Forum menu
^^ Oh yep, there is a residual part of me that keeps telling myself it could still all go horribly wrong and not to tempt fate. I mean, what could Labour do that out trumps the absolute shit fest the Tories are but yeah, a lot of vested interests are circling Labour looking for a whiff of blood to turn into a gaping wound to rip them apart.
Mordaunt made no public comment about the claims but her supporters said she was not party to, or aware of, any such plot, and that she believed the stories were an attempt by her detractors on the right to damage any potential challenge she may make in future, after a Tory election defeat.
A couple of months ago Badanoch was also claiming she was unaware of any plot to unseat Rishi and replace him with herself. Then it was revealed that she was part of a WhatsApp group called the Dastardly Plotters or some other such juvenile bollocks who were planning to do exactly that
It’s like some pathetic, childish playground game to these *ing clowns. Who gets to be head boy/girl in Lord of the *ing Flies
I think Mordaunt has more appeal to the disaffected Tories than Badenoch has to even further right headbangers. That might be playing to their Maggie fantasies or a race issue, but I think she'd attract/retain more support than the alternatives.
If she has any sense, she'll bide her time before throwing her hat in the ring.
Mourdant seems to be the preferred candidate amongst Labour voters at least! (Going by a twice shared poll on this thread and a few comments).
I think Badenoch, with her grammar school bossyness will appeal to Tory's Maggie fantasies more than Mourdant. It wouldn't surprise me if Badenoch adopts a handbag as a prop, knowing that Penny won't be allowed to take the sword out on tour with her.
The other day, binners commented that Badenoch was 'clearly' as awful as Braverman, it's just that she hasn't shown it yet.
Are we assuming that Braverman and Badenoch are going to fight it out to see who can be the most right wing? Or will Badenoch cede the right wing of the party to Braverman and adopt a more centrist position for herself? After all, she has already prepared the ground by throwing the ERG under the bus with the bonfire of the regulations Bill.
I think we're going to have a June election. Sunak will go after the Local elections. He won't have to be pushed, he will walk as he hasn't got the guts to face the electorate in a GE.
Whoever wins the leadership, they will have no choice but to call a snap election. Labour should be preparing for this.
Or will Badenoch cede the right wing of the party to Braverman and adopt a more centrist position for herself?
There’s a reason the headbangers on the backbenches and the membership all absolutely love her. She’s a complete right wing loon of the highest order. She’s equally as unhinged as Cruella but still being a cabinet member she just can’t publicise it so much
After all, she has already prepared the ground by throwing the ERG under the bus with the bonfire of the regulations Bill.
The reason they didn’t go through with that was that even by Brexiteer standards it was complete and utter lunacy. A grown up will have sat her down and explained to her that to go through with it would have tipped the economy into a tailspin and caused financial chaos the likes of which the country has never seen. She would also have had it pointed out that this descent into anarchy would also mark the end of her career
inkster
Free Member
I think we’re going to have a June election. Sunak will go after the Local elections. He won’t have to be pushed, he will walk as he hasn’t got the guts to face the electorate in a GE.
Whoever wins the leadership, they will have no choice but to call a snap election. Labour should be preparing for this.
**************************
(No idea what's going on with my quotes these days, can't sort it!)
Yeah, looking more likely now isn't it? Bad by election results and Sunak will likely say * it as he comes under huge pressure from all the Hunger Games factions in his party.
Labour are definitely ramping things up in my area. Got a campaign YT vid come on yesterday from our local prospective MP. Never seen that before but then I've only been active on YT the last few years really!
Dammit, got a holiday booked for June. I want to see it all unfold on election night with a glass in my hand.
martinhutch
Full Member
Dammit, got a holiday booked for June. I want to see it all unfold on election night with a glass in my hand.
I'll be up to watch the by elections too. Hoping for a complete meltdown in Tory support. Only downside is I think Reform will do well which I'm none to happy about.
surprised she called Hesters comments rascist- unless she saw how weak no10 was on the issue and saw it as a chance to stir things up.
Well she certainly took her time in breaking with the official line from number ten. The continued ‘it was rude but not racist’ line was already looking untenable by the time she broke ranks
Only downside is I think Reform will do well which I’m none to happy about.
They'd need a lot more support to be even close to taking a seat.
They’d need a lot more support to be even close to taking a seat.
Sorry, I meant the locals. Lack of sleep talking.
I reckon they will do fairly well at the locals.
Bizarrely I think we actually need Reform to get an MP or two (no more though!) as this will move the Tories further to the right whilst in Opposition to Labour and they chase those votes. This will make them less likely to regain control in 2029, maybe only slightly but every small thing will help.
I reckon they will do fairly well at the locals.
Might be one reason why Sunak doesn't want a GE turnout on the same day as the locals.
It should probably be remembered that even at the height of their popularity as far as I am aware UKIP only ever won control of one local authority - Thanet.
And within months they had lost control due to bickering and defections.
Are Reform UK more popular today?
reluctantjumper
Full Member
Bizarrely I think we actually need Reform to get an MP or two (no more though!) as this will move the Tories further to the right whilst in Opposition to Labour and they chase those votes. This will make them less likely to regain control in 2029, maybe only slightly but every small thing will help.
To be honest, my worry is the '29 election as much as the impending one. I can genuinely imagine a dystopian near future wish some Reform/ Tory coalition from hell.
We underestimated UKIP for years and look at the mess they caused.
There is a rough decade or more ahead and it will be fertile ground for the far right to exploit.
"Well she certainly took her time in breaking with the official line from number ten. The continued ‘it was rude but not racist’ line was already looking untenable by the time she broke ranks"
I can't believe you are so politically naive binners, It was entirely to her advantage to leave Sunak stewing for a while, whilst he sent out his minions to back his line. She used the situation as a power play rather than a virtue signal.
She may well be all the things that you an tj say she is, certainly too right wing for me (I want a Labour win with a usefull majority) but she won't come out frothing at the mouth trying to out do Braverman however much you want her to.
My prediction is that She will lead the Tories into a snap election in the Summer and if Labour (and you binners) don't have a strategy to deal with her that doesnt involve just throwing insults, Labour will see their lead shrink and might not get the workable majority that they are looking at right now.
^^Badenoch? The only Tory leadership candidate less popular with voters is Braverman.
Voters’ favourites for Tory leader
Pollsters Savanta crunched the numbers to work out an aggregate of those favoured by the public for the top Tory job
1. Penny Mordaunt
2. James Cleverly
3. Rishi Sunak
4. Boris Johnson
5. Tom Tugendhat
6. Nigel Farage
7.Kemi Badenoch
8. Suella Braverman
How about a reality check on Labour's prospects.
Go take a look at the list of candidates by seat; there are an alarmingly high number of tory held which still don't a Labour PPC - mine being one of them.
No candidate yet means that effective campaigning is...difficult; name recognition, building a profile, letting voters know the platform a Labour candidate is standing on are fundamentally important parts of successful campaigning.
I fully understand and accept that the focus has been on electing candidates to battleground seats but the lack of progress in other seats concerns me; I continue to make noises about this within my CLP but they don't appear to have much influence with the party's regional office.
That poll gets repeated endlessly ernie. All it basically tells us is which leader of the Tory party is preferred by those who won't be voting Tory. Elections are decided in a few key constituencies by a small overall number of floating voters, something frank's point alludes to.
So who do you think is going to be the next leader of the Conservative Party then Ernie? Most on here seem to think it's going to be Mourdant, binners hopes it's going to be Braverman. Me and the bookies think it's going to be Badenoch.
That poll gets repeated endlessly ernie.
I am not sure about that but by even if it is repeated endlessly does that make it inaccurate? Savanta have a record of reasonably accurate polls.
And it is a poll of all voters, not just those who won't be voting Tory, so obviously appropriate.
Who I personally think will be the next Tory is not really relevant, it might well be Badenoch or Braverman but it doesn't mean that it will good electorally for the Tories.
Do you think that Tory Party members always pick the best person for the job?
There was a discussion on the Diane Abbott thread about wether something was a racist trope or not. I stayed out of it but some of the language and particularly the infantilization of Badenoch in some of the comments here could be construed by some (namely your political opponents) in a similar way.
It could be an own-goal in the making, as spectacular and ugly as the one at Stamford Bridge yesterday. Using the abuse one black female politician receives to attack another black female politician is not a good look.
Poopscoop
Full MemberTo be honest, my worry is the ’29 election as much as the impending one. I can genuinely imagine a dystopian near future wish some Reform/ Tory coalition from hell.
This, absolutely. This is an absolutely poisoned chalice Labour are fighting for, and I really doubt the current leadership's ability to do much with it. And if Labour end up viewed as failing, and unpopular, then we could end up with just about anything, and a complete reboot on "it's all Labour's fault" to boot. If we're really lucky it'll all end up because Starmer was Too Leftwing tm.
Whoever wins the leadership, they will have no choice but to call a snap election. Labour should be preparing for this.
Why ?
Thete is zero need for any new leader to do so. Nor any chance they will unless they get a big poll bounce
Badenoch?
Have some of you forgotten some of the vile things she has said?
Anti lbgt+ and pro coversion therapy
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-56362329
"Why ?
Thete is zero need for any new leader to do so. Nor any chance they will unless they get a big poll bounce"
Braverman could hang on because she has tied herself so resolutely to the long list of failing policies. She could also form a cabinet from the dregs of the right wing of the Party.
Badenoch doesn't have the factional support that Braverman can call upon so would find it difficult to form a cabinet. By calling a snap election she could circumvent that problem. It would also give her the opportunity to ditch the failing policies and campaign with her own policy.
She has no powerful allies on the benches beside her, those she did have have long since been thrown under the bus and reversed back over, they all know they are for the chop if she wins the leadership. Badenoch is using her popularity with the membership to blackmail the party. She is the wild card candidate and will be able to present herself as such in a snap general election.
Use what ever metaphor you want but Penny Mourdant is a Trojan horse, a smokescreen, a red herring or a dead cat but it ain't going to be her. If she gets foisted upon the membership then they will erupt and fracture the party once and for all.
Hope that answers your question tj!
Badenoch?
Have some of you forgotten some of the vile things she has said?
I haven't forgotten how ****ing awful she has but we are talking about other people liking her not those on this thread. We are not the ones who will be deciding/judging where it matters.
Badenoch is using her popularity with the membership to blackmail the party. She is the wild card candidate
You do know she’s consistently been the clear favourite as next Tory leader with the bookies for over 12 months now?
That’d like saying Manchester City are the wild cards to win the Premier League
Anyway, the main point is that pretty much everyone is talking about Rishi like he’s already gone. That’s how much authority he now has. None whatsoever.
Anyway, the main point is that pretty much everyone is talking about Rishi like he’s already gone. That’s how much authority he now has. None whatsoever.
He seems quite petulant, I can see him digging his heels in and dragging out the election until the last moment.
I do hope they get gutted in the locals and it triggers a June election. I can't see a may election unless something else happens.
I can see him digging his heels in and dragging out the election until the last moment.
I can see him doing the opposite. News this morning has a 'source' saying he'll call an election if the nutters try to force a leadership contest. I have no doubt he'll do that, and I have little doubt that the nutters will be able to resist themselves. The main problem for them is going to be finding a candidate willing to go up against him. No serious candidate for the leadership is going to want to go anywhere near the poison chalice of being a short term PM overseeing a massive election defeat. Well, almost no one. Grant Shapps will probably do it just to get the PM pension and boost his ego, but no one else.
I personally think the coronation of yet another unelected PM would be unacceptable, and I think probably a surprising number of Tory voters, members, and MPs would feel the same. I wouldn't be surprised if some right wing newspapers wouldn't be able to support it either. I just don't see it as a credible scenario. As above, I think Rishi would just call an election, and it's probably that threat that is preventing it going much further. If this talk does precipitate into mutiny, then I think it will just hasten the inevitable scuttling of HMS Tory. An election or implosion of the party can't come soon enough.
surprised she called Hesters comments rascist- unless she saw how weak no10 was on the issue and saw it as a chance to stir things up
But then... there's the second part of her plan (heard by the "right" people, but not others).... that is...
"What he said was racist, but it doesn't matter, being racist is nothing to make a fuss about."
[ horribly paraphrased, sorry... but she's been saying something like this on radio ]
...part of her continued game of validating the racists to those who want to hear that, while trying to sound reasonable to the rest of us (well, not really "us", more the Conservative members that you'd happily have tea and scones with rather than the racist fruitcakes).
"No serious candidate for the leadership is going to want to go anywhere near the poison chalice of being a short term PM overseeing a massive election defeat."
This is the Tory part we're talking about, I'm sure there's many potential candidates that have their campaign teams set up and ready to go at a moment's notice.
One candidate in particular comes to mind....
And to faustus's point, I agree, even sections of the right wing press would find the prospect of another unelected PM sitting it out till Autumn untenable. However, if that unelected PM were to throw a snap election, that would be something the RW press could easily get behind, new start and all that.
Poison chalice or not, if a replacement PM can improve the numbers from where the polling is now then they would stay party leader post the election defeat. If they could win enough constituencies to deny Labour an overall majority then it would be seen as some sort of minor victory, similar to how Corbyn performed against Theresa May.
Labour need to realise it's not a done deal yet. Labour party strategy tends to move at the pace of an oil tanker, the Tory party's at the pace of an assassin.
Apaprently all this jockeying for position has started because Lil Rishi let it slip that his personal preference is for a November but “He doesn’t think this whole situation is sustainable till November"
He reckonss they're going to try and topple him after the inevitably dire local elections in May, so we're looking at a June of July GE
Seriously... if even he himself knows that the gig is up, just call the bloody election.
No serious candidate for the leadership is going to want to go anywhere near the poison chalice of being a short term PM overseeing a massive election defeat
Luckily the Tories have literally no serious candidates left for leader. None. Nada. Just a collection of mediocre freaks who've oozed their way up by indulging in bigotry and performative cruelty.
Seriously… if even he himself knows that the gig is up, just call the bloody election.
But then he'd have to hand the helicopter back to whichever wealthy donor is funding it! I'm still going with "hang on as long as possible, rinse everything for all its worth".
Ok guys, we get it, Kemi Badenoch is racist and that's the line Labour supporters are going to push if she becomes leader.
How do we think that's going to work out eh?
Christ on a bike, you are literally gifting the Tories and the RW press an election strategy. If Labour go down this track then it will turn off a lot of black voters and actual racists will vote for her if only to spite the left,
You know that Labour don't actually look for policy ideas on internet forums for middle-aged blokes?
You come to some weird conclusions Inkster, Uncle Toms are not a new phenomena.
Personally I don't think that Tory members would have a serious problem backing Badenoch to be leader of they thought she could do the job they expect from a party leader.
Personally I don’t think that Tory members would have a serious problem backing Badenoch to be leader of they thought she could do the job they expect from a party leader.
They have never elected a person of colour as leader. They favoured the swivel eyed PORK MARKETS! woman over Rish!
If they think she’ll give them what they want… they’ll go with her.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68597115.amp
Fairly in depth summary of the current situation.
https://twitter.com/IamHappyToast/status/1769751341625225644
I guess there must be a reason for Obama to 'pop in', not sure what . Can we keep him though?
"You know that Labour don’t actually look for policy ideas on internet forums for middle-aged blokes?You know that Labour don’t actually look for policy ideas on internet forums for middle-aged blokes?"
Well let's hope not!
"You come to some weird conclusions Inkster"
Not conclusions ernie, predictions. My crystal ball tells me that Laboir are about to get caught with their pants down and won't end up with an overall majority come the Summer GE. We'll just have to wait and see won't we?
Needs to get his Indian trade deal over the line to please his father-in-law then he can call the election...
The idea that a change of leadership for the tories is what's going to save them is laughable..... Right?
Please tell me I'm right.
I can't vote in UK elections as I've been out of the country for too long, but can I join the tory party and vote on their leader?
You come to some weird conclusions Inkster
Not conclusions ernie, predictions.
This is definitely conclusion, not a prediction:
"Ok guys, we get it, Kemi Badenoch is racist and that’s the line."
No one is claiming that Labour should be pushing the line that Badenoch is a racist. The suggestion was made by someone that she has played down the importance of the Tory Party's most generous donor racism.
I don't know whether she has or not but I do know that plenty of senior Tories are very happy to exploit what they consider to be bigotry within the electorate, and their skin colour is irrelevant to this.
See Braverman/Sunak obsession with Rwanda as excellent examples of this.
another day another low point
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1769770749370200358
and another
There's increasingly a pattern that polling for LibDems and Reform might be linked in some way... the uninformed protest vote swinging when looking at national polling...? Not that there's anything shared policy wise. Hopefully the LibDems will take far more people with them in seats they might actually win... and the Reform vote is dispersed throughout other seats.
There’s increasingly a pattern that polling for LibDems and Reform might be linked in some way… the uninformed protest vote swinging when looking at national polling…? Not that there’s anything shared policy wise. Hopefully the LibDems will take far more people with them in seats they might actually win… and the Reform vote is dispersed throughout other seats.
That's what I hypothesized on a previous page.
It's not a sign that the Tories need to go further right, it's just a sign that the non-core part of the Tories vote isn't quite voting Labour.
You could set up a nationalist socialist party and if the media got behind it they'd probably swing to it..........
It's why Inkster is wrong. Labour won't lose predicted votes to the Tories. But those protest voters might hold their nose and vote Tory anyway meaning the Tory/Lab split looks more 'normal' on election day.
At this point there's really no point in Labour doing anything. The Tories are making all the mistakes and they have such a huge lead that anything they did would be as likely to alienate someone on the left or right.
I have just realised that every single opinion poll since mid-October has placed the Tories on less than 30%.
That's just crazy.
Tinas
Problem with that is that the labour vote is very soft thus easily diverted to other parties. Labour need something positive for folk to vote for to firm up their vote especially in areas where there is alternative leftish parties to vote for.
Q
Labour need something positive for folk to vote for
Agree and that is the risk Starmer is running by offering nothing. At least the Tories are continuing to offer hatred which seems to work for 25% of people
Problem with that is that the labour vote is very soft thus easily diverted to other parties. Labour need something positive for folk to vote for to firm up their vote especially in areas where there is alternative leftish parties to vote for.
I think that's true, to a point. It breaks IMO because of FPTP, and in this election (far) more than any before when it finally comes to it we'll see tactical voting for whoever it takes to get the tories out. That's how sick the general populace is of them, and while some of the floating may hold their nose and vote tory on the day, I think (again, opinion) that more will vote against for whoever.
There's a significant (IDK if really, or just very vocal) number on here - a generally politically astute crowd given it's a political thread that says that Starmer's offering the same but at least it's not the tories; and will vote as you say elsewhere for alternative leftish parties, but most - in England at least - will in general be choosing between Red and Yellow on the basis of who has the best chance of defeating the tory candidate.
Sure, many would love Starmer and Labour to offer more - I agree, last few weeks has seen more backpedalling - but it doesn't change the opinion that first we get this lot out and then we aim for improvement. IDK how exactly - but first stabilise the patient before discussing the long term care plan.
Ok guys, we get it, Kemi Badenoch is racist and that’s the line Labour supporters are going to push if she becomes leader.
You do know that it's not only white folk that can be racist don't you?
For me she is peak right-wing, bet she fits right in with the Christian Right coming out of the States - wouldn't trust her one iota to be either competent or incorruptible , would make Johnson look like a saint.
If her & her kind get into power either at this election or the next folk can kiss goodbye to the UK as a social democratic European state, it'll be full on asset stripping & manipulation by the <1% AKA "a rich country full of poor people".
I think he's edging Truss now for lowest Tory polling
The local Tory mp candidate & councillor just posted a glossy thank you letter for my support- we had our local election a few weeks ago and the Tories lost.
Seems a waste of money printing that leaflet , eveb if they're flush with racist donor cash
https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/1769845651708219571?t=x8iJ2dTOS7R1-Uf1C7zFew&s=19
Doing his man of the people thing again.
I have just realised that every single opinion poll since mid-October has placed the Tories on less than 30%.
That’s just crazy.
I know. 1 in 3 people would still vote for them. mental.
While everyone was talking about racist donors, possible leadership campaigns etc, Lil Rishi whipped his MP's (though he probably didn't need too) to break international law and throw out the Lords completely legitimate amendments to the Rwanda policy
Now that Rwanda is officially a wonderful safe place to live, because he said so, next week he'll 3 line whip them all to vote that black is actually white and for that to be enshrined into UK law
To be fair I am not sure what the helicopters at RAF Northolt would be doing if they weren't ferrying the UK prime minister around.
Presumably they would be flying other pointless missions to get their flying hours in? They can't remain parked up for ever.
Does anyone have any ideas?
next week he’ll 3 line whip them all to vote that black is actually white and for that to be enshrined into UK law
Frank Hester's not going to like that one bit.
I dunno, I think helicopter pilots doing structured training and getting their hours up (considering the current context of hostilities) a more productive use of their time and resources, than ferrying a lame duck around to make literally pointless speeches...?
Rather than purely being about the practicalities, it speaks volumes about the sense of entitlement of a little prince who thinks the RAF is there to be used as his personal taxi service. Much like his predessessor and her chartered private jets at enormous expence to the taxpayer.
The sole job of 32sqn is to ferry the PM and Royals around. They have one helicopter* - an AW109 based at Northolt. If they're not doing that, they ain't doing nuttin' else.
* There's a couple of S-76s called The King's Helicopter Flight, and 32sqn have a couple of business jets as well.
Still wasteful.
This one is more than roomy enough and only £162.
And it's Airwolf.
AYAY RC Helicopter, ESKY F150BL V3 Airwolf RC Helicopter Model with LED Lights (RTF Version) https://amzn.eu/d/45vMQvF
Labour need something positive for folk to vote for
Let's hope they are keeping their powder dry & actually waiting for an election campaign before saying what they will do.
Otherwise the way this govt are they'll either steal their ideas & call them their own or **** up their plans by cutting what taxes they might use to raise money to pay for their plans.
Ah, so it's the private limo squadron...at least Rishi can give them some useful tips on countering blue-on-blue strikes... (sorry/notsorry)
Problem with that is that the labour vote is very soft thus easily diverted to other parties. Labour need something positive for folk to vote for to firm up their vote especially in areas where there is alternative leftish parties to vote for.
True in Scotland maybe.
But I don't believe the middle/swing voters are really swinging left/right each election, they're not ideological, they're just voting for whoever they think will do best in the economy, or in their own self interests. Which is why SNP support is falling, nothing to do with independence, just people asking the question "what's best for me for the next 5 years".
(speaking in general statistical terms, not individuals).
I'm not hugely against that philosophy. Economics is complicated. It's easy to say things like "why do lifetime ISA limits penalize people living in/around London? Why not abolish them?". Which is fine on paper, but Hunt apparently looked into it and determined that housing didn't need another influx of cash, which is probably also very true. A 100% ideological politician would be a disaster (the last 14 years has taught us that). IMO I'll vote for people who share my ideals, but are also restrained enough to apply them secondary to dealing with reality.
Let’s hope they are keeping their powder dry & actually waiting for an election campaign before saying what they will do.
Otherwise the way this govt are they’ll either steal their ideas & call them their own or **** up their plans by cutting what taxes they might use to raise money to pay for their plans.
Valid point I think.
So a whole 24hrs with Sunak making a cockup - looks like his next one is due at 17:00 when he meets Graham Brady.