All the chatter on Susan Hall is a bit premature, as they’ve not even started counting
The latest jitters appears to be based on a low turnout. Although 40.5% is 1.5% lower than the last mayoral election turnout it isn't a huge difference and it certainly isn't the lowest turnout for a London mayoral election.
And I'm not sure why it would necessarily benefit Susan Hall. Of all the political parties the demoralised Tories must have surely have had the most trouble motivating their voters to get off their arses yesterday?
Sure their hardcore supporters will have voted but its not them who are going to make a difference, its the ones that didn't vote for them in 2021.
35% turnout seems to be the critical number for turnout from what I'm seeing, above which Sadiq becomes increasingly more likely
Although I admit I'm struggling to follow the logic fully
35% turnout seems to be the critical number for turnout from what I’m seeing, above which Sadiq becomes increasingly more likely
Turnout in the East Midlands County Combined Authority mayoral election was 28% overall (across Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire). Some areas crept up to mid/high 30's % - surprisingly the more Tory areas.
Some places were down at 20% turnout.
It's a weird area actually. Nottingham is strongly Labour/Remain.
Nottinghamshire as a county is strongly Tory/Leave. So some areas had a high Tory vote but it didn't come close to cancelling out Labour's share.
A lot of spoiled papers as well, about 2% in the Police & Crime Commissioner election (also won by the Labour candidate).
Lots of swearing, some drawings of cocks, various anti-police slogans... The Mayoral election had one paper with:
"Rishi is a rat-faced xxxx" written across it (with xxxx being a word that rhymes with hunt).
Several saying "none of the above" or "you're all xxxx"
Now this makes sense:
"There is no doubt that in a low turnout the most motivated voters were the ones angry about Ulez.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sadiq-khan-london-mayor-hall-b2539260.html
Apparently the areas with the higher turnouts are Tory areas. Which coincidentally are also the areas that were most likely affected by the ulez expansion.
Starmer did ask Khan to rethink his ulez expansion last summer during a cost of living crisis but apart from the scrappage scheme Khan was adamant that he wouldn't, I hope that he didn't miscalculate.
Although with the most Tory favourable poll on the eve of the election still giving him a 10% lead I doubt that he has.
I thought I was being clever and compared 21 to 24 mayor turnout
kahn was down 2.2% on average and hall up 1 on Bailey's turnout
this guy went way further and mapped turnout onto vote numbers from last time
by his count its could be very close, with inner city turnout down more than outer is up
https://twitter.com/MarwanData/status/1786450654162014587?t=1hSEUbgGuOsqqBR7i0Xteg&s=19
of course change to fptp has thrown a lot of into the air
hard to know how people voted without a 2nd pref available , but it could be very tight, potentially very few votes in it!
As much as I hope Khan gets back in, it'd quite likely be a phyrric victory for the Tories if Hall gets in- it's only a tiny ray of sunshine in a couple of days of crushing defeat for the party, it loses them one of their favourite punchbags and most polarising and racist-mobilising targets, and Hall herself is an absolute nightmare even for her friends.
But it'd be nicer not to have to find out
it’d quite likely be a phyrric victory for the Tories if Hall gets in
Maybe. But there's 800,000 children living in poverty in London, and it's then that will ultimately bear the brunt of an extremist like Hall being elected. 😱
I like this comment:
The Tory campaign had a simple strategy (“It had to be simple,” according to one Conservative activist, “otherwise Susan would have struggled to understand it”), and that was: throw enough mud and some of it will stick.
https://insidecroydon.com/2024/05/03/with-48-turn-out-in-outer-london-khans-team-gets-the-jitters/
If the Tories won the London Mayoral election it would be huge imo. The London Mayor has the largest personal mandate of any UK politician. It would provide the Tories with a massive boost and represent a significant setback for Labour. There have been polls in recent months predicting that the Tories could lose every single seat in London so winning the Mayoral contest would be an impressive reversal of fortune.
Having said that the spectacle of Susan Hall being in the media limelight might do as much good for the Tories as Liz Truss did/does.
of course change to fptp has thrown a lot of into the air
Absolutely. And voters have been used to being able to both express their true preference, and vote to prevent the worst candidate. This time, for the first time when directly electing the Mayor, many had to choose one or the other. If she gets in, and London is saddled with a Mayor who clearly cares not one jot for social cohesion, public health or the environment… I hope those who chose do use their vote to make a point, rather than stop her, are happy with that.
Chippenham didn’t have council elections this time around, they took place last year, and the Libdems walked away with most seats. Come the GE, and I can see the incumbent Tory MP getting her ass kicked out of office. Her actual office in town has oddly closed and moved somewhere low-profile; can’t for the life of me figure out why… It’s Michelle Donelan, if anyone’s interested. 😏
Pretty nuts that Tories are 3rd party by no of councillors
Green doing well too but the BBC seems to be focused on interviewing Reform bellends rather than anyone from Green.
I spoke briefly to the Green candidate for EMCCA Mayor (who, if you took the Nottingham votes alone actually was second, he got a great response within the city).
Although he looks a bit of a hippy, he was articulate, passionate and intelligent, he came across well.
But oh no, they'd rather get an interview with 30p Lee. 🙄
The bookies odds are still looking very long on Susan Hall.
Do people on here know something the bookies don't or should I be putting a tenner on it?
the bonkers thing is the tories actually believe their own spin!
Let's face it, they all still believe that Brexit was a wonderful idea.
It's a mix of delusion and utter stupidity. The current crop of Tories are all there because they're Brexiteers - all the sane ones got purged during Johnson's reign when he had to create a Government based on the idealogy of Brexit, in spite of no-one really knowing what it was or should be.
What started as a wonderful sailing ship, the SS Great Britain with lots of former Red Wall MPs on board, is now a barely floating wreck being tossed around in the sea of reality. The marginally smarter Tories have managed to find a life vest in the shape of Reform or GB News grifting and have abandoned ship.
The dumb ones are still clinging to the remnants of their once mighty ship, fervently believing that it's still a magnificent sailing vessel destined for greatness if it can just hold on over the next wave and occasionally having fights over who gets to hold the rudder next.
Meanwhile Rishi is there clinging to the remains of the rudder informing everyone that he's definitely got a plan and he's steering the ship dutifully - while ignoring the shouts that there's a massive rock called General Election just up ahead.
I hope those who chose do use their vote to make a point, rather than stop her, are happy with that.
Interesting that you are hoping to shame people into voting the way you want rather than hoping the Labour party finds some way of addressing the concerns that led to people to not vote the way you want.
The Greens took 34/70 seats in Bristol so within a whisker of overall control. Remarkable.
Interesting that you are hoping to shame people into voting the way you want rather than hoping the Labour party finds some way of addressing the concerns that led to people to not vote the way you want.
thats a feature of fptp, with a binary outcome votes for smaller parties are wasted
Which is why the Tories just changed back to fptp for mayoralty votes
votes for smaller parties are wasted
But presumably only if the votes they get don't go to your preferred party. I doubt that many people who voted Green on Thursday, for example, feel that their vote was wasted. In fact given how the Greens preform I suspect that they are mostly satisfied.
the bonkers thing is the tories actually believe their own spin!
Some hapless Tory drone was just on Radio 4, having drawn the short straw and been sent out to deliver the ‘Ridhi’s plan is working’ repeatedly
It was then pointed out to him that they’ve just lost control of councils that have ALWAYS been Tory
thats a feature of fptp, with a binary outcome votes for smaller parties are wasted
And yet UKIP/Reform voters have been driving the direction of the country for the last 15 years.
Tories chase Reform voters. Labour chase Tory voters. Green chase Labour voters.
Everyone ends up chasing the votes to the right of them and before you know it you're out of the EU and living through some neo-liberal hellscape. And the boiling a frog nature of the process means many people don't even notice.
In terms of direction of the country, UKIP/Reform voters have achieved more than any other group.
But presumably only if the votes they get don’t go to your preferred party. I doubt that many people who voted Green on Thursday, for example, feel that their vote was wasted. In fact given how the Greens preform I suspect that they are mostly satisfied.
i should have added the caveat 'in a tight race'
as I said there's very good reason there Tories wanted fptp ,
i should have added the caveat ‘in a tight race’
I would argue that voting for 'no hoper' parties in tight races is more important.
If the chances of a majority are hanging by a thread then where the lost votes are going is very very important and the desires of a handful of voters can drive the direction of an entire city or even an entire country.
Isn't FPTP brilliant!
Just looking at our local results and I’m sure this will make some nice reading in the MEN for our local Tefal-headed cockwomble and deputy of the Tory party, James Daly.
A sign of things to come. Hopefully as soon as possible, tick tock..
“There were scenes of jubilation as Labour sprung a major upset in Bury. Mirroring the success the party enjoyed nationally, the shock win in North Manor saw the party make further inroads into the Conservatives' traditional heartlands.
A huge roar from those in red rosettes greeted the announcement that John Southworth had toppled Conservative Liam Dean following a dramatic recount. The result is believed to be the first time a Labour councillor has ever been elected in what is historically a Tory stronghold previously held by Bury North MP James Daly.”
😃
According to Sky News despite "wild rumours" both Labour and the Tories believe that Sadiq Khan has "clung on".
If the best that he can do, in a Labour stronghold, under the present political climate, is to cling on to power, then it will surely be time for him to pass the baton to someone else next Mayoral election.
On the other hand, if the Tory candidate hadn’t been a total disaster zone Lab might have campaigned harder?
The last Tory mayoral candidate was a disaster too, it was as if the Tories accepted that they stood no chance and just put up a token candidate, and yet Sadiq Khan only beat him by less than 5% in the first round.
If Kier Starmer hadn't reacted to Uxbridge by saying "yeah, this ULEZ is all a bit crap, innit, what idiot approved that?" instead of supporting Khan and articulating why ULEZ is the solution thr country's biggest city needs, maybe a one trick pony like Hall would have gained less traction.
So it's Starmer's fault that Sadiq Khan isn't as popular as he should be?
Well apparently what’s going on in Palestine is Starmers fault, so I don’t see why he should get away with this.
Its also rumoured he was personally responsible for the fact that you can no longer buy Worcester sauce flavour Wheat Crunchies, and if that’s true then I’ll have to question my own vote at the general election
It's begun. Some no name minister on BBC Breakfast just saying (unchallenged) that a vote for Labour at the GE would mean "the most left wing government in history" and "an amnesty for immigrants". The attack lines and who they're trying to appeal to are pretty clear.
I doubt that many people who voted Green on Thursday, for example, feel that their vote was wasted.
Quite. Twenty years ago, there were no Green councillors in Bristol, now it's by far the largest party. That would never have happened if people listened to the usual nonsense that they were wasting their vote.
I expect the culture war bullshit will go in to overdrive now that they know how bad things really are
Rishi will bottle it now and postpone a general election until the last possible moment, leaving 6 months of ‘Labour will make you take a trans, muslamic, terrorist immigrant into your house and let them eat your cat’ nonsense
So it’s Starmer’s fault that Sadiq Khan isn’t as popular as he should be?
That's unknowable but I don't think he should be publicly undermining the most powerful Labour politician currently in office.
the bonkers thing is the tories actually believe their own spin!
Posted 3 hours ago
Fake it till you make it
That’s unknowable but I don’t think he should be publicly undermining the most powerful Labour politician currently in office.
If Starmer's relationship with Khan is affecting Khan's popularity with Londoners it is likely to be because Khan is seen as being too close to Starmer.
It is widely being accepted that the one issue which had a negative effect on Labour's vote on Thursday was its stance over what Israel is doing in Gaza. Despite being a Muslim, and calling for a ceasefire early, Khan is seen by many of the 15% of Londoners who are Muslim as a Labour establishment figure. His closeness to Starmer significantly adds to that perception. And undoubtedly a major factor if the Greens have done well at Labour's expense.
And btw:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/greater-london-ulez-londoners-tories-mayor-b2514438.html
More than the Brexit margin you were so enthusiastic about. 😉
I have never expressed any enthusiasm for the "Brexit margin".
If you go back through this thread you will see that yesterday I remarked, concerning any Khan victory, quote:
"Whether he wins by ten votes or a hundred thousand makes no difference to his powers as London mayor"
@binners He’s made a huge tactical blunder by waiting until after the LEs though. There are now a whole load of disillusioned ex-Councillors and local party members who will be nursing a grudge and may not bother to campaign come GE time, with fired-up opposition parties.
The longer he hangs on, the worse it will get for them. And in the meantime we don’t really have a functioning government.
Also
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786722400572244295
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786724830546375015
On the face of it (and it’s early) Khan could well have this sewn up. I wonder if it’s a function of the change in voting system, ie. people who’d have voted LD/Green 1st and Lab 2nd are now just voting for Lab having been horrified by the potential of Hall?
Although it's six months old I have only just read that ^^. It's ****ing hilarious and well worth a read!
I loved her claiming that she didn't know whether or not she had been pickpocketed despite her getting her wallet with 40 quid back. And being asked how she can be trusted with London when she can't be trusted with her own wallet!