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[Closed] predictions for the housing market over the next 2 years

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I think as long as you've got a credit history and have never missed a payment you'll be fine. I wouldn't worry about specific patterns of use. As long as you're reliable, don't have a mountain of debt in loans / credit cards and have a lot of savings (10%) they'll give you a mortgage.

Nationwide will do a 95% LTV to existing customers (I think existing Mortgage customers so not sure if thats of any use) but the best rates are only available when you're looking at 15% LTV upwards.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:02 pm
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Good point binners. Let's not forget all that unexpected inflation that creating billions of pounds out of thin air produced! Notice how the stock market bounces every time there's more printing announced?


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:05 pm
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biggest thing i'm concerned about is our foolish decisions to work in public sector type areas! wife works for probation on a fixed term contract (keeps getting renewed but never for more than a few months at a time) and is seconded into the prison service.... no job security at all. not sure the mortgage people will like that


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:06 pm
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Yesterday I saw an ad in the paper for a shared ownership scheme; the ones where you get a mortgage for part of the property rather than the whole thing. Some new development somewhere, can't remember. For a 1 bed flat, the price was £70k. For a 35% share. 15 years or so ago, you could have bought a similar property for not a lot more than that. Crazy.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:08 pm
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Marginal value increase but not much. The great price crash was never/is never going to happen.
You may as well get on with it now if you can as there's nothing much to gain from waiting.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:11 pm
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tis what i'm worried about binners, buying before a massive crash and return to (relatively) more sensible house prices. a low interest rate is tempting but it can only really go up. i'd like to think we're not stupid enough to base our repayments on current interest levels and max out what we could afford leaving no room for the rates to rise or our income to drop!

In the recent past, people have bought as stepping stones, first rung of the ladder etc. This really isn't something you can do right now.
Wage inflation used to mean that any risks you took with stretching yourself were short lived and the risk diminished with time and salary increases.
There's little or no wage inflation these days so you need to factor in a higher possible interest rate, 10% maybe and do your sums on that. Buy a home rather than a 'first rung on the ladder' investment and be prepared to stay there for a long time.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:13 pm
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I reckon that in the next 2-5 years prices will come down.
There were a load of buy-to-let landlords who decided to take interest-only mortgages, assuming that the house price rises would allow them to sell on for a profit at the end of a short 10-year mortgage, They won't be able to do that, so will have to sell for a loss.
It'll drag down prices elsewhere, too.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:13 pm
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thx1138

only person winning there is the developer. those shared owner ship things should be illigal.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:14 pm
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Sold my last place, a semi in Surrey, for £165k in 2000, buyer then sold it in 2008 for £685k !!!


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:16 pm
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Yesterday I saw an ad in the paper for a shared ownership scheme; the ones where you get a mortgage for part of the property rather than the whole thing. Some new development somewhere, can't remember. For a 1 bed flat, the price was £70k. For a 35% share. 15 years or so ago, you could have bought a similar property for not a lot more than that. Crazy.

There are both houses and flats for sale in Doncaster for £35k and under. Full thing, not shared ownership. Prices at the bottom end falling quite significantly.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:16 pm
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only person winning there is the developer. those shared owner ship things should be illigal.

I was wondering what would happen if the developers suddenly went bankrupt/did a moonlight flit with all their 'tenants' money. What saddens me, is that although the ads show sleek, well furnished places in the best light with loads of photoshopping, in reality they're often not all that well built (thrown up quick, lots of cheap materials and cost cutting). And may have very short guarantees. I've seen a fair few flats in such places, and they're no better than many local authority places, in some cases even worse! And very small too; for £70k you are going to get 35% of a tiny shoe box.

Sold my last place, a semi in Surrey, for £165k in 2000, buyer then sold it in 2008 for £685k !!!

What would it go for now though?


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:21 pm
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Sold my last place, a semi in Surrey, for £165k in 2000, buyer then sold it in 2008 for £685k !!!

Where was that? I'm in a fairly nice part of Surrey but you could get a reasonable 4 bed detached for that cash in 2008. I bought in 2007 and, according to Zoopla/Mouseprice, mine is worth a few % more than I paid - the house I sold in W. London is 20% more.

I'd buy now if I didn't have a place but just when things seem to be picking up there always seems to be something that comes along to cause a crash - Europe's bound provide more bad news sooner or later.

Edit -

What would it go for now though?

I'd say a little less as my house peaked in early 2008 I think, dropped back a bit now 5 - 10% maybe?


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:23 pm
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thx1138 your basically getting all the bad points of renting and none of the good points of buying bar knowing its harder to be kicked out and the option at later date to buy more of the equity.

it must be in the paperwork somewhere but i dont see how its much better than yer basic pyramid scheme.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:27 pm
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What would it go for now though?

Zoopla reckons 700kish.

Where was that?

Monkswell Lane, Chipstead.

I cheated a bit because he owned the land at the end of our garden which had some stables and a paddock.

He extended the house (digging up our old rock garden which had the cat buried in 🙁 ), put in a swimming pool and sold it with the land and stables, which looked to be in good shape as well.

Plus it is 1/2 mile from Fidelity, so maybe he sold to someone there.

I moved to Horsell and bought for £220k, and zoopla now reckons £393k, and that prices have gone up more here than where I was.

On rightmove with photos:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=17078786&sale=13284908&country=england

Got pictures of my bike on a stand in that kitchen...


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:31 pm
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Many people are in denial; a friend bought a place in a fashionable part of town, and then spent a fair few quid extending it (loft) and putting in a guest room/office. His wife now wants to move near her parents in Essex. In order to be able to afford to buy the kind of place they want, they need to sell at a certain price. Obviously you'd think that the extra work done would have added significant value, even taking into consideration the amount spent on the extension.

The place has now been on the market for over a year, with hardly any interest. And he refuses to drop the price, as he is determined to make money on it. He bought at the top of the market, and can't understand the concept of 'the value of your investment may go down as well as up'.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:33 pm
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The place has now been on the market for over a year, with hardly any interest.

On some of these property sites you can sort by recently added - it then shows the date of listing - which is somewhat illuminating.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:34 pm
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thx1138 your basically getting all the bad points of renting and none of the good points of buying bar knowing its harder to be kicked out and the option at later date to buy more of the equity.

it must be in the paperwork somewhere but i dont see how its much better than yer basic pyramid scheme.

Yeah, I couldn't help but be suspicious of it. And feel sorry for those naive/desperate enough to get sucked in.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:36 pm
 IHN
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[i]The place has now been on the market for over a year, with hardly any interest. And he refuses to drop the price, as he is determined to make money on it. [/i]

There seems to be something special about houses where people forget that it's not about what the [i]vendor[/i] thinks it's worth; it's about what the [i]buyer[/i] thinks it's worth


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:36 pm
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Moses:

They won't be able to do that, so will have to sell for a loss.

Or they just keep them and keep renting them out.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:37 pm
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And he refuses to drop the price, as he is determined to make money on it.

Or he doesn't want to move closer to the MIL 🙂


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:39 pm
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[i]There seems to be something special about houses where people forget that it's not about what the vendor thinks it's worth; it's about what the buyer thinks it's worth [/i]

to be fair there's been a few classified users with the same approach over the years,


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:40 pm
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IHN; his problem is that he wants a particular type of property, in an area with very low availability, which means a premium price. He doesn't want to 'downgrade', as he really believes he is entitled to a certain return on his investment.

A point I keep reminding him about, is that at least he has a home. That seems to go straight over his head though.

Or he doesn't want to move closer to the MIL

Possibly!


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:40 pm
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I bought at the right time. In the first quarter of 2009. Properties in east mids were hitting rock bottom and we picked up a 3 bed semi for 136000. Next doors, identical but they have a garage, was bought for 189000 just 12 months previously.

It's been up and down in value since we bought it but always above what we paid. I'm not particularly worried about making big bucks on it as it's our home but I'd be worrying if it started to drop below our original purchase price. Currently it's around the 160 mark.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:42 pm
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Oh sweet baby Jesus and the orphans! Please tell me we're not about to enter another period where its deemed appropriate, socially acceptable even, to consider house prices a legitimate topic of conversation?

[img] [/img]


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:47 pm
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in the end if it was worth buying sooner rather than later we'd rather look into it sooner rather than later!

In the long term view it's always better to buy sooner than later. Property prices are only going one way long term and that's up. Sure there will be small drops now and again but there'll be no long term decline. Land, they don't make it anymore.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:48 pm
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In areas of the North East you'll soon be able to buy an entire street of back-to-back Terraces for a bottle of Tesco own brand vodka, 20 Lambert and Butler and 2 packets of Space Raiders

Not to mention any number of the tiny new shoeboxes they seem to keep throwing up to satisfy all the demand - oh wait - there's no demand.

The eagle eyed among you may have seen my house in the classified over the weekend. I've lost 25k on it - it's only a couple of thousand more than smaller 3 bed roomed houses that have about 30% of the garage space. I've had about 5 viewings since september 2011.

I've found something else I like and fortunatelly I still have enough for a good deposit. For now mine looks like it's going on a buy to let - and I'll leave it empty.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:52 pm
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In the long term view it's always better to buy sooner than later. Property prices are only going one way long term and that's up

You're not familiar with the north of England then?


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:54 pm
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There seems to be something special about houses where people forget that it's not about what the vendor thinks it's worth; it's about what the buyer thinks it's worth

It's about both. The house is worth a certain amount to him and if he can't get that amount then he shouldn't sell. It depends on the reasons for selling, some people aren't that fussed about selling but if they get a price that covers the cost of what they want to get next then they would.

Zoopla reckons 700kish.

Interestingly Mousprice pretty much agrees but for my house Mouseprice reckons 11% more than Zoopla.

I moved to Horsell and bought for £220k, and zoopla now reckons £393k, and that prices have gone up more here than where I was.

That's really quite incredible, sound right to you?


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:54 pm
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Turnerguy - that's some investment. So excluding finance and maintenance that is a compound return on over 19% which seems a tad surprising.

House prices in SE at end of 2000 were on average 4.91x earnings. So lets assume this is applicable to your house. That would suggest that your earnings (theoretically) would be £33.6k. Now lest grow your earning at 6% every year to 2008 and you/new owner would be earning £60.2k. Apparently the house price to earnings ratio at end 2008 for SE was 5.15x making a theoretical value for the house of circa £310k (CAGR of 6.5%).

Your buyers was either very canny and smart or BSing you perhaps? Alternatively my maths could be BS!


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:57 pm
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[i]You're not familiar with the north of England then? [/i]

this is a good point.

House prices only rise when there is a thriving local(ish) economy or the house is in a location desrirable for 2nd home owners.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:58 pm
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You're not familiar with the north of England then?

They may have dropped but they'll go back up and eventually surpass the previous peak.

Over population and protection of the green belt is seeing to that.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:58 pm
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We do roads, sewers and foundations for the main house builders in the North West..........after a a few years of scraping this year looks to be a bumper one 🙂 quite a few large sites that have been shelved are now being released 🙂


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 5:59 pm
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I'd say there are large areas of the post-industrial north which are now in such terminal decline, that unless something pretty drastic happens economically (and lets be honest, can you see that happening any time soon?) that the idea of continuing house price rises is frankly ridiculous


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 6:01 pm
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soon? no. 20-30 years, yes.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 6:02 pm
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to consider house prices a legitimate topic of conversation?

only if you're willy waving.
ahem... I sold my flat in London last year, which was bought in 2007, just before everything kicked off, for 20% more than we paid for it.
conversely sold a second property this year in Durham for 20% more than it was bought for 12 years ago, missing out on 50% higher valuation in 2005/6.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 6:05 pm
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those shared owner ship things should be illigal.

friend of the OH is effectively trapped; the builders that own the other 50% don't like the market value. so unless she buys them out of their half she can't sell. 😯


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 6:10 pm
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Your buyers was either very canny and smart or BSing you perhaps? Alternatively my maths could be BS!

which bit are you talking about - the £165k to £685k - but as I said he extended quite a bit and turned it into a four bedroom place, added a swimming pool, made access to the land and paddock at the end of the garden, and sold it with all that extra land, etc.

I probably could have sold it for more as he was gagging for it, as it backed onto his land. And his buyer got he convenience of having his horses at the end of the garden, plus it has loads of bridleways round that area, walton heath is at the end of the road and from their over to Epsom, etc.

That link shows the price rise:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=17078786&sale=13284908&country=england

Just noticed the Zoopla estimate has come down to £379k for mine, and the graphs are sliding downwards...

Still, might do a bit better than that - house is in a better state than when we bought it plus we are in one the faster moving roads in the area - wife used to work in estate agency, and looking around at the prices things locally are going for versus the house facilities...

As long as the place we are going to also comes down and I don't sink into my equity portion then it doesn't really matter too much...

We should have bought a bigger place in the first place, as they have gone up faster, but the ones we saw weren't cute enough for the wife...


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 6:13 pm
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Did you get it too cheaply?


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 6:17 pm
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I think that first time buyers will get the opportunity to buy as house prices crash dramatically and move closer in line with wages, the government are planning to seize all second homes/buy-to-lets and sell them off at 3.5times the average local salary and the bank of england will increase interest rates for savers but keep them low for people paying off debt..

Hang on then... If you have a flexible mortgage with £xx,xxx of 'facility' you could take that money out and pay, say, 3% interest on that money but put it into an account paying 6% and make money.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 6:17 pm
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Sorry TG, it wasn't my maths, it was my reading! I missed your follow on post! 😳


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 6:20 pm
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I.ve been invited to leave my home on the 22nd of March.I hope your wrong about selling a home in the North-East Binners.Think you might be right though.Strange how even in the Thatcherised collapsed zones rents are still very high.Shouldn't the glorious 'Free Market' be sorting this problem out?


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 6:56 pm
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That's the trouble. It is.


 
Posted : 06/02/2013 7:16 pm
 Del
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Hang on then... If you have a flexible mortgage with £xx,xxx of 'facility' you could take that money out and pay, say, 3% interest on that money but put it into an account paying 6% and make money.

can you tell me where this 6% is please?


 
Posted : 07/02/2013 2:10 am
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Prediction.

House prices will be different in one direction or the other. People will still not sell as they owe too much or believe the hype about what houses were worth 5 years ago.
People will continue to blame governments rich people and poor people.
Life will go on.

Edit my balls are pink and hairy not Crystal prediction may be wrong.


 
Posted : 07/02/2013 2:23 am
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think he means if he locked into a life time low interest tracker at some point in the good ole days and interest rates start to climb - potential to make money thats for sure.

how does the old 1% below base work at the moment then - anyone on that?


 
Posted : 07/02/2013 9:16 am
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