thought this was quite interesting too.
twitter map for the last week.
http://rt.com/uk/188404-scottish-referendum-live-updates/
If we win this it really does spell the end for traditional media as the only opinion formers in town.
Since when are the Bookies ever wrong Seosamh? They are quoting 1-5 for a No win and 4-1 for a Yes.
Its not looking likely for you.
it's only hearsay I'm repeating from other forums.
So even better than polls conducted by the SNP then 😉
oldnpastit - Member
What I find really interesting is that there are people on here who seem pretty sure it will be a yes vote. Meanwhile, the stock market and the sterling exchange rates are all looking quite healthy, as though either investors think it's going to be a no, or they think a yes will be a good outcome.
Or they think Westminster is bullshitting about a CU.
Since when are the Bookies ever wrong Seosamh?
2008 Olympics. Haven't placed a bet since. Still up on the bookies.
seosamh77 - Member
I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating 60%, when people are asking at the polling stations.
Wouldn't releasing exit poll results/information prior to the closing of the polls be illegal?
Wouldn't releasing exit poll results prior to the closing of the polls be illegal?
Sounds like the poll has been invalidated. We'll have to cancel the whole thing and start over next year.
No idea how the SNP conduct their polls tbh. I'll try and enquire tonight when I ask the question for myself about the polls. it's only hearsay I'm repeating from other forums
SNP are leaking poll information? They're not trying to influence the ballot are they?
Who says it's the result of an exit poll, could be the results from last week.ninfan - Member
seosamh77 - Member
I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating 60%, when people are asking at the polling stations.
Wouldn't releasing exit poll results/information prior to the closing of the polls be illegal?
Who says it's the result of an exit poll, could be last week.
Well, I was taking it from your own claim:
[i]"'Im hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating 60%, [u]when people are asking at the polling stations[/u]."[/i]
I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating 60%, when people are asking at the polling stations.
Wouldn't releasing exit poll results/information prior to the closing of the polls be illegal?Who says it's the result of an exit poll, could be the results from last week.
What? They stood outside polling stations last week to ask people?
Are youse just acting deliberately stupid or what?
Yes I am genuinely stupid. What do you mean?
If we win this it really does spell the end for traditional media as the only opinion formers in town.
@seos - the traditional media would not be allowed to circulate that poll "story", the fact you've heard it (via social media?) and posted it here just shows how difficult it is to square the law with the explosion of communication / broadcast mechanisms we have.
I think traditional media is very much on the wane as an opinion former however Murdoch's intervention and the impact of it shows its still overy (too) powerful. The referendum won't show this to be true or false, IMO it's already happening
It's not coming from media, it's just hearsay as I said.jambalaya - Member
@seos - the traditional media would not be allowed to circulate that "story", the fact you've heard it (via social media?) and posted it here just shows how difficult it is to square the law with the explosion of communication / broadcast mechanisms we have
Regards to Murdoch, I honestly think he's an irrelevance in this, he's been hanging on and hanging on trying to perpetuate his own myth.
can you post a link to the leaked SNP 60% thing?
Regards to Murdoch, I honestly think he's an irrelevance in this, he's been hanging on and hanging on trying to perpetuate his own myth.
Really ? The poll he comissioned and published set off the whole "yes might win" frenzy and IMO directly lead to the vow from UK parties for more Devo powers.
It's not coming from media, it's just hearsay as I said.
Understood, I was making the point that mainstream media knows to publish such a thing is illegal
Does anyone know what a 'polling place' is?
[img] 
[/img]
Is this something new to help with the SNP's core support, because they're afraid that calling it a 'Polling Station' might be a bit too close to 'Police Station' and scare them away?
haha - I noticed that too.
Does anyone know what a 'polling place' is?
Ever wondered why this vote is taking place at all
They've always used those signs in scotland.ninfan - Member
Does anyone know what a 'polling place' is?Is this something new to help with the SNP's core support, because they're afraid that calling it a 'Polling Station' might be a bit too close to 'Police Station' and scare them away?
It's a place where polling happens. 😆
Well if one person can influence the outcome of a poll, that'd put question marks on the validity of the entire polling system.jambalaya - Member
Regards to Murdoch, I honestly think he's an irrelevance in this, he's been hanging on and hanging on trying to perpetuate his own myth.Really ? The poll he comissioned and published set off the whole "yes might win" frenzy and IMO directly lead to the vow from UK parties for more Devo powers.
Particularly in this case, I'd probably agree with that, it's been a common theme of mine that the polls are well off! 😉
Democracy?imnotverygood - Member
Does anyone know what a 'polling place' is?Ever wondered why this vote is taking place at all
Can't came from a private forum.bigjim - Member
can you post a link to the leaked SNP 60% thing?
on the leaked result it would be a dangerous idea to leak a lead when every opinion poll says Yes is behind. You need to convince every yes and undecided to come out on your side not spread complacency. A lead for Yes early on would only spur the No's to make sure they get out and the undecided that are not convinced to head for the no to maintain the status quo. People don't bother for forgon conclusions they fight when they feel cornered.
And yes the death of the mainstream media may be approaching but the stuff that's lining up to replace it is really devoid of a lot of the principles of responsible journalism. Don't include the shitty red tops in that but the real people doing real work to make sure things are actually right rather than just knocking out 144 characters and hoping for a retweet.
I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating 60%, when people are asking at the polling stations.
Wouldn't releasing exit poll results/information prior to the closing of the polls be illegal?
aren't you confusing the release of exit poll information (people standing outside and asking) with the release of official counts (by party observers inside that are supposed to keep quiet)? the UK doesn't have laws restricting opinion polls around election time unlike some countries.
They've always used those signs in scotland.
Right...
[img] 
?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=GkZZ8bf5zL1ZiijUmxa7QfS1Ngz%2FpS8aHJZVPLsadxFuL4FsAMa8uknpH3yAFyvm[/img]
edit for mikewsmith - similar to
Ha Ha...nice one Ninfan! 😀
403 - Forbidden: Access is denied.
Picture in a special place ninfan?
konabunny - Memberaren't you confusing the release of exit poll information (people standing outside and asking) with the release of official counts ([u]by party observers inside that are supposed to keep quiet)[/u]? the UK doesn't have laws restricting opinion polls around election time unlike some countries.
I don't know, its Sesamh that made the claim that in this secret forum they're discussing it, but the claim that its based upon [i]"when people are asking at the polling stations"[/i] doesn't tally with party observers, because, as you rightly point out, they have to keep quiet.
Can't came from a private forum.
Can you copy and paste it?
odds just gone to 1-6 'no'
Freedom for Dorking (in the Surrey Hills ?)
[url= https://twitter.com/journo_alex/status/512553418687528961/photo/1 ]Dorking Advertiser Headline[/url]
What's the private forum called?
Yesramp?
a place where they poll you?Does anyone know what a 'polling place' is
The bookies just react to money placed, and base their odds on whatever will make them a profit. Giving what is clear a sense in England that the vote will be no, I'd say that's where most money on being placed on the no.Rockape63 - Member
odds just gone to 1-6 'no'
Seosamh77 - for reference:
seosamh77 - Member
I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating 60%, when people are asking at the polling stations.
[b]Scottish independence referendum Act 2013:
[/b]
8(1)No person may publish before the close of the poll —
[i](a)any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted in the referendum where that statement is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information given by voters after they have voted, or
(b)any forecast as to the result of the referendum which is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information so given.
(2)If a person acts in contravention of this paragraph the person commits an offence.
(3)A person who commits an offence under sub-paragraph (2) is liable on summary conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 12 months or to a fine not exceeding level 5 on the standard scale (or both).
(4)In this paragraph—
“forecast” includes estimate,
“publish” means make available to the public at large (or any section of the public), in whatever form and by whatever means,
“voters” includes proxies for voters,
[/i]
Hope you enjoy porridge 😉
Probably ought to mention it to Mark, as strictly speaking he's publishing it. Though I note you've also quoted it in your post, ninfan...
(I checked back and I only asked a question rather than republishing - I promise I'll visit though 8) )
youse are just being dim now.
Yeah Aracer - without knowing the source, its difficult to know whether its sensitive and unpublishable material, or, ahem, just more nationalist bull**it 😉
Edit:
we're being dim? You're the one who's broken the law sonny 😆
seosamh77 - Member
youse are just being dim now.
Or perhaps respecting the law that is put in place to make these things fair and honest, where do you think we are here Florida?
There are really good reasons you don't release that sort of data on polling day, unless you want the whole thing called off.
and yes spouting off on the internet is called releasing it, it's one of those things that people need to understand.
Someone on my wife's FB has just made a long post about how much they love the people of England, Wales and NI and they are voting yes because they want democratic change for everyone.
Ok, well why not campaign for that then? The Yessers didn't create anything, the SNP offered them this because they are a nationalist party. People in Yorkshire don't have a Yorkshire nationalist party and even if they did it's not going to be a popular concept.
As it happens, the issue of independence has galvanised everyone to hope for democratic change. It would have been great if this could have happened without the destruction of the union. But not enoug people really tried.
The best thing that could happen to the UK is a No vote imo.
youse are the ones insisting and i'm talking about exit polls, I'm not, I've not mntioned exit polls.
The actual quote went something along the lines of NS has had a relaxing few days because...
Last time I looked at stats for implied probabilities from the bookies they had No at about 75-80%, but of course seosamh77 is right, the bookies don't try and predict the result so much as try and predict the market, so I'd take those results with a pinch of salt.
Bing have been doing big data and sentiment analysis and have 48.7% Yes, 51.3% No as their final prediction.
WTF is this youse thing anyway?
seosamh77 - Member
I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating xx%, when people are asking at the polling stations.
Do you mean your quote or the one you are quoting?
