I’ve no doubt Scotland will get independence one day, but the SNP are going about it just now as if it’s got an expiry date
This is only true (the “what’s the rush, there is shit going down” argument) if you think ground can not be lost in terms of devolution. Under cover of all the difficult issues you list, some forced on the UK, some made worse by it, and some created by it, the Conservative party will unpick devolution thread by thread. It’ll win them loyalty from their supporters (especially down here), and shift power from bodies they can’t control, to those they can.
but the SNP are going about it just now as if it’s got an expiry date
there is also the internal politics of the SNP - there is a faction that believes Sturgeon is deliberately dragging her feet for reasons i cannot fathom and that Sturgeon does not want independence. There is a faction that believes the SNP should be going for independence now and there is a faction that believes they should wait until its a sure thing
also there is the basic issue that the SNP have been in power too long IMO - parties in power for more than 10 - 12 years run out of ideas , get riven by infighting and get infiltrated by those just after power or to push their own agenda. this is clearly happening IMO
Put all that together and then the SNP really have no choice but to get the referendum in before 2023. Otherwise the party will split up into factions and lose power and thus lose the chance
I don't think those factions are as big or as powerful as you (or they) think. A lot of SNP members have no wish to going back to the days of being a wee diddy party.
No beer - maybe you are right and certainly their discipline is good but labour never wanted to go to being a wee diddy party in Scotland but it happened - mainly from inept leadership and badly misjudging the public mood.
I think if the SNP do not get the referendum within that time scale the pressures will be huge - the fundamentalists will oust Sturgeon and usher in a period of infighting. Never underestimate the potential of political parties to self destruct. I would see it as ending up rather like the labour / SDP split although the nature of the electoral system would mean the efffect on the seats gained would be less but I could see them losing enough seats that a labour / tory coalition could control a majority . labour in Scotland has so lost its way that they will ally with the tories to keep the SNP out as they have done on a number of councils
Those numpties who think that for some weird reason Sturgeon is not committed to independence did rather destroy themselves by aligning with Salmond and ALBA which was a huge success so that might help reinforce discipline
There is also the pressures of the "broad church" with the right wing tartan tories having been purged and they might set off infighting as well. But again a number of "socially conservative" SNP bigwigs wasted their chance with Alba
The factionalisation and infighting in a party in power for too long is something that has been seen in many places at many ties
As for Scotland being left, or centre left or whatever, it’s just like every other country, it has areas where they are left biased, and areas that are right, it has the affluent areas and poor areas that will vote towards their own benefit, or not at all, it’s pretty much the same as the rest of the UK
Based on how the people of Scotland have voted for decades it's nothing like the rest of the UK.
If you believe otherwise, show your evidence.
Only evidence is being born and bred up there, growing up in Perthshire where it was a tory haven, moving down to Falkirk and Glasgow where your eyes are opened to the usual issues that have plighted Scotland for generations.
If you take away the London based politics, you're going to be left with new parties with voters now having no historical issues with voting, i.e. no 'would never vote tory/labour', then we'll see how those parties grow against the backdrop of changes under independence, which will push the voting metrics for me.
no historical issues with voting, i.e. no ‘would never vote tory/labour’
Locally here, that's been dispelled too btw, loads of folk I know from out in the former mining towns of East Ayrshire are now voting Tory, mainly because Labour are pointless though.
Ayrshire is a rangers enclave as well though 😂
Davidson successfully made the tories the unionist choice for the electorate. a good piece of political positioning so traditional labour voters turned to the tories if unionism was more important to them than political positioning right / left. thats a part of the reward labour got for forgetting the tories are the enemy and aligning with the tories in the independence debate, in going into anti snp coalitions on councils and running the labour / tory non agression pact in the GE. labour ended up losing a large part of its identity and allowed the tories to take the unionist vote.
AS an aside - does anyone know who the scots labour leader is now? I have just realised I no longer know! My situation has led me to take a lot less notice of the news than I used to but as a man who voted solidly labour for 35 years thats a weird one!
Don’t forget one of the important differences in Scotland is election by proportional representation.
If we had a parliament that reflected votes cast in England it would not be as right wing as it is.
I’ve come to the conclusion that Scotland is just generally more sensible and better at government for the people than rUK and give that the rest of us have failed to copy its homework, it should probably just leave (especially as Westminster is looking at ways to reduce devolution).
and no one that votes SNP now will vote UKIP or hard right in the future.
TJ, this is not true in the slightest.
I used to work with someone (now retired) who is a full on Indy supporter he is anti English despite being born and brought up in England to English parents. He is also a full on Brexiteer and I have heard him express pretty horrible racist views. He would vote UKIP in a heartbeat and I would bet there are many others like him. He isn't thick either, he is a degree qualified engineer.
I think you have rose tinted idea of what Scotland is like, maybe its based on where you live and who you associate with but I don't believe we are as different to England as you think. Certainly in the poorer areas that have had an influx of EU migrants have a higher proportion of anti immigration views.
The SNP is a broad church from people like me who vote for them as the other option is Tory, to people like yourself who fully support Indy to the full on anti English arseholes. If we got Indy I think things would be different and I don't believe you can look at current voting patterns to ascertain what people will vote for in the future. People are inherently selfish and will vote for their own benefits.
P.S I am not anti Indy, I swither. Brexit though has also made me battle weary, would be nice to go back to a bit of political calm!
Ayrshire is a rangers enclave as well though 😂
Absolutely, some of them had Corbyn down as a terrorist sympathiser, idiots. There are some sensible ones amongst our numbers, we're just not as vocal. 😉
Nobeerinthefridge
Free Member
Ayrshire is a rangers enclave as well though 😂Absolutely, some of them had Corbyn down as a terrorist sympathiser, idiots. There are some sensible ones amongst our numbers, we’re just not as vocal. 😉
Yeah, will be funny to see how independence affects them, then again they'll only be concerned if the number of penalties they get is reduced!
tjagain
But the SNP are not the same as the electorate. Ukip got 7% of the vote at their peak compared to 25% in england – and no one that votes SNP now will vote UKIP or hard right in the future. they might vote for a future centre right grouping but that movement willbe small
I don't think you can make that assumption, views on immigration are almost identical across England and Scotland, and Wales in fact also.
The SNP really are amazing, in that they've remained so domininat for so long in Scottish politics
The indy question kepps them sustained as a broad church, inspite of any failings or contradictions between supporters.
The irony for tory or Labour voters in Scotland is that this doesn't seem likely to change, the only way the SNP hegemony will be broken would be for them to actually gain independence & then a more 'normal' political landscape should resume
I don’t think you can make that assumption, views on immigration are almost identical across England and Scotland, and Wales in fact also.
Care to provide evidence?
I tend to agree - the best way to get rid of the SNP as scottish government is to vote for independence. But point of order - they have only been dominant for around 15 years or so. labour were completely dominant for 40 years
number of penalties they get is reduced!
I take it you've not seen yer goal from last night then? 😉🤣
True, I wouldn't say I was a "SNP guy". They're a tool to an end and for me that would be a coalition with good Green party representation
Put all that together and then the SNP really have no choice but to get the referendum in before 2023. Otherwise the party will split up into factions and lose power and thus lose the chance
I think there's a measure of that expectation at Westminster as well. Both major parties have reason enough to try to break the hegemony of the SNP, factional infighting over the timing of an independence referendum would be the way I'd go if I were leader of either Labour or the Tories
@tjagain I've been telling the haters that for years, if you want rid of the nationalists, vote yes. Totally pickles their heids 🤣
@ygh my sentiments exactly.
I have never voted SNP. I dislike the over controlling over centralising aspect and my local SNP MP is a lying fud who is clearly only in it for money. My SNP MSP is a good guy to but its now a safe seat for him. Always green on list vote
Nobeerinthefridge
Free Member
number of penalties they get is reduced!I take it you’ve not seen yer goal from last night then? 😉🤣
Lovely strike by Furuhashi!
multi
There is a huge disconnect between the results of surveys like that and what actually happens on the ground. I do not know the reasons for that. I suspect poor methodolgy
There is a huge disconnect between the results of surveys like that and what actually happens on the ground.
Yes, if you look at actual numbers England is far more welcoming to immigration than any other home nation.
Then why are voting patterns so different? Why does anti immigrant rhetoric get so little traction up here?
could be multiple reasons from shy racists not appearing in the polling data down south to people finding economic and social attitudes from parties much more important than immigration policies to the social atmosphere here making it harder for racists to express their views publicly to simple poor methodology
Then why are voting patterns so different? Why does anti immigrant rhetoric get so little traction up here?
Probably for the simple reason that there are far, far fewer immigrants, particularly ones with the "wrong" skin colour.
I suspect that if parts of Scotland had the same immigration levels that you see in parts of England, then those same nasty, xenophobic attitudes would, sadly, rise to the surface here.
Take for example the experience of Irish immigrants to parts of the west coast back in the 19th century. The attitudes of some Scots to those incomers was no better than the attitudes of some English people toady.
Thankfully in both cases it's a small, but vocal, minority of both Scots and English, but I very much disagree with this notion that Scots are somehow morally superior to our cousins down south.
I’m actually pretty convinced that we are.
Oof.
You need to have a think about how media works and how you get your information.
Wow downright patronising! Out of interest do you think my knowledge of England or my knowledge of Scotland is wrong and which bits of which media do you think influenced me to arrive at such a wrong conclusion?
I agree with loys of that, we're in no way morally superior at all.
However, there is a 'we're aw Jock Tamsons bairns' mentality, we've definitely become more accepting in my lifetime, and we don't really have as much of the 'Britainnia rules the waves' superior mentality that some do below Gretna.
All anecdotal of course!
It all comes down to opinions, so is it roasted cheese, or toasted cheese, is it square sausage, or lorne sausage and so on
this notion that Scots are somehow morally superior to our cousins down south.
Oh I would agree - but then I don't see anyone saying that
What I am saying is voting patterns are very different with right wing anti immigrant parties getting no traction - to the point Scots Tories have tried to disassociate themselves from the English tories. We have a openly pro immigration party getting a huge % of the vote and anti immigrant rhetoric gains no traction here as can b seen from the total failure of UKIP to ever gain any significant support
There is no value judgement in this - just a set of observations
It could just be being contrary for example - "whatever those bastards down south do we do the opposite" which would hardly be morally superior
and we don’t really have as much of the ‘Britainnia rules the waves’ superior mentality that some do below Gretna.
That may be a key aspect. I remember during the independence campaign where the unionists tried all sorts of tactics. they floated the idea " iScotland would have no more influence on world affairs than finland" which was met with a collective shrug and " that sounds about right" "who cares" Hankering after the days of empire seems to just not exist here. ( which given the pivotal role scots played in the empire is odd)
and we don’t really have as much of the ‘Britainnia rules the waves’ superior mentality that some do below Gretna.
While I think that attitude is pretty vocal amongst the usual suspect of the popular RW press (Sun, Mail, Telegraph) I don't think it's a opinion widely held in the general population. I think most English and Welsh would react to a successful Indy vote with sadness TBH
I suspect that if parts of Scotland had the same immigration levels that you see in parts of England, then those same nasty, xenophobic attitudes would, sadly, rise to the surface here.
Those "xenophobic attitudes" down here are more prevalent where there are fewer immigrants.
I've generally found more racist attitudes in areas where there are less non-white folk (i.e. rural Fife where I'm from and go back to a lot) as opposed to more cosmopolitan areas (Southside of Edinburgh where I lived for ages). I guess it's easier to see them as "lesser" or "other" if you never meet them. But if you end up having a nice chat or working with foreign people then you see them as equals?
Aye, which is why I did say some.
However, there is a ‘we’re aw Jock Tamsons bairns’ mentality, we’ve definitely become more accepting in my lifetime, and we don’t really have as much of the ‘Britainnia rules the waves’ superior mentality that some do below Gretna.
Aye and A Man's a Man for a that!
We do absolutely have our fair share of knuckle draggers though, just witness all the disgusting behaviour around football and "marches"
I think there is a different mentality, not better but different. Scotland will always be a small nation and as such we have generally looked outward rather than inward. The clearest demonstration to that was the different attitude to Europe.
Another step change in the debate around nationalism and independence was the very clear articulation that its not about the "Scottish People" as some sort of ethnically distinct group separate from the rest of the UK, if that was ever even valid, to being about "The People of Scotland" which was anyone who lived here regardless of their background.
As Kelvin says - the Edinburgh is very much an immigrant town ( mainly white) its very rare to hear any racism or anti immigrant feeling
the bit I live in is a very odd mix of gentrified, long standing immigrants, recent immigrants and a traditional working class scots. I have never seen or heard any anti immigrant feeling
the very clear articulation that its not about the “Scottish People” as some sort of ethnically distinct group separate from the rest of the UK, if that was ever even valid, to being about “The People of Scotland” which was anyone who lived here regardless of their background.
Has that meant the anti immigrants have had to not make their feelings public but feel free to say so in private ie polling? But that does not explain the clear difference in voting patterns
Probably for the simple reason that there are far, far fewer immigrants, particularly ones with the “wrong” skin colour.
I suspect that if parts of Scotland had the same immigration levels that you see in parts of England, then those same nasty, xenophobic attitudes would, sadly, rise to the surface here.
I think you are probably mostly right, (although I'm not sure your skin colour point is quite right - there are places in Scotland where Syrian refugees are welcomed but glasgow born white Catholics feel intimidated!). I think there is also a difference - there is no political party jumping on the immigration card here, in fact it's used the otherway by politicians to complain about Westminster. Its also worth questioning the "far, far, fewer" claim :
___________born outside the UK (%)___from EU (%)
England____15.7______________________5.5
Wales______6.0_______________________2.6
NI_________7.6_______________________4.7
Scotland___9.7_______________________4.8
UK_________14.5______________________5.3
London_____36.9______________________11.0
Kent_______10.4______________________4.0
Fewer yes. Far far fewer? Maybe than london - but not compared to kent where people were trying to block a lifeboat from launching to save drowning immigrants!
Take for example the experience of Irish immigrants to parts of the west coast back in the 19th century. The attitudes of some Scots to those incomers was no better than the attitudes of some English people toady.
And the undertones of that remain today and politicians of all flavours do too little to sort it out.
Thankfully in both cases it’s a small, but vocal, minority of both Scots and English, but I very much disagree with this notion that Scots are somehow morally superior to our cousins down south.
I certainly wouldn't be naive enough to suggest that Scotland was morally superior, and I did say a few pages ago we aren't that different from any other western country (those issues are found even in places like Sweden which is often purported to be some sort of magical place where everyone gets on nicely and cooperates together). But there is a difference, in the same way that Portugal and Spain have differences or France and Belgium, Austria and Germany, Australia and New Zealand, America and Canada. Nobody would seriously suggest that any of them should just merge because they are "close enough", and nobody is scoffing at the Norwegians and Swedes for deciding to separate their kingdoms just over 100 years ago despite to most of the rest of the world their cultures and politics being so similar.
I think there is also a difference – there is no political party jumping on the immigration card here,
Is this chicken or egg tho?
