Scotland Indyref 2

[i]HIGNFY et al. must be loving some of the soundbites coming out today, if this carries on they can sack the scriptwriters and videotape the news [/I]

ditto the Daily Mash

[i]Who wants to go to Scotland? You might as well move to Faroe Islands.[/I]

Says a man who lives in Newcastle...

I love it when a plan comes together
Brexit
Independant Scotland
Free Yorkshire

As you were

@TurnerGuy yes my point exactly a few pages ago.

An iS has WTO tariffs with EU (20% of exports) until it can rejoin
After rejoining it has WTO tariffs with the UK (80% of exports)

Kimbers you CANNOT have a finance industry without a central bank and regulator. The SNP proposed neither back in 2012-14. I don't see how an iS can keep financial services it has never mind get more. Scotland also has no banks, HBOS and RBS are effectively rUK banks now.

Getting swift EU accession, wooing , finance* from London to Edinburgh- RBS, Scottish pound able to respond to oil price better, but would need to be low corp tax etc to compete

Edinburgh's main area of expertise is asset management (incl private equity) which isn't significantly affected by Brexit, it is nowhere in the other areas and its restaurants aren't good enough.

given some of your misapprehensions of Scots and Scotland.

@gordi well 55.7% of Scots agreed with me on the wisdom of Independence

@mefty as I said last time I have zero interest in part of my pension being managed by a company in an iS. I need to look at moving it now as a contingency.

teamhurtmore - Member
Richmtb, there is nothing Inconsisent about understanding the FUNDAMENTAL difference between the EU and the UK and the EU and the EZ. Simple comparisons between being part of the EU and part of the UK are misleading, particularly in the Scottish context

Membership of the EZ: total folly
Membership of the EU x EZ: total sense
Membership of the Union: total sense
Independence: much less sense but ok
"Independence (sic) plus EZ: extreme folly

Which also nullifies threats that England would lock Scotland into WTO tariffs. If it did that, it would be forcing itself to work across europe on WTO terms.

b r - Member

Who wants to go to Scotland? You might as well move to Faroe Islands.

Says a man who lives in Newcastle...

Sky Customers in Scotland.

Should there be another Referendum

Yes: 35%
No: 60%
DK: 5%

Jamba - do you have a link? All I can find is ths one:

http://news.sky.com/story/british-public-opposes-second-scottish-referendum-sky-data-poll-10800987

SNPs plan is obviously to go for continued membership

Unfortunately, the European Commission torpedoed that one almost immediately after Sturgeon's speech.

In terms of economy and trade, in the EU and not in the UK is the worst position on offer. In the EU and in the UK is better still but that boat has sadly sailed.

#jambafacts 😆

actual numbers for scotland (though i don't think the sample size can lead to valid conclusions either way.)

As you may know, the First Minister of Scotland has called for a second Scottish independence referendum. Do you think there should or should not be a second Scottish independence referendum?

weighted 89
unweighted 272
edit: Should not 53%
edit: Should 46%
Don't know 2%

Sturgeon succeeded in girding the loins of the opposition, Brexit Bill has been passed overturning Lords's amendments.

@seaso lots of routes to the WTO inc EU forcing UK into that corner for self preservation (ie trying to dissuade other EU nations from leaving) and of course my view that WTO is fhe best prgagmatic options as wasting time with the EU is exactly that. Rescources best spent elsewhere, eg US, Canada, Australia, NZ, Commonwealth.

My point is don't assume WTO will be as a rsult of May / Westminster

This is typical of the sort of press each colony got as it sought independence. Look familiar?

[url= https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2858/33423815595_ebc567b763_z.jp g" target="_blank">https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2858/33423815595_ebc567b763_z.jp g"/> [/img][/url]

How many have failed?

jamba, i don't think WTO will be the outcome for uk/europe and i don't think it'd be the outcome for scotland/ruk either. Much is made of the 46bn to ruk from scotland. not much said about the 50odd billion from ruk to scotland.

WTO isn't in anyones interest.

I was just commenting on the threat of, and the tactics better together 2 will employ.

jambalaya - Member
...Scotland also has no banks, HBOS and RBS are effectively rUK banks now.

Oh no, you're wrong Jamba, they're Scottish now that they're losing propositions. 🙂

chewkw - Member
We are at the front line with Hadrian wall to shield us from any invading force from the North.

Sturgeon succeeded in girding the loins of the opposition, Brexit Bill has been passed overturning Lords's amendments.

Through the lords as well without a division, no opposition, chewk is shouting FREEDOM somewhere.

This is typical of the sort of press each colony got as it sought independence. Look familiar?

Sounds about right. But are you able to evidence that's real, has all the hallmarks of some shit shared on Fartbook or ****ter.

Genuine interest, never really tracked down old press releases to see what was said.

piemonster - Member
This is typical of the sort of press each colony got as it sought independence. Look familiar?
Sounds about right. But are you able to evidence that's real, has all the hallmarks of some shit shared on Fartbook or ****ter.

Similar stuff was also published about Papua and New Guinea when it was getting its independence from the Australian govt.

Be tempting to see what could be found in on-line archives for each colony.

[url= http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-demands-border-poll-in-wake-of-sturgeons-call-for-second-scottish-independence-referendum-35526368.html ]Meanwhile Ireland is warming up too[/url]

jambalaya - Member
Sky Customers in Scotland.

Should there be another Referendum

Yes: 35%
No: 60%
DK: 5%

Jambafactual distortions of the truth aside

Doesn't that imply that the turnout will be lower which would favour the indies

[I]Should there be another Referendum[/I]

Surely the question that should've been asked was "if there was another referendum how would you vote?".

@kimbers its a survey of Sky customers in Scotland, simple question 3 possible answers Yes/No/Don't Know.

That seems the right question as Sturgeon is asking Parliament whether she can hold a do-over

@zigzagbyes tha's it, I didn't have a link as I just posted what they put up on the screen during the news

Joe, you are having a laugh if you reckon you at getting option 2!

chewk is shouting FREEDOM somewhere.

I can hear him from here 🙂

@seaso those trade figures £50bn from Scotland to the UK just make no sense whatsoever. We never got to the bottom of them last time round but there is must be a massive does of bollix in the counting I assume with regard to the treatment of oil or similar.

That seems the right question as Sturgeon is asking Parliament whether she can hold a do-over

She wasn't really asking

The genies out of the bottle now, (Mays ill conceived speech a few weeks ago after months of pushing a hard Brexit made this inevitable)

May can try and say no, but it would be beyond hypocritical for her to deny them after they vote for it at holyrood.

The best she can hope is that in this one the electorate really do listen to the experts.

I think Ruth Davidson is going to be very busy, I can't for the life of me think who will be heading up the In campaign, Corbyn as committal as he was to Brexit, the Brexiteer Tories as toxic as conceivable , Scottish labour burnt by the last ref....
Farage is free at the moment.... 😉

Trump will be visiting next year, the sight of May or her Maj toadying up to the orange one will be enough to alienate any wavering voters

jamba, the numbers are fairly irrelevant to the point(tbh i just plucked them from memory), which is that there's trade in both directions, so benificial to all to make that as painless as possible.

The most recent Scottish government figures, not including oil and gas, show Scotland sold £50.5bn in goods and services to the rest of the UK in 2013. The rest of the UK sold £62.7bn in goods and services to Scotland.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-28916642

teamhurtmore - Member
Joe, you are having a laugh if you reckon you at getting option 2!

we'll see how it plays out...

interesting numbers actually when you look at this

Below is a list showcasing 15 of United Kingdom’s top trading partners in terms of export sales. That is, these are countries that imported the most UK shipments by dollar value during 2016. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total UK exports.

United States: US$60.4 billion (14.8% of total UK exports)
Germany: $43.6 billion (10.7%)
France: $25.9 billion (6.3%)
Netherlands: $25.6 billion (6.3%)
Ireland: $22.9 billion (5.6%)
Switzerland: $18.9 billion (4.6%)
China: $18 billion (4.4%)
Belgium: $15.8 billion (3.9%)
Italy: $13.1 billion (3.2%)
Spain: $12.7 billion (3.1%)
United Arab Emirates: $9 billion (2.2%)
Hong Kong: $8.8 billion (2.2%)
Japan: $6.4 billion (1.6%)
Canada: $6.2 billion (1.5%)
Sweden: $6.1 billion (1.5%)

scotland would be one of rUKs biggest export markets.

So Newsnight have two foreign born MP's telling us that we can't have a referendum. WTF has it to do with them.

Maybe we need somebody from UKIP on there telling 'em to go home.

🙂

[url= http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/43859 ]Sinn Feinn calling for a referendum[/url] too.

Irish politics is about to get far more interesting than Scottish... 🙂

[url= http://www2.partyof.wales/scotref ]Oops! And the Welsh.[/url]

Just need Cornwall and Yorkshire to chime in now.

Great so now it eirexshit and wrexshit

Oops! And the Welsh.

Eh? They voted [b]for[/b] Brexit!

ninfan - Member
Eh? They voted for Brexit!

Change of heart?

Perfectly possible to not live in Scotland and still have a clue, in which case I would happily consider their argument.

I don't see you having to post much from here on in. As ninfan seems to have pitched in after his couple of weeks holiday,can I just be first to call "HOUSE!"
It is good to see business as usual from our resident economists.
LEFT HAND. Brexit's consequence are very difficult to predict( unless you are Jamby)
RIGHT HAND. Scotland would be screwed though,RIGHT!

epicyclo - Member

Oops! And the Welsh.

I actually think Wales's position in the union would be strengthened if Scotland leaves. Given the greater devolution of Scotland, England and Wales are too often lumped together. Without Scotland, there would hopefully be greater recognition of devolved powers in Wales. And hopefully a re-think of how it works, I don't think Wales needs greater devolution, but it needs a more straightforward partition imo, too many things are half wg, half Westminster which causes delay and confusion

@epicyclo. I think you'll find Yorkshire Freedom chimed in some time ago.

After all the brexit result frothing presumably any indy ref will now require a substantial majority to get passed ? 60% ?

I was thinking more that every region of Scotland would have to agree. Can't have one region getting dragged out of the union against its will, can we?

allthepies - Member
After all the brexit result frothing presumably any indy ref will now require a substantial majority to get passed ? 60% ?

Would make a lot of sense

region

YAWN!!!!!

Just as well you'll have zero input into the decision process them. Imagine not knowing the difference between a region and a country.

Would make a lot of sense

I wonder what our constitution says about making changes to our constitution.

This seems to have been lost after I mentioned it a few pages ago ..

[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-eu-independence-referendum-scotland-join-queue-membership-apply-a7627201.html ]Independent on Scotland in Europe[/url]

Reapplication required.
So indy means out of Europe AND out of UK
Why is that a good thing?

Also, 14.8Bn deficit plus maybe 150Bn set up costs (up from Salmonds estimate of 500Mn tee hee)

No-one seems to be keen to be honest about where we will make the cuts?
Just about the wonderful "freedom" we will have.

Scottish Indy isn't a way of [i]avoiding[/i] Brexit.

Its Brexit squared (plus Brexit)

No-one seems to be keen to be honest about where we will make the cuts?

We can't keep going with this deficit for much longer regardless of whether we are in or out of the UK.

Anyway, first port of call for cuts is nuclear weapons. Although to be fair I don't really expect to save on defence spending. I would expect to see a lot of hard hitting cuts across the board if I'm honest, but I'm thinking more folk are considering what sort of a country they want their children to grow up in, not whether they'll be quids in the day after a leave vote.

Scottish Indy isn't a way of avoiding Brexit.

It's not meant to be, don't mistake the catalyst as the cause.

£150 bn setup cost? #eat_the_pudding_fact ?

Reapplication required.
So indy means out of Europe AND out of UK
Why is that a good thing?

SNP have been meeting EU leaders for months now and ,according to newsnight, found a much softer tone, from individual leaders.
As it points out in your Indy link
They already meet the legal regs etc,
I doubt they'd be able to wangle automatic entry more likely accelerated accession.

Ninfan, you regional point really ought to be targeted at the fact that only four council regions voted yes last time and the most definitive - the nat hothouse of Dundee - managed a "massive" 57% 😉 Many remain councils polled over 60%, so all we have is another largely (depressed) metropolitan "elite" riding roughshod over the rest - sound familiar?

Why all the headlines about Strurgeons surprise? Utterly predictable and "sensible" from her perspective in terms of timing despite the fact that the majority of Scots (polled) don't want that timing, but since when has the interests of the Scottish people been at the forefront of the SNPs minds? It's the end that counts, screw the means.

So May should acknowledge, then respect the majority, and delay any further talks until after Brexshit when a proper second debate could be had. Wee nippy can rant and rave and a few more might be pissed off, but that is nothing compared with the larger number who would be pissed off by nippy forcing a vote they don't want, at the wrong time, for the wrong reasons

#SDBMB

Imagine not knowing the difference between a region and a country.

Double edged sword that one isn't it? Scotland ceased to be a country when they signed the act of union.

Lol ok then.

[quote=ninfan ]
Oops! And the Welsh.
Eh? They voted for Brexit!

Largely as a result of all the 4th generation English economic migrants in the South Wales valleys or the ones who have sold their 2 bed terrace in London and bought a country estate here. 😉

The proper rural welsh areas were largely Remain

#eat_the pudding fact :O)
Genuinely just a number I saw online. I'll withdraw it as a bit of googling suggests its an order of magnitude high.

I'll happily take better info if you have it (book of dreams not accepted).

Salmond 2014 figure of £500Mn for a complete "IKEA country" setup went by the wayside when just setting up a system to manage the new Scottish tax powers cost many times that.

Trident will probably cost the UK 2 - 2.4Bn per year (Figures apparently from CND so probably on the high side). Scottish proportion of that would be relatively small

So for the price of Indy we could build how many nuclear submarines?

Where to cut after that. Schools, NHS, Pensions.

You decide.

"SNP have been meeting EU leaders for months now and ,according to newsnight, found a much softer tone, from individual leaders."

Softer tone?

27 of them have to say yes to a nationalist separatist country that will not be making a net contribution.

Softer tone isn't enough.

Where to cut after that. Schools, NHS, Pensions

international development aid budget

27 of them have to say yes to a nationalist separatist country that will not be making a net contribution.

We won't? We already are.

ninfan - Member
...Scotland ceased to be a country when they signed the act of union.

So why does the UK describe itself in its UN membership as a Union of 2 countries, a principality, and a province?

The countries are named as England and Scotland.

Where to cut after that. Schools, NHS, Pensions.

You decide.

That's the key, we will decide. If cuts are inevitable then it's best that we have full control over how we spend all of our money, not the 20%-30% of it at present. If cuts are inevitable on independence then they will be also as part of the union. We are in deficit at the moment, we borrow to get around this, that option will also be available on independence.

Is that true? Scotland gets tons of EU cash, does it really pay in more than it gets?

Given only 9 Countries make a net contribution to the EU, I find it really hard to believe that Scotland would be up there with the big economies.

So why does the UK describe itself in its UN membership as a Union of 2 countries, a principality, and a province?

The countries are named as England and Scotland.

You'll be hard pressed to get a result by bringing reality into the equation.

Where to cut after that. Schools, NHS, Pensions.
You decide.

Ermm, all of the above. But as noted, it'll be down to the Scottish electorate

We are in deficit at the moment, we borrow to get around this, that option will also be available on independence.

*Awaits more expensive borrowing response

big n' daft
Wow, welcome to the new outward looking Scotland.

Big aspirations and tiny bank balance.
But aspirations are what matters!
Right?
Not being able to pay for pensions and healthcare, what does that matter when you have a flag!
Right?

I'll put this here to kick off discussions again.
If few billion a year in "tory austerity" is bad in terms of social consequences (and it is!)
How about 10Bn a year until Scotlands economy catches up (Maybe at the same speed Greece has not managed?)

No EU, no UK and 10Bn of ongoing cuts, year on year where do you want it?

[img] [/img]

Remember, I'm not saying it can't be done. but asking who will pay the price.

Shouldn't there be some sort of discussion about that?

[I]Why all the headlines about Strurgeons surprise? Utterly predictable and "sensible" from her perspective in terms of timing despite the fact that the majority of Scots (polled) don't want that timing, but since when has the interests of the Scottish people been at the forefront of the SNPs minds? It's the end that counts, screw the means.[/I]

The fact the SNP have 56 of the 59 Westminster seats says to me that the Scottish people want independence, otherwise why would you vote for a party who's key pledge is independence if you didn't want independence?

I was thinking that outofbreath, would Scotland become an EU dependent on more handouts than contributions? If it didn't the contribution could be so minimal that it would still cost the EU money to have Scotland in surely?
Not something the other dependent EU member states would want to share.
Sturgeon she's so desperate to get her name on something in history, she will do her damnedest even if it ruins her country. (Cameron started it and history won't look back favourably on him).

Eat the pudding as piemonster and others have said the key is it will be our decision.
There is an argument made briefly here that the deficit figures are not very accurate
[url= https://amp.ft.com/content/1feecc2c-6bb4-11e6-a0b1-d87a9fea034f ]Andrew Hughes Hallett[/url]
Also when I posted the link to the Nuffield Centre's updated report on the NHS I also posted a link which claimed the NHS in Scotland was functioning better than elsewhere. You haven't responded to that so far as I am aware.

The fact the SNP have 56 of the 59 Westminster seats says to me that the Scottish people want independence, otherwise why would you vote for a party who's key pledge is independence if you didn't want independence?

otherwise why would you vote for a party who's key pledge is independence if you didn't want independence?

There wasn't anyone else to vote for!

SLab - nope
Scottish Cons - nope
There was someone else but i cant remember, pastel orange!?

"I was thinking that outofbreath, would Scotland become an EU dependent on more handouts than contributions? If it didn't the contribution could be so minimal that it would still cost the EU money to have Scotland in surely?
Not something the other dependent EU member states would want to share.
Sturgeon she's so desperate to get her name on something in history, she will do her damnedest even if it ruins her country. (Cameron started it and history won't look back favourably on him)."

Maybe they answer is to grant a Referendum only once the EU has agreed to underwrite Scotland as an independent state.

That should keep both sides happy.

I'm sure i seen some on here argue before that Scotland shouldn't join the EU on independence as it would be a net contributer therefore they wouldn't get anything out of it. The figures are there if you Google for them. It wasn't always the case and it will probably always change from time to time. It's fairly minimal either way in terms of numbers.

"I'm sure i seen some on here argue before that Scotland shouldn't join the EU on independence as it would be a net contributer therefore they wouldn't get anything out of it. The figures are there if you Google for them. It wasn't always the case and it will probably always change from time to time. It's fairly minimal either way in terms of numbers"

None the less, why would, say Spain, want to encourage nationalist separatists?

And if they do, let them say so up front and the EU agree to underwrite Scotland as a fledgling nation.

For a lot of people that would remove all impediments to voting Leave.

After all the brexit result frothing presumably any indy ref will now require a substantial majority to get passed ? 60% ?

Where's that Dawson video 🙂 ? We all know that 50.1 / 49.9 would be an "historic win"

@seaso my point is that the rUK can't negotiate a deal with Scotland you have to have the same deal as EU.

The border is much more complicated. Ireland/NI is an island sonwr have that additional security. To me its inconveivable we'd have an open land border with a Shengen member. Just a non-starter personally.

As to having a view an iS impacts the rUK so of course we are entitled to have a say.

Kimbers May's speech was spot on as where her remarkss yesterday. She knows shebis on solid ground. SNP couldn't make the economic case last time and its even more difficult this time. The SNP won a reduced majority at Holyrood, whilst we hear plenty from them they didn't represent the majority Indy view last time and IMO won't again

...
...

Headlines today are obvious ones. May will approve a vote post Brexit amd with good practical reasons - ie too busy and too much uncertainty. Whether the vote is in 2018 or spring 2019 Scotland cannot remain in tje EU. There simply isnt a timetable that could work.

If Yorkshire gains it's Freeeeeeedommm, it'll be a bigger country than Scotland. This I think could present an opportunity for both countries on trade, we could supply subsidy and Scotland could supply free whisky. What's not to like. No need for the EU at all unless they beg.

b r - the views on independence have been tested, and the views on having another vote now have been polled. Of course, these can both be ignored when the ends justify the dubious means. Who cares what the people want? The ends justify the means....

So this Hard Brexshit we are negotiating, how's it going to work.......?

If Yorkshire gains it's Freeeeeeedommm, it'll be a bigger country than Scotland. This I think could present an opportunity for both countries on trade

Maybe we can have a re-run of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact - a secret annex agreeing that we both invade Durham, Northumeberland and Cumbria and share the spoils ?

( Newcastle will be walled off and deprived of tanning lotion, ditto Middlesbrough for chips and gravy. )

Eat the pudding. So what are you wanting there? As I've said before you need more detailed figures if you want to have a detailed discussion.

But you crack on. More vague points for you... 😕

Nice to see barrosos pal comment on Scotlands EU membership. Must be fact that... 😆

As for the 60 percent requirement. Tbh I've said yes it should be that. But that's not where we are in democratic thinking these days unfortunately.

Thm. If people are against a vote. They'll simply vote no.

A big plus to Scotland becoming independent is that it would immediately remove the Tories from power (in Scotland) and start the demise of the SNP (hopefully). Swings and roundabouts.