Yeah everyone knew that she would be a hopelessly bad PM, and it was obvious that she would be less popular than Boris Johnson.
But no one predicted just how unpopular the Tories would become under Liz Truss, including you Kelvin. Nowhere in that ^^ thread before Truss became PM do you suggest that support for Labour would rise to 50% or more, with the Tories on half of that.
No one predicted the disastrous "mini budget" before it happened. And no one foresaw the level of damage it would do the Tories. Despite your totally unfeasible claim that you, and everyone else, had predicted exactly what happened 😆
In fact as I recall the claim was repeatedly and widely made that it wouldn't matter, in terms of support for the Tories, if the they swung to the right, as apparently the mythical "red wall voters" love that sort of stuff. Unsurprisingly that turned out to be a load of bollox.
No one predicted the disastrous “mini budget” before it happened
True. Even those of us with the very lowest of expectations didn’t think she’d do anything that mental
She surpassed all expectations and then some
Sunaks efforts to try and distance himself from it, as if it was another party that he was nothing to do with, are completely doomed. All anyone has to do is look at their bank statements for a constant reminder
their mortgage payment is now 900 quid a month more than it was this time last year
Supposedly Kwarteng was overheard somewhere complaining that his mortgage payment has gone up…
It doesn’t surprise me. It’s up there with Brexit minister Dominic Raab being surprised to discover that the Dover Calais crossing is quite important to trade with the EU
How the **** did we end up with these clueless simpletons running the country?
Oh yeah…
Sunaks efforts to try and distance himself from it, as if it was another party that he was nothing to do with
Yup, Liz Truss has had a lasting toxic effect on the Tory brand. If they ever fully recover it will take years. I can see a real possibility of UK politics fragmenting.
You can go and find my posts if you want Ernie.
I knew she would be a disaster electorally and politically which is why I wanted her to be PM to eff the tories over good and proper and was disappointed she lasted such a little time - but it had the effect I hoped for and predicted anyway
It was a wee bit suprising how quickly and how deeply it happened but it was totally predictable that is was going to happen
I knew she would be a disaster electorally and politically which is why I wanted her to be PM to eff the tories over good and proper and was disappointed she lasted such a little time – but it had the effect I hoped for and predicted anyway
The slight problem with saying that TJ is that it appears that you were almost hoping for UK-wide financial ruin with the associated negative impacts on savings, mortgage payments, inflation etc.... It's not a great look to be honest.
Yes, she was a disaster but sort of gloating in it doesn't come across well.
IMHO.
I knew she would be a disaster electorally and politically which is why I wanted her to be PM to eff the tories over good and proper and was disappointed she lasted such a little time – but it had the effect I hoped for and predicted anyway
Er, yeah, no one is disputing that. I too said that she would be less popular than Johnson. But no one predicted just how unpopular the Tories would become under her premiership, nor the deep lasting effect it would have.
In fact I was told by some that red wall voters would love the Tories swinging to the right as apparently they are all right-wing racists, something which I have always strongly disputed.
So where did you predict that Labour would be on 50% and the Tories on half of that like in the latest opinion poll TJ? Which was my point when I said that I was surprised just how unpopular the Tories have remained.
I fact I thought you claimed that Keir Starmer's position on the EU was costing Labour support TJ? No?
Here's that poll again which I was initially referring to TJ:
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1694025320628728128
How do you explain 50% support for Labour, if according to you their stance on brexit is costing them votes?
Do you think it should be 60 or 70 percent?
Or are the pollsters completely wrong?
Do we really have to do this again?
the pools show a very unpopular ltory party - its not a positive vote for labour
the labour vote is very soft
yes its 100% true that Stamers absurd and pusillanimous stance on brexit is costing him votes. Polling and recent byelections show this clearly. Labourtr only gains significant votes where there is no pro europe alternative
I myself doubt he will get a working majority at the next GE. watch what happens in the Rutherglen byelection - thats going to be interesting because the local labour candidate is standing on a platform of repudiating several key english labour policies and labour are going to be forced to defend their pro austerity, pro privatization, anti democratic brexiteer stance.
Do we really have to do this again?
Well yes because your claim doesn't stack up. There is no evidence that Starmer's stance on brexit is costing Labour votes.
I myself doubt he will get a working majority at the next GE.
So unlike me you aren't just surprised by the huge unprecedented lead Labour currently has over the Tories, you don't actually believe it.
You reckon that if there was a general election tomorrow Labour would fail to win a majority because Tory support is much higher than it appears?
Or do you reckon the LibDems might end up with as many votes, or more, than the Tories?
there is plenty of data that shows Starmers brexit stance is costing votes. You just do not want to see it because of your huge blindspot over brexit.
the labour vote is very "soft" I do not believe for one moment that will be how it pans out in the election
Look at what its happening in Rutherglen where the local labour candidate has had to repudiate several key labour policies
It all looks very different when you have a pro EU, anti austerity, anti privatization party, pro democracy involved. Starmer is getting a free ride in England over this stuff but he will not be able to in the GE campaign.
You just do not want to see it because of your huge blindspot over brexit.
Blind spot?? You are completely ignoring a poll which shows Labour support on 50% because it doesn't suit your narrative! Talk about hypocrisy!
Whether I think Starmer's stance on brexit is correct or not is completely irrelevant to my opinion of how well Labour are doing in terms of support.
It is clear that I am not a huge fan of Keir Starmer but that doesn't blind me to the fact that Labour are currently riding very high in the polls.
Yes Labour support is soft, basically it reflects just how unpopular the Tories are rather than how popular Labour are. But so what.......does that prove that voters will switch back to the Tories in large numbers on general election day?
Where is the proof that will happen? And where is the proof that it will all be because of brexit, as you claim?
People aren't asked how soft their vote is when they turn up to vote on general election day. If they vote Labour it will be counted as a Labour vote, soft vote or not soft vote.
the pools show a very unpopular ltory party – its not a positive vote for labour
Does that matter at this point?
Does it matter if you lose a few middle class voters if you keep the majority inside?
If I were in Labour management I might well be saying keepmdoing what you're doing. And after you're in power start doing stuff. I mean it's not like a party never changed its mind during a term, is it?
In fact, the "Make Brexit Work" slogan is ideal for this. "Ah well we've done the research and it turns out that we do need to rejoin the CU after all to make Brexit work" etc, or "Now there has been a material change we need to.. " etc
Politics is all about being evasive and upsetting as few people as possible. This demands being as vague as you can be whilst hiding what you really want to do.
My bet is a lot of them will not vote labour but abstain or vote for othe rparties
Rutherglen is going to be really interesting - it needs a 5% swing to labour to take it with the SNP in disarray and a ex SNP MP in disgrace
They will be challenged from the left and from a pro EU position. their candidate has had to repudiate several key labour policies. anything less than a big labour win with a 15% plus swing will show that labour are not on course for a majority
Politics is all about being evasive and upsetting as few people as possible. This demands being as vague as you can be whilst hiding what you really want to do.
Not the view from here( Scotland). truthfullness and honour is widely regarded as positive. mealy mouthed weasel words do not go down well. Look at what is happening in the rutherglan byelection
My bet is a lot of them will not vote labour but abstain or vote for othe rparties
The latest seat prediction based on the current level of support for each party suggests a Labour 272 seat majority, what level of abstention are expecting for that not to happen....50%?
And what other party do you expect voters might support if they don't like Labour's stance on brexit?
Look at what is happening in the rutherglan byelection
I have no idea what is happening in the ruthergan by-election. Are the Tories doing really well? Because Tory support needs in increase very substantially between now and the next general election if they are to rob Labour of a majority.
Edit: I decided to Google Rutherglen by-election to find out what is happening, as suggested by you. This is what I found:
What am I suppose to conclude from that?
It might be informative for you to read up on it.
The local labour candidate has had to repudiate several key labour policies and labour are being pushed hard from the left. The candidate will not try to defend these labour policies. SNP had a 5% lead with the party in turmoil now and a ex SNP mp recalled for criminal behaviour
if labourt do not take it with a big majority it shows how vulnerable they are to attack from the left
if labourt do not take it with a big majority it shows how vulnerable they are to attack from the left
Rutherglen is a safe SNP seat and it would appear that Labour are expected to do well in the forthcoming by-election.
Why do you think this vindicates your claim that Labour are losing votes?
And you realise that the SNP don't stand in 90% of the seats in a general election don't you?
Where do you think this attack from the left might come from?
For Labour not to form the next majority government the Tories have to do reasonably well, where is the evidence to suggest that might happen?
I agree with your claim concerning shy Tories, and I have little doubt that the gap between Labour and the Tories will be much closer come the general election compared to what it is right now.
But the starting point is so huge that it is not feasible to believe the gap will close sufficiently for Labour to be unable to form a majority gov. Currently the gap between Labour and the Tories is actually widening.
I suspect that come the general election the Tories won't get less than 30% and Labour not a lot more than 40%. Although I am not predicting anything, it is just what I think is likely to happen.
Rutherglen is a safe SNP seat
No its not.
I suspect that come the general election the Tories won’t get less than 30% and Labour not a lot more than 40%.
thats firmly in hung parliament territory Labour need a 10% poll lead to be the largest party
the point about Rutherglen is that labour are going to have to defend their stance as brexiteers, anti democracy, pro privitisation pro austerity. all policies that do not go down well with the electorate UK wide. At the moment they are not challenged on this stuff at all. In the GE the neutrality rules will mean that pro EU anti austerity anti privitisation voices have to get a platform and thus labour will have to defend these policies. Rutherglan the local labour candidate has had to repudiate these policies already because he knows that they will cost him his chance
anyway - we will get a telling off from Binners shortly 🙂
Most people don’t give a toss about politics, mainly as the ‘they’re all the same anyway’ attitude is now all-pervasive. They only notice when this stuff imposes itself on their real lives by force.
Pretty much.
Apparently the biggest political issue in the UK is the casting choices of the American entertainment corporation Disney. Snow White being replaced by black trans or something, with the Woke Police coming round to wrestle any 1937 versions of the film out of your hands. Amazing isn't it? grown adults addicted to drama on social media (something they deride young people for) angrily parroting it!
Suppose when your ideology is based upon lies and bullying you've got to reach for more and more ridiculous reasons why you are still right about everything!
No its not.
Okay fair enough, I'll give you that. But with a 5 thousand majority there are plenty of seats more marginal than that.
The link above suggests that Labour are likely to win it, where is the evidence that Labour are losing support?
And why you don't explain who you think Labour are losing votes to? As I said I agree with you that there is an issue with shy Tories, but if they vote Tory on election day it won't be because of Labour's stance on brexit.
anyway – we will get a telling off from Binners shortly 🙂
Nah, I am not currently being in anyway critical of Keir Starmer. Binners won't tolerate what he perceives to be criticism of the current leader Labour leader. He has no problem at all with criticism of the previous Labour leader though.
If I were in Labour management I might well be saying keepmdoing what you’re doing. And after you’re in power start doing stuff. I mean it’s not like a party never changed its mind during a term, is it?
I really don't believe Starmer/Reeves will do that but they could easily if they wanted to as Starmer as promised so little that it would be easy along with fact that a lot of voters don't look that closely at manifestos anyway so wouldn't even know if Labour were doing what they said they would.
As for the polls, we need to remember that the election has started yet so the attacks and undermining of Starmer haven't started. He has made himself open to attacks with so many changes of policy that my attack line would be around inability to trust someone who changes their policy every 10 minutes combined with just copying the Tory party. Plus look at how well the tory party have sorted out inflation (by election time) even though they have Ukraine, Covid, BS, BS, etc,.
Don't over estimate the electorate and let Brexit be a reminder of how easily fooled they are.
Politics is all about being evasive and upsetting as few people as possible
Maybe if we raised our expectations of politicians our lives might improve.
why hasn’t Sunak fired Dories?
LibDems argued this yesterday, they have a point.
why hasn’t Sunak fired Dories?
Because he's so weak that he can't do anything that might ignite another civil war with the loony tunes wing of the party of which Dorres is a member
For normal people the idea of just not bothering to do your job, while expecting to still be paid handsomely for it is absolutely ridiculous, but these are the people that made Boris Johnson PM and that is his life's philosophy
Is Rishi Sunak's voting record any better than Nadine Dorries's?
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25428/rishi_sunak/richmond_%28yorks%29/votes
I can't see that Sunak represents 'another wing of the Tory Party' to Nadine Dorries's.
They both seem to have voted along very similar lines in the past
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11397/nadine_dorries/mid_bedfordshire/votes
Rishi Sunak is very much a fully paid-up member of the headbanger wing of the Tory party. In fact nowadays its easier to ask who isn't?
Its personal rather than policy-based. She loathes him, as not only did he assassinate her hero, he scuppered her elevation to the Lords by said hero.
He's too weak to upset anyone for fear of another civil war breaking out and he probably thinks he can do without another bout of Tory bloodletting. We all could, but since when did they give a flying **** what us lot think?
Parliament’s commissioner for standards said: “Having considered the information available to me, I have decided that the breach of the code appears to have been inadvertent. I confirm that the matter is now closed.”
"Inadvertent" I'll be using that one with the taxman or when I next get pulled for a speeding/motoring offence - funny how for ordinary folk 'ignorance of laws & rules is no excuse'...
The whole thing stinks. Didn't she buy a huge wodge of shares in the childcare company just before it got a very lucrative government contract?
Yes, I'm sure it was just a complete coincidence
<p style="text-align: left;">Rishi Sunak is very much a fully paid-up member of the headbanger wing of the Tory party. In fact nowadays its easier to ask who isn’t?</p>
He always was.
Where did the idea he wasn't come from? Paid-up credentials.
Too much gets lost on personality these days. Tories are only interested in draining the source of money (the state) to their friends - whilst pretending their mates in the private sector are the source of wealth.
There's not much else to it really. Since Thatcher - we had the wholesale dismantling of the state to the private sector which created the growth during the 80s onwards.
No party is now investing in the state to produce the money that Capitalism pulls from, hence a desperate pot of cross-party politicians with zero answers to the problems they created in a blind adherence to shitty economics.
Brain farts (Toynbee, Rawnsley, Hutton -in the Guardian pretending we're not a rich country are not helping the left at all with their dumb-ass analysis.)
As for the Tories - and 'tax cuts' promote growth - good luck with that one. Investment for business is tax deductible anyway.
We're on a road to nowhere.
We’re on a road to nowhere.
Which is why I am fairly optimistic. You cannot keep traveling down a road that leads nowhere. And all the more so when people have an expectation of arriving somewhere.
Hence also the reason why the UK's enormous wealth, relative to other nations, is constantly played down.
What a suprise
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/25/financial-support-double-mps-lose-seats-uk-election
Which is why I am fairly optimistic. You cannot keep traveling down a road that leads nowhere. And all the more so when people have an expectation of arriving somewhere.
Gawd knows why you have that optimism Its not just the UK is on a road to nowhere - its on a blindly obvious destructive path with both labour and Tories supporting that direction of travel and a constant pumping out of propaganda to fool people that that is the only path
Gawd knows why you have that optimism
Because unlike you I look at reality instead of immersing myself in a narrative for which there is no evidence.
It is obvious to most people, although perhaps not you, that it is very unlikely that the UK will have a Tory government in a couple of years time. That imo will be a step in the right direction.
It is obvious that austerity is no longer considered a vote-winning economic argument. The 2010 general election was fought with both the Tories and the LibDems arguing in favour of austerity and balanced budgets, their combined vote represented an electoral majority. Today no one talks about austerity, certainly not directly, as it is now considered to be a dirty word.
It is obvious that the Tories attempt to deflect attention away from their own failures in government by firing up a culture war and focusing on issues such as asylum seekers isn't bringing the political benefits which they might have expected and which has benefited some European governments, such as in Poland and Hungary. I consider this to be a very positive thing.
Sure, Labour isn't offering anything which suggests a comprehensive and radical alternative to the Tories but that doesn't necessarily mean that politics isn't moving in the right direction.
The Tories are now a hugely discredited political party, that for me is the important first step. If Labour attempt to take us down the same road they will meet the same fate. Both the Tories and Labour being discredited in the eyes of the electorate is a good thing imo, I no faith in either of them.
We obviously need a radical alternative to the failed neoliberal experiment. The risk associated with discredited mainstream political parties is of course the possibility of the rise of the far-right. Unlike many other European countries that thankfully seems currently to be a very low risk.
Attempts by the Tories to move the party further to the right, whether economically as in the infamous mini budget, or socially as in attempting to ignite a culture war, have not changed the Tories's fortune.
There are plenty of reasons to be cheerful imo. Although I don't expect to convince you TJ, as you wallow in Private Frazer levels of doom and gloom.
It is obvious that austerity is no longer considered a vote-winning economic argument.
tell labour that 🙂
You know that I tend to choose my words very carefully TJ, I said:
Today no one talks about austerity, certainly not directly, as it is now considered to be a dirty word.
Of course austerity is still considered an option by the Tories, as it is now too by Labour who want to be seen as "responsible" with the economy as the Tories.
But neither can talk about it openly because unlike 13 years ago the electorate won't buy it.
I consider this to be a very good thing.
why hasn’t Sunak fired Dories?
He is pretty much powerless against her though. The only thing really in his control is to remove the whip which only matters if you want to stand as candidate in the next election.
I think there is a chance of her going fairly soon since that will put the byelection either just before or during the tory party conference to cause maximum irritation to Sunak.
Today no one talks about austerity, certainly not directly, as it is now considered to be a dirty word.
The most wretched thing about austerity is there was no actual austerity - Tory government's spent plenty of money - just not on the good stuff.
You see the money is always there but it's used a wrecking ball on all of us, both parties are playing this game currently. We should demand more and put them right at every opportunity that there is no lack of money.
Journalists such as Peston simply don't do their job when it comes to government finances. Only Andy Verity of the mainstream reporters has gone into detail about this.
The BBC even conducted an internal report on their economic language - the UK government 'running out of money.' They concluded not to talk about it like that where possible as it was helping create an inaccurate understanding of the economy.
We will simply get austerity by the back door this time. Fact is - both parties waiting for the economy to magically grow is the daftest most illogical position to take. One which Reeves is stuck in an echo chamber on.
We obviously need a radical alternative to the failed neoliberal experiment. The risk associated with discredited mainstream political parties is of course the possibility of the rise of the far-right. Unlike many other European countries that thankfully seems currently to be a very low risk.
And here is the really depressing news:
"Over the past year, support for the anti-immigrant, pro-Russian Alternative for Germany party (AfD) has nearly doubled to more than 20 percent in POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, a record.
The party is now in second place, just five percentage points behind the center-right Christian Democrats."
A party, led by a man which the German courts have decided it is fair to call a Nazi, is now the second most popular party in Germany. When have we seen that before?
"In fact, a German prosecutor in Hesse determined last month that demonstrators were well within their rights to call Höcke a “Nazi.” That follows a 2019 ruling by a German court that Höcke could reasonably be referred to as a “fascist” during an organized protest."
And yes, at the heart of the rising public appeal of Germany's far-right Nazi party is (yet again) an economic crisis. As always foreigners and those with a minority cultural background are being used as scapegoats.
But neither can talk about it openly because unlike 13 years ago the electorate won’t buy it.
I consider this to be a very good thing.
Both labour and tories are still saying the same thing just using different words for austerity - and you think using weasel words to try to disguise this is a good thing?
Not the view from here( Scotland). truthfullness and honour is widely regarded as positive. mealy mouthed weasel words do not go down well.
Just because thats the attack vector people are using doesn't make my statement any less true. Politicians vary but they all have to do whatever it takes to win votes, and they will. Otherwise they don't get to be politicians.
Everyone wants their politicians to have honesty and integrity. The problem is that the ones who don't have those characteristics are good at persuading people that they do. Or convincing them that the opposition don't. And they have no qualms about doing either.
and you think using weasel words to try to disguise this is a good thing?
Absolutely! In the 2010 general election campaign the Tories talked openly about the alledged need for austerity.
Labour had quite correctly built up a substantial deficit to deal with an unprecedented global banking crises. It was one of the reasons why despite the greatest economic crisis since the 1930s most people felt relatively little pain - unemployment and home repossessions didn't reach the levels they had previously had in recent history.
The Tories and the LibDems between them successfully convinced the majority of voters, with devastating consequences, that austerity was absolutely necessary to clear the deficit over the period of one parliament.
There will be no talk of the need for "austerity" in the next general election campaign. If the next Tory or Labour government implements austerity measures it will only be after they have lied or misled voters. That has to be immeasurably more desirable than having the backing of voters for failed and cruel right-wing economic policies.
Point missed Ernie
Both labour and tories are promising austerity - just using different words. Both have made it clear thats their policy.