What have the conservatives done to increase by 2 points? Is that a problem with polls or the idiots who respond to them?
A 14 point lead for Labour is not that great is it given the state of the tory party and 13 years of shit. That could easily go down to single digit once the election machine and media gets going.
Opinium's methodology tends to favour the Tories more than other pollsters. I believe that they make some allowance for the shy Tory factor. I suspect that a 14% Labour lead is more realistic than a 25% Labour lead.
And if a 14% Labour lead isn't considered that great then it is a reflection on how much things have changed in British politics. A 14% lead is huge - the Labour landslide victory of 1997 was the result of a 12% Labour lead over the Tories.
As for why the 2% increase since the previous Opinium poll, UK pollsters margin of error is about plus or minus 3% so if a pollster was carrying out two identical polls simultaneously at the same time I would expect something like a 2% discrepancy.
Although other factors might be responsible for a slight change in support, eg, no significantly bad recent news on the economy.
And if a 14% Labour lead isn’t considered that great then it is a reflection on how much things have changed in British politics. A 14% lead is huge – the Labour landslide victory of 1997 was the result of a 12% Labour lead over the Tories.
Remember the the election machine hasn't started yet and the tories will be a lot better at it than "U turn" Starmer who can't be trusted as you can never believe a word he says.
I am 55, nothing has changed in my view of British politics. The point is that if come election Stamrer only wins by single digit % that is not that great is it given the competition.
Remember the the election machine hasn’t started yet
Well yes, I am aware of that, which is why I believe that Opinium's 14% lead is likely to be more realistic than other pollsters claims of a 25% Labour lead.
Braverman hasnt even bothered to disguise her own leadership bid for months now, openly voicing opinions which totally contradict government policy (on leaving the ECHR for example), knowing full well that Rishi is too week to sack her
Now Mordaunt is getting her own bid firmly underway, again without even bothering to disguise it
Rishi is a dead man walking. The only question is are they really that unhinged that they’ll try and depose him now or wait until he’s lost the election?
In the meantime, we don’t really have a functioning government, do we? We’re in limbo, waiting for the inevitable, while Rishi tries desperately to postpone it, but seriously… why bother? To what end?
We’re in limbo, waiting for the inevitable, while Rishi tries desperately to postpone it, but seriously… why bother? To what end?
Bit more public money to be had first.
After all, they're on lovely high 80k salaries plus unlimited expenses which is going to disappear when they lose their seats, why hasten that?!
Few more extensions to build, moats to be cleaned, ducks to be fed, bit more travel on the Government jet, plus some time to line up their forthcoming Non-Exec Director roles. Also, the papers need some time to really fire up the anti-Starmer rhetoric.
We’re in limbo, waiting for the inevitable, while Rishi tries desperately to postpone it, but seriously… why bother? To what end?
So they can reward more dodgy contracts to the usual suspects.
So they can rip up the NHS even more, so that when Labour get in it's almost impossible to get right and line up further for more privatisation.
If Braverman took the leadership, then surely that means a complete wipeout at the next election? The majority of people in this country are not far right loons, there may be a small, very vocal minority but that's about it.
£80k isn’t that much to a Tory MP
It isn't that much to a lot of people but the difference is I don't have all the other benefits such as dodgy deals, future guarantees of money/jobs, nice little earners etc,.
In the meantime, we don’t really have a functioning government, do we?
That's nothing new, it's been the case since May's tenure!
The pool of talent, if you can call it that, just keeps on getting more shallow...
The tory party are like a bunch of hippos fighting over a slowly drying up pool of mud.
I mean... Braverman or Mordant? What a choice!
At least sunak makes an attempt to give off an air of competence.
Talent perhaps you don't want in a minister of the crown ?
Braverman hasnt even bothered to disguise her own leadership bid for months now
But surely she doesn't want the job now anyway. Far better to watch Sunak be defeated at the GE, and then launch a leadership campaign on a platform of returning to true Thatcherite values, not the wet Tory nonsense that lost us the election. Then she's got 5 years in power opposite Starmer, and a chance of actually winning next time.
But surely she doesn’t want the job now anyway
I think you’re hugely underestimating just how stupid she is
Talking of stupidity and people completely unfit for high office, this makes for gob-smacking reading in yesterdays Guardian… the inside track of Liz Truss’s catastrophic 40-odd days in office
She’s totally lost it’: inside story of the unravelling of Liz Truss’s premiership
Oh
'Sunak halved schools repair budget in 2021'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-66701626 ?
not the back from holidays headline Sunak Wanted
just read the truss link above
wonder how it compares to the mood in No10 now?
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/sep/04/england-crumbling-schools-rishi-sunak-repairs-civil-servant
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I think you’re hugely underestimating just how stupid she is
But the way she held that sword! Pure PM material!
just read the truss link above
wonder how it compares to the mood in No10 now?
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/sep/04/england-crumbling-schools-rishi-sunak-repairs-civil-servant
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If it’s dishing out fat contracts to cronies then billions can be found, fixing schools, not so much
I wonder how many Tory donors are presently registering new companies in the Caymen Islands named School Roof Repairs LTD, ready for the taxpayer-funded taps to be turned on?
I wonder how many Tory donors are presently registering new companies in the Caymen Islands named School Roof Repairs LTD, ready for the taxpayer-funded taps to be turned on?
Nah thats actual work even with subcontracting the actual work there will be some standards required.
The money will be in the portacabins and marquees.
Just another day in Toryland…. toxic little inadequate ‘Sir’ Frank Spencer joins the massed ranks of bullies
https://twitter.com/nazirafzal/status/1698629282895892552?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
X-Free link : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66706287
Former cabinet minister Sir Gavin Williamson has been told to apologise after an parliamentary inquiry found he had bullied a colleague in texts.
Sir Gavin quit as a minister last year after sending expletive-laden texts to former Tory chief whip Wendy Morton.
In the texts, Sir Gavin accused Ms Morton of excluding some MPs from the Queen's funeral in September last year.
He did announce a "new ten year programme"... no claims that it was a better funded plan than what it replaced, or that it came close to what he was told was required (on safety grounds, never mind suitability grounds). In fact, no denial that it meant less funding and fewer new schools. So not really "a lie", just more deflection. There's mountains of it coming from Tories this morning.
Head master of the school I can see from the window (and both my kids went to)... essential viewing... from June this year, but this has all been known for years...
He did announce a “new ten year programme
I think we can immediately file that alongside the 40 new hospitals, a nuclear power station a year, ‘Global Britain’ and all the other tenuous bullshit that was never intended to be anything more than tomorrows headlines
He’s even more full of shit than Boris and that pathetic ‘interview’ is just pure gaslighting
kelvin - for clarity, sunak isa liar on this subject and many others.
He is not that 'nice mr sunak'.
I love the maths of the rebuttal.
Accused of slashing the funding from the existing 100 schools down to 50 a year, instead of the 200-400 he was told was required, he says that this is ‘completely and utterly wrong’ then immediately says his ‘ten year plan’ would mean 500 schools refurbished over ten years
So… pay attention at the back kids… 500 schools, refurbished over ten years, means how many schools are refurbished each year?
Show your working out in the margins…
I mean… FFS! Seriously?! That’s his ****ing defence?!
He’s very thin skinned if his response is to say it’s wrong to blame him. He is the PM, the buck stops with him, and he should be expected to find a way out of this problem, not whinge that he’s been criticised.
Maybe he could start by diverting the budget for renovating the House of Commons towards the schools.
Gillian Keegan is upset no one has patted her on the back and said "good ****ing job". the self entitlement of these cretins is off the chart.
https://twitter.com/supertanskiii/status/1698684003463676393
The Labour Press Office will no doubt be thanking her for doing such a great job in just a few minutes
The last few weeks really have been absolutely clown-show stupidity from top to bottom
Sky News are presently properly taking the piss, saying ‘we’ve no idea who Gillan Keegan could possibly be referring to as sitting on their arses, doing absolutely nothing, but I’m sure we’ll probably find out in due course…’ while openly s****ing 😂
It really is just one long episode of the Thick Of It with these morons.
EDIT: number 10 has just issued a statement with the dreaded ‘vote of confidence’ in Gillian Keegan. Maybe they’ll bring Gavin Williamson back as education secretary?
Sunak looks utterly sick of his job in this clip. Given rumours of no confidence letters going in and now Keegan's comical lack of self-awareness I wouldn't be surprised if he calls an election to put them out of their misery.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1698695311185907892?s=20
https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1698681664174497855
Ill bet Keegan does show up, she seems to have the arrogance & lack of self-awareness to try & brazen it out
I think Ian Dunt at the i has won the internet today and I have a new favourite phrase. Malcolm Tucker would take his hat off to that one 😂
https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1698706897694560697?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Keegan saying she is "very detail orientated" in the R4 interview this morning made me laugh - the main detail she is renowned for is being late for stuff because doing her hair takes so long.
rumours of no confidence letters going in
Oooh, come on, do it!
We haven't had a leadership battle for months!
Amazing that we have a political crisis that's happened all by the democratic process. It's not some kind of external crisis or armed conflict or anything, it's done purely by the electorate!
So gillian keegan expects thanks and gratitude - for being vaguely competent in doing part of her job.
Hmmm - get real love.
Who in their right mind would want that job? I know the Tory hierarchy is packed full of deluded mentalists but it’s akin to stepping front of a bus. C’mon Ri$hi, call an election!
Sunak looks utterly sick of his job in this clip.
Flip comment made in today's Bunker Start The Week that the GE is waiting for him to have lined up a job in Silicon Valley.
What is worse - going down in history as a temporary leader of Tory party (probably forgotten) or actually being held responsible for losing the election?
or actually being held responsible for losing the election?
I'm not sure he'll get to the next election. Think the tories will go for broke and try and install Mordaunt in October when Sunak's had his year's grace. He's clearly exhausted and no longer wants to be in the job, his 5 promises and summer campaigns on them have been a miserable failure, and he's becoming the focus of Labour attacks on the concrete fiasco. There's nothing left for them to lose.
I’m not sure he’ll get to the next election.
Seems on point for this bunch of half wits and scammers.
Think the tories will go for broke and try and install Mordaunt in October when Sunak’s had his year’s grace.
And get Braverman by mistake instead...hopefully.
Why would Mordaunt, who appears to have a brain of sorts, want a job where the only outcome is a swift electoral oblivion?
She would want the job AFTER the election, provided she still has a seat.
Rishi probably could be forgiven for thinking that he might be able to turn it around a bit, but from now on, the only competitors in this particular game of pass the shitty parcel are either those who just want the 'I was PM' badge, or who are spectacularly dumb.
You might be right about them going for broke and another leadership election - it’s hardly like they’ve got any credibility left to lose, after all - but Mordaunt would have no chance
The conclusion that the headbangers on the Tory backbenches and the party membership have already reached is that they're where they are in the polls because Rishi is virtually a socialist
The next leader, in a Truss-like landslide (because that went so well) will be Braverman or Badanoch as the party heads off into far right extremism
Think the tories will go for broke and try and install Mordaunt in October when Sunak’s had his year’s grace
Does he have one?
I thought thats only for those PMs who have had a leadership challenge and won?
Even then its a convention which can be changed.
And get Braverman by mistake instead…hopefully.
Yeah that would be hilarious. Total wipeout territory if Braverman leads them into an election. Starmer will be saying prayers to the political gods before he goes to bed at night.
With Mordaunt though I think they could limit their losses. Would probably be a quick election too, doubt she'd want to wait for everything to start unravelling as it has with Sunak. In fact if the tory grey suits ask her to be leader she could insist on an early election so that she can remain as leader and start to clean up the mess after they lose.
I'm pretty sure the tories have come to the conclusion that the sooner they accept they're done and start the rebuild they better off they will be.
Even a brief stint as PM for Braverman would bring misery to people and families throughout the country, personally I don't think the political gain is worth the real life collateral damage.
I'm reading this currently
It's well worth it to remind yourself of the full horror of what having this bunch of ****s in power has done. I can honestly only read it in half hour chunks though as otherwise my blood pressure rises to dangerous levels
With Mordaunt though I think they could limit their losses. Would probably be a quick election too, doubt she’d want to wait for everything to start unravelling as it has with Sunak.
The question is whether the deal is that Mordaunt takes over for a 'honeymoon' election campaign, limits the losses, and is therefore seen as a reasonable bet to be allowed to stay on and fight again next time. My guess is that she would have no confidence that the usual headbangers wouldn't just force her out.
Either way, a snap election still seems a possibility, although it requires the Tories to have a scandal-free week to give them the run-up, which is a big ask.
Rishi probably could be forgiven for thinking that he might be able to turn it around a bit, but from now on, the only competitors in this particular game of pass the shitty parcel are either those who just want the ‘I was PM’ badge, or who are spectacularly dumb.
So that's the vast majority of the party who will be fighting like rats in a sack to get the job
Even a brief stint as PM for Braverman would bring misery to people and families throughout the country, personally I don’t think the political gain is worth the real life collateral damage.
Very much this. She's a headbanger of the highest order and would be worse for us than the Trusster****
I'm really hoping for the snap election, but with the way things have been going we'll have to wait the full term to get rid of these bastards. My biggest worry at the moment is them doing something even slightly well and regaining a big chunk of support
So that’s the vast majority of the party who will be fighting like rats in a sack to get the job
But hopefully not the ones who might actually have some positive electoral impact for the party. Lee Anderson for PM!
The thought of one of these headbangers running the country is revolting, but at this point I'm wondering which of these scumbags would deliver the most extra seats for Labour at an election.
When I was studying Italian century political history, it was heavy going with all the various republics and new government a week. In future out descendants will struggle to understand what was happening with Cameron-May- Johnson- Truss-Sunak-???
Despite how desperate some of them are for the top job, are they that delusional that they think they can take over and turn it round in a year?
Even a brief stint as PM for Braverman would bring misery to people and families throughout the country
There's almost nothing she can do in 6 months that will have much impact. She won't be able to pass any legislation, and the sensible tories (there are still some left) would (probably) prevent a suicidal Truss-like budget by refusing to vote it through. I reckon if Braverman became the PM the govt would collapse very quickly as the non-extreme wing of the tories would support a no-confidence vote.
I’m pretty sure the tories have come to the conclusion that the sooner they accept they’re done and start the rebuild they better off they will be.
Honestly I don't think they have. I genuinely don't think they have the capacity for that sort of self reflection. I'm pretty sure they all think they're doing a bang up job. See for example; only yesterday the Education sec; Gillian Keegan (the 6th in about 18months) wondering aloud why folks don't actually congratulate her for a job well done...
Honestly I don’t think they have.
I'm talking more about the backbenchers, grey suits and party elders rather than the current incumbents.
Braverman already has free reign in terms of curtailing civil liberties, harming some of the most vulnerable people in the country, and trashing our international human rights record. I suppose it's conceivable she could try to crash us out of ECHR before the election, but I'm guessing the most she could do would be to have a series of batshit manifesto pledges.
There’s almost nothing she can do in 6 months that will have much impact.
Truss managed to completely wreck everything in 42 days.
God only knows what she'd have done given 6 months!
Truss managed to completely wreck everything in 42 days.
The non-extreme wing wouldn't allow Braverman to do anything close to what Truss did. As I said, they'd vote through a no-confidence vote before allowing something like that to happen again. That's why I doubt Braverman has a chance of becoming leader, there are enough tories opposed to her that the far right wing know they wouldn't be able to win a confidence vote.
wreck everything in 42 days.
Wasn't the government effectively suspended for about half of that?
She won’t be able to pass any legislation
True for primary legislation, but you can make a pretty mess with secondary legislation as well - e.g. all the changes to student loans over the past decade have been secondary.
can't see them changing now, the parliamentary party don't trust the membership to give them the result they want so it would have to be another no contest "arrangement" so a compromise candidate would have to found 😕
a compromise candidate would have to found
Grant Shapps.
He's had 5 Cabinet positions in 12 months, why not go for the top job!
😉
sunaks new comms person is having a good week
https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1698993843121594833
That infographic is marvellous.
I can't imagine Mordaunt would want the job at this point, it's too toxic, I don't think she's that desperate or deluded.
My track record on predicting such things isn’t great though.
I'm hoping the Tories keep the same comms team for the election campaign.
I can’t imagine Mordaunt would want the job at this point
Currently she's well regarded for being able to hold a quite heavy sword for a long time in a church ceremony without needing to resort to painkillers. As far as it goes if you're a Tory that's pretty much as good as it gets. I don't suppose for a minute she's want to besmirch that reputation - which let's face it, is what's she's going to use to get re-elected*, by doing anything as grubby as working in Govt.
* Is she standing again? Honestly so many of them are running away, it's hard to keep up.
I don’t suppose for a minute she’s want to besmirch that reputation
Almost certainly. But if/when the grey suits ask her to step in as the leader of last resort she's going to find it very difficult to say no. It'll be a do it now or give up on any future ambitions situation. If not her then I can see Jeremy Hunt becoming PM by default.
If not her then I can see Jeremy Hunt becoming PM by default.
I'd rather she got it than Voldermort's soul's holiday home TBH.
Current polling, which I can't see applying in an actual general election, has Labour gaining Penny Mordaunt's seat. But even so, she'll have to fight to hang onto it.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?postcode=PO6+3EN
The haunted pencil/ghost of Canterbury house has been quiet as of late..
Or maybe it's just he realises what side his bread is buttered on...
How many honours lists can they squeeze in before the next election? Plus juicy pensions for everyone in any cabinet shuffle.
The haunted pencil/ghost of Canterbury house has been quiet as of late..
I reckon Rishi has him bound in duct tape and locked under the stairs