Forum menu
[img] 
:large[/img]
Yes, gotcha
How much of a swing is that in how many days/hours Bencooper?
That's 4% in a week, something like 22% in a month if you only look at YouGov polls - which have historically showed the lowest Yes results.
Panelbase should be interesting.
[quote=bencooper ]
How much of a swing is that in how many days/hours Bencooper?
That's 4% in a week, something like 22% in a month if you only look at YouGov polls - which have historically showed the lowest Yes results.
Something wrong there - surely? Is it normal for polls to swing so much in such a short space of time (unless YouGov have somehow changed their methodology)?
[quote=piemonster ]Thank **** i put that bet on already
Is anyone yet taking bets on what "Dirty Tricks" we can expect in the next couple of weeks? I was chatting to a No-supporting Manchester-living English client today and he was seriously proposing the idea that some sort of intervention would happen. Maybe DC will declare war and a state of National Emergency and then "postpone" the vote until things have quietened down?
[img] 
[/img]
Something wrong there - surely?
"Dirty Tricks"
If i put my tin foil hat, and consider the CEO of You Gov. Maybe this is a dirty trick to get the less motivated no voters to vote.
It'd have to be a big and ornate tin foil hat.
Maybe there's new methodology accounting for 'new voters'?
This is all wrong. Why isn't the overwhelming media bias working out better for the No campaign?
Something wrong there - surely? Is it normal for polls to swing so much in such a short space of time (unless YouGov have somehow changed their methodology)?
Depends if one side manages to run a total clusterf*** of a campaign. The poll also shows that trust in all the other party leaders is much, much lower than that for Salmond and Sturgeon. So basically the scare stories that Better Together we're relying on aren't working because no-one believes a word they say.
[img] 
[/img]
This is what I think (partly after a couple of beers and having had an excellent day): The undecideds have been doing that Scottish thing of keeping their cards close to their chest and listening quietly to the different arguments for as long as possible. They have now decided that Yes is the way forwards.
It's only going to get worse for No as Queeny and Cameron make a joint appearance at Kirk tomorrow. Before we then get flooded with unionist Westminster MPs next week.
This is all wrong. Why isn't the overwhelming media bias working out better for the No campaign?
Do you want a clue, Darling?
The undecideds have been doing that Scottish thing of keeping their cards close to their chest and listening quietly to the different arguments for as long as possible. They have now decided that Yes is the way forwards.
*Disappointing lack of tin hats involved
Don't worry, Nigel Farrage is coming to save the union 😀
Looks like Westminster is panicking. ^
I was just about the post that Guardian link. If the vote goes in favour of independence the shock could well derail the 'recovery' as business confidence and certainty about the future falls off the track.
From The Economist this week:
[url= http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21615593-scottish-referendum-nears-capital-takes-fright-case-jitters ]Capital is already taking flight from Scotland[/url]
If the prospect of a departure worries bankers and investors, of course, an actual one would cause enormous upheaval. Nationalists have set a date of March 2016 to separate from the United Kingdom. That is probably too ambitious. However long the negotiations take, they will be tortuous and ill-tempered. Almost everything, from currency to nuclear weapons, would be on the table, making for a fluid, uncertain picture. Expect the jitters to continue.
Of course, if those people who voted yes see money leaving the country as a direct result, they may well ask for their voting papers back...
This is all wrong. Why isn't the overwhelming media bias working out better for the No campaign?
Does that Sunday Mail headline look like an example of media bias helping the no campaign?
It is based on something said months ago, and is an example of gutter press s**t stirring.
I am a bit disappointed in you there piemonster. The Mail ffs. 🙁
I did feel a little wrong tbh
Best have a long shower and good scrub.
[img] 
:large[/img]
Does the Guardians "Radical New Deal" so long as we vote no now remind anyone of Lord Home
WikipediaThe campaign for a "no" vote was much helped by an assurance by former Prime Minister Lord Home of the Hirsel that a future Conservative Government would introduce legislation which would meet the objections. This pledge, made by Lord Home in a personal capacity, was not honoured by the Conservatives when they came to power a few months later.
Dirty Tricks seem to have turned up sharpish Scotroutes 🙂
I will simply refer the honourable gentleman to the bottom-left section of the image I previously posted 😆
Taking a moment aside folks, just for a wee seperate side issue - forget how you actually want the vote to go, how do you actually think the vote will go?.
I'm in favour of a yes vote, but think the no will unfortunately prevail. Whaddya think?.
Until very recently I would have agreed with you. Over the past few weeks though I have sensed a bit of a groundswell. Perhaps it is this that the polls are picking up on?
If Scotland do go independent England need a land border similar to the one between Mexico and the USA with shoot at sight powers!
Right up until last week I was predicting No 54% Yes 46%. Now I don't have a clue, too close to call I think. I wonder if it will be so tight we will have numerous challenges and recounts. Anyone know the rules on this?
Very similar again I would have thought Bt were favourites until 4 or 5 weeks ago.
A question I've been wondering recently. Should we end up independent, would a mortgage on a Scottish property held by a company based in England have its interest rate determined by rUK interest or by Scottish interest rates?
Mortgage rates are set by banks.
I always thought it would be tight with No perhaps edging it. Now I think Yes may win. As much as I disagree with their message they have run a far better campaign than Better Together. I have been very disappointed with Darling.
Athgray, me too!.
[img] 
[/img]
[quote=rene59 ]Right up until last week I was predicting No 54% Yes 46%. Now I don't have a clue, too close to call I think. I wonder if it will be so tight we will have numerous challenges and recounts. Anyone know the rules on this?
Fill yer boots!
Mortgage rates are set by banks
Yup, and my bank base my mortgage interest rate on the BoE rate.
If the BoE suddenly becomes a foreign institution then how might my mortgage situation change, given the above caveat of Scottish property, English mortgage company?
EDIT - I should add, I'm in no way trying to be inflammatory. I'm just starting to wonder how my personal finances may be affected given the increase in Yes support suggested by the YouGov poll.
Athgray I know" The Sunday Mail" isnt much of a paper but to liken it to "The Mail on Sunday"is a real insult 😆
Well, defo something funny going on
Panelbase result:
NO - 48%
YES - 44%
(including don't knows obvs) up till now Panelbase has normally shown higher Yes figures than the other polls by a fair margin
Yup, and my bank base my mortgage interest rate on the BoE rate.If the BoE suddenly becomes a foreign institution then how might my mortgage situation change, given the above caveat of Scottish property, English mortgage company?
If I were you I'd sell up now before the rush starts.
Buy a camper van instead.
Rick Draper - Member
If Scotland do go independent England need a land border similar to the one between Mexico and the USA with shoot at sight powers!
That's pretty mean.
Why not just let the English refugees cross the border to Scotland unshot?
They'd be welcome. With our access laws we have enough singletrack for everyone.
Panelbase poll has No on 52% and Yes on 48% with dk excluded according to BBC news.
Yeah, thats hardly moved at all then 😕
(both gained 2 from the undecideds)
very odd!
Nobeerinthefridge - MemberTaking a moment aside folks, just for a wee seperate side issue - forget how you actually want the vote to go, how do you actually think the vote will go?.
My prediction was always that it'd go 45% yes, 55% no- and that you'd instantly have Westminster declaring that an overwhelming victory and endorsement. My assumption was always that the Yes vote would fall off as the vote got closer tbh. I think for the first time I'll actually be gutted if we lose, really I thought even to get close would be a massive achievement and I still think that.
But I think we could have it. It'll be pant-shittingly close though.
I hope you're right Andrew!.
The Panelbase one is interesting - I guess what both polls show is that it's going to be close, we're really in the margins of error here probably.