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In other news, Standard & Poor say an independent Scotland would have a AAA credit rating.
Still, what do they know?
it is still a poor analogy
Isn't that how houses normally sell, i.e. you decide to move - then once you've made the decision to move, you put your house up for sale and negotiate a price and terms with the vendor?
you agree to sell in general then you negotiate a price with an actual vendor - in this case they are expected to agree to buy and then sit down and discuss price.
Crazy!
Indeed it is but it is not AS fault as it was rUK who rtuled out negotiations hence the vite is a leap in the dark.
We are debating over which politicians and which financial institutions judgements we believe and trust. Its none of them isnt it- though sadly it seems to be the ones who say what i want to hear
It is politics anything could happen
bencooper - Member
In other news, Standard & Poor say an independent Scotland would have a AAA credit rating.
Still, what do they know?
Super stoked to know that an independent Scotland can immediately get up to its tits in debt!
In other news, Standard & Poor say an independent Scotland would have a AAA credit rating.Still, what do they know?
According to the Financial Times Standard & Poor say an independent Scotland would struggle have a AAA credit rating. And I assume the FT know what they're talking about.
[url=
warns Scotland would struggle to match UK credit rating[/url]
Quote :
[i]
"Scotland would struggle to match the UK’s AAA credit rating with Standard & Poor’s if it failed to negotiate a currency union with London or the eurozone, the credit rating agency warned on Thursday".[/i]
Still, the credit agencies gave Lehman Brothers AAA rating minutes before Lehman Brothers collapsed triggering the greatest banking crises since the 1930's.
So what do the credit agencies know ?
Standard & Poor’s publication today: “Key Considerations For Rating An Independent Scotland”, includes the following assessment:
Page 3: The Scottish economy is rich and relatively diversified, with 2014 per capita GDP estimated to be US$47,369 (based on the Scottish government's estimates, which include Scotland's geographic share of North Sea output, abbreviated as Scotland (Geographical) in the table above).Scottish wealth levels are comparable to that of the U.K. ('AAA'), Germany ('AAA'), Ireland ('BBB+'), and New Zealand ('AA-').
Even excluding North Sea output and calculating per capita GDP only by looking at onshore income, Scotland would qualify for our highest economic assessment. Higher GDP per-capita, in our view, gives a country a broader potential tax and funding base to draw from, which supports creditworthiness.
^^^^ assuming the economic model remains the same after independence. What happen if the finance sector move south???
"At the same time, Scotland's external position in terms of liquidity and investment could be subject to volatility should banks leave."On the other hand, if this were to happen, it could bring benefits in terms of reducing the size of the Scottish economy's external balance sheet, normalizing the size of its financial sector, and reducing contingent liabilities for the state.
NEWSNETSCOTLAND.COM It'd be nice for a link from a non biased website once in a while.
Junkyard: Indeed it is but it is not AS fault as it was UK who ruled out negotiations hence the vote is a leap in the dark.
Fixed your typos, including the "r" you mistakenly put before UK.
Maybe AS should have let Sturgeon know that he wanted to pre-negotiate, From "Scotland’s Future: from the Referendum to Independence and a Written Constitution";
[b]Following[/b] a vote for independence in 2014, agreements will be reached between the Scottish and UK Governments, in the spirit of the Agreement, setting the parameters for Scotland’s transition to independence.
My bold for emphasis 😉
We don't care about your triple a rating we want our evenings back.
We demand freedom from Scottish time tyranny.
All it needed was one dissenting Scot to stop us having light evenings in the last vote.
Next time the vote will damn well pass.
assuming the economic model remains the same after independence. What happen if the finance sector move south?
Probably good as it rebalances the economy away form a reliance on banking that is 5 x GDP currently so they are less exposed to risk
this was an "industry/finance" bod speaking on Radio 4
EDIT: I am confused as to why you think publishing a document from the UK government which states that they wont pre negotiate disproves my point that it is not AS fault but theirs. It supports my view that it is not his fault.
*We do not have the rUK yet but its fair to use this IMHO when stating the current govts position but we could debate it. I dont think it is that crucial tbh,
Indeed it is but it is not AS fault as it was rUK who rtuled out negotiations hence the vite is a leap in the dark.
Yes, you could say it's rUK's fault for not being prepared to accept a proposal which is not in their best interests, or alternately you could say that it is iS's fault for not offering a mutually agreeable proposal...
Eg I work oppposite a Bentley dealership, I could pop in and offer than £7.50 for one of their cars, after all they're for sale and everyone knows you can haggle a bit on list price....
Either way, AS has done iS a big disservice by not having a Plan B and not having even thought through whether Plan A might be mutually acceptable. What's even more sad is that it's not as if it isn't a well understood problem eg membership of the Euro requires fiscal union as a pre-requiste for currency union.
It'd be nice for a link from a non biased website once in a while.
Good luck finding one. Or do you mean a website biased in the direction you prefer?
Again they have refused to negotiate before hand
The analogy would be to agree to buy the Bentley and then negotiate afterwards. This is clearly what the electorate are being asked to do.
Its not a case of refusing an offer they have refused to discuss but asked you to decide anyway.
Do you think rUK has no Plan B and would you like to level that criticism at them? Both sides are as guilty of that charge.
Its public hardball [ both sides] with the resulting outcome via negotiations being unknown and nothing but our speculation.
so which way will you vote then even though you do not really know what you will get.
EDIT: I am confused as to why you think publishing a document from the UK government which states that they wont pre negotiate disproves my point that it is not AS fault but theirs. It supports my view that it is not his fault.
I'm more confused why you think Sturgeon would be writing a document for the UK government! Just to be 100% clear, "Scotland’s Future: from the Referendum to Independence and a Written Constitution" is a Scottish government document.
Do you think rUK has no Plan B and would you like to level that criticism at them? Both sides are as guilty of that charge.
I think if iS want independance, it's up to them to make the case for it, not the other way round. Bit like asking a reluctant partner to make the case for divorce when they don't want the marriage to end.
so which way will you vote then even though you do not really know what you will get.
Well I can't vote as I don't live in Scotland. In many ways I'd like Scotland to get independance and offer an alternative to the Eton cabal that currently run the UK.
However, to get independance they need a professional in charge and whilst AS is very good at glib PR, he's in a situation where just saying 'Yes we can' won't cut it. I suspect the 2014 vote is almost certainly lost for iS now. (NB looking at the odds currently offered, all the bookies agree).
Good luck finding one. Or do you mean a website biased in the direction you prefer?
They exist. But pro union news agencies and pro independence websites are not them. Try abroad.
I prefer no bias in either direction.
What I usually get, sets the bullcrap detector alarm off on a regular basis.
I think if iS want independance, it's up to them to make the case for it, not the other way round. Bit like asking a reluctant partner to make the case for divorce when they don't want the marriage to end.
Is this bad analogy day?What we have is the reluctant partner who wants to save the marriage going I wont negotiate till you decide whilst saying you are not having that if you do ...which is a perfectly reasonable position ?
Its very polarised this "debate".
whilst AS is very good at glib PR
Unlike the titans in UK defending it eh 😆
i get your point but really how can you just criticise one side in this
Both sides are equally culpable of much of the criticism but it is clear that the decision to NOT negotiate was taken by the UK [ which started this side bar] and still some blame AS. Its letting your politics decide reality tbh.
"Scotland’s Future: from the Referendum to Independence and a Written Constitution" is a Scottish government document
I was geting confused with this one* presented by the Scottish secretary which outlines the UK refusal to negotiate.Apologies for my confusion/error/mistake - my google skills let me down. Either way the fact they accepted the UK would not negotiate does not make them the authors of this policy - it was not their choice or fault.
Sorry 😳
*
No worries, it’s one of the things that grates on me a bit though, regardless of who initially said "no" to pre-negotiation both sides have agreed that it is the right thing to do before the signing of the Edinburgh agreement but the Yes campaign still try and use it as an example of Westminster bullying.
I think that AS is happy with it as much of what he says is unlikely to happen and he can just do aspirational pish to his hearts content whilst portraying rUK as bullies
I also think it is not great to say you wont negotiate then also say what you wont do which is clearly just as much an act of double speak. They will say stuff [ negotiate??] ONLY to undermine what AS does so their position is no more credible
Politicians being politicians Shocker.
Ben - Are you taking the piss? He's a convicted criminal!FFS!
So what? He's also a very good public speaker, and his conviction doesn't alter the facts of what he's saying.
So basically you're saying he is like Hitler. OKAY I GET IT
(PS I think Ben Cooper is a No campaign agent provocateur who is paid to discredit Yes by coming out with nonsense :p )
They will say stuff [ negotiate??] ONLY to undermine what AS does so their position is no more credible
Hardly a surprise though. After all iS is wanting to leave the union unilaterally, you might expect some feet dragging / push back?
i get your point but really how can you just criticise one side in this
Well if the SNP really want to get a yes vote, I'd expect them do have covered all their bases and be ready for anything. After all, being out manouvered by Cameron, who is not a great politician, is pretty piss poor.
Is this bad analogy day?
[b]Every[/b] day is bad analogy day on STW.
Stolen gratuitously from the FT
Brings a new meaning to the term Scottish Widdows!!!
So basically you're saying he is like Hitler. OKAY I GET IT
Anyone who's got a criminal conviction is like Hitler? Okay 🙄
Just for you, I found a charismatic speaker eloquently arguing the case for No:
bencooper - sorry but you really are quite one-eyed when it comes to this issue. Any argument in favour of independence is accepted without being subject to even the most basic scrutiny. Any evidence presented that doesn't fit your view is automatically part of a conspiracy against Scotland.
It's weird because I always thought of you as quite a rational guy. Maybe it's just that I happened to agree with you about other stuff. 🙂
Maybe I just like messing with you 😀
just for you mr bowie
An interesting analysis in the New Statesman - by a professor from Chicago so perhaps less biased* than a Scottish source:
NEWSTATESMAN.COM *potentially
The article starts from the presumption that currency union is the best outcome for rUK, I think this is a big leap based on the BoE statement and the spending commitments in the BoD
[url=
positive towards independent Scotland[/url]
That BBC never report anything positive?
Or maybe they just report when the big business has been saying, which just happens to be mainly negative.........
An interesting analysis in the New Statesman - by a professor from Chicago so perhaps less biased* than a Scottish source:*potentially
🙂
BA positive towards independent Scotland
Hardly, Willie Walsh just wants air passenger taxes scrapped and would back HItler if he thought it would help....
Willie Walsh just wants air passenger taxes scrapped
Exactly. The SNP has promised to at least half them and possibly scrap them.
So they are positive towards an independent Scotland.
Not sure what your saying there?
Interviewed on BBC Breakfast, group chief executive Willie Walsh was asked whether the airline was also making contingency plans for independence.
I found this quite bizarre. What where they expecting. Airlines to cancel flights to and from Scotland?
A Scottish government spokesman insisted Scotland would keep the pound after independence, as part of a formal currency union.He added: "An independent Scotland will continue in EU membership, and the only threat to that is Westminster's proposed in/out referendum which risks taking Scotland out of the EU against its will, with huge consequences for jobs, investment and prosperity."
😆 - not exactly been paying attention has he?
Exactly how many more people are going to travel to Scotland to fly. Even with lower taxes? It's not like getting there is free.
<shrugs> it's win-win for him though - if reducing the cost of flights wouldn't result in more people flying BA just keep the price the same and pocket the APD. I doubt he cares about the impact APD has on the economy, simply the effect it has on his bottom line.
- not exactly been paying attention has he?
Perhaps he's been listening to a wider number of opinions, rather than relying on one politician who has his own reasons for what he said. Barroso isn't exactly an independent and impartial voice.
SNP.ORG Hmm, so you don't think Scotland would leave the EU (and have to reapply to join) on independence? Could you provide a link to some senior EU official/politician confirming that?
How about the bit about keeping the pound as part of a currency union?
Melanie Phillips explaining independence to the Americans:
😀
@aracer - I think all these things will be up for negotiation. It's a unique situation - anyone who pretend they know how it'll go is deceiving themselves.
I think all these things will be up for negotiation. It's a unique situation - anyone who pretend they know how it'll go is deceiving themselves
you haven't read the BoD have you 😉
I think all these things will be up for negotiation.
Including things like becoming an independent country, yet managing to stay in the EU, which would require completely new rules?
Have you found a linky with somebody suggesting that will happen yet?
I think all these things will be up for negotiation
Ben - At the heart of the EU is the Treaty of Lisbon that has been, discussed, negotiated and argued over for several years before finally being ratified.
From the EU website -
Treaties are amended to make the EU more efficient and transparent, to prepare for new member countries and to introduce new areas of cooperation – such as the single currency.
Now a new member will be a major amendment to that and will be take time. So there will be a delay of at least a year or 2, probably longer for this amendment to be agreed.
I've decided that my favourite thing about the referendum campaign.
Is the ability of both Yes and No camps to claim the latest polls indicate growing support, regardless of what they might actually be saying.