obvious (and annoying) as the english nationalism that pervades other social media (particularly when talking about brexit).

Just because there is a change of a few % points in attitudes that makes a massive difference in a FPTP electoral system does not mean that a country and its people are either angels or demons.

more tory scumbags

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50772518

ex army, social worker, community councillor and micro brewery owner.......... she must be horrific

then there is the former dolphin trainer

The discussion has been well mannered.

One of the reasons I have contributed a good few things to this thread today is the above.

A few questions for those of you in favour of a second referendum vote:-

1. When should it be?

2. Should it be 50% + 1 or something more decisive?

3. In the event of a no vote, should a third vote be held and if so when?

Everyone seems to think that Scotland will be sunlit uplands once it’s freed from those awful English.

It's not the awful English that we want away from. Most English people are, in my opinion, pretty goddamn  groovy.

It's the London-centric government at Westminster that grates. They don't give a shite about anyone outside their bubble.

I'd be equally hacked off if I was English and lived in Cornwall or Norfolk or Yorkshire or anywhere else that gets forgotten about.

We're just fortunate enough to have a historical border and a political momentum to try and do something about it.

It won't be sunlit uplands but at least it might  be a shitstorm of our own choosing.

eat_the_pudding

Member
In support of molgrips, there is an air of scottish exceptionalism here,

Show us some examples?

Just because there is a change of a few % points in attitudes that makes a massive difference in a FPTP electoral system does not mean that a country and its people are either angels or demons.

Who's claiming that? I like England it's a great place.

Tory governments habitually enforced upon us can get tae though.

If you look at stats for things (like the attitudes to immigrants etc. was the last thing I read about) Scotland is just not that different to the rest of the UK.

I suspect if Scotland had the same levels of immigration that parts of England have then we would see a lot of the same rather nasty views expressed up here. I don't like that holier than thou attitude that sometimes comes across.

1. When should it be?

2. Should it be 50% + 1 or something more decisive?

3. In the event of a no vote, should a third vote be held and if so when?

1. As soon as possible. Or at least, the first one should be which brings me onto point 2.

2. I think 50% + 1 is the only fair way to do it. If you require a super majority then you are effectively saying that Unionist voter's opinion is worth more than Nationalist voter's.

However, whatever withdrawl agreement is decided after the first vote it's unlikely to be exactly the same as whatever is in the White Paper. Therefore there's a good chance it will need a confirmatory referendum with an option to stay in the union.

I think having multiple referendums is fairer than demanding a super majority.

3. I think independence referendums should be held every time the country returns a majority of candidates who had an independence referendum in their manifesto. There shouldn't be a 'from on high' declaration that there will be no more referendums. If the voters don't want another referendum then they should vote for candidates who don't have referendums in their manifesto.

If the voting system means that there will always be a majority of candidates who are in favour of independence then the voting system should be changed.

seosamh
Exceptionalism works alongside nationalism.

It leads people to say things like:

I don’t think you grasp the political divergence between England and Scotland

I won't go further in looking for examples, because I've spent a bit of time on here trying to point out the correlations between brexit and scexit in the form and style of the arguments deployed, and the undercurrent of "heres us and whos like us" that pervedes both english and scottish nationalism.

If you can't see it by now you never will.

On political attitudes and divergence - you only have to look at voting patterns to see the difference. 62% remain and not a single constituency voted leave. Tories at the highest level for a generation or two - at 25%. Brxit / Ukip - almost no votes.

We have a tax raising / improving services government - elected on a platform of raising taxes!

eat the pudding - scottish and english nationalism are diametrically opposite. One is blood nd soil, the other civic.

A few questions for those of you in favour of a second referendum vote:-

1. When should it be?

2. Should it be 50% + 1 or something more decisive?

3. In the event of a no vote, should a third vote be held and if so when?

1. Before the brexit debacle, I was arguing 2030, I'd prefer 60%+. Since Thursday, I now think 2023/24 is likely and preferable, I think the population will shift quite a bit.

2. I'd like 60%+, but in reality no-one is going to stand for such limitations.

3. If it gets beat, it'll be it for another 20/30 year I'd probably guess. I don't think you can exclude the question again forever. If it's right to ask once, it's valid to ask again. But if it gets beat this time, it'll be the last throw for a long time.

You are full of shite. The discussion has been well mannered.

It has, or it was until now. But I'm not complaining about the manners.

The nats are so convinced of Scottish exceptionalism that any attempt to point it out seems utterly absurd to them. Everyone knows the English are a bunch of Tories and Scots are fundamentally different, of course they do, don't be ridiculous....

And right on cue to illustrate this:

scottish and english nationalism are diametrically opposite

I don't think it's exceptionalism to point out that there are differences in political opinion.

And when it comes to the key question of the day which is should we stay in the EU there is a monumental gulf in the opinions. It has to be resolved.

Of the 29% of the population who voted for remain unionist parties we have to know how many of them value the EU more highly than the Union and vice versa.

The nats are so convinced of Scottish exceptionalism that any attempt to point it out seems utterly absurd to them. Everyone knows the English are a bunch of Tories and Scots are fundamentally different, of course they do, don’t be ridiculous….

For the third time of asking, post examples or stop making accusations.

Edit: Unless the point that your trying to make is that even suggesting there is a difference in motivation between independence voters and Brexit voters is exceptionalism?

In which case, I can't really put forward a rebuttal because the premise is pure gibberish.

eat_the_pudding

Member
seosamh
Exceptionalism works alongside nationalism.

It leads people to say things like:

I don’t think you grasp the political divergence between England and Scotland

I won’t go further in looking for examples, because I’ve spent a bit of time on here trying to point out the correlations between brexit and scexit in the form and style of the arguments deployed, and the undercurrent of “heres us and whos like us” that pervedes both english and scottish nationalism.

If you can’t see it by now you never will.

Well Brexit is a clear and fundamental current political difference.

But if you can't see that getting Tory governments imposed on us against our will is a fundamental political difference. I really don't know how I can explain that to you.

In the last 40 years, there's been 13 years of Labour and 27 years of the Tories. That's at least going to be 13 and 32 years at the end of this term, most likely 37 years, as labour will take a long time to sort itself out..

That's a life time of uk government for me, I don't see the pattern changing.

We(me and alot of others, might be a majority, might not be) prefer the Scottish parliament, we think it'll suit us better.

We aren't looking to take anyone out against their will, we want to work within the confines of democracy and persuasion.

How is this exceptionalism?

molgrips

It has, or it was until now.

There ye go, I obliged, gave you a wee bite(deliberately), your preconceptions are confirmed, you happy now?

Everyone knows the English are a bunch of Tories

We keep getting Tory governments, we aren't making that up. We aren't voting for it.

We keep getting Tory governments, we aren’t making that up. We aren’t voting for it.

But this is the case across the UK. This is what it looks like where I live *after* a historic swing to Tories.

But only the Scottish get to opt out because ... they're different?

Nationalism stinks.

TJ,

eat the pudding – scottish and english nationalism are diametrically opposite. One is blood nd soil, the other civic.

Really? Despite Siol nan Gaidheal having a benner at the front of the march for independence in glasgow?

How would you react if you saw a pro brexit march with a bnp (or equivalent) logo at the front?

You keep using the word nationalism. I do not think it means what you think it means.

But if you can’t see that getting Tory governments imposed on us against our will is a fundamental political difference. I really don’t know how I can explain that to you.

Important bits highlighted in bold.

But this is the case across the UK. This is what it looks like where I live *after* a historic swing to Tories.

But only the Scottish get to opt out because … they’re different?

Nationalism stinks.

I'm quite aware of how Wales voted. I have looked at the numbers, and I'm aware where the bulk of the population is.

What do you want me to do, stick with you and endure eternal tory governments?

I'm sorry about that, but you are better having that argument internally rather than lashing out at us.

You have your own parliament. Start fighting for that.

molgrips

Subscriber
But if you can’t see that getting Tory governments imposed on us against our will is a fundamental political difference. I really don’t know how I can explain that to you.

Important bits highlighted in bold.

We have a cultural identity and an outlet for it, is that really the definition of exceptionalism? really?

You have both yourself. Stop feeling sorry for yourself and do something about it.

eat_the_pudding
Siol nan Gaidheal

You're just trolling now. 😆

Anyhow, this was a good conversation, but it's descended into farce.

I'm oot.

The only Scottish exceptionalism I'm aware of on these threads is the one suggesting that, alone amongst the nations of the world, Scotland is incapable of self-determination.

A common complaint about Brexit was that people didn’t know exactly what they were voting for. If there were to be a second independence vote tomorrow then the same applies. Why not leave it a while and see where we are further down the line.

This is my thinking. I've gone from dead against to a maybe, but ultimately I'd like to know what's on offer from both sides first and make an informed decision.

A 2 stage referendum makes most sense to me..1st one is shall we go away and negotiate, 2nd a confirmation on the outcome of the negotiation. That would at least stop us being promised the world and delivered a pile of crap, as per brexit.

Sturgeon is beginning to get my back up now however. She's convinced brexit will be a disaster, so if she's so sure why doesn't she wait 3-5 years, let us see how bad it is then give us the choice. If she really wanted what's best for the country she'd give us that opportunity. Instead she (as always) is puttimg the nationalists agenda ahead of the good of the country by trying to capitalise on ill will towards brexit and the Tories.

Either way it's a bit of a non issue. Tories won't grant a ref in next 5 years. They have no need to appease scotland or the snp, and without Westminster's approval any vote would carry no legitimacy at all.

a disaster, so if she’s so sure why doesn’t she wait 3-5 years, let us see how bad it is then give us the choice.

(a) the longer the delay, the more damage will be done to the economy and the harder it will be to rejoin the EU

(b) the independence movement is more broad than the SNP. If she's not seen to be making progress she (and ultimately the SNP) will be out of power.

But this is the case across the UK. This is what it looks like where I live *after* a historic swing to Tories.But this is the case across the UK. This is what it looks like where I live *after* a historic swing to Tories.

The other thing that annoys me is for years the pro union vote has been in the lead, with only a very few polls showing independence being ahead, and usually by only a tiny majority.

The snp however seem to think that all it takes is one moment in time of being ahead in the polls to justify another referendum, something that if it goes the way of yes will be irreversible.

Given the very nature of the discussion, and the fine balance between numbers both for and against there needs to be either a long term and consistent majority for independence, or a fairly significant majority - ie over 60 %. Decisions like this shouldn't be made on the back of one referendum where the majority is wafer thin.

Not a single one of the Nationalist arguments make sense unless you impose a fundamental difference between Scots and English (cos no-one cares about Wales or NI).

This is Nationalism.

The voting argument does not make sense - you are citing the fact that Scotland voted en masse for a party that did not stand in England.

He says while standing there championing the cause of British nationalism...

Defo oot this time. 😆

England could have voted LibDem if the electorate had wanted a "middle road".

What is unique about the wishes of (many of) the Scottish people for self-determination that makes them so different from, say, India?

Rightly or wrongly it's coming across that you just don't want Wales to be left behind with the English.

Just so that I understand this, molgrips:

We say that there are consistently differences between the way Scotland votes and the way England votes.

We then say this is a sign that there are fundamental political differences between us.

By saying this it automatically makes us nationalists in the same vein as brexiteers?

What is unique about the wishes of (many of) the Scottish people for self-determination that makes them so different from, say, India?

A majority of Scottish voters have voted for pro-union parties in every single election the UK has ever had. The majority is smaller now but still a majority. Scotland is free to vote anyway it likes, and so far has chosen to remain part of the UK.

That may change in the future, but we aren't being held against our will, or "imprisoned" as the SNP said the other day.

England could have voted LibDem if the electorate had wanted a “middle road”.

With a proper PR voting system I suspect many more would have done so. But that's another debate.

That may change in the future, but we aren’t being held against our will, or “imprisoned” as the SNP said the other day.

I agree (hence my qualifier), but it's surely not wrong to seek self-determination if/when that's what the majority want? Molgrips seems to have some fundamental objection to the principle.

molgrips

But only the Scottish get to opt out because … they’re different?

The Empire's days are over.

Almost everyone has opted out. N. America. Australia, NZ, Kenya, Malta etc etc

So we're no different, we want to opt out too...

As I said Molgrips you appear neither to understand the difference between the nationalism of the SNP and than of the BNP and also how much the countries are diverging politically

I can give some examples - Scottish nationalism is outward looking and inclusive - best shown by this quote from Bashir Ahmed - the first non white to be elected to Holyrood
" Its not where I come from as a person that matters, its where we are going as a country"
Scottish nationalism is not based on blood or ethnicity - its based around a shared identity as the people of scotland not as ethnic scots. All immigrants are welcome.

#As for the political divergence - just look at post war voting patterns. Scotland has not voted for a majority of Tories since the 50s, and the far right get almost no support up here.

During the independence ref campaign we were told that as an independent country we would have no more influence on world affairs than Finland - we shrugged and said " sounds about right" NO delusions of "punching above our weight" and clinging onto dreams of empire. We look to countries like Holland and Sweden and see a much better way of life we would like to emulate - but we cannot while remaining part of the UK.
Maybe you have to live here to understand this but its obvious when you do.

By saying this it automatically makes us nationalists in the same vein as brexiteers?

No. But it does make you nationalists.

He says while standing there championing the cause of British nationalism…

I what now? I'm a European federalist.

We say that there are consistently differences between the way Scotland votes and the way England votes.

Because the ballot papers were different.

Maybe you have to live here to understand this but its obvious when you do.

Lol. 'We're not exeptionalists, we're just different and better, it's obvious'

I can give some examples – Scottish nationalism is outward looking and inclusive – best shown by this quote from Bashir Ahmed – the first non white to be elected to Holyrood

He says while standing there championing the cause of British nationalism…

I what now? I’m a European federalist.

You are greeting at us for wanting to leave the British project...That's British nationalism right there.

You are trying to claim we believe we have a special reason for leaving.. Nup, just don't believe in Westminster domination and want out.

I'm the least scottish "nationalist" person you'd meet.

Why don't you just move up and vote with us? Sound like you want to be Scottish anyhow! 😆 Yer more than welcome.

Probably the best chance you get at a shot of European federalism anyhow, you've no chance under westminster.

Which is exactly what I am too btw, am all for a European state of small nations. It would be great if France, Germany, Spain and Italy would revert back to smaller blocks too, say 4/5 to 20m tops, under a common European federal banner, unlikely I know but it's defo not happening under a British flag..

Trying to be oot, but it's hard, ah f it, back in.. 😆

Maybe you have to live here to understand this but its obvious when you do.

Lol. ‘We’re not exeptionalists, we’re just different and better, it’s obvious’

Tbh, that's just TJ, most of us are quite well aware there's plenty of nobends up here too. 😆

Why don’t you just move up and vote with us?

It's only my intense dislike of nationalism that currently stops me*.

* and my ageing parents

” Its not where I come from as a person that matters, its where we are going as a country”
Scottish nationalism is not based on blood or ethnicity – its based around a shared identity as the people of scotland not as ethnic scots. All immigrants are welcome.

I am not equating nationalism with racism.

But only the Scottish get to opt out because … they’re different?

Well, those in Northern Ireland may well get a chance and the only thing stopping Wales is, well, the Welsh.

tbh, the only overt nationalism that really exists is a few days when they feel the urge to kick about George square or go on a march or two a few times out of the year.

I honestly think it's just more of a social event for most of the flag waving types. They are utterly harmless. A bit a kin to a gala day out or something, not for me, but they really aren't a danger to anyone.

I agree (hence my qualifier), but it’s surely not wrong to seek self-determination if/when that’s what the majority want?

I totally agree.

So we’re no different, we want to opt out too…

Except that the majority of us don't want to.

kennyp

Subscriber
So we’re no different, we want to opt out too…

Except that the majority of us don’t want to.

IF you are so convinced, why not go for a quick ref and clamp us.

Otherwise the trend is only going one way.

IF you are so convinced, why not go for a quick ref and clamp us.

I've said above that I'm in favour of a second vote if that is what the majority want. However I think it should be in a few years when we see how things are going. If Brexit truly is a monumental disaster I may even vote for independence myself. However at the moment we do not have anything like the necessary information to make such a crucial decision. The union has been around for three hundred years so is another three too many to wait?

Otherwise the trend is only going one way.

But is it though? I mean we've had Brexit, an idiot elected as PM etc and yet the polls show no significant shift from the vote in 2014.

If the SNP can't score a goal from three yards out when the opposition goalie has gone to the pub for a pint then they are never going to get a better chance.

We know the Tories are going to shaft us for at least 5, probably 10 years, then Labour might get in, but then the Tories will get back in probably for another 20 years and continue the shafting.

But is it though?

The demographics don't favour the union.

Molgrips - thats really offensive. I did not say better - just across the country there is a different political consensus. We want on average differnt things. Higher taxes to give a better welfare state being one of them.

Nothing to do with what is on the ballot paper - you realise there is hardly a fag paper between labour and the SNP on most issues? Why does the far right get no traction up here?

What little hard right we have is actually unionist not nationalist.

So why are the polls showing no significant shift to independence? It’s a genuine question regardless of views on yes/no.

Also, what if Boris point blank refuses to grant a second referendum and in the 2021 election again a majority vote for parties opposed. What do the SNP do?

Why does the far right get no traction up here?

Probably because Scotland doesn't have the same levels of immigration that parts of England does. That's where the far right thrives. I'd love to think I am wrong but I suspect Scotland has the same latent nastiness, it just hasn't found a breeding ground yet.

Cause of Brexit is my guess, it make people a bit weary, but well, that's here so, things should start to shift i think. Particularly in the face of tory intransigence.

The demographics is a seemingly slow moving game, but one day in the not so distant future, that'll hit us in the face if Boris doesn't tip us over the edge.

Also, what if Boris point blank refuses to grant a second referendum and in the 2021 election again a majority vote for parties opposed. What do the SNP do?

It'll need to bid it's time.

Kenny - there has been some movement but not a lot but its been slowly climbing to around evens now. I suspect the next poll will show a significant movement but we have to wait and see. I like many others would like to see a darn sight more than 50/50 tho. Its all about that pragmatic third of the electorate in the middle and they need some convincing. Anecdotaly people are moving from unionism to independence. However the strand of nationalism that is Out / Out may be less likely to vote for independence as in 2014 they would be hoping for an independent scotland outside the EU wheras now post brexit it is clear that we would end up / remain in the EU so perhaps they are now against independence?

the independence movement has a number of sub tribes some of whom want out of the EU I suspect they are moving to NO as others move to yes

As for the next move given a section 30 order will clearly be refused I do not know nor can I see one. The UN route to self determination is not clear cut and the unionist parties could wreck a referendum by a boycott.

Perhaps legal challenges?

I am sure the SNP have something up their sleeve however

Probably because Scotland doesn’t have the same levels of immigration that parts of England does.

Do you have any data for that?

I ask because I remember reading one study that said that in strong leave voting areas the most common reason for voting leave was 'because I feel like I a stranger in my own country.'

The only problem with that was that the areas with the strongest leave vote also corresponded with the areas of lowest immigration.

Kenny - its not just that tho that point may be valid but even in areas where there is a fair amount of immigration we see very little far right traction. I suspect its partly the way the SNP have channelled national pride into being inclusive - its just not acceptable in the nationalist movement to be anti immigrant - that and the hard right nutters of the rangers variety hang their allegiance to unionism

I see it a bit like the Scottish football fans abroad - its self policing. As with the fans if someone ties to act up they get policed by the rest of the fans. I think that the people who would want to be hard right blood and soil nationalists realise there in no place for them in the independence movement and thus there is no breeding ground for them and their xenophobia is challenged by the nationalists