[Closed] Osbourne says no to currency union.

some delusional people have suggested walking away from the liabilities.

JY. They are not heads of any state either. (Yet).

I dont think you are struggling to get my point even if you find my language use clumsy - you will always have a point on that front 😉

[quote=Junkyard ]I dont think anyone has ever thought they would do it not even on here .

I imagine some of the electorate think they will, which we all seem to be agreed is the whole point of saying such things.

Though of course I was only using it as an opportunity to call him delusional 😉

For a moment then i got paranoid and thought you meant me 😉

Doh! - and this is in a constituency held by SNP since 1987... 😳

http://www.moray.gov.uk/moray_news/news_93837.html

A mock independence referendum by senior pupils from secondary schools in Moray resulted in a sizeable majority voting No.

The overall result was: Yes 29%, No 71%.

Individual school results were:

Buckie High – Yes 52%, No 48%
Elgin Academy – Yes 22%, No 78%
Elgin High – Yes 34%, No 66%
Forres Academy – Yes 21%, No 79%
Keith Grammar – Yes 40%, No 60%
Lossiemouth High – Yes 25%, No 75%
Milne’s High – Yes 26%, No 74%
Speyside High – Yes 29%, No 71%

The total of 964 votes cast represented a turnout of 56.3%.

Oops, add my old mucker's at UBS to the 3Bs list

http://www.cityam.com/1404901721/ubs-no-vote-scottish-independence-will-still-shake-stocks

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10956525/UBS-predicts-savings-flight-from-Scotland-in-the-event-of-yes-vote.html

Do these clever people not read the script? 😉

Meanwhile, in Portugal.....

@ben - there is no such thing as a UK pension fund. The amount and number of years you "pay-in" via National Insurance determines how much pension you get upon retirement (subject to any changes the government care to make between now and then). As stated by others current tax payers (ie us) pay current pensions. When we retire we have to hope the future taxpayers are going to do the same for us and/or that the intervening governments doesn't change the rules. I am pretty sure there is no contractual obligation to pay a future state pension whether that be for us in the UK or for independent Scots.

TMH surely the Central bank of Scotland would guaranty the deposits of Scottish Banks (assuming they set some up), certainly a headache as that would be a foreign currency guaranty but that's possible yes ?

[quote=jambalaya ]TMH surely the Central bank of Scotland would guaranty the deposits of Scottish Banks (assuming they set some up)

Assuming they set up a central bank. That doesn't seem to be part of the plan
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/salmond-bank-of-england-will-be-iscotlands-central-bank.1400425586

@aracer - blimey, that can't be the plan surely ! A country governing itself with no financial system ? Where are they going to put the tax receipts and how is the government debt going to work ?

Better Together must have got to the younger voters 🙂 They are clearly not fooled by yes propaganda. Perhaps it is true that the older you are, the more right wing you become.

Athgrey, yes, you have to wonder if Alex's gerrymandering of the voting age might just blow up in his face?

@aracer - blimey, that can't be the plan surely !

Are you new here jambas!!!! 😀

It really does begger belief. The depressing thing is that BT should be able to say, look guys grow up, come back with a sensible plan that at least vaguely works and then let's have a sensible discussion. They started to do this by saying, look it's blindingly obvious that a CU doesn't work under these terms (frankly for either side) and that gets em rolled in the subterfuge of currencies and assets for a while but even the DO seems to have finally dropped that charade.

But this is where the Farrage analogy IS relevant. Both players are past masters at this tactic and know full well that you cannot take these BS arguments apart in a TV debate context. That is why they use them (and use them well). At the very least pointing out the bleeding obvious that you cant have both your oatcakes and eat them is so easy to dismiss as negativity and therefore becomes a vote loser. YS and UKIP have utilised this tactic will considerable success to date. As admirable as that is tactically, it is a disaster in terms of the implications in the real world.

Fortunately not enough people have swallowed either to make a real difference but the threat is there

Is The Emperor's New Clothes on the Highers curriculum for literature? It would make sense. The younger generation can be remarkably good judges of character.

ninfan I have been fairly impressed by many responses from some young first time voters when asked about the referendum on the radio. I think many are more interested in the social ties to people their age around the uk, than they are about pure politics. Remember Thatcher is not the boogieman to them that she is with my generation and older.

Blimey, now it's the OBR laying the boot in.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/401fa55a-0817-11e4-9afc-00144feab7de.html#axzz376IX09oL

At this rate I might start feeling sorry for the poor deceitful one. To rally so many against him must be very disheartening. Poor wee hen!

Yes, of course - pensioners in Scotland receive their pensions from the UK. And that will continue after independence.

Also - if iScotland had Salmond (an ex-banker) as new PM, no pension system in place and not existing pension fund, that is just inviting the creation of an innovative, flexible (privatized) national pensions arrangement. Be careful what you wish for - Scotland might not turn out to be the Scandinavian social democratic republic [i]you people[\i] are predicting!

A non paywall version of THMs oil forecast article

[url= http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/fresh-attack-on-yes-case-amid-new-oil-figures.24716054 ]herald[/url]

[url= http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/north-sea-oil-worth-billions-less-than-expected-1-3473371 ]And the Hoots take on it[/url]

There's no way that the UK will end up paying every existing Scottish pensioner's pension after independence - I'll bet a week's state pension payment on it.

The way the UK is heading on Pensions, that's not much of a bet.

It won't work out that way - there will be an intergovernmental agreement that shifts liability onto the Scottish state

The Scottish government has already committed to take responsibility for pensions, From Scotlands Future;

“for those people living in Scotland in receipt of the UK State Pension at the time of independence, the responsibility for the payment of that pension will transfer to the Scottish Government”

I like the section on energy policy in the Herald report. Basically Scotland is reliant on the UK to keep energy bills down. Surely another advantage of union If we keep touting wind as Scotlands energy production we surely have to pay the cost.

The close cooperation that nats keep talking about is called being in the UK.

[quote=bencooper ]There's an interesting discussion over on The Website Which Must Not Be Named, around the subject of pensions. It goes like this:

So basically they're all talking bollocks on that website then

[quote=irelanst ]The Scottish government has already committed to take responsibility for pensions, From Scotlands Future;
“for those people living in Scotland in receipt of the UK State Pension at the time of independence, the responsibility for the payment of that pension will transfer to the Scottish Government”

First Minister Alex Salmond dismissed [s]the new estimates[/s] anything which doesn't agree with his dream, no matter how well researched as "stuff and nonsense".

Welcoming the report, Yes Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins said: "[s]Where we can sensibly and practically retain mutually beneficial arrangements, such as maintaining single markets in electricity and gas, of course, this is the best be the way to proceed.[/s] We don't want to be independent"

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-independence-new-poll-shows-3841641

The average yes vote since May is 35%. The average no vote is 46%. An ipsos mori STV poll last week put the no vote at 54%. There has not been a poll this year that has the yes vote in the lead. It would appear that the separatists still have a lot of work to do.

They have always been behind but it is pretty close and hinges on the undecided / turn out.

First Minister Alex Salmond dismissed [s]the new estimates[/s] anything which doesn't agree with his dream, no matter how well researched as "stuff and nonsense"

Is this better or worse than the UK using figures even the source said had been abused to the point is misrepresentation?

Politicians lying over figures SHOCKA

Is this better or worse than the UK using figures even the source said had been abused to the point is misrepresentation?

Misrepresentation by the SNP perhaps? Here’s what the UK government actually said (my bold)

“Professor Robert Young has examined the potential costs of independence in modern industrial states. Whilst recognising that the costs of transition can be exaggerated or downplayed in the course of political debate, his independent analysis in relation to Quebec, shows that the costs of institutional restructuring in the event of independence could range from 0.4 per cent to 1 per cent of the new country’s GDP. 1 per cent of Scottish GDP in 2012-13 is equivalent to £1.5 billion or around £300 for every person in Scotland.”
“The Institute for Government (IfG) and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) estimate the average cost for a new policy department or a mid-sized merger to be approximately £15 million. In Scotland’s Future,3 the Scottish Government estimate that 300 institutions currently serve Scotland, of which 180 would need to be recreated or have powers transferred to a Scottish institution following independence. [b]If[/b] this cost were incurred for all 180 organisations, the total cost would be £2.7 billion. [b]Given these estimates, £1.5 billion is likely to be a favourable estimate of the total costs of setting up new institutions.[/b]”

So, they didn’t claim the setup costs would be 2.7billion, which is what Dunleavy was running to the press complaining about; perhaps he had a reason to get his name in the papers, maybe a book release to publicise?

Then, following a ‘briefing’ at Bute house with Salmond and Sturgeon he comes up with his own “guesstimate” of costs;

“Based on detailed work on the costs of Whitehall reorganizations, and our analysis of major tasks set out above, we have estimated the set-up costs for Scottish government as being in the range from £150 million to £200 million.”

So the Yessers jump up and down with glee – 2.7billion, bluff and bluster, it will only cost 200million. But hold on what’s this in the following section of his report;

“the Scottish government would need to pay £400 million to create new IT systems and processes to handle all welfare benefits itself – which is targeted to happen by 2018 (see timetable above); and
- they would need to pay £500 million to create IT systems capable of handling all their tax administration – the main bulk of which is due to happen by 2020.

These estimates are not based on any careful analysis, but given prevailing IT and change costs they do not seem implausible.”

So that’s 200m+400m+500m=1.1billion after being briefed on what to say by the SNP – not so far away from the Westminster estimate, so who misrepresented what?

the Scottish government would need to pay £400 million to create new IT systems and processes to handle all welfare benefits itself – which is targeted to happen by 2018 (see timetable above); and
- they would need to pay £500 million to create IT systems capable of handling all their tax administration – the main bulk of which is due to happen by 2020.

So how are they going to collect tax and handle benefits between 2020 and 2018. Are they expecting the UK to do it for them? I wonder how much we can charge them for this? It also does away with the bluff, bullying and bluster from Salmond regarding not paying a share of UK debt if he doesn't get a currency union. No debt means no tax or welfare systems.

"So how are they going to collect tax and handle benefits between 2020 and 2018. "

Probably the same way England intends to disburse development aid, administer benefits, loan money to students etd during the same period. Some people are forgetting that UK government facilities and employees located in Scotland provide services to the whole UK. It's not all one way traffic and the UK can't just "cut Scotland off" without cutting itself off from certain services.

In other words, in the event of independence both countries are going to have to act like grown ups to get what they want done.

Out of adversity.....? In addition to sorting out the above canny Scottish entrepreneurs could have lots of new opportunities. A new sweaty NS&I for example providing domestic premium bonds...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/savings/10962647/NSandI-to-bar-Scottish-savers-if-they-vote-for-independence.html

(In the meantime, adds NS&I to the list)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/725a5f86-085a-11e4-9afc-00144feab7de.html#axzz37EZ1obco

Interesting article on the SNP and it's well-oiled machine. One thing that AS "does" do well.

Some people are forgetting that UK government facilities and employees located in Scotland provide services to the whole UK. It's not all one way traffic and the UK can't just "cut Scotland off" without cutting itself off from certain services.

Are there any UK government departments with their offices and facilities located solely in Scotland?

I mean if we were talking abut Wales, then you could see a problem, with pretty much the entire UK DVLA infrastructure being in Swansea, it would create a huge problem - however if we were talking mainly satellite offices and call centres, then the main bulk of facilities still in the UK could gear up their existing operations to absorb the workload, its hardly like having to create an entirely new infrastructure from the ground up, like Scotland would have to.

In other words, in the event of independence both countries are going to have to act like grown ups to get what they want done.

THM NS & I are not saying a single thing about the vote or independence whay ar eyou suggesting they are siding with you or deserve to be on "the list"?

A spokesman said: “In the event of Scottish independence current rules would prevent anyone with only a Scottish bank account from buying NS&I products.”

Utter non story and utterly not saying anything about an independence vote.
Please dont insult me just counter this with some actual quotes that shows or supports your claim that they are "on the list" or retract [ yes like that bit will happen]

Awaits personal insults for pointing out a factual inaccuracy/misleading comment
🙄

Probably the same way England intends to disburse development aid, administer benefits, loan money to students etd during the same period.

The student loans company is 85% owned by the UK government with offices also in England and Wales. So no problems for us there then.
You won't be able to collect your own tax. Your wallet is in our pocket and if you don't play ball in negotiations then we won't let you have any pocket money. More seriously the UK has a much stronger hand in negotiations as a result of this.

Article in the i newspaper yesterday about the Edinburgh Fringe.
Apparently - & according to "several Scottish comedians who declined to give their names" the subject of The Vote is verboten in comedic circles because of the over the top reaction and threats of violence they fear they would face from yS supporters should they make their thoughts known, pointing to the hysterical reaction to JK Rowling's donation to the No campaign and the Glaswegian comic Susan Calman.

No experience of this of course, just an article in the paper.

[quote=piemonster > http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-independence-new-poll-shows-3841641
br />

Interesting. So at the previous poll yS needed to convince 65% of the undecideds (11/17), now they need to convince 69% (9/13). The bust up figures are also quite illuminating - as Prof Curtice (an academic based in Scotland, clearly not to be trusted) says "they (yes voters) are more likely to find that their friends disagree with them."

As far as voting intentions goes, plus ca change.

If that polling is indicating anything, it's an approaching worst case scenario of a narrow(ish) No vote.

I personally can live with either a yes or no vote (preferably yes admittedly), but I'd rather it was a convincing result either way. No matter what happens, there doesn't seem like the losing side will be happy with the result.

A replay of the Norwegian independence referendum it won't be.

over the top reaction and threats of violence they fear they would face from yS supporters should they make their thoughts known

Whereas the No supporters are always calm, reasonable and well-mannered?

https://twitter.com/BritNatAbuseBot

Anyway, have we done Question Time yet?

That's right Ben that cyberno gang are a menace to the intelligent debate that cybernats are trying to have 😉 Well done for pointing out one example that is obviously representative of the scots that will vote no. As for the twitter account if only all of those people saying Scotland should leave the union were Scottish then you might stand a chance of actually getting enough votes for independence. But then all yes supporters only ever really wanted was devo-max. Salmond wants to share practically every UK institution because it makes sense for both sides. Most Scots interpret this as we are better together.

....and they are correct.

[quote=fasternotfatter ]Salmond wants to share practically every UK institution because it makes sense for both sides. Most Scots interpret this as we are better together.

It really is quite funny in a way - I thought you were exaggerating when you first argued that line, but it does seem the case that actually they'd like to be independent whilst still being reliant upon rUK 🙄

That's the elephant in the room aracer. No one is arguing for independence not even yS. The CUnion is the most extreme example of this but is not the only one. Better together is what all sides are arguing.

Beyond that, it has become little more than a vanity project.

Indeed it is an interesting point that the more you scrutinise what he argues for it is clear he is not arguing for complete independence. IMHO it is devo max [ at best]

Article in the i newspaper yesterday about the Edinburgh Fringe.
Apparently - & according to "several Scottish comedians who declined to give their names" the subject of The Vote is verboten in comedic circles because of the over the top reaction and threats of violence they fear they would face from yS supporters should they make their thoughts known, pointing to the hysterical reaction to JK Rowling's donation to the No campaign and the Glaswegian comic Susan Calman

Lottery winners realising a statement about the abuse [ from the no obviously] they got for their donation for example

Surveys show that the % who have been abused/argued /fallen out are roughly equivalent from both sides so polemic point at best.

FWIW its always easy to attribute quotes and information to "well know people who wont give their names"...bit like the mail claimed a Close family member told them about clooney

In general i ignore stuff in papers where they say things like that as it is generally made up.