Scotland Indyref 2

The story of Italian immigrants provides one of the more shameful episodes in modern Scottish history.
http://www.ed.ac.uk/history-classics-archaeology/diaspora-studies/research/research-projects/italians-scotland

Big and daft - could the SNP do anything you would agree with?

Its obvious the economic argeument has changed so requires new answers

Sturgeon seems to be getting more of the treatment usually reserved for Tories with paper's like The Independent choosing deliberately unflattering photos.

Big and daft - could the SNP do anything you would agree with?

Of course there probably is, i imagine that there are competent people in the team making boring but important decisions well on some issues

Its obvious the economic argeument has changed so requires new answers

So the solutions will be different in v2 of the Book of Dreams?

who knows? People who know about this stuff are looking at it now. How could I possibly predict?

competent. Very. Best government of any flavour I have seen in my lifetime. NO major blunders, done a load of good stuff.

BTW - saying "book of dreams" shows two thing. One you are totally biased and 2) you have a closed mind

@Gordimhor, thank you for the link. I'll take a better look at the topic later today when I'm supposed to be at work.

Interestingly the numbers given in that link, 30,000 in Scotland out of 220,000 puts the Scottish population a little above average but not dramatically so. Hard to believe the remaining 190,000 are all in South Wales. Must do some more digging around as I'm intrigued now. I note that's an Italian embassy sourced figure, is that ex-pat only?

Piemonster I was really looking for a blog I read some time ago, the personal stories of Italians in Leith I think when the policy of interment was implemented. I couldn't find that so opted for the link above. I don't know about the figures for certain, wiki says there is no official record but estimates between 30000-100000. Not much use.
One of the people interned from Leith was Eduardo Paolozzi
[url= http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/play-sparks-debate-over-whether-italians-deserve-apology-for-wartime-internment-1-1232631 ]Internment of Italians[/url]

Its interesting that so many of them stayed on after the war. That link certainly opposes the generally held view that the Italians were well treated which is why they stayed after the war.

Paollozzi stayed on and left artworks to the city

Lots of Italians around here, Troon and Largs in particular. Common thinking was that they either didn't make it to the states, or just liked the area.

Possibly an urban myth...

TJ this might go some way to explain why they stayed after the war. Basically many had been here for a long time.
[url= http://www.glasgowwestend.co.uk/people/internmentitalianfromglasgow.php ]An Italian from the west end[/url]
The writer does seem to like question marks.

It seems there was also a campaign to whip up resentment. From the same blog

Creating Public Opinion

Thanks to the pioneering contemporary social survey inquiry, Mass Observation, it is possible to gauge the impact of the press during the spring and summer of 1940. The survey was carried out to measure general attitudes towards the issue of aliens under the then umbrella term of the ?Fifth Column?. Reporting in April 1940 it stated that the majority of Britons did not even know what the phrase meant. Detailed interviews in London and the west coast of Scotland revealed that less than one person in a hundred suggested that aliens ought to be interned en masse. When the survey was repeated in middle of May, however, weeks of intensive press campaigning had clearly had an impact with the survey?s author, Tom Harrison, suggesting in the New Statesman of July 1940 that, ?many people who a month before were inclined to be tolerant of aliens were now almost pogrom minded?.

@Nobeer They stayed for the weather 😀

Thanks for that gordimhor

Its always nice to add to knowledge especially when its correcting a misapprehension

Yes, another thanks from me Gordimhor

Reading through what there is on wiki does lead back to what we need to address to attract migrants.

From wiki;
According to the 2011 UK Census, there were 131,195 Italian-born residents in England, 3,424 in Wales,[35] 6,048 in Scotland,[36] and 538 in Northern Ireland.[37]

Suggests that despite existing communities new Italian migrants aren't choosing Scotland. And it'd be really interesting to see a breakdown of why those that did come chose to do so.

It could be a case that Scotland was the destination for family/partner reasons and less for economic reasons? It might not, just pondering.

big_n_daft - Member
Its obvious the economic argument has changed so requires new answers
So the solutions will be different in v2 of the Book of Dreams?

Can see you're going to be giving it a fair, un-biased appraisal! 😆

It's a shame this page doesn't give references, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Scots

Not seeing to which census they are referring too? That text brings up a lot of Google hits, but it looks like people are referencing and unreferenced wiki article.

Cheers Tja and Piemonster . I was trying to find a figure for the Italian diaspora in Scotland but can't .
Family and regional connections (in Italy) may have been important at one time.
There was an article in The Herald which claimed a rise in immigration to Scotland from Italy then.[url= http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13138869.Scotland_is_immigrant_choice_for_a_new_Italian_connection/ ]Italian immigration to Scotland 2014[/url]

I might say there has been such a "material change in circumstances" since then that I am not sure the article is still relevant. So at the risk of dragging the thread back " on topic"
One thing a Scottish Government would do if it was within it's powers is protect the rights of EU citizens currently resident here. Another could be to restore Post Study Work Visas.
[url= http://www.universities-scotland.ac.uk/campaigns/post-study-work-for-international-students/ ]Come to study,stay to work[/url]

seosamh77 - Member

Can see you're going to be giving it a fair, un-biased appraisal!

TBF, I re-read a lot of V1 last night and it is mostly fanciful horseshite. Book of dreams is actually very apt!

sbob - Member
TBF, I re-read a lot of V1 last night

*Lots of Italian families in my neck of the woods, I remember being told they originally came over for the brickworks, though I couldn't verify.
I could certainly rattle off at least half a dozen Italian surnames from my school years.

[url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_UK_locations_with_large_ethnic_minority_populations ]*Actual, demonstrable lots, not the fanciful Edinburgh type.[/url]

sounds like a fab night!

On death's door, needed an easy read to distract me from my ails.

I remember being told they originally came over for the brickworks

This would mirror what happened in Bedford very closely.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2006/jan/23/britishidentity.features113

But if there was IndyRef2 before Brexit, what is the point of that going to be ?

Scotland will be out of its own as an independant country, not part of the UK and not part of Europe either - so it will face trade tarrifs to trade with both the UK and Europe - and the UK is a much larger percentage of that trade.

All this IndyRef2 stuff is doing is to cause uncertainty and make the UKs position before Brexit look even worse.

It is just devisive on the part of the SNP.

And stupid, it could well cause the UKs position after brexit to be much worse, which will drag Scotlands position down with it, and so if Scotland were then to gain independance it will also be in a worse position when trying to negotiate entry back into the EU.

The timetable of events is just plain wrong and May is quite right to try to shut the discussion down. All Sturgeon is doing is playing a game.

All this IndyRef2 stuff is doing is to cause uncertainty and make the UKs position before Brexit look even worse.

Is that possible? Johnson/Fox/Davies romping around looking confused and unprepared, May terrified of offering parliament any input, but rushing over to hold hands with the least popular US president because Brexit has made us so desperate.

It's inevitable that Scotland will leave and Ireland reunite, why should we negotiate as a nation that won't even exist in a few years time...?

The prospect of being out of the EU and in the UK is not attractive. There will be cuts to come as a result of brexit.We have a right wing government writing their own version of the human rights act and cosying up President Trump. I for one am very concerned about any deal, trade or otherwise UK makes with his administration.

[i]Scotland will be out of its own as an independant country, not part of the UK and not part of Europe either - so it will face trade tarrifs to trade with both the UK and Europe - and the UK is a much larger percentage of that trade[/I]

Says who?

Apparently according to the Brexiters all this trade and negotiation stuff is easy, so we'll be back in the EU and with a better deal with the UK than the one we had before.

Sorted, and with plenty of time for lunch. 😉

piemonster - Member

This would mirror what happened in Bedford very closely.

Just up the road. 🙂

If Scotland votes for independence before the EU negotiations are up it takes from May one of the few bargaining chips she has - the Scottish fishing waters which have in the past been used as bargaining chips

IMO this is one of the reasons May rejected the call.

It's inevitable that Scotland will leave and Ireland reunite,

In your eyes maybe, but far from definite.

Anyway I'll leave this little read for folk over their lunch:

[url= https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/18/aberdeen-oil-price-wrestles-hard-choices-independence ]Guardian - Aberdeen oil price wrestles hard choicesindependence[/url]

Ruth Davidson:
'There is no appetite for Indyref2' Really?

http://www.orcadian.co.uk/online-poll-favour-second-scottish-independence-referendum/

Looks like a pretty solid 67% of their population would like one held.
There is a very strong swell of opinion in this part of the country that more than enough change has taken place since the last one and it is clearly time for a new and decisive referendum.

highlandman - Member
Ruth Davidson:
'There is no appetite for Indyref2' Really?

You'll probably have seen this picture of the respective turnouts for the party conferences in Scotland.

[url= https://c1.staticflickr.com/4/3843/33490511576_a15a733e0a_b.jp g" target="_blank">https://c1.staticflickr.com/4/3843/33490511576_a15a733e0a_b.jp g"/> [/img][/url]

As good a visual proof as any, and not moderated through any pro or anti filters by a polling company.

And if anyone wants to dispute distortions because of camera angles, rather than argue it here, find a pic that says different and post it.

Er, nope. Doesn't display.
Not that I'd be overly worried about a picture showing a field full of sheep.

Scottish fishing waters which have in the past been used as bargaining chips

Only as long as they are traditional Italian fish an chips

Large numbers of Italians in many places, the country was desperately poor and still has a very dramatic split between rich and poor. The US was quite hard to get into (and an expensive passage) so many settled elsewhere.

TJ you seem to be playing the woman not the ball. They both make legitimate points which show the gaping holes in the SNPs position. I'll post up currency options and implications later. None are palatable and each are easy to shoot holes in which is why the SNP won't pick one

More Jamba nonsense. The SNP have set up a committee of experts to look at all the financial stuff. Its not reported yet. going to be interesting to see you pick holes in it before its written.

#I am not playing the person not the ball.

I am a ex labour supporter and voter. I had high hopes for Dugdale but she continues to promote lies and to take orders from London that leads her into having to say things that are untrue. ONe obvious lie. Scottish labour went on the attack using the line " half a billion cuts in the scottish nhs" when the budget was actually increasing. Total lie. they could have put it as " 300 inpatient beds to close" which whilst misleading would have been true.

ON Davidson - I have a fair amount of time for her but her standing has gone down because she again has to say things now that contradict earlier statements she has made because she was straying from londons position.

Both of them are in an invidious position as they have a choice: go along with the london line and look stupid to the scots as they contradict themselves or make obvious lies or make statements that will resonate with their electorate and then be at odds with their london bosses

the solution for both is to split away from London Davidson especially often looks very uncomfortable because of this - you can tell she doesn't believe the statements she has to make.

I feel sorry for them both.

Kezia Dugdale did once apply for a position with the SNP. One assumes she knew that their main goal is, and always has been, an independent Scotland.

I didn't know that. Interesting. I knew her dad was an SNP activist.

tjagain - Member

More Jamba nonsense.

Glass houses old boy.

The SNP have set up a committee of experts to look at all the financial stuff. Its not reported yet. going to be interesting to see you pick holes in it before its written.

They did this before and it was chock full of bollocks then!

[url= http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2013/11/9348/0 ]Have a recap.[/url]

No need to assume it would be any different.
The accuracy of the document, that is. Obviously the financial position has changed, Scotland is now worse off...

Obviously the financial position has changed, Scotland is now worse off...

Everyone's now worse off, and soon to get much worse still, when the Brexit button is pressed. The question is not really how Scotland is doing now, with most financial levers controlled by Westminster, it's how Scotland will do in future, and whether we'll do better when independent.

I don't understand why so many unionists think that "Scotland's economy is rubbish" is such a good argument when Scotland's economy has mostly been run by Westminster for 300 years. If anything it's an argument for independence, not against, when you compare Scotland to similar European countries.

Scotland's economy has mostly been run by Westminster for 300 years.

I hate this talk. It wasn't 'run' by Westminster and it wouldn't be 'run' in an iScotland. Governments don't 'run' economies despite what they say. A government can set a framework, but otherwise the economy runs as per the market.

and another snub from May to the devolved parliaments. apparently we would be consulted and kept in the loop on all decisions but the members of the devolved parliaments found out the date of triggering of article 50 from the news

Does May actually want to see an independent Scotland - her actions make it more likely.

Kezia Dugdale did once apply for a position with the SNP.

Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh although currently an SNP MP in Westminster was a long standing member of the Tories (as well as a candidate in elections) and was even a member of the Labour party before defecting to the SNP!

but the members of the devolved parliaments found out the date of triggering of article 50 from the news

I think she may have told Vogue b4 hand 😉

I don't think she's deliberately snubbing them , she's just a control freak with poor managerial skills!

Scotland's currency options, some ramblings

1) Just use the £.

Westminster and BoE still control everything financial, interest rates, monetary policy, priniting money (UK will prevent iS printing £s as its no longer part of the UK)
Massively embarrassing for SNP although another opportunity to blame Westminster (ie the English) for all their woes
How does Scotland borrow, how is tye iS Treasury organised ?
How does Scotland support financal services and banks in particular (it can't print money and has no central bank) ?
How does that go down with the EU in membership negotiations (answer extremely badly)

Note Scotland could setup a mini Central Bank but keep £ but it would be totally subserviant to BoE which is going to make SNP look daft.

2) Create their own currency, the Scottish £

Needs a central bank with reserves
Likely to be highly volatile and pegged to the oil price - this creating a major issue with its largest trading partner the UK
Same issue with EU membership application

3) Join the euro

A hornet's nest of problems including having a different currency to its largest (80%+) trading partner
Massive potential liability for Southern European excesses
Interest rates and monetary policy set by the ECB (see what that did for Ireland)
Debt/GDP and deficit ratios set by ECB / Brussels - major headache for iS in managing the Economy

A50 has been triggered exactly when May said it would be, by the end of March.

If anything it's an argument for independence

😆

[i][u]Everything[/u][/i] is an argument for independence to you Mr Cooper.

[IMG] [/IMG]

tjagain - Member

apparently we would be consulted

We the Scottish or we the members of devolved parliament?
I thought you identified as an English Nurse?
It's no surprise you get confused about your (lack of) immigration status, you must be rushed off your feet!

We as in the scottish political bodies.

I actually personally identify as a Brit of english descent who has made scotland their home

Jamba - indeed ramblings. YOu have a crystal ball? Lots of unfounded assumptions there. I especially like the way you say a scottish pooond would be volatile.

Westminster and BoE still control everything financial, interest rates, monetary policy, priniting money (UK will prevent iS printing £s as its no longer part of the UK)

Even at the moment, Scottish banks cannot "print money" in the usual sense of the phrase.

Although Scottish banks can issue banknotes, for every RBS pound that is issued RBS has to deposit a pound with the BoE. No Scottish bank can increase basic money supply.

I especially like the way you say a scottish pooond would be volatile.

It won't be pegged to the oil price, but it will be influenced by it. Just a good dose of Adam Smith.

A genuine question because I don't know the answer; what currency options have other recently-independent countries chosen?

Slovenia now uses the Euro but did have its own currency for 20 years pegged to the dinar
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovenian_tolar

Eritrea again its own currency pegged to the dollar but there is a black market with differnt rates
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean_nakfa

I(f the scottish pooond was pegged to the euro with support from the ECB is that possible?

2) Create their own currency, the Scottish £

Needs a central bank with reserves
Likely to be highly volatile and pegged to the oil price

I'm calling #jambafact on this one! 😆

Estonia used the 'kroon' and pegged it to the Duetsche Mark

Wiki says;

Eesti Pank recommenced operations on 1 January 1990 after an interval of 50 years, though not yet as the central bank of an independent country. The fact that it was possible to restore the central bank in spite of the fact that Estonia was not yet independent was a paradox of that time. The Statutes of Eesti Pank were confirmed in March 1990, and 400 million rubles were allocated for the statutory fund. According to the Statutes, Eesti Pank was an independent public organisation, an issue centre subordinate to the highest authority of the ESSR. The main tasks of the bank included the following:

developing an economic strategy for the country and its execution in the field of currency circulation
the provision of credit, financing, settlements, and foreign currency relations
management of the currency and credit system
securing the stability of currency circulation; guaranteeing the purchasing power of the national currency and determining its exchange rate in relation to other currencies.

In fact even less

UK Scotland - population share Scotland - geographical share
1998-99 2,511 218 1,958
1999-00 2,564 221 2,096
2000-01 4,455 383 3,803
2001-02 5,426 464 4,598
2002-03 5,097 434 4,525
2003-04 4,284 364 3,742
2004-05 5,183 439 4,515
2005-06 9,384 793 8,226
2006-07 8,924 753 8,174
2007-08 7,474 630 6,824
2008-09 12,456 1,048 11,571
2009-10 5,990 503 5,679
2010-11 8,402 704 7,466
2011-12 10,957 917 9,633
2012-13 6,234 519 5,306
2013-14 4,764 395 3,999
2014-15 2,252 186 1,802
2015-16 76 6 60

186m in 2014/15.

so about 0.1% of the economy.

They should just say fk it go for the bitcoin !

Times they are a changing anyway, as Brexit hails London's swansong as a financial capital, time to think outside of box & seize new opportunities

So question Jamba, since you say that Scotlands ecomony will be oil based. How much oil/gas is the UK sitting on and how much of that is in Scotlands waters?

What's the 20 year projection for oil revenue?

long and short of the jist I can make out in regards to scanning though this.

conservative estimates is that there's probably atleast a quarter left from what's all ready been taken out, but with the crash in the oil price and increasing decommissioning costs, as well as strategic non-investment, that's what ripping the heart out the market, so investment is on a death spiral. Conclusion, oil money is pretty gubbed for a bit, slow to non existant till someone figures out a cheaper way to get at what's there and the price recovers..

So there's some value there, but no-ones basing their economy on it.

I(f the scottish pooond was pegged to the euro with support from the ECB is that possible?

With a peg, somebody has to fund that peg. The two currencies will move as a result of market forces, so you have to spend money to move the market back to the peg. If you don't, you just get arbitrage that screws up the lesser currency.

You would expect oor pooond to have to be funded by the Scottish Govt if it was to be pegged to GBP or euro (which is a sensible transition arrangement if you can afford it)

See Black Wednesday for further details 🙂

So question Jamba, since you say that Scotlands ecomony will be oil based. How much oil/gas is the UK sitting on and how much of that is in Scotlands waters?

Bear in mind that the established practice in International Law and under UN rules is that existing deposits are split per capita and not geographically. The EEZ doesn't apply. This would also include a Scottish entitlement to English shale gas which may be worth more than North Sea oil reserves...

The rules were developed to stop small, mineral-rich areas of African countries declaring independence and funding wars with their new found wealth. They probably aren't the best suited to the UK. But they are, for now, internationally agreed and binding precedent if there is no mutual agreement.

much is shale gas worth in scotland?

[quote=grumpysculler ]Bear in mind that the established practice in International Law and under UN rules is that existing deposits are split per capita and not geographically. The EEZ doesn't apply. This would also include a Scottish entitlement to English shale gas which may be worth more than North Sea oil reserves...
The rules were developed to stop small, mineral-rich areas of African countries declaring independence and funding wars with their new found wealth. They probably aren't the best suited to the UK. But they are, for now, internationally agreed and binding precedent if there is no mutual agreement.

I guess it [i]might[/i] be different for Scotland/rUK given that there's already a defined area (even if the "border" was sneakily moved north just before devolution)?

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2012/01/scotlandengland-maritime-boundaries/

Grumpy - that might be so apart from the fact the oil fields are already split geographically even if westminster did move the boundary a few years ago to take some. the only argument is going to be over that boundary

[quote=kimbers ]They should just say fk it go for the bitcoin !

You make it sound like that would be a silly option compared to the alternatives

Im not sure it is, the stock markets run by algorithms anyway, right?

I think the point is Scotland may as well go for it and do something innovative

Brexit Britain looks to be trying to return to a fantasy past of glorious britania (some twunt on QT was banging on about a return to victorian values seeing us through)

it makes sense to distance themselves from the clueless old giffers sending us over the cliff edge

[quote=kimbers ]some twunt on QT was banging on about a return to victorian values seeing us through

I presume he was imagining himself as a gent rather than working 12 hours a day 6 days a week in a mill?

I presume he was imagining himself as a gent

actually....

28:30 😆

Ah...

I think that the SNP should pay for a party political broadcast after the news

and just play that clip of waistcoat floppy haired guy and boom!

theyll be queueing up at the polling booths to get shot of England

Everyone's now worse off, and soon to get much worse still, when the Brexit button is pressed. The question is not really how Scotland is doing now, with most financial levers controlled by Westminster, it's how Scotland will do in future, and whether we'll do better when independent.

The Scottish SME owner I chatted to today says "bring on Brexit", be exports the majority of his products and most of the exports are outside the EU. He can't wait.

TBH he took me aback as obviously this is the opposite of the narrative, but he's as Scottish as they come. He is also lucky that he can't make his products fast enough

conclusive proof, brexit is wonderful! 😆

Big and daft - not every scot likes the EU only 2/3 of them. One of the real conundrums tho is a significant % of the SNP support want out of the EU

[url= http://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-doing-better-job-than-nicola-sturgeon-scottish-poll-10809174 ]May approval rating higher than Sturgeon's in Scotland[/url]

Really bizzare polling considering SNP support is twice tory in Scotland and May is almost universally hated. Well out of line with other polls. I'd have to look at the methodology to find out why but its such obvious nonsense that its not worth my while

If they polled Sky viewers, that's not surprising.

But the poll is up there with that one done recently where most of the answers were from England.

mefty - Member
May approval rating higher than Sturgeon's in Scotland

😆

Who conducted that poll; Jamba? And where did he conduct it; at one of THM's dinner parties?

Who conducted that poll; Jamba?

Without bothering to check. I'm going to bet £1 that it's an online poll without any control over who votes. Which are about as reliable as a bag full of sloppy cat shite.

I'll chuck another 50 pence in if it's one of those where you can refresh and vote again.

I honestly believe that run of the mill online polls should be treated with the same comtemp as a Daily Express front page weather headline.

not every scot likes the EU only 2/3 of them

Not sure that is completely true. Wasn't it 1.5m who voted to remain? 😀

A question for the economists.

Is there a model you use for forecasting the economic strength of a newly independent country?

None of the predictions of doom* have happened for other colonies becoming independent, so was that because the model was wrong?

Or because of cultural bias in the economists?
.
.
*that I am aware of, but even if a few have failed, the majority haven't.