Or because he knows his team knows how to hide it…
I’m sorry, but after today’s stage I’m finding it increasingly difficult to not be suspicious.
He's done it every race he's ridden this year, and plenty in the years prior. It's hard to buy into the idea that it's down to nutrition and technology when 4th place in the GC is over 15 minutes back. 2nd and 3rd are also 'once in a generation' wonders, smashing records themselves.
It was considered for a long time that because of the specialisation and alignment in training and technology, there never could be another Merckx. Yet Pogacar has already gone well beyond what Armstrong and Pantani were doing, and well into Merckx territory.
I've said it loads of times, I'm quite enjoying the spectacle. Good or bad, we're witnessing an historic moment, and it makes for some utterly bonkers racing. But you have to ask the question, how? How is it even possible? What's changed?
Been reading about the use of cobalt salts and carbon monoxide inducing near epo effects on erythropoesis.
But unsure how this would remain hidden in the whole blood tests.
The cobalt salts are apparently undetectable and the teams have said they are using carbon monoxide
Not sure on the cobalt salts, but there's been lots of media confusion about the carbon monoxide use.
What the teams have admitted to using is a carbon monoxide rebreather, which is a way of measuring haemoglobin mass (i.e. quantifying the effect of altitude training etc.). Using carbon monoxide as an ergogenic aid is different and would require quite frequent inhalation of a CO dose over a fairly extended period. I imagine CO therapy will be banned soon, but the CO rebreathers probably not.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30110719/
Just one article I found. I just wonder if it would change the blood values in a detectable way
when 4th place in the GC is over 15 minutes back. 2nd and 3rd are also ‘once in a generation’ wonders, smashing records themselves.
2nd place was in intensive care a few months back, 3rd place has little track record in GTs and is only in his 1st TdF, 4th place is a support rider. The other major challenger has withdrawn injured and there's a bunch of people I'll or recovering from injuries.
Last year we were using Pogacars performance to justify the Vingagard was juiced now it's vice versa. He was a clear favourite coming in and the result is beating that out. We're in an era where there are some really good one day racers about and riders who are competitive in one week races but there is a dearth of good GT riders.
Last year we were using Pogacars performance to justify the Vingagard was juiced now it’s vice versa.
Both of them are producing performances well beyond what we've seen in the modern era.
2nd place was in intensive care a few months back
Which is more reason to raise an eyebrow.
3rd place has little track record in GTs and is only in his 1st TdF
Yet is producing performances on climbs better than anybody in the history of the TdF before him, albeit slightly behind 1st and 2nd. This is the guy that was consistently getting dropped by domestiques a couple of weeks prior in the Dauphine.
The numbers don't lie. There are several former grand tour winners in the peloton. These 3 are way ahead because they're riding faster than anyone in the history of the sport. These margins of winning simply haven't happened in the modern era. You can argue that we suddenly have an influx of super talented individuals, or that they've uncovered new training techniques, but you cannot argue that it's normal or due to a lack of competition, because that's simply not true.
It’s just surprising to see the one day racer is also breaking records on mountain climbs. I’ve never seen any GT racer be that good in February, March classics. To win sprints or to do 60 mile solo breaks.
Irrespective of the injuries or the other competitors, it’s the numbers that are out of this world.
Personally I don’t mind. I think it’s fair to say if he is juicing he won’t be the only one.
Nils Politt the wonder climber is probably more suspicious.
knows that he’ll test clean because he is clean.
passing the tests and being clean are two very different things. Also the testing only tests for what it knows about and has developed a reliable test to for. That always the problem with doping control
Over the last 10 years the average time gap between 1st and 10th has been 16 minutes with a range between 7 and 26 minutes. 10th place is currently sitting at 22 minutes, it's hardly suggesting they are way ahead of everyone else compared to history.
The time separation isn't anywhere near as eye opening as the alleged W/kg values being put around.
As has been said, super human, on another planet, unreal.....
Cavs record won't last very long at this rate!
But up there the shock was the comparison to the other riders, the data suggests that they're not that different to usual in terms of difference to other riders.
If the time difference is comparable then an increase in power is being replicated proportionally across the peloton (we aren't seeing lots of riders missing the cut) so the implication now is that everyone is juicing to hold position?
I don't doubt significantly funded squads are identifying and using techniques that sail close to the edge and might in time be banned but that's not the same as doping.
These margins of winning simply haven’t happened in the modern era.
I mean, he won by what, 1:40 today? Froome won that stage in 2015 by similar (with similar doping accusations afterwards). There just doesn't seem to be a huge depth of GC contenders this year. Outside the top three, most of the top ten are domestiques. Mas, Betnal, Thomas have all been up there regularly in recent years, but are literally nowhere this year. Similar for Bardet....Simon Yates, Handley, Carapaz....most of those haven't even featured as also rans on GC.
It does look like 10th place on GC could be almost 30 mins down by the finish, which is a larger gap than the usual 20ish I suppose.
It’s just surprising to see the one day racer is also breaking records on mountain climbs. I’ve never seen any GT racer be that good in February, March classics. To win sprints or to do 60 mile solo breaks.
This argues against Pog doping with anything special, as there is surely no PED that can give you this performance if you're not already the greatest cyclist ever seen.
No one would argue that UAE are clean given the Leadership, and Pog is likely engaged in garden variety doping like everyone else, but it's also likely that Pog is just the GoaT. Micro-dosing EPO + blood doping + whatever doesn't give you a Pog.
The GOAT, better than Merckx, Big Mig, Armstrong? Call me sceptical…..
Turning Polit into an 80kg climbing god is a little bit too much. He was always an average breakaway rider who couldn’t really climb. Lots of raw power on flatter stages, but his transformation to me is quite startling. But he’s 6 feet 3 and at least 80kgs.
We’re all entitled to our opinion. I’m not going to be swayed…..too old and long in the tooth to believe in miracles.
I’ve never seen any GT racer be that good in February, March classics. To win sprints or to do 60 mile solo breaks.
Merckx and a few others around that time did but that was quite a long time ago and who knows what they may have been using or not. Maybe it was the steaks they ate for breakfast.
The GOAT, better than Merckx, Big Mig, Armstrong? Call me sceptical…..
Well there always has to be someone who is better than those before them. If everyone was worse than the riders from 20+ years ago that would be odd wouldnt it?
This argues against Pog doping with anything special, as there is surely no PED that can give you this performance if you’re not already the greatest cyclist ever seen.
No it doesn't. Pog probably is the greatest cyclist but that doesn't exclude doping. If you think merx and co weren't on something as well then that's just naive.
Pog dominates this year, vinagard last year, I would be very very surprised if they're not both (and the rest of the top ten) on some cocktail of stuff. I mean as far as I know micro dosing if done properly still can't be detected so meh. I don't really care, I like pog and I have no problem with him dominating - I was cheering him on.
If you think merx and co weren’t on something as well then that’s just naive.
I think it is pretty well documented that they were and Merckx was caught 3 times.
Personally the only thing that explains Pogis performance is genetics. In Michael Hutchinsons book he says that there are 20 (approx) genes that are linked to superior athletic ability and the highest (so far) detected in one human is 11. Pogi must have more.
The GOAT, better than Merckx, Big Mig, Armstrong? Call me sceptical…..
Not better than Merckx, Merckx was winning races week in week out and on the track as well. Pog and most top rides have a much lighter schedule, one of the reasons racing is faster - the amount or racing is less for the top riders and training more focused.
How many other teams spent time targetting yesterday's stage like UAE? Repeated ascents between the Giro & Tour, with the whole team aware of the plan. Add the quality of those riders supporting Pog, and you’ve got a huge disparity with smaller teams.
It's the first Tour for the rider in 3rd, who's not really a climbing specialist; it's the first Tour for the rider in 2nd who was on life support 3 months ago. That explains a lot, when in context.
But, it's cycle racing, so nothing would suprise as history supports.
If you think merx and co weren’t on something as well then that’s just naive.
Personally I do not believe there has ever been a clean TDF winner. sometimes they get caught, sometimes they are ahead of the testers and rules,
Personally the only thing that explains Pogis performance is genetics.
It's more likely the combination of genetics and modern, optimised training, nutrition, equipment etc. People seem to have this idea that all elite cyclists are roughly equal, so any big differences must come down to some sort of doping programme, but that's a naive over simplification which completely ignores genetic differences.
I always think back to a fascinating documentary about Colin Jackson, the astonishingly fast 110m hurdler. It looked at whether he was physiologically gifted and analysed all sorts of stuff. There was nothing extraordinary about him untll they analysed a core sample from his quad and found he had an incredibly rate fast twitch muscle fibre that simply meant his muscles could contract faster than other people's.
Obviously he also had great technique, motivation and the ability to execute under pressure, but right at the core of it all, he was also naturally gifted.
It doesn't of course mean that Pogacar isn't doping, of course he could be, but the idea that he must be, is maybe a little blinkered. Bear in mind too, that there may be lots of other Pogs out there, who've never been 'discovered' and are sat right now watching TV and doing the odd annoyingly fast park run that bears no relation to their general activity levels.
As an adjunct to all this, you have to wonder if the future of doping is DNA manipulation.
People seem to have this idea that all elite cyclists are roughly equal, so any big differences must come down to some sort of doping programme, but that’s a naive over simplification which completely ignores genetic differences.
The problem is that all professional cyclists are all already going to be the people at the tip of the genetic potential bell curve.
The current (and relatively sudden increase in) W/kg performances suggests that the bell curve has recently shifted somehow.
I think comparisons with 30 year old performances doesn't really tell us much. And in terms of performance improvements, I can see training and recovery protocols allowing more consistent performances across a Grand Tour or even at the end of a particularly grueling stage.
The one stand out for me is the raw W/kg number. There is a physiological limit that has suddenly been smashed, and not just by Pog. These are the numbers that are screaming out 'dodgy' to me.
Road cycling has this weird history fetish that taints these discussions. In pretty much every sport it's expected that performances improve over time with improved training, equipment, etc. If you look at track cycling or swimming it's not uncommon to get WRs at major meets, athletics is still seeing records broken and that had a crazy turbo charged era. But in cycling getting better is seen as "wrong".
Just one article I found. I just wonder if it would change the blood values in a detectable way
It would increase red cell density. Which is very detectable and with all the negative health consequences we saw on the 80s. So not that.
Genuinely I have to ask again: what drug or even what general type of drug would give someone 7w/kg for 20 mins? Which is crazy. But he's totally open about it - I read the Armstrong comments as "don't be so flagrant man, hide it", which is what a doper would do. Also, unlike Armstrong, folks seem to like him. So I think he's not a doper. Call me naive
""knows that he’ll test clean because he is clean."
passing the tests and being clean are two very different things."
I'm aware and in my post I went on to say he may well be taking something that is not yet illegal.
But there is also the possibility that he is clean and doing this ride on an amazingly powerful mix of talent, training, schedules and nutrition.
I hope he is clean, and he seems popular in the Peleton, which is normally a good indicator.
I read the Armstrong comments as “don’t be so flagrant man, hide it”, which is what a doper would do.
Yep, proven (and disgraced) doper wants other people to be proved as dopers. Armstrong is a nasty pos, who shouldn't be allowed the oxygen of publicity.
Also, unlike Armstrong, folks seem to like him. So I think he’s not a doper. Call me naive
I think one thing we've learned is that to be a successful doper you have to be likable. Or rather, you have to be 'marketable'.
Once sponsors have a sizeable amount invested in an athlete, and a sport is gaining popularity because of that athlete, then everyone suddenly has a huge incentive to make sure that athlete is 'clean' no matter what. This muddies the waters to an incredible extent.
There is only so much WADA can do, particularly if an entire sport has a financial stake in making sure an athlete is protected.
yep - if Pog and to a slightly lesser extent Jonas were exposed as dopers then it would be pretty existential for world cycling in its current form. You'd lose big sponsors overnight, TV coverage would drop off a cliff and whilst you'd still have grand tours they would be much smaller affairs which would start a vicious circle of diminishing sponsorship. To say there is a vested interest in keeping a lid on anything untoward is an understatement.
Lots of things can be true at the same time. For instance I believe that changes in nutrition/ fuelling, aero bikes and kit etc are behind the big increase race speeds in recent years. I think Pog is a generational talent, and also that the GC field isn't very strong this year. Also all the variables in stage racing can play out such that you can get some pretty striking stage results.
I also think UAE and the rest of them will be doing stuff that's right on the edge of the rules, maybe not technically doping now but might be soon. Also that doping will always be one step ahead of testing, and there'll always be someone willing to do it if they think there's a reasonable chance of getting away with it.
TBH I don't really know where that leaves me, but I do know I like following it, so *shrugs*.
For a bit of context I've been following it since the mid 80s.
He was toying with everyone up that last climb today. They're all going absolutely full gas and burning every reserve they have yet he's holding their wheel looking as relaxed as someone popping to the shop for a pint of milk then when he decides to go no one can live with him.
It was a fairly steady climb for these guys, they were going at speeds where drafting was still significant, so he sat in vingegaard's wheel and let him burn himself out so he could pounce at the line. He didn't need to make time on anybody so it was the best tactic.
Not that I am arguing that he is clean, just that yesterday was a pretty obvious tactic and in itself wouldn't raise any extra suspicion.
If you look at track cycling or swimming it’s not uncommon to get WRs at major meets, athletics is still seeing records broken and that had a crazy turbo charged era. But in cycling getting better is seen as “wrong”.
Making a big assumption about the prevalence of doping in those sports! I refer you back to the previous post with the peer reviewed paper where when asked anonymously 43% of competitors at the world athletics championship admitted to doping.
Just one article I found. I just wonder if it would change the blood values in a detectable way
most recent publication, not in elite athletes, shows 5% improvement in VO2 max. At an elite level the gains will be smaller but non-zero. Earlier studies were less convincing.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32118696/
I’d expect a threshold for COHb to follow. Which could make smoking a challenge. Chronic smokers have increased Hb levels for the same reason.
Been a bonkers one. Pogacar owned it. Looking forward to next year if Vingegaard comes back stronger.
drafting was still significant,
No drafting today. Smashed everyone. Every other rider looking absolutely burst at the finish line, Pog barely breaking a sweat.
Over the last 10 years the average time gap between 1st and 10th has been 16 minutes with a range between 7 and 26 minutes. 10th place is currently sitting at 22 minutes, it’s hardly suggesting they are way ahead of everyone else compared to history.
10th is now 29 minutes. 4th is 19 minutes. 4th!
That's immediately after winning the Giro with the biggest margin since 1965.
Not to mention winning single day races going solo from nearly 100km out.
25 years old and he's placed 1st three times, and 2nd twice.
He's in joint 8th place for most stage wins in the Tdf. He has 5 more stages than Peter Sagan.
Lance Armstrong would've pushed him down to 9th if he hadn't have been removed from the list, but he's only 5 stages behind, and Lance didn't start his total domination until he was 27 year old.
Tadej, of course, was the youngest winner of the GC since 1904 (and that win was only awarded because 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th were all disqualified for cheating).
