I can see him digging his heels in and dragging out the election until the last moment.
I can see him doing the opposite. News this morning has a 'source' saying he'll call an election if the nutters try to force a leadership contest. I have no doubt he'll do that, and I have little doubt that the nutters will be able to resist themselves. The main problem for them is going to be finding a candidate willing to go up against him. No serious candidate for the leadership is going to want to go anywhere near the poison chalice of being a short term PM overseeing a massive election defeat. Well, almost no one. Grant Shapps will probably do it just to get the PM pension and boost his ego, but no one else.
I personally think the coronation of yet another unelected PM would be unacceptable, and I think probably a surprising number of Tory voters, members, and MPs would feel the same. I wouldn't be surprised if some right wing newspapers wouldn't be able to support it either. I just don't see it as a credible scenario. As above, I think Rishi would just call an election, and it's probably that threat that is preventing it going much further. If this talk does precipitate into mutiny, then I think it will just hasten the inevitable scuttling of HMS Tory. An election or implosion of the party can't come soon enough.
surprised she called Hesters comments rascist- unless she saw how weak no10 was on the issue and saw it as a chance to stir things up
But then... there's the second part of her plan (heard by the "right" people, but not others).... that is...
"What he said was racist, but it doesn't matter, being racist is nothing to make a fuss about."
[ horribly paraphrased, sorry... but she's been saying something like this on radio ]
...part of her continued game of validating the racists to those who want to hear that, while trying to sound reasonable to the rest of us (well, not really "us", more the Conservative members that you'd happily have tea and scones with rather than the racist fruitcakes).
"No serious candidate for the leadership is going to want to go anywhere near the poison chalice of being a short term PM overseeing a massive election defeat."
This is the Tory part we're talking about, I'm sure there's many potential candidates that have their campaign teams set up and ready to go at a moment's notice.
One candidate in particular comes to mind....
And to faustus's point, I agree, even sections of the right wing press would find the prospect of another unelected PM sitting it out till Autumn untenable. However, if that unelected PM were to throw a snap election, that would be something the RW press could easily get behind, new start and all that.
Poison chalice or not, if a replacement PM can improve the numbers from where the polling is now then they would stay party leader post the election defeat. If they could win enough constituencies to deny Labour an overall majority then it would be seen as some sort of minor victory, similar to how Corbyn performed against Theresa May.
Labour need to realise it's not a done deal yet. Labour party strategy tends to move at the pace of an oil tanker, the Tory party's at the pace of an assassin.
Apaprently all this jockeying for position has started because Lil Rishi let it slip that his personal preference is for a November but “He doesn’t think this whole situation is sustainable till November"
He reckonss they're going to try and topple him after the inevitably dire local elections in May, so we're looking at a June of July GE
Seriously... if even he himself knows that the gig is up, just call the bloody election.
No serious candidate for the leadership is going to want to go anywhere near the poison chalice of being a short term PM overseeing a massive election defeat
Luckily the Tories have literally no serious candidates left for leader. None. Nada. Just a collection of mediocre freaks who've oozed their way up by indulging in bigotry and performative cruelty.
Seriously… if even he himself knows that the gig is up, just call the bloody election.
But then he'd have to hand the helicopter back to whichever wealthy donor is funding it! I'm still going with "hang on as long as possible, rinse everything for all its worth".
Ok guys, we get it, Kemi Badenoch is racist and that's the line Labour supporters are going to push if she becomes leader.
How do we think that's going to work out eh?
Christ on a bike, you are literally gifting the Tories and the RW press an election strategy. If Labour go down this track then it will turn off a lot of black voters and actual racists will vote for her if only to spite the left,
You know that Labour don't actually look for policy ideas on internet forums for middle-aged blokes?
You come to some weird conclusions Inkster, Uncle Toms are not a new phenomena.
Personally I don't think that Tory members would have a serious problem backing Badenoch to be leader of they thought she could do the job they expect from a party leader.
Personally I don’t think that Tory members would have a serious problem backing Badenoch to be leader of they thought she could do the job they expect from a party leader.
They have never elected a person of colour as leader. They favoured the swivel eyed PORK MARKETS! woman over Rish!
If they think she’ll give them what they want… they’ll go with her.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68597115.amp
Fairly in depth summary of the current situation.
https://twitter.com/IamHappyToast/status/1769751341625225644
I guess there must be a reason for Obama to 'pop in', not sure what . Can we keep him though?
"You know that Labour don’t actually look for policy ideas on internet forums for middle-aged blokes?You know that Labour don’t actually look for policy ideas on internet forums for middle-aged blokes?"
Well let's hope not!
"You come to some weird conclusions Inkster"
Not conclusions ernie, predictions. My crystal ball tells me that Laboir are about to get caught with their pants down and won't end up with an overall majority come the Summer GE. We'll just have to wait and see won't we?
Needs to get his Indian trade deal over the line to please his father-in-law then he can call the election...
The idea that a change of leadership for the tories is what's going to save them is laughable..... Right?
Please tell me I'm right.
I can't vote in UK elections as I've been out of the country for too long, but can I join the tory party and vote on their leader?
You come to some weird conclusions Inkster
Not conclusions ernie, predictions.
This is definitely conclusion, not a prediction:
"Ok guys, we get it, Kemi Badenoch is racist and that’s the line."
No one is claiming that Labour should be pushing the line that Badenoch is a racist. The suggestion was made by someone that she has played down the importance of the Tory Party's most generous donor racism.
I don't know whether she has or not but I do know that plenty of senior Tories are very happy to exploit what they consider to be bigotry within the electorate, and their skin colour is irrelevant to this.
See Braverman/Sunak obsession with Rwanda as excellent examples of this.
another day another low point
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1769770749370200358
and another
There's increasingly a pattern that polling for LibDems and Reform might be linked in some way... the uninformed protest vote swinging when looking at national polling...? Not that there's anything shared policy wise. Hopefully the LibDems will take far more people with them in seats they might actually win... and the Reform vote is dispersed throughout other seats.
There’s increasingly a pattern that polling for LibDems and Reform might be linked in some way… the uninformed protest vote swinging when looking at national polling…? Not that there’s anything shared policy wise. Hopefully the LibDems will take far more people with them in seats they might actually win… and the Reform vote is dispersed throughout other seats.
That's what I hypothesized on a previous page.
It's not a sign that the Tories need to go further right, it's just a sign that the non-core part of the Tories vote isn't quite voting Labour.
You could set up a nationalist socialist party and if the media got behind it they'd probably swing to it..........
It's why Inkster is wrong. Labour won't lose predicted votes to the Tories. But those protest voters might hold their nose and vote Tory anyway meaning the Tory/Lab split looks more 'normal' on election day.
At this point there's really no point in Labour doing anything. The Tories are making all the mistakes and they have such a huge lead that anything they did would be as likely to alienate someone on the left or right.
I have just realised that every single opinion poll since mid-October has placed the Tories on less than 30%.
That's just crazy.
Tinas
Problem with that is that the labour vote is very soft thus easily diverted to other parties. Labour need something positive for folk to vote for to firm up their vote especially in areas where there is alternative leftish parties to vote for.
Q
Labour need something positive for folk to vote for
Agree and that is the risk Starmer is running by offering nothing. At least the Tories are continuing to offer hatred which seems to work for 25% of people
Problem with that is that the labour vote is very soft thus easily diverted to other parties. Labour need something positive for folk to vote for to firm up their vote especially in areas where there is alternative leftish parties to vote for.
I think that's true, to a point. It breaks IMO because of FPTP, and in this election (far) more than any before when it finally comes to it we'll see tactical voting for whoever it takes to get the tories out. That's how sick the general populace is of them, and while some of the floating may hold their nose and vote tory on the day, I think (again, opinion) that more will vote against for whoever.
There's a significant (IDK if really, or just very vocal) number on here - a generally politically astute crowd given it's a political thread that says that Starmer's offering the same but at least it's not the tories; and will vote as you say elsewhere for alternative leftish parties, but most - in England at least - will in general be choosing between Red and Yellow on the basis of who has the best chance of defeating the tory candidate.
Sure, many would love Starmer and Labour to offer more - I agree, last few weeks has seen more backpedalling - but it doesn't change the opinion that first we get this lot out and then we aim for improvement. IDK how exactly - but first stabilise the patient before discussing the long term care plan.
Ok guys, we get it, Kemi Badenoch is racist and that’s the line Labour supporters are going to push if she becomes leader.
You do know that it's not only white folk that can be racist don't you?
For me she is peak right-wing, bet she fits right in with the Christian Right coming out of the States - wouldn't trust her one iota to be either competent or incorruptible , would make Johnson look like a saint.
If her & her kind get into power either at this election or the next folk can kiss goodbye to the UK as a social democratic European state, it'll be full on asset stripping & manipulation by the <1% AKA "a rich country full of poor people".
I think he's edging Truss now for lowest Tory polling
The local Tory mp candidate & councillor just posted a glossy thank you letter for my support- we had our local election a few weeks ago and the Tories lost.
Seems a waste of money printing that leaflet , eveb if they're flush with racist donor cash
https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/1769845651708219571?t=x8iJ2dTOS7R1-Uf1C7zFew&s=19
Doing his man of the people thing again.
I have just realised that every single opinion poll since mid-October has placed the Tories on less than 30%.
That’s just crazy.
I know. 1 in 3 people would still vote for them. mental.
While everyone was talking about racist donors, possible leadership campaigns etc, Lil Rishi whipped his MP's (though he probably didn't need too) to break international law and throw out the Lords completely legitimate amendments to the Rwanda policy
Now that Rwanda is officially a wonderful safe place to live, because he said so, next week he'll 3 line whip them all to vote that black is actually white and for that to be enshrined into UK law
To be fair I am not sure what the helicopters at RAF Northolt would be doing if they weren't ferrying the UK prime minister around.
Presumably they would be flying other pointless missions to get their flying hours in? They can't remain parked up for ever.
Does anyone have any ideas?
next week he’ll 3 line whip them all to vote that black is actually white and for that to be enshrined into UK law
Frank Hester's not going to like that one bit.
I dunno, I think helicopter pilots doing structured training and getting their hours up (considering the current context of hostilities) a more productive use of their time and resources, than ferrying a lame duck around to make literally pointless speeches...?
Rather than purely being about the practicalities, it speaks volumes about the sense of entitlement of a little prince who thinks the RAF is there to be used as his personal taxi service. Much like his predessessor and her chartered private jets at enormous expence to the taxpayer.
The sole job of 32sqn is to ferry the PM and Royals around. They have one helicopter* - an AW109 based at Northolt. If they're not doing that, they ain't doing nuttin' else.
* There's a couple of S-76s called The King's Helicopter Flight, and 32sqn have a couple of business jets as well.
Still wasteful.
This one is more than roomy enough and only £162.
And it's Airwolf.
AYAY RC Helicopter, ESKY F150BL V3 Airwolf RC Helicopter Model with LED Lights (RTF Version) https://amzn.eu/d/45vMQvF
Labour need something positive for folk to vote for
Let's hope they are keeping their powder dry & actually waiting for an election campaign before saying what they will do.
Otherwise the way this govt are they'll either steal their ideas & call them their own or **** up their plans by cutting what taxes they might use to raise money to pay for their plans.
Ah, so it's the private limo squadron...at least Rishi can give them some useful tips on countering blue-on-blue strikes... (sorry/notsorry)
Problem with that is that the labour vote is very soft thus easily diverted to other parties. Labour need something positive for folk to vote for to firm up their vote especially in areas where there is alternative leftish parties to vote for.
True in Scotland maybe.
But I don't believe the middle/swing voters are really swinging left/right each election, they're not ideological, they're just voting for whoever they think will do best in the economy, or in their own self interests. Which is why SNP support is falling, nothing to do with independence, just people asking the question "what's best for me for the next 5 years".
(speaking in general statistical terms, not individuals).
I'm not hugely against that philosophy. Economics is complicated. It's easy to say things like "why do lifetime ISA limits penalize people living in/around London? Why not abolish them?". Which is fine on paper, but Hunt apparently looked into it and determined that housing didn't need another influx of cash, which is probably also very true. A 100% ideological politician would be a disaster (the last 14 years has taught us that). IMO I'll vote for people who share my ideals, but are also restrained enough to apply them secondary to dealing with reality.
Let’s hope they are keeping their powder dry & actually waiting for an election campaign before saying what they will do.
Otherwise the way this govt are they’ll either steal their ideas & call them their own or **** up their plans by cutting what taxes they might use to raise money to pay for their plans.
Valid point I think.
So a whole 24hrs with Sunak making a cockup - looks like his next one is due at 17:00 when he meets Graham Brady.