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And back to the point of if there will be an early general election, it doesn't look like it, well certainly not more than a few months early:
"Coinciding with that, the financial assessments are that the picture will be better in autumn 2024 on a worldwide basis. If America reduces interest rates, it's likely Europe and Britain will follow, so an autumn 2024 election is economically more attractive."
At the end of the day the state of the economy will be the most likely deciding factor.
I have concluded that the UK economy hasn’t come to a complete standstill, are you claiming this is false?
According to two quotes from withing that article yes - and its the authors of that article that did the cherrypicking of data points
Nor is the UK outperforming Germany unless you pick your data points carefully as those authors did.
How unhygienic.
It's okay, I wasn't using it as a plate...
Not advised to use it as toilet paper either. Although understandable why some people might consider it.
I have no idea why you think that CNBC is cherry picking data.
Nor is the UK outperforming Germany unless you pick your data points carefully as those authors did.
Would it help if I link to a Guardian article?
Here's some more "cherry picking" for you:
In downbeat forecasts for the world economy, the Paris-based organisation said Europe’s largest economy was likely to be the only G20 country apart from Argentina to shrink this year during a wider international slowdown.
So just Germany and Argentina then.
and they're off again.....
A really valid data set would be quarterly GDP performance from Q1 2016 to Q2 2023 by country covering UK, Germany, France, US, Japan, Australia.
Could also include Argentina if ernie wishes.
I'm not offering to research and produce it but the validity of this data set would come from it starting pre-brexit and then covering the brexit aftermath, comparative effects of covid and a move back towards normality.
This, I believe, would clearly show the UK's dismal economic performance.
The older I get the more I realise that you're all fools.
Could also include Argentina if ernie wishes.
Surely if the OECD wishes?
I don't decide what parameters the OECD uses.
You introduced Argentina.
Information on it's economic performance will have been collected and reported on by the OECD.
molgrips - I may have missed the welsh humour in your recent post but...what?
In response to a point that I didn’t make.
Yeah you did:
they cannot after all govern a nonfunctioning country/economy.
They seem to be attempting to try…
You were clearly suggesting that the Tories were attempting to govern a nonfunctioning country/economy.
I appreciate that it was simply hyperbole and not supposed to be taken seriously but it appeared designed to undermine a perfectly valid point which I was making.
IE massive industrial action would put huge pressure on the government to call an early general election. We have been there before where a Tory government has called an early general election because the country was coming to a standstill due to industrial action.
The current level of industrial action which is limited to one day strikes isn't putting any pressure on the government as all it is causing is inconvenience rather bringing the country to a standstill.
No government anywhere in the world can govern if the people refuse to work.
. We have been there before where a Tory government has called an early general election because the country was coming to a standstill due to industrial action.
When was that? General strike between the wars?
When Ted Heath called an early general election asking the question "who governs the country, the government or the trade unions?"
The reply he got was "not you".
Edit: There really is only two ways to replace a government (other than a coup) through the normal election cycle or through industrial action.
Due to the UK's current lack of militancy we will have to wait until Rishi Sunak decides.
There will not be mass industrial action - leaving aside any legal considerations, not enough employees are sufficiently bothered by any aspect of politics to strike in an attempt to force a GE.
It's not worth considering - outside of activist circles or academic discussions - as it just won't happen in the UK.
The level of political engagement and involvement in the UK mean it's a non-argument so...back to that 'nice Mr sunak'.
When Ted Heath called an early general election asking the question “who governs the country, the government or the trade unions?”
The reply he got was “not you”.
Jeez.
Is that the best you can offer - 50+ years ago and the union/employment 'landscape' has changed beyond all recognition since then.
Interesting to note that Baidu, the Chinese AI company, has recently launched it's ERNIE chatbot...
I’m sorry, I wasn’t aware we weren’t supposed to do that on this forum.
I don't have a problem with you challenging what I post. But I'm not entirely sure why you appear to suggest that you hadn't.
Jeez.
Is that the best you can offer – 50+ years ago and the union/employment ‘landscape’ has changed beyond all recognition since then.
Yes that is all I have got. I didn't claim that governments are regularly brought down by industrial action. It is of course extremely rare. I said that it was possible.
And I made it abundantly clear that the situation vis-a-vis trade unions and industrial action is now massively different to what it was decades ago. How did you manage to miss that? Read what I posted.
Its an unusual interpretation of the end of the heath government. He only just had a majority but did have one and the opinion polls were telling him an election would increase his majority. He gambled on using the strikes as a wedge issue to increase his vote and lost.
Never heard anyone else claim strikes brought the government down especially as the worst of the strikes were over by then IIRC
Are you old enough to remember this Ernie? or are you going off others interpretations?
The country was on a 3 day week! It wasn't able to function because of industrial action. As a consequence Heath called an early general election asking who governs Britian, he didn't get the answer he was hoping for.
If you want to believe there was another reason that Heath called an early general election that's up to you.
that is not the same as strikes bringing the government down. His majority has fallen to a couple of MPs IIRC and he thought going to the polls on that platform would give him a bigger majority. He gambled on it and lost
I have never heard your interpretation of it before.
I don't think you are old enough to remember it? I am
Your googling powers are as great as mine.
The solution? A general election
On 7 February 1974, Prime Minister Edward Heath called a snap election. The February 1974 general election was dominated by the three day working week and miners’ strike as an issue: Heath believed that this was a politically opportune time to hold an election because he thought, broadly speaking, the public agreed with the Tories’ hardline stance on the issue of union power and strikes.
ernie - I read what you said and didn't miss any of it.
Your references to past industrial action and grocer ted are irrelevant to the current situation - and appear to be attempted thread derailment.
Anyway, back to that 'nice Mr sunak' - do you have anything new to say about him?
Well if you didn't miss it why were you telling me that "the union/employment ‘landscape’ has changed beyond all recognition since then" when I had already made that point? Perhaps you couldn't think of anything else to say?
And as for your claim "appear to be attempted thread derailment" that is obviously nonsense. Someone asked the question if Sunak could be forced to call an early general election.
I suggested that mass industrial action which brought the country/economy to a complete standstill is the only way that could really happen, so because that wasn't going to happen Sunak would be totally free to decide for himself when to call the general election.
But because I suggested that the country/economy is not currently at a complete standstill the usual suspects piled on. And of course the usual and predictable screams about brexit.
Anything new to say about Rishi Sunak? Well all the political threads are pretty much the same.....in whoever's honour the thread is, Sunak, Braverman, Johnson, etc, most of the comments boil down to "we hate the Tories" and " *insert name* is evil and thick and stupid".
It would be great if someone had something new to say about Rishi Sunak beyond how useless and thick he is. But what are the chances of that?
Heath believed that this was a politically opportune time to hold an election because he thought, broadly speaking, the public agreed with the Tories’ hardline stance on the issue of union power and strikes.
Which is what I said. Its not the same as a strike bringing down the government . the government did not collapse and / or lose a confidence vote. The opiniion polls told him it was a good time to call one.
Okay TJ if you want to believe that the 3 day week/industrial action didn't bring down the Ted Heath government that's up you. I'm not going debate the point with you.
ernie - a bit thin skinned I think.
You made clear reference to a course of action which, decades ago, mayhave caused a government to call a GE.
Given that, as you acknowledge, it wouldn't happen today what was the point of you even referring to it?
There are many comments I could pass on many subjects but, using political threads as an example, sometimes there is so much tedious verbiage to wade through that I can't be bothered.
Brevity and relevance are always helpful, I'm sure you would agree.
It just showed Rishi’s arrival in Manchester on the news. He walked on to some totally inappropriate ‘down wit da kidz’ music and seriously asked a room full of similar socially awkward weirdo conservatives if they were ‘pumped to be here?!’
Mrs Binners just screwed her face up and said ewwwwwwwwwww
I suspect most of the country did the same. He’s like an even more embarrassing Mark Corrigan, trying desperately to be ‘cool’ and getting it so catastrophically wrong
In other news the ‘Windsor Framework’ has come into play today which means that things are still a total pain in the arse for goods travelling to Northern Ireland but slightly less of a pain in the arse than with Borises deal.
Hurray for Brexit!
Another 60 years and trade with our neighbours will be almost as easy it was before all the nobheads and racists voted for this mind-bogglingly stupid bag of old bollocks
Global Britain eh? Will they spend the week trying to polish that particular turd? Or just try and pretend it hasn’t happened and it’s nothing to do with them anyway
Given that, as you acknowledge, it wouldn’t happen today what was the point of you even referring to it?
I have already told you:
Someone asked the question if Sunak could be forced to call an early general election.
I suggested that mass industrial action which brought the country/economy to a complete standstill is the only way that could really happen
Obviously if I had known the untold grief it would cause I might have thought twice about offering an answer to that question. I doubt that you have noticed but I already engage far less on certain political threads.
That's how it works isn't it..... keep haranguing someone who doesn't comply strictly to the narrow confines of what is decided is the correct point of view until they stop posting and the sterile purity of the political thread is guaranteed?
Yawn.
Untold grief, haranguing - what are you wittering on about?
I normally take very little notice of what you post on any subject; my reference to brevity and relevance explains.
Someone asked the question if Sunak could be forced to call an early general election.
I suggested that mass industrial action which brought the country/economy to a complete standstill is the only way that could really happen
Which, as you acknowledged, would/could not happen today thus rendering your post historically informative but otherwise irrelevant.
I'll leave you to your dreams of a workers' uprising and idealogically pure discussions.
Seriously, is that the best you could come up with?
"ideologically pure discussions"
?
Aside from whether the 1973 miner's strike brought down the Heath govt (thought that was an unarguable fact BTW 🤷♂️), the tory party conference is quite a spectacle. I'm watching the energy secretary make a speech in front of about 30 people who have clearly not had the memo that they're supposed to clap in the awkward silences in between soundbites. Someone should have told her speech writers that adding in gaps for applause only works if there is an audience. 😀
I saw the pictures of James Cleverley, who is apparently the Foreign Secretary, giving his speech. Also to an empty room
Has anyone mentioned 'The Benefits of Brexit' yet?
Has anyone mentioned ‘The Benefits of Brexit’ yet?
The transport secretary started to have a rant about 15 minute cities, and then sky news cut away. Even they've concluded they're a bunch of batshit crazy conspiracy loons.
Even they’ve concluded they’re a bunch of batshit crazy conspiracy loons
James Cleverley said that Labour will give the Falkland Islands to Argentina
Its like they're having a competition to see who can come out with the most batshit, totally made up nonsense.
I reckon Rishi will probably win that one tomorrow
"Aside from whether the 1973 miner’s strike brought down the Heath govt (thought that was an unarguable fact BTW 🤷♂️)"
!) It did not collapse. Heath called an election. No VOC was needed. the government was not " brought down"
2) heath only had a tiny majority and he thought the strikes could be used as a wedge issue to gain seats so he called an election and lost
3) Ernies link agrees with me
ernie - at last, some brevity from you!
It's not that difficult, is it?
I had dismissed your post(s) regarding mass action and grocer ted as totally irrelevant.
As you always want the last word you will, no doubt, wish to respond - yet again.
Anything to say about 'that nice Mr sunak' who, just to remind you, is the subject of this thread?
The alternative leader is about to do her speech. Sky news is running it live and there's way more people there than were in the main hall, inlcuding Nigel Farage. I'm sure Rishi is very happy about that. Keir Starmer must be pissing himself.
We’re sitting on 50 years of sustainable gas apparently.. whatever that means!
Funny isn't it. Cabinet ministers and the PM are ranting about fictional conspiracy shite, Liz Truss the loony is talking about building houses. 🤷♂️
Leadsom on the BBC saying why her (successfully) campaigning for 20mph limits in her constituency is not the same thing as the "war on motorists" where Labour controlled regions are trying to introduce 20mph limits (after elections where they promised to do so). *They* must be stopped.. but in her seat *she* (and the people she represents) must be listened to.
I'm beginning to wonder if Keir Starmer will be fighting the next election against Liz Truss not Rishi Sunak. 😳