[Closed] Osbourne says no to currency union.

An official currency...

...and another one that most people use in practice

I don't think that's extreme. I just think it shows how pointless a new Scottish currency would be. So:

- Scottish currency pointless
- using the euro less convenient when your major trade partner doesn't use it (although the trading bit was no problem for Ireland, so it's not rocket science
- currency union with the UK is pointless for the UK (it's a small market and they will just use pounds to trade anyway) and even if you did get it Scotland's say would be extremely limited

Solution: give up the posturing and just use pounds without currency union.

Except that very few people, including yS and BT, think that his would be a viable option. It's not even on the cards at the moment kona, from any side.

Scottish currency, like all options, has pluses and minus but it is not pointless. AS wants the former but not the latter. Hence he accepts the FC conclusion that a CU is a better option, the hiccup is that the other side crucially doesn't want it for blindingly obvious reasons. There's nothing about negotiation here. The technocrats and the political are simply informing the Scottish public that this is a non-starter. They are not hiding behind any theory. They are simply explaining the facts that are supported by both theory AND practice. And this is coming from multiple sources.

If people would prefer the debate to continue in ignorance of the key facts, then so be it. Seems pointless to me. What is being proposed by yS is a non-starter for rUK. YS might as well add that they want to annex the Isle of Man at the same time, there is the same mileage in both ideas (ie zero). A line has been drawn firmly and not in the sand this time. It's concrete.

Its making interesting reading this. It seems to have dissolved into politicians and nice middle class people squabbling over the details of any future momentary union. Or not.

But I get the feeling that those indulging in this are spectacularly missing the point. From what I see from quite a lot of mates I've got up in Glasgow, the decision is going to be taken on a lot more instinctive and visceral level. In fact, what I've heard from them is summed up pretty much exactly in this article in this mornings Guardian

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/23/glasgow-east-end-frontline-battle-scotland-independence ]Glasgow's East End – frontline in the battle for Scotland[/url]

Makes interesting reading

I don't see what the main political parties are doing as no negotiating. They're just stating their position. One only negotiates when one has to. Not because the other guy is whinging for it.

So that is how it works with Mrs DD 😉

The technocrats and the political are simply informing the Scottish public that this is a non-starter.

It really is unwise to take the position of any politician [ on any side of any debate] as a de facto fact that cannot and will not be altered. You would let anyone do this with a AS proclamation.

As DD notes it is the starting point for negotiations and , like much of the deal, it will likely be a dogs dinner of a fudge - see Nick clegg and coalition for example

Sorry, correction to my previous. Of course it's no negotiating (for now anyway) but from the arguments put forward so far, rUK leaders don't need to it's not that they'd be unwilling if they had to. I can't see how their hands would be forced in the event of a "yes" vote. But I'm open to reasoned argument to the opposite if anyone can show how they would.

Interesting that that's the view you form from the media coverage. AS and yes campaign have been very clear that they are willing and want to take on the liabilities as well as the assets.

Not from my point of view based on general TV and radio coverage, not really spent any time digging into their policies in detail because everything from AS currently seems to carry no data to back it up. If they want to be taken more seriously they need to address these areas as it's a view held by many I know.

Sorry, been away for a few thousand posts. Have we sorted it out yet? 🙂

That depends how you define very successful. Successful for those in the SE maybe, but the what's to say things else where wouldn't be better if Scotland had been independent. It's all if's, buts and whatabouts but it's a bit of a one sided view.

However what AS is proposing is even worse (for Scotland), keep the shared currency but drop out of any control of it. So rUK sets interest rates based around what's best for rUK and Scotland just puts up with it. At least now, the BoE is obliged to take note of North of the Border....

I can't see how their hands would be forced in the event of a "yes" vote. But I'm open to reasoned argument to the opposite if anyone can show how they would.

I dont trust either sides outpourings tbh

Not from my point of view based on general TV and radio coverage, not really spent any time digging into their policies in detail because everything from AS currently seems to carry no data to back it up. If they want to be taken more seriously they need to address these areas as it's a view held by many I know.

It's been pretty much the first line out of AS's mouth any time currency is mentioned "We want to take share of the assets and of course the liabilities" 😯

However what AS is proposing is even worse (for Scotland), keep the shared currency but drop out of any control of it. So rUK sets interest rates based around what's best for rUK and Scotland just puts up with it. At least now, the BoE is obliged to take note of North of the Border

Is it? I can't imagine the BoE take too much notice of what's going on up here, Westminster certainly don't seem to.

As for how the Greece and Euro vs Scotland and shared currency the main Achilles heal of the Euro was that Greece was able to raise billions in bonds with the market initially assessing the risk (of default) on the whole Euro zone.

If Scotland unilaterally adopts the pound but the BoE make it very clear that any debt (in sterling) raised by Scotland won't be underwritten by the BoE, the Scotland may well lose one of the big advantages of the current fiscal union, it can borrow with BoE underwriting it's debt. They may get the £ but find the bond rates are much higher than for rUK.....

I'll take that as a "no" then 🙂

Is it? I can't imagine the BoE take too much notice of what's going on up here, Westminster certainly don't seem to.

I agree, but they'll take even less *if* Scotland buggers off....

I'll take that as a "no" then

I do believe that AS has it all sussed out, so nothing to worry about. Just sit back and bask in the glory of his smug grin and everything will be OK....

I do believe that AS has it all sussed out, so nothing to worry about. Just sit back and bask in the glory of his smug grin and everything will be OK....

And again, playing the man. I don't think Salmond has it all sorted out, as as a politician of course he's not to be trusted, but this is about so much more than Salmond. I agree with others who have said this won't be decided on financial arguments - it'll be a more thoughtful, emotional decision for many, combined with the (perhaps naive, perhaps optimistic) idea that it'll all work out okay.

And how can it not? Everyone agrees that Scotland would do fine on it's own - even David Cameron has said so.

but this is about so much more than Salmond

Absolutely.

I can see why he gets played so often. He's a relentlessly noisy turd often playing to the crowd when a points scoring opportunity arises.

But, Salmond will be dead and buried for the vast majority of Scotland's future. It's the basic principle of the Scottish states self determination that count most. Even with the long list of compromises that being a modern state entails.

Salmond is a good lightning rod for the idiocy - every time a cartoon appears of him in a kilt, or someone comments that he wants a dictatorship of his own, or any of the other crazy ramblings, reasonable Scots roll their eyes and move a little further towards independence.

If a black politician was asked about watermelons in a TV interview the way Salmond was asked about haggis, there would be complaints and probably prosecutions - he's the one politician it seems okay for the mainstream media to insult.

he's the one politician it seems okay for the mainstream media to insult.

Your point notwithstanding, he's perfectly happy to throw them out himself when it suits.

Indeed nb pointless jibe today about Cameron fooling about on the playing fields of Eton. Very mature. The SNP are the first to avoid the point and either personalise or play the bully card. Actually, it's wise for him to remind us just how old he (AS) is, perhaps we can forgive him forgetting what he learned as an undergrad,

DD, your correct on the negotiating points. It is perfectly normal and correct to lay down the basic terms of reference before the nitty-gritty begins*. What AS may fail to realise is that his hand is pretty weak. The rUK had already guaranteed all existing liabilities. Of course it is better for all to remain together, the alternative is a lose, lose. But the rUK loses less. Scotland will have to raise debt under independence. That massively limits their options and we know that, as does he.

If yS was as confident as the bluster makes out, they would have moved straight forward to separate Scottish currency with possible plans for € entry if they felt that was desired at a later date. The weakness of their hand is shown by the lack of confidence in the go-it-alone option.

* the yS did exactly this with their unilateral declarations/wish list in the BOD. Problem with not asking the other side first, is that they just might not agree!!!!!

So, on the day the Westminster cabinet visits Aberdeen to say we need to stay in the union because of oil*, a poll shows that 70% of oil workers plan to vote Yes:

http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/842/70-of-north-sea-oil-workers-in-favour-of-independence/

*No idea why, some waffle about "broad shoulders", apparently the oil isn't going to run out any day like they've been telling us, but we need their help to get it because oil companies haven't yet worked out that they can sell it for money.

will be dead and buried for the vast majority of Scotland's future

But isn't that a whole chunk of the problem - The independence movement, and Salmonds SNP leadership in particular, have a long history of playing short term 'today' arguments in the struggle, the history of the future currency debate is a prime example of this, had the vote been held a few years ago, then you would have been in the Euro when the crash happened.

Same goes for the Oil - while the independence movement have played the oil economy as their lifesaver, and as proof that Scotland can 'stand alone', where will that be in 20, 40, 100 years time?

"Chancer"

then you would have been in the Euro when the crash happened

Yup, and most countries in the Euro have been okay - we'd have been a Belgium, not a Greece. Still not a big deal, and it's not like the UK's financial situation is so much better than the Euro zone.

Same goes for the Oil - while the independence movement have played the oil economy as their lifesaver, and as proof that Scotland can 'stand alone', where will that be in 20, 40, 100 years time?

We'll hopefully have a sensibly invested oil fund, as the Norwegians have. Even if we don't, even if it's all squandered the way Westminster have done, we'll still have a decent economy based on other things and the prospects for renewables could be a second energy boom.

Either way, we'd still be alright.

we'd have been a Belgium, not a Greece.

Given what happened to RBS & Lloyds, & the whole Celtic tiger, I think thats a very bold assertion!

we'd have been a Belgium, not a Greece.

You sure?

Assuming the two big banks stayed Scottish, the combined debt of RBS and HBoS were much greater then the Scottish GDP. You'd have been bailed out like Greece and put in special measures with all the benefits they enjoy like 28% unemployment etc...

The RBS/HBOS debacle is a bit of a moot point, given that they're as much based in London as they are in Scotland, which like every other point in this thread has been discussed to death.

and it's not like the UK's financial situation is so much better than the Euro zone.

+1

Edit - Sneaky edit to foil clubber 😉

bencooper - Member

So, on the day the Westminster cabinet visits Aberdeen to say we need to stay in the union because of oil*, a poll shows that 70% of oil workers plan to vote Yes:

http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/842/70-of-north-sea-oil-workers-in-favour-of-independence/

😆

Have you seen how that survey was conducted?

whatnobeer - Member
The RBS/HBOS debacle is a bit of a mute point, given that they're as much based in London as they are in Scotland, which like every other point in this thread has been done to death

Look like it still needs doing some more then despite this. It's the legal entity and registration that counts not where people think that they are based. I know AS has been deliberately wooly on this to hide the truth, but still........

But with TSB already changing its status in the quiet and Standard Life about to make its comments on Friday! perhaps there will be less to worry about anyway. Businesses are already making their intentions clear. Financial services, retailers etc......thank goodness for some balance from the oilmen if that poll is to be believed!

mute point 🙂

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/moot_point

Bloody hell, a facebook page poll.

FFS 😆

teamhurtmore - Member
Except that very few people, including yS and BT, think that his would be a viable option. It's not even on the cards at the moment kona, from any side.

I might have to eat my words if the interpretation of wee eck's comments on R4 today are correct. Some saying that his comments were a hint that plan c is indeed a form of sterlingisation. Actually, I reckon that's the bluff, especially as the Fiscal commission has already ruled this out. But he's said plenty of stupid things before.

So, on the day the Westminster cabinet visits Aberdeen to say we need to stay in the union because of oil*, a poll shows that 70% of oil workers plan to vote Yes:

http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/842/70-of-north-sea-oil-workers-in-favour-of-independence/

I've a good mate who works in the oil industry in Aberdeen and when discussing independence he's said not one of the people who he works with thinks it's a good idea. In fact the company he works for has looked at the possibly of moving south if there's a yes vote as most of their work comes from overseas.

I imagine a lot of companies will be looking at moving their base, it would be stupid not to. Not because an iScotland economy would be a basket case or business unfriendly, it could well be exactly what they need, but to not consider the possibility would be mental.

In fact the company he works for has looked at the possibly of moving south if there's a yes vote as most of their work comes from overseas.

I'm not sure how a Yes vote would effect immigration and Visa's on the whole, but cant imagine Scotland being any less easy to get into than the rUK, assuming that the EU situation is sorted out.

The bit I find most upsetting personally about the whole independence debate is how it shows up people I used to really like and respect. Too many times I've been watching HIGNFY or listening to Radio 4 or similar, and someone who I thought was a decent sensible person comes out with some rot about Scotland and the Scottish.

The latest was Steve Bell. He was fantastic during Thatcher, nice portrayals of Blair were wonderfully observed, and Cameron with a condom on his head is just perfect, but then he produces this:

[img] [/img]

The Guardian has always been very London-centric, but who on earth decided that telling a whole country to go **** themselves was a good editorial decision? And what in earth was Steve Bell thinking when he drew it?

It just saddens me.

Not Bell's finest moment, but Scots need to retain their sense of humour. (Try being Irish FFS...)

I'm happy to laugh at Scotland, when the joke is funny. But usually they're not - it's usually just a variation on deep fried Mars bars.

it's usually just a variation on deep fried Mars bars.

So boring, but surely not upsetting?

The Guardian has always been very London-centric

You mean The Guardian which for its first 140 years of existence was called "The Manchester Guardian"?

The Guardian which is famously nicknamed "The Grauniad" because of its previous reputation of having far more typos than any other national daily paper, [i]"due to the difficulties of simultaneously editing the newspaper in both London and Manchester with analogue printing machines linked by telephone lines"[/i] ?

That Guardian ? 🙂

Not upsetting in the comments itself, more in that someone I thought was clever and witty can't resist a cheap dig at Scots to get a laugh. It's like when I found out the bloke who was a very good customer, who gave me a silver coin for my daughter when she was born, was very homophobic.

I guess I just like to think the best of people.

Edit: okay, "always" since they all moved down South and dropped the Manchester from the name,

Is that were Grauniad comes from? Good to have you back Ernie in more ways than one.

Like most things that aren't that funny, just ignore it Ben? Can't see that much different between that one and many of the others that people enjoy tbh. School humour?

Basic message is not that far off though! 😉

That's interesting gribs, my FiL is very high up in Halliburton and he points out that until the oil runs out they will still be sucking it up. He cites their presence in Somalia and Iraq as evidence.

What I like about Steve Bell is that he's never been particularly picky about who he has a go at.

I think a lot of people who have listened to AS' verbal gymnastics of the last couple of weeks and heard his interview on Radio4 this morning will have found that cartoon funny. Is that right? I dunno...makes me a little uncomfortable too. For many outside the chattering of internet forums and Broadsheet comments sections, I'm afraid AS [i]is[/i] the face of Scotland.

bencooper - Member

Not upsetting in the comments itself, more in that someone I thought was clever and witty can't resist a cheap dig at Scots to get a laugh. It's like when I found out the bloke who was a very good customer, who gave me a silver coin for my daughter when she was born, was very homophobic.

Oh come on, all of his humour is based around cheap digs! The word could equally have been 'rule' or '****', and that's the entirety of the joke.