This idea of reunification, given the Brexit vote - is it a serious option? What's the current sentiment amongst the population? Could it ever happen?
I can't see it - views are too entrenched for Unionists.
is it a serious option?
I really don't think so. Maybe many generations down the line, but it won't happen any time soon. The Brexit vote has raised all kinds of divisions though. It will be only substantial land border between the UK and the EU - the notion of a hard border with customs checks will be an absolute nightmare given the giant leaps forward since the GFA. I'm not sure people (especially the uneducated portion of "Leave") understand the amount of cross-border trade and initiatives that happen now.
Make no mistake, Sinn Féin will try to make the most of it. It is their stated aim after all, and the fact that the DUP was "Leave" will be helping them stir the pot.
is it a serious option?
Yes, it is in the Good Friday Agreement
What's the current sentiment amongst the population?
Against
Could it ever happen?
Maybe, but interestingly the politically closer rest of the UK is the North's dominant trade party not the geographically closer south.
Would they have to put border crossings between NI and the mainland then? Otherwise it's a bit of a back door into the UK from the EU isn't it?
Sinn Féin
Utter sidetrack - can you get Irish keyboards with accented letters on? Or do you just know the numeric keypad codes for them?
A large part of the north's population are most definitely british. This is enshrined in the good friday agreement. If Brexit does go sideways for the north then there may be some push for some sort of fudge. Its a shame that at the moment the politicians can't even form a government as there is a danger the north will get a really bad deal.
Would the ROI even be interested in taking on the north in any form anyway??
Utter sidetrack - can you get Irish keyboards with accented letters on? Or do you just know the numeric keypad codes for them?
Using "Alt Gr" + letter will give you accented letters
Brexit may have a catalytic effect (as opposed to a catholic effect) but I suspect I won't see a united Ireland in my lifetime. Ultimately I suspect demographics will play more of a part in achieving unification than brexit.
Molls - [url= https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/23/northern-ireland-brexit-border-old-wounds-troubles ]A very indepth feature in the Guardian last week goes into all the implications[/url]
As someone who spent a lot of (sometimes pretty bloody scary!) time in 'Bandit Country' prior to the Good Friday agreement, with the border posts,checkpoints etc I can assure you that absolutely nobody wants to return to anything resembling that! What that article also points out is that the peace is still fragile, and there are still nutters on both sides who would love to exploit the situation to re-start hostilities.
Oh... and if the troubles taught us anything its that the Irish border is too big and porous to police. If they couldn't stop people smuggling arms, by using thousands of troops, helicopters, and everything else at the disposal of the British Army, what chance do you think they'd have now?
I suspect the Republic would definitely take the six counties back. People I know in the south who are not particularly republican regard the north as part of Ireland even if they don't support any proactive measures to change the status quo
ccéúíóá
Only acute accents it seems. No to bach (circumflex) for Welsh.
Utter sidetrack - can you get Irish keyboards with accented letters on? Or do you just know the numeric keypad codes for them?
On a mac or iphone press and hold the letter and it will come up with a context menu that offers all letter options. The fada being one.
On Windows all the accents exist but it involves remembering loads of alt code crap. I don't know if windows 10 makes it easier???
Would the ROI even be interested in taking on the north in any form anyway??
I am not sure they have a say as the GFA leaves the decision to the people of the North so I think they are contracturally bound. The few Irish I have spoken to say with their heart they would say yes, but are very concerned at cost because NI gets alot of subsidy from the rest of the UK.
I am not sure they have a say as the GFA leaves the decision to the people of the North so I think they are contracturally bound. The few Irish I have spoken to say with their heart they would say yes, but are very concerned at cost because NI gets alot of subsidy from the rest of the UK.
The polls i have seen are very cost dependent, if the north comes free of charge, yes, but the more the cost the less the willingness.
Yes, it is in the Good Friday Agreement
To clarify, yes, it's a serious option. I had assumed mol meant "option" as in "possibility in the near future".
Would the ROI even be interested in taking on the north in any form anyway??
I'm not sure they'd be massively keen - politics there is an utter mess at the moment but if a majority were to vote for re-unification, I don't think they could possibly say "no".
Would they have to put border crossings between NI and the mainland then? Otherwise it's a bit of a back door into the UK from the EU isn't it?
Nobody knows right now. RoI isn't part of schengen at the moment, so there may be something there. There's not a chance this will be sorted in two years - FFS, how long did it take to sort out what days what flags could be flown from government buildings!?
Utter sidetrack - can you get Irish keyboards with accented letters on? Or do you just know the numeric keypad codes for them?
There is only one accent in Irish - the fada over vowels:
a (ah) becomes á (aw)
e (eh) becomes é (ay to rhyme with hay)
i (i as in "igloo") becomes í (ee)
o (uh) becomes ó (oh as in more)
u (uh) becomes ú (oo is in food)
And as it's gaelic, shedloads of small variations depending on what consonants precede or follow.
"fada" literally means "long" so what it does is broaden the sound of the vowel. There's a combination of keys on a mac keyboard (alt-e, then press vowel) that places this accent over the vowel - probably more for the acute in French, which I learned as my own first name has the accent.
Anyway...back to politics.
Ultimately I suspect demographics will play more of a part in achieving unification than brexit.
There was a time when all the Catholics were busy still having big families, and the Protestants were using contraception more and having smaller families - it actually looked like the population percentages would flip. However, Catholic birthrate has slowed down, and when the province was on its arse, re-unification as a concept would trump all other considerations. However, it would be a massive assumption to think that all Catholics would now vote for re-unification. Certainly a few years ago, they wouldn't Although again, Brexit would have a big influence on voting patterns now I reckon.
Diageo (baileys & Guiness) make 18000 border crossings a year alone. On leaving the customs union each load will need an EUR1 which costs £24!
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/poll-just-38-want-a-united-ireland-29584149.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37309706
Note the dates, what happens going forward is anyones guess at this time. There is no demand today, but wait and see how the Conservatives handle Brexit and that may change.
Iirc one of the demographic factors is that the unionist population is older than the nationalist one, I agree the days of massive catholic families are long gone. I wouldn't expect all Catholics to be nationalist nor all non-Catholics unionists
nah, he just has a decent computer. 😉 option-I for to bach/circumflex btwUtter sidetrack - can you get Irish keyboards with accented letters on? Or do you just know the numeric keypad codes for them?
The republic isn't in schengen, outcome will be the status quo, ie the continuation of the uk common travel area. Any other thoughts are just there to sell papers, there will be no border.Would they have to put border crossings between NI and the mainland then? Otherwise it's a bit of a back door into the UK from the EU isn't it?
mikeyp - Member
Diageo (baileys & Guiness) make 18000 border crossings a year alone. On leaving the customs union each load will need an EUR1 which costs £24!
Good - hopefully keep that black rubbish out of the pubs and give our own micro breweries a chance!
The republic isn't in schengen, outcome will be the status quo, ie the continuation of the uk common travel area. Any other thoughts are just there to sell papers, there will be no border.
For customs purposes they need to sort something. Currently you can cross the border bring back anything you like. Post Brexit, as an example International Duty Free rules apply, VAT claims, duty etc etc.
If theres checks they won't be in newry or Derry etc. They'll be at the ferry ports and ni then works under different rules with more autonomy to align itself to the republic. Imo brexit means a defacto UI. When that becomes official is anyone's guess. Probly another 20 years. There's just no other way for it to happen i reckon.
Tbh it's all dependent on what brexit looks like. If the tories insist on a hard border it'll need to be based around the mainland as they can't expect the republic to isolate itself from Europe.
ÂÁÀÄÊÉÈËÎÍÌÏÔÓÒÖÛÚÙÜâáàäêéèëîíìïôóòöûúùü?????Ý?Ÿ?????ý?ÿ
[url= http://www.lexilogos.com/keyboard/welsh.htm ]They're all here, Molgrips[/url]
As a child of the 'troubles' i normally stay out of any politics thread/discussion but...
If the tories insist on a hard border
Then they're a bigger shower of CLINTS than previously thought. I can't imagine anyone with even half a head would want a hard border again. Maybe they should be sent over to police the border if they're so keen on having it.
We must do anything to keep the **** wits happy. If the express readers want a border due to one instance that might happen then they will have to do it in our best interests.
Trump has a wall, we will have one and make the Irish pay for it.
Common sense has long disappeared.
Ps. May is a ****.
If there was a realistic chance of winning a referendum Sinn Fein would be shouting a lot louder about getting one than they are. The same has been true for quite a few years now. It will change over time in much the same way the Scottish went from being SNP extremists to a reasonably close vote over around 20 years.
Winning a referendum could also remove the reason for Sinn Fein to exist.
how so?Winning a referendum could also remove the reason for Sinn Fein to exist.
If I was voting for a Dublin government I'd probably want to vote for a party that could potentially be a majority. Of course it depends if the Irish parties choose to stand in Northern Ireland.
The unionists would likely survive but just be less relevant / more disruptive.
There's also the other side of it, do the South really want the North?.
If the tories insist on a hard border
Why would they do that? It is pretty clear they want a soft border, whether the EU will agree is another matter.
sinn fein are making decent inroads in the republic, sitting on 13/14%, 3rd biggest party, fine gael and fianna fail both only get around 25% each.andy_B
It has to be a hard border between the UK and other country. We've been told that repeatedly by both Tories and Labour for the past 4-5 years.
mefty - Member
If the tories insist on a hard border
Why would they do that?
I don't think there will be a particularly hard border anywhere. Whether on the irish main land, between british and irish ports or british and european ports.
Hadn't really thought about the EU putting up a fence to keep "US" out.
That would really piss off the mail readers.
Can we crowd fund one?
I think the border will end up looking like Switzerland assuming there is no free trade deal. So just a means to clear goods and free passage for people.
158 seats for a population of 4.7M people! So could we expect to add 50 to that to allow for 1.8M in NI?
SF could easily be the biggest party. Scrap what I said earlier. I really thought they'd be an irrelevance.
Is it worth me getting some sort of official presence in NI so I can get an EU passport on reunification?
What's the cheapest property in the province?
Cheers Zippy O'Kona.
http://m.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/43600727?search_identifier=3b4d9dd199334b57ca3c65c9709e1941
Alright smarty pants down there!
Anyway Scotland will be independent before irish reunification.
zippykona - Member
How many people want to co-own this with me?
http://m.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/43600727?search_identifier=3b4d9dd199334b57ca3c65c9709e1941
you do know campbelltown is in scotland, right? 😆
Came across this,
http://www.daft.ie/clare/houses-for-sale/ennistymon/drumeevin-valley-ennistymon-clare-1221539/
get in before brexit and hide, then claim a passport and residency.
I bet there's a hundred of us that would chip in on that ^^^^
That flat in Cambelltown - the mortgate would be less than a Sky subscription!
The harder the Brexit the more likely reunification.
The Conservative Party, officially the Conservative and Unionist Party
They seem to be forgetting the unionist bit.
Having a united Ireland referendum is the first move to starting the troubles again (no matter what the outcome).
It'll be cheerio sunken boat story and GoT hooded fans. Hello bombs and bullets.
Let's just keep plodding along, living mainly in the past and with a futile devolved government...
gerti - Member
Having a united Ireland referendum is the first move to starting the troubles again (no matter what the outcome).
don't see that as the case at all. I think there needs to be a border poll and I think in the long term it'll do sinn fein good to accept defeat gracefully, then come the next one win that, and it's then legitimate. I'd doubt the unionists would accept an out right win first time. sinn feins job at the moment isn't to win a referendum, it's to normalise the concept of it, and legitimise it. (imo, why they are calling for one, knowing they will lose it.) Only need to be lucky once...
gerti - Member
Having a united Ireland referendum is the first move to starting the troubles again (no matter what the outcome).
Not necessarily. The vast majority in the Republic of Ireland are (philosophically at least) in favour of a united Ireland. In Northern Ireland it's probably close to a 50/50 split in terms of what the demography would point at. However when you throw in the questions of wealth and future prosperity the issue become muddier.
If people in the Republic thought voting for a united Ireland would make them noticeably poorer then a certain percentage would probably abstain from voting, I still feel however that the older generations would turn out overwhelming in favour of uniting Ireland. In the North it would be more complicated and my feeling would be that 33% would vote "United Ireland" regardless, 33% would vote "Union" regardless but the remainder would be swayed by where they thought they would be best off going. On the surface, maintaining the status quo would seem like the best option for Northern Irish people's pockets, however, a post Brexit, hard border, renewed troubles Northern Ireland is a possibility.
Conversely a newly united Ireland, as part of the EU with access to guaranteed billions in EU funding and no doubt a massive boom in global tourism to Ireland (tourism is already 5%gdp of Ireland) could be a more prosperous option for the undecided voter.
The Tories have made it absolutely clear they want an open border between the North and South. There is support all round for this including at the EU.
Molls yes its an option, as above its in the Good Friday Agreement and tequires a Referendum in Republic and Northern Ireland.
Personally I think we have opportunism from Sinn Fein is pushing their agenda in the wake of the Brexit vote but imho reunification is highly unlikely. Ever.
jambalaya - Member
The Tories have made it absolutely clear they want an open border between the North and South. There is support all round for this including at the EU.
Politicians, famously reliable and known for keeping their word. All it'll take is one Syrian / Afghan / Terrorist to use Ireland as a back door NI and then England and it'll be curtains.
Personally I think we have opportunism from Sinn Fein is pushing their agenda in the wake of the Brexit vote but imho reunification is highly unlikely. Ever.
It's opportunism in so far that the Brexit vote and the unionist/loyalist support for the leave campaign showed everyone how hopelessly backward and clueless the unionist/loyalist political movement was and how deeply out of touch they were with the needs, wants and future of the people they were supposed to be representing.
The tiny group of fundamentalist christian loyalist leaders would happily see working and middle class people suffer so long as they could maintain any kind of tenuous "Britishness" despite it being obvious that Britain doesn't give a toss about them.
Gerti +1. The Brexit vote and a united Ireland are two very different things despite SF vote on it.
There would be a swift return to the troubles if there was a United Ireland. The loyalist paramilitaries have plans in place for absolute mayhem if this was ever to be the case.
I think many generations down the line this could change but it won't be in any of our lifetimes
Loyalists would be reduced to driving trucks into crowds of civilians in no time. They simply never had anywhere near the amount of weaponry held by the pIRA. They were never that sophisticated in the first place and without the collision of the RUC, they'd have struggled to wage any kind of campaigns at all.
Not saying there wouldn't be trouble, but we wouldn't see anything like in the past. Although the RoI's army would struggle to deal with anything large scale.
Any change from the status quo does risk a real decent into bloodshed again. hard borders and the republicans kick off, reunification and the loyalists will.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-10866072
think about it.
As for the talk of no hard borders, politicians spout a lot of crap, and the Tories aren't running the show anymore despite what they claim.
Republican terrorists had their pick of targets when it came to occupying British forces in Ireland. Loyalist paramilitaries would have to go after targets in the republic of Ireland where (unlike republicans in the north) they have absolutely no standing, support or community presence. Killing catholic taxi drivers and dealing drugs to their communities is about the level of loyalist paramilitarism.
Any move to a united Ireland or a semi autonomous non British N.I would presumably be played out over years or decades which would hopefully defuse the worst of the outrage from the loyalists.
DD as the past has shown paramilitaries didn't need a massive arsenal to bring the country to the brink of civil war.
Think about where the key infrastructure, ports, airports and power stations are for example.
The potential for unrest is massive should there be a change. Also SF know a NI referendum wouldn't have their desired result. That's why they want an all Ireland vote.
jambalaya - Member
imho reunification is highly unlikely. Ever.
#jambafact! 😆 😉
have you ever seen you average loyalist, murder gangs picking up innocents off the street is about the height of their capability.BlindMelon - Member
There would be a swift return to the troubles if there was a United Ireland. The loyalist paramilitaries have plans in place for absolute mayhem if this was ever to be the case.
I'm not claiming that they are anything more than thugs but they have the potential to cause absolute mayhem here. Just as republicans have placing bombs at schools like they did this week. NI is in a very precarious place right now.
And yes I've seen them, I live here.
DD as the past has shown paramilitaries didn't need a massive arsenal to bring the country to the brink of civil war.
And I'm saying that loyalist paramilitaries were never sophisticated enough to mount the kind of campaign to cause the problems you're envisaging. You need a lot of explosives to bring down power stations, ports etc. Counter-terrorism skills in the U.K. (for the U.K. would have no other option than to support the transition) is at a whole different level than even a decade ago.
The pIRA had Libya and NORAID money. Where would the loyalists get their weaponry? Putin?
I'm not saying they wouldn't cause a little bit of mayhem, but it would be as unsophisticated as Islamic terrorism in Europe.
tbh the further we get away in time from the past the more likely a UI will happen, the dissidents refuse to understand, but normalisation is the best way forward. All the people active in the 70/80/90s are getting on now, I don't think there is the same and republican "dissidents" and your hardcore loyalists are well away in the fringes imo, least the active sort, yes there's potential for some violence, but anything like it was? can you really see that? Orange supremacy took it's confidence from the fact it was backed by the state(whether willingly or ignorantly I'll let people decide for themselves.), that isn't really the case any more either.
tbh the further we get away in time from the past the more likely a UI will happen, the dissidents refuse to understand, but normalisation is the best way forward.
And that i think is the key, current situation is as close to unification as you get with two states. You can live, work, and travel and barely know. If you role back from this the general population really don't win. You give a door for the idiots to come back into play.
The idiots are still there, and IMO aren't going anywhere for a while yet, but giving them any ammunition to restart the troubles is a ****ing stupid idea!
Living in the West of Scotland, i'd love to see a UI. Mibbe make some of the phukwits on both sides, yet living here, look at our own country and the issues there in, rather than the rose tinted views they have of a country across the sea that most of them have never set foot in.
zippykona - Member
> http://m.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/43600727?search_identifier=3b4d9dd199334b57ca3c65c9709e1941
Alright smarty pants down there!
Anyway Scotland will be independent before irish reunification.
just clocked the sneaky edit! 😆
There'll be no return to the troubles of the past, of course you will have the random acts of criminals but you could have that in any part of the uk. Molgrips if you're using Windows you can use charmap in accessories, I used to use it a lot before I learned the shortcuts for ° (alt + 0176 on the numeric keypad) and the likes.
Thing is, we know the tories are lying on borders, simply because they claim 2 contradictory things- that the border with an iScotland would have to be a sealed, hard border and that the border between NI and the Republic would definitely be soft. The only question is, which is the lie.
have you ever seen you average loyalist, murder gangs picking up innocents off the street is about the height of their capability.
Sorry, but only an idiot would think that.
Euro
have you ever seen you average loyalist, murder gangs picking up innocents off the street is about the height of their capability.
Sorry, but only an idiot would think that.
85% of people murdered by loyalist terror groups were civilians. 5% were other loyalists, and 5% were members of the security forces and approximately 5% were republicans. It's worth remembering that much of their activity was carried out with the tacit approval of security forces and/or direct collusion. Which you'd like to imagine would now be absent.
There's no doubt they could kill people, and cause unrest but any infrastructure they would target in Northern Ireland is in their own back yard; ports, power stations, air ports etc so really, beyond killing more innocent civilians what would they do?
Explain what strategy and tactics the loyalists would employ? Go on, I could do with a laugh...Euro - Member
have you ever seen you average loyalist, murder gangs picking up innocents off the street is about the height of their capability.
Sorry, but only an idiot would think that.
seosamh77Explain what strategy and tactics the loyalists would employ? Go on, I could do with a laugh...
It's just occurred to me that street protests, riots and civil unrest would probably be their most viable weapon in terms of causing unrest and holding the state to ransom ala the Fleg protests.
there'd be toys out the pram, no doubt. But it'd also be determined on how a transition happened, a long slow transition would render them impotent.
When Scotland does go independent, NI principle ferry/hgv links with England/rUK will be via a different country. It will be messy.
Explain what strategy and tactics the loyalists would employ? Go on, I could do with a laugh...
Glad you think it's funny
Barricade the roads - bring the country to a halt. No need to hurt anyone (except the emergency services). Side splitting aint it? 🙄
sounds a comprehensive plan...
I didn't think it needs explaining just how effective blocking the roads can be Joe. Maybe have a wee think eh?
It's a very short term plan(it's self harm also.), and like I say could easily be avoided by pulling the rug out from under them, very slowly. I'm not predicting an immediate declaration of a UI. Just saying that given brexit, it's likely over the long term, talking 20/30 years here.
btw I disgree with taking all unionists towards a UI unwillingly also, I think it should be republicans/nationalists jobs to convince a large section of them to vote with them anyhow. Marginalise the extreme elements over time.
Ultimately, doesn't really bother me that much anyway, long as there's peace, a UI would be nice and imo, correct, but not at all costs. I'd be against an overnight change.
So aye I do think, I don't think anyone is daft enough to create the circumstances for a return to the past. I think the EU-27 and British will be very sensitive to Irish needs. We'll no doubt get some daft headlines along the road though.
I hope all those who think there would be no return to the troubles are correct. But having lived here all my life and seen the worst of this place, I struggle to believe our future would be peaceful after a united Ireland referendum.
gerti - Member
I hope all those who think there would be no return to the troubles are correct. But having lived here all my life and seen the worst of this place, I struggle to believe our future would be peaceful after a united Ireland referendum.
A hard border is as certain to deliver renewed troubles as a united Ireland. Ironically it'll make little or no difference one way or the other to the loyalists of east Belfast or Ballymena, apart from what currency their dole comes in.
Nothing like a bit of stereotyping hey 'funster'?