[Closed] Salmond initiates the pincer movement

Messily if he ends up helping support a minority Labour government. All sorts of people will get very cross if he helps them push through unpopular(*) legislation that only affects english/welsh/NI voters for example.

Which is probably exactly what he wants to do.

(*) With newspaper moguls, that is.

I wonder how the SNP would do if they renamed/rebranded the party to something like the UKNP and put forwards candidates for every seat at Westminster. Thoughts?

I wonder how the SNP would do if they renamed/rebranded the party to something like the UKNP and put forwards candidates for every seat at Westminster. Thoughts?

Please OP not yet another thread

Course, it's by no means guaranteed he'll win in Gordon... I bet one entire scottish pound he wins it comfortably though.

Electoral Calculus have a labour majority as the most likely outcome but Labour/SNP as the second most. Then again their predictions are purely statistical- they reckon a Tory/SNP coalition is more likely than a Tory majority 😆 If only that were true!

It looks like it'll be a pretty strange parliament anyway! Prospect for Labour coalition with SNP or a very weak majority with a Lib Dem coalition... Minority government actually not insane for once because they'd be naturally aligned with the SNP and Lib Dems on many issues anyway.

General sickness of FPTP is likely to be displayed again, current polling has UKIP on 17% but absolutely no seats, Lib Dems with half that and 17 seats, SNP with half that again and 45 seats. Democracy in action... But it won't take much of a swing for UKIP to suddenly start getting a lot of MPs. Which'll be great because they only have about 3 candidates who can be trusted with metal cutlery.

In the same way as the SNP in Scotland have tons of support from people who didn't vote for scottish independence, a party with the same platform in England (other than independence) could probably do pretty well tbh.

I thought the irritating little turd had crawled back under his rock!

General sickness of FPTP is likely to be displayed again, current polling has UKIP on 17% but absolutely no seats, Lib Dems with half that and 17 seats, SNP with half that again and 45 seats.

The SNP is a bit different though, as their support in the areas they'll actually field candidates is being predicted as higher than any other party. Not that I think that vote will stand up at the general election as many SNP supporters have traditionally switched to Labour then, primarily as an anti-Tory vote. So I don't think they'll get 45 seats but they might well get a lot more than they currently have.

Course, it's by no means guaranteed he'll win in Gordon... I bet one entire scottish pound he wins it comfortably though.

The electoral calculus site is predicting a 92.8% chance of an SNP win in Gordon. They're predicting the LibDems dropping from 36% to 16% of the vote and the SNP jumping from 22% to 49% there.

In my consituency, Edinburgh South West, the predicted swing is NuLab dropping from 43% to 37% of the vote and the SNP going from 12% to 38% and winning the seat. Swings like that seem very unlikely to pan out in practice but I can see why Alistair Darling has chickened out of fighting to retain the seat!

Well it will certainly make the next UK elections more entertaining !

I found out something interesting at the weekend. Our MP is a Conservative, but our MSP is Labour. How does that work ?? Seems a big change of mind by the voters from one election to another.

I found out something interesting at the weekend. Our MP is a Conservative, but our MSP is Labour. How does that work ?? Seems a big change of mind by the voters from one election to another.

We've got a Labour MP, a SNP MSP and a Tory councillor.

People in Scotland have often voted differently in the general elections as that's seen as a straight fight between Labour and the Tories. The SNP loses out badly as lots of people that vote for them in the Scottish Parliament elections vote Labour in the UK election as an attempt to keep the Tories out.

Its difficult to imagine who's going to be most unhappy about the decision to stand for Westminster. As he's been running rings around both the main parties for years. Gleefully being a right PITA to the lot of them. But on balnace its probably....

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Interesting that he's setting out his stall out already. Saying he'd never work with the Tories but would be prepared to support a labour minority government on a case-by-case basis, for each vote.

I reckon that the clever little toad is already positioning himself to extract the maximum concessions from Labour for some kind of coalition. Hmmmmmm.... I wonder what those would be?

People in Scotland have often voted differently in the general elections as that's seen as a straight fight between Labour and the Tories. The SNP loses out badly as lots of people that vote for them in the Scottish Parliament elections vote Labour in the UK election as an attempt to keep the Tories out.

This has definitely been the case but I wonder if people in Scotland are now thoroughly fed up with Labour. I've voted Labour in every General Election since 1997. I've voted SNP in every Scottish Election. I won't be voting Labour in the General Election this time though.

While I certainly don't think the SNP will get 40 seats 20-25 seems attainable

This has definitely been the case but I wonder if people in Scotland are now thoroughly fed up with Labour.

The labour party is absolutely bricking it! And rightfully so! A lot of what the SNP are saying and doing is what the labour party should be saying and doing, if it hadn't been hollowed out by Brown and Blair, to become utterly irrelevant Tory-lite(ish). Under Eds incredibly rudderless leadership, the labour party is now totally clueless about what its actually meant to be, and who its meant to represent. Alex doesn't seem to have many doubts on that score. The SNP have now crossed the rubicon into being a serious and credible electoral force. As labour tries to prove that it most definitely isn't.

I seriously think that if the SNP embraced the north of England, and put some MP's up for election, they'd get a good few in there too. Theres loads of votes to be had from people who feel utterly betrayed by labour.

Ask Nigel. He's already fathomed that one out.

Maybe put the weight of the SNP behind a franchise south of the border, advocating the same policies. Given Alex's shrewd eye for mischief making, I'm surprised this hasn't happened in time for the next election. Perhaps if he hadn't been so busy with the referendum. Maybe next time eh?

While I certainly don't think the SNP will get 40 seats 20-25 seems attainable

I agree. I suspect the SNP will be hoping to take more seats than Labour but I'll be surprised if that happens, although it could if the SNP can maintain momentum. There are various reasons why AS will be standing for Westminster again but not least will be wanting to keep the SNP in the press during the election run-up to try and maintain the 45% vote they got in the referendum. While it was no-where near enough to win then, anything remotely like that would be devasating for Labour in the general election.

The labour party is absolutely bricking it!

Given the likelyhood of a Labour led government after the general election I think the sudden decision to stand down from parliament by both Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown is interesting.

What'd be really amusing to me would be if Jim Murphy becomes Scottish Labour leader then lost his seat at the general election. Sadly that seat looks like one that's remaining safe Labour even with the current polling predictions.

Ducks will fall back in line for Labour in Scotland once the risk of another Tory win nears, there's always been a huge 'last minute reality check' in national elections, we saw it with the Lib Dems polling in the run up to the last election not come through in the votes. This applies to UKIPs 17% polling just as much, just watch that fall away in the polling booth.

Ducks will fall back in line for Labour in Scotland once the risk of another Tory win nears, there's always been a huge 'last minute reality check' in national elections

I'm pretty sure it will to some extent, but it'll be interesting to see if support for Labour returns to anything like what'd be needed to return a similar number of MP's as last time. The main thrust of the Labour campaigning will be on the lines of "vote for us if you don't want the Tories" so it's not surprising that the SNP are saying they would shore up a minority Labour government but not a Tory one.

I seriously think that if the SNP embraced the north of England, and put some MP's up for election, they'd get a good few in there too. Theres loads of votes to be had from people who feel utterly betrayed by labour.

Ask Nigel. He's already fathomed that one out.

Maybe put the weight of the SNP behind a franchise south of the border, advocating the same policies. Given Alex's shrewd eye for mischief making, I'm surprised this hasn't happened in time for the next election. Perhaps if he hadn't been so busy with the referendum. Maybe next time eh?

😆

Thank god for the mute button on the remote!

I am very confused about who to vote for. I normally vote for the women, on the grounds that we need more women in parliament, and voting for them seems the best way to make that happen.

Then what do SNP do ? Elect a woman First Minister and a gender balanced cabinet. Sadly I find their stance on Scottish independence increasingly obnoxious, so may have to cease my one issue voting policy, and fall back on how good a haircut the various candidates sport.

Of course, the Conservative party may field a female candidate in my electorate ha ha ha ha ha ha etc.

I know what you mean Hels. I normally vote on the basis on the colour of the tie they wear. You can't even rely on that nowadays. I don't know what the worlds coming too!

I don't know Binners, lady bus drivers wear ties. Get some of them to run for parliament.

They let women drive buses? Are you sure they're not just really well-endowed men? My dad's got a cracking set of thruppenies.

ninfan - Member

Ducks will fall back in line for Labour in Scotland once the risk of another Tory win nears

Not convinced... They're running the "vote SNP, get Tory" line very hard but it loses its force when there's a coalition in Westminster, putting the lie to the idea that you have to give Labour a majority to keep the tories out... and the Tories are still polling worse than Labour anyway, and seem incredibly unlikely to be able to deliver a majority. If that changes I can see it happening but right now, I think most people see it for a poke of shite.

Now vote Lib Dem, get Tory, [i]that's[/i] got wings. But there's no danger of a Tory/SNP coalition, and not that many seats where splitting the vote Labour/SNP will bring in a Tory.