No new petrol and d...
 

[Closed] No new petrol and diesel cars from 2040

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so how quickly did we go from the first ICE cars to widespread rollout of infrastructure to support them?

I know broadly speaking we're talking ~60-80 years from 'car as a curiosity' to 'car in most household', but the bulk of the change happened in a much smaller time frame.

I'll go back to one of my earlier points though, we don't have to jump from now -> perfect in one go, all we have to do is take steps in the right direction. All those typical <5 mile journeys for example, if we cant get rid of the journey then we have to look at ways to make it more efficient and cleaner, bikes, car-share, EVs, whatever but the main goal is to stop them being made by big heavy FF powered ICE vehicles.

Even a small percentage swap away from current transport choices could make a big difference, and note I'm not even talking EV here, just a move away form single occupancy over-sized inefficient vehicles could make as much difference as many people swapping to EV use.

A bigger picture transport strategy is what's needed, I do think EVs play a part in that, however big that part might be.

I am also very proud of this thread, it hasn't degenerated yet, some people must be on holiday 😀


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:12 pm
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[quote=amedias ]so how quickly did we go from the first ICE cars to widespread rollout of infrastructure to support them?

On the scale of what we need for EVs in 23 years time? Way more than 23 years.

Even a small percentage swap away from current transport choices could make a big difference, and note I'm not even talking EV here, just a move away form single occupancy over-sized inefficient vehicles could make as much difference as many people swapping to EV use.

I'm right with you there - simply swapping from ICE powered large fast vehicles to large fast EVs seems to be missing an opportunity. The trouble is, it's the journeys where there isn't any other practical alternative to a large fast vehicle where EVs don't provide a good alternative.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:15 pm
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@redthunder - ffs

This is an oilsands site:

[img] [/img]


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:16 pm
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so how quickly did we go from the first ICE cars to widespread rollout of infrastructure to support them?

^ I'm genuinely curious about this by the way, trying to track some figures as I know petrol stations have been on the decline since the 90s but I'm wondering when it went from being an enthusiast hobby needing your own fuel supply, to being able to drive anywhere in the Uk and knowing you'd be able to get fuel.

EDIT - from brief reading it seems (obviously) the boom time was 1910 > 1930, at the beginning you'd be buying fuel from chemists or specialists, and then in the 20's licensed pumps were allowed and things spread, but the war and rationing got in the way so hard to make assumptions from there.

A side note/curiosity at most but interesting historical context 🙂


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:19 pm
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It may have already been posted but I read something today about Toyota and solid state batteries.. 2-3 x range and fast charging in minutes.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:19 pm
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Yes of course its incremental, but again the question has to be why do you want oil burners so much ?? Its irrational.

Here are some stats btw to inform how to actually reduce pollution rather than have the usual car tribe nonsense. .

6% of journey under a mile..lazy ****ers!


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:19 pm
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50 years from invention to a bloody nuisance (at a guess).


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:24 pm
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@molgrips

Cool :-).... It's looks like BPW 😉


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:30 pm
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The trouble is, it's the journeys where there isn't any other practical alternative to a large fast vehicle where EVs don't provide a good alternative.

Yup, but I still think that this is actually a smaller problem than we want to admit. There's still a lot of people hanging on to the idea that they couldn't swap to an EV because the range isn't big enough for that trip they take 3 times a year. Logically speaking that's a problem we should be able to find a solution to. Maybe there is more scope for hybrid tech here for that kind of use?

If you could crack the problem* of getting people not to use a car for (even some!) short trips I dare say you'd already have them in the right mindset for an entire plethora of other changes!

* it's cheaper, often quicker, better for you, and better for everyone else apparently aren't good enough arguments 🙄


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:30 pm
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[quote=wilburt ]Yes of course its incremental, but again the question has to be why do you want oil burners so much ?? Its irrational.

I'm not sure who that is replying to, but just in case it's me, I don't. I'd love to have an EV - an EV which is capable of driving to a campsite in North Wales, the Lakes or Dartmoor and back without having to wait hours at a recharge station on the journey. I still wouldn't use it on trips of less than a mile - I still feel a bit awkward making the 2 mile trip to where I park to go into my nearest town because it's so short (most people would drive 4 miles in from here, I tend to cycle/skate the last bit as it's far more convenient).


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:33 pm
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As said many times already, the UK does not have enough power generation for the country to go electric. So you hate coal and nuclear, but the gas powerstations produce nowhere near enough (not far off peak now). Can't have your cake and eat it lads. Bring in nuclear I say, just jettison the waste into space.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:35 pm
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[quote=amedias ]There's still a lot of people hanging on to the idea that they couldn't swap to an EV because the range isn't big enough for that trip they take 3 times a year. Logically speaking that's a problem we should be able to find a solution to.

I'm sure it is - I just want it to be something for which a solution is found, rather than being ignored as too difficult, or not important.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:36 pm
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[quote=robowns ]just jettison the waste into space.

A bit harsh on JRM and BJ


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:36 pm
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I'm sure it is - I just want it to be something for which a solution is found, rather than being ignored as too difficult, or not important.

+ eleventy million!

still, a lot can happen in 23 years... 😉


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:41 pm
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I need a car regardless of the technology ... 😆

[b]Car is freedom ... [/b]

All I know is we are exchanging one form of pollution for another. 🙄

I just hope it does not take two days to travel to London from the North ... you know battery running out of juice and you need to have a place to charge for 8 hours or so ... 😆

theocb - Member
It may have already been posted but I read something today about Toyota and solid state batteries.. 2-3 x range and fast charging in minutes.
If that's true than I shall be first person to buy one coz I like Toyota me. :mrgreen:


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:48 pm
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A side note/curiosity at most but interesting historical context

Also remember that a filling station network is fundamentally easier to build than an electricity grid.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 4:57 pm
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Ah, but the grid itself is already there, so is it easier to build a filling station network than to install chargers on an existing grid*?

Rhetorical question really as neither you nor I know the answer for sure, just
it's another one of those 'not simple' situations.

*even if the grid does need upgrades,


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 5:03 pm
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Ah, but the grid itself is already there, so is it easier to build a filling station network than to install chargers on an existing grid*?

As you say, it needs major upgrades. Who's going to pay for it?

Of course it should be government. But the government should have been investing in rail in the last 80 years to keep pace with developments. So we'd be able to hop on a train to go wherever we want and just pick up a local electric car at the other end. OR even put our local electric car on a train Eurotunnel style.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 5:13 pm
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Maybe there is more scope for hybrid tech here for that kind of use?

Hybrids remove the normal imaginary range problem.
Hybrids remove actual range problems.

Hybrids sort of remove the recharging-on-a-crowded-street-parking problem.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 5:15 pm
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Important point you raise there - far easier for the government to just ban something rather than help provide infrastructure for its replacement.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 5:17 pm
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[quote=mrmonkfinger ]Hybrids remove the normal imaginary range problem.
Hybrids remove actual range problems.
Hybrids sort of remove the recharging-on-a-crowded-street-parking problem.

Hybrids won't be allowed to be sold after 2040?


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 5:17 pm
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How do you think they will get excise duty on the electricity used for charge cars ....

They won't. They'll be replacing the fuel tax with a tax per mile travelled, measured using number plate recognition or GPS black boxes.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 5:22 pm
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Toyota hoping for a 2022 release, though they have already pushed that back from 2020 from initial plans.
BMW also working on their own solid state battery.
Super fast charging would surely be the game changer if a reality

[url= http://www.wired.co.uk/article/toyota-solid-state-battery ]Toyota solid state battery [/url]


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 5:25 pm
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One of the problems with the debate is filtering tomorrow's problems and solution through today's tech etc All the points raised are valid with current tech, culture, infrastructure etc. All these can change.

The announcement is both assuming an advancement of technology that will happen and driving that advancement through deadline setting.

It also helps position UK as forward thinking and technically progressive so attractive for investment. There are big bucks to be made in developing and delivering this tech.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 5:43 pm
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It's a way to force private companies to change - by banning their current products. I'd rather see the government work with them though, I'm sure we'd get more done.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 5:47 pm
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I drive an EV. I'm never going to buy another ICE passenger car. It'd be like trading in my iphone for a 3210........

What needs t happen imo, is that the government needs to offer tax incentives for people to charge at work, from local (on the roof of their workplace) solar.

EV battery size is increasing, yet people aren't driving further daily. Even on my small battery i3, i cart 2/3rds of the battery to work and then home again un-used (i commute 30miles a day). I could charge at work, where my car is parked for 8 hours everyday, from day time solar, then take that power home, and use it to run my house overnight. Even with my current EV, which has a tiny battery, i would have something like 10 kWh of energy to use over night before i had to take anything from the grid!

This solution would provide:

1) Private investment in solar and renewables
2) provide charging for people with no off street parking at home
3) relieve significant increases in grid load
4) Make solar generation capable of providing for over night base load with temporary storage in our cars
5) Mean we don't need to install a second battery at home


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 6:41 pm
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This range thing hasn't been properly thought through. You just need to use Duracells.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 6:45 pm
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Those are the two things you need to address.

1 - renewable - because it has to be
2 - non-polluting - because is should be

Three actually - it also needs to be sustainable.

Which concentrating purely on replacing ICE with EV isn't.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 7:14 pm
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Hybrids won't be allowed to be sold after 2040?

Yes they will. The announcement was no soley diesel or petrol powered cars

As @mrmonkfinger says Hybrids solve the problems now.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 7:31 pm
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An EV with a proper on-board generator would work nicely I reckon. Ban its use in cities, use EV charging infrastructure where available, and petrol where not.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 7:52 pm
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I drive an EV. I'm never going to buy another ICE passenger car. It'd be like trading in my iphone for a 3210........

The first time I saw an i3 was in Rome. It left everything standing at the lights in apparent silence (Rome is a noisy place). One of the few sights in Rome that made me smile.

Having checked out chargemap and confirmed we can charge Zoé from a 10A domestic supply on campsites or at hotels (French Zoés come with both cables as standard) we're now thinking of taking her on holiday with us. Ever since the idea of buying one was a possibility we've been checking whether we could charge wherever we've been. The verdict is that most places we we've spent a night we could charge. Time to put theory into practice.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 8:09 pm
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Very tempted by a cheap used Zoe as a second car.

@Edukator, in the UK campsites usually charge a flat fee for electricity. I bet they'd be pissed off if you charged your car from it 🙂

(not that that's your problem of course)


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 8:11 pm
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a wise man would start storing any sort of classic diesel and petrol cars now, and charge a complete bomb for them when this all comes into effect.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 8:14 pm
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molgrips

@Edukator, in the UK campsites usually charge a flat fee for electricity. I bet they'd be pissed off if you charged your car from it

You may be over estimating the price of 'lecy. To "fill" my EV from completely flat, costs around £1.20. Bearing mind the average campsite seems to relieve one of about £25 a night these days, i wouldn't feel too bad for them.....


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 8:24 pm
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It's usually something like £3-4 per night for the leccy which I agree is somewhat over the odds 🙂


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 8:26 pm
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Zoé draws as much as a camper van or caravan with electric heating. £3-4 is about what it costs to charge from flat - over 20h on a domestic plug. The expensive part is the battery rental at 11e/100km for the first 7500km/annum. The combined cost of battery rental and electricity is about the same as running a medium-sized petrol saloon car. You don't buy one to save money. You buy for the driving experience and the privilege of not poisoning your fellow citizens.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 9:06 pm
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Well all be flying by 2040. Roads will seem quaint and remembered fondly - do you remember when you were restricted to travelling along silly, predetermined routes on the ground in those little metal thingies?


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 9:15 pm
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(French Zoés come with both cables as standard)

That is surprising, as they don't in the UK and they're blummin' expensive! Is it still the case with the ZE40s? Here they pay the remainder of the charge point cost after the government grant, as they apparently recognise that taking 7 hours from empty to full is a much better experience than 25...

The efficiency figures I quoted earlier are derived from the recharge times calculator on the Renault website, but they're recognised as accurate. The Zoe is probably an outlier, admittedly, presumably because of compromises they've had to make to make a single inexpensive charger work across a whole range of powers while still being as efficient as possible at the whole driving bit.

Our Zoe ZE40 turns up next month. I can't wait; it'll be perfect for our 40 miles a day commute. Even now I get really grumpy when I have to waste time going out of my way to fill up with petrol several times more expensive than the amount of electricity we'd need.

Also living where we do I'm looking forward to weekend camping trips to Wales, charging while we stop for dinner on the way there and/or back (if we even need to at all...) 🙂


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 9:16 pm
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Yup, Zoé 40 with two cables.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 9:27 pm
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Expect GPS tracking of all cars along with road tax charges based on journey taken or more road charging schemes esp in the cities, hmm we've started that way already..

The Gov isn't going to put up electricity charges massively to balance the shortfall in fuel duties as how could they tell what a dwelling is using for some poor granny heating the part of her home that she can afford, or someone charging their car on a cold winters night. Smart meters you say, how could said smart meter tell the difference between the drain on a car slowly charging overnight against perhaps an electric bar heater on?

So the way its going expect all new cars to be IOT connected along with the GPS tracking to report where you are/been/going at what speed, along with a bill at the end of the month/year for road duties..

Oh and based on the current track record the Gov will allow every single agency (and selected third parties) to have access to that data on the flimsiest of excuses.

Ps been driving hybrids for 10 years or so now, electric motors make a fantastic difference to how a car drives, so I expect I'll convert at some point once the range goes up a bit (along with lots more infrastructure)


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 9:42 pm
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I think the car will be a mixture of ...

1. Electric
2. Hybrid
3. Hydrogen

I prefer Hybrid first ... 😛


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 9:48 pm
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The combined cost of battery rental and electricity is about the same as running a medium-sized petrol saloon car. You don't buy one to save money.

Until you do save money, then for many, the EV route is a non starter.

I get that range anxiety versus actual range required can be different ... however, the perceptions that there are hurdles to go through with an EV (limited charging points at the moment etc) mean for many that the advantages don't yet outweigh the disadvantages. ... and frankly the advantage of others not breathing fumes doesn't carry much weighting in my books compared to other factors.

At the moment, I'm personally not convinced that battery production is clean enough environmentally to mean that the EV carbon footprint as a whole is environmentally clean.

I still think that fuel cell offers the best interim solution where you can generate the fuel from renewables (albeit not efficicently) and that the distribution could tap existing fuel delivery networks in a way that most people would relate to i.e. attend a pump, full up in minutes, and get the same range as before.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 9:50 pm
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Realistically charging an electric vehicle from home is a non starter for most given the need for the infrastructure on street which is where most cars are parked.

Isn't it more likely batteries will be swapped out for fresh ones and the old ones recharged at a central location such as a redundant petrol station for the majority with the lucky few with off street parking being able to recharge at home and swap batteries for longer journeys? It's likely range will increase massively by 2040 making it similar to filling up today.

We may even have hydrogen by then so let's not assume electric is the only solution.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 9:59 pm
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Perhaps it would be more efficient to generate the hydrogen at the point of sale, that way you haven't big tankers on the roads, big refineries, every petrol station has an electricity supply and most likely a water supply. Convert the underground tanks for Hydrogen and as they are underground it'll help with the insulation most likely required.

Easier for the gov too as they can continue with fuel duties, as after all cracking Hydrogen at home at scale is a tad more difficult than running an extension lead out of the kitchen window.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 10:00 pm
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Yup - that's along my thoughts. If we are happy to distribute propane / LPG in liquid forms, then whats the big issue about doing it with hydrogen.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 10:09 pm
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Refining the idea if I was an oil producing state in the middle east where it's a bit sunny, I've loads of uninhabited land and my petro industry is about to tank I'd think about investing in solar to power hydrogen generation from sea water. Liquify and transport in those now redundant tanker. No digging up the road and no power cables out the kitchen window. Problem solved?


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 10:11 pm
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Realistically charging an electric vehicle from home is a non starter ...

Imagine if you live on the 5th floor flat then charging your car could be a bit tricky ... 😀

edit: Hybrid, then Hydrogen then electric. 😛


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 10:13 pm
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[quote=maxtorque ]I drive an EV. I'm never going to buy another ICE passenger car. It'd be like trading in my iphone for a 3210........

Great battery life with a 3210...


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 10:24 pm
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It also has snake. I loved snake.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 10:26 pm
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Perhaps it would be more efficient to generate the hydrogen at the point of sale, that way you haven't big tankers on the roads, big refineries, every petrol station has an electricity supply and most likely a water supply. Convert the underground tanks for Hydrogen and as they are underground it'll help with the insulation most likely required.

Easier for the gov too as they can continue with fuel duties, as after all cracking Hydrogen at home at scale is a tad more difficult than running an extension lead out of the kitchen window.

We used to generate our own hydrogen and oxygen on site. The plant was a heap and pretty much never worked, we now bring it all in by road tanker. You would also need a pretty big plant to make it viable to supply several hundred vehicles a day so a petrol station is no use.

Hydrogen isn't cryogenic so doesn't need insulated either, not that you would want a gas stored underground anyway as that's not good conditions for a tank.

It's also not exactly hard to put your car charger on a second meter, Economy 7 anyone?

Imagine if you live on the 5th floor flat then charging your car could be a bit tricky ...

Actually seen a cable running from a second floor flat across the road to the street running perpendicular where a Twizy was parked. Would have been funny to see the carnage if it got snagged by a passing lorry...


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 10:27 pm
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If longer range and fast charging within a few minutes become a reality then no need for anyone to charge at home.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 10:43 pm
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[quote=jambalaya ]Yes they will. The announcement was no soley diesel or petrol powered cars
As @mrmonkfinger says Hybrids solve the problems now.

Well that changes the discussion somewhat - I have now found confirmation of that, though I'm not sure why so little emphasis is being placed on it and so much on the idea that we'll all be driving around in electric cars. Because if they're not banning hybrids then I see no obvious reason why the ban couldn't be brought in significantly earlier - the infrastructure for hybrids already exists and pretty much all the issues raised on this thread are solved!

TBH it seems like the obvious gateway solution - you lose none of the advantages of ICE vehicles, but you get advantages of the electric motors and there is incentive to improve the electric vehicle infrastructure.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 10:49 pm
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Liquify and transport in those now redundant tanker. No digging up the road and no power cables out the kitchen window. Problem solved?

AFAIK it's difficult to handle and tends to leak out of anything it's stored in.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 10:54 pm
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This has to the the most ridiculous thread in STW history.

Yes I know stiff competition from sticky cats and whatever but its just about a change the juice that helps lazy folk get about no big deal shirley.

The new stuff may not work for everyone today but it will soon.

In the mean time can we get the tranny van,buses and landrovers that are pumping
ploomes of black shit off the road please.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 10:58 pm
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From ClientEarth, the people who keep winning in court against the government's feeble or absent air pollution plans; the new scheme is...

...little more than a shabby rewrite of the previous draft plans and is underwhelming and lacking in urgency.
...
The 2040 diesel and petrol ban, while important is a diversionary tactic and doesn’t deal with the public health emergency caused by illegally polluted air, now.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 11:25 pm
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Yup - that's along my thoughts. If we are happy to distribute propane / LPG in liquid forms, then whats the big issue about doing it with hydrogen.

David MacKay didn't think H was viable.

In the CUTE (Clean Urban Transport for Europe) project, which
was intended to demonstrate the feasibility and reliability of fuelcell
buses and hydrogen technology, fuelling the hydrogen buses required
between 80% and 200% more energy than the baseline diesel
bus.

Hydrogen is a less convenient
energy storage medium than most liquid fuels, because of its bulk,
whether stored as a high pressure gas or as a liquid (which requires a
temperature of -253 °C). Even at a pressure of 700 bar (which requires a
hefty pressure vessel) its energy density (energy per unit volume) is 22%
of gasoline’s. The cryogenic tank of the BMW Hydrogen 7 weighs 120 kg
and stores 8 kg of hydrogen. Furthermore, hydrogen gradually leaks out
of any practical container.E If you park your hydrogen car at the railway
station with a full tank and come back a week later, you should expect to
find most of the hydrogen has gone.E

https://www.withouthotair.com/c20/page_130.shtml


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 11:44 pm
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Instead of messing about with electric cars, a really ambitious vision of the future would be getting people out of cars and cycling.
36% of all citizens are commuting to work, school or university by bicycle in Copenhagen. That's something to aim for.


 
Posted : 26/07/2017 11:53 pm
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AFAIK it's difficult to handle and tends to leak out of anything it's stored in.

You are misinformed.

Transfer is as easy as setting a pressure differential as per any gas. Get a thick enough container and it will hold it, our bottle farm holds its gas. Incidentally this is one of the reasons why H2 ICE's don't really work, you need a lot of tank to get a decent range which is why only buses have them (cylinders can go on the roof)


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 12:25 am
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Instead of messing about with electric cars, a really ambitious vision of the future would be getting people out of cars and cycling.

Absolutely.
Electric cars don't solve a problem, they just move it.
They allow people to feel good about themselves without having to go through the hassle of actually adjusting their behaviour.

Unfortunately they're a much welcomed panacea for those that don't want to take responsibility for their actions and actually change their lifestyle. 💡


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 12:33 am
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Imagine if electric cars were the norm and ICE cars were being foisted on us in 23 years time,
ICE vehicles are mechanically very highly complex (create a series of explosions inside a heavy explosion proof container) that require annual inspection/adjustment/repair
Require 8ish litres of oil to be changed every year and disposed of
Toxic cooling liquids
Various filters to be discarded annually
Carry upto 80ish litres of highly flammable liquid (in petrols case)
Require refilling at dedicated fuelling stations
Etc etc

They'd never catch on!

Personally I'd have an electric car tomorrow (and I'm a car tinkerer happy to get his hands dirty kinda guy) the only thing stopping me is I do bangernomics but if for some reason I bought a new car it would be without a doubt electric. I own a Fluke ossciliscope - I'm ready for electric bangernomics in 10years time!


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 6:03 am
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What about lawnmowers...how can grounds firms cut acres of grass all day based on weedy electric things that last an hour? ?


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 7:01 am
 igm
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Ok. I have read the full thread, but as I work for one of the power grids and most of my time is working on EVs at the moment I thought I'd chip in with some stuff.

I am not an expert on EVs - I'm an electrical networks man - but I spend a lot of time talking to EVs experts. Thing is, they rarely know anything about networks, so...

The car manufacturers are on as steep a learning curve about networks as networks folk are about EVs.

A Nissan Leaf (the new one with the bigger battery) can do 3-4 days typical driving on a single charge.

It has enough energy to power a house for 3 days (roughly) but not enough power.

A typical day's driving would recharge in about 90 minutes on a slow rate charger.

Unmanaged charging (30m EVs assumed) would add 60% to the peak power consumption of the country - the networks can take about a third of that without major reinforcement, but generation will struggle.

Charging overnight is probably a bad idea in a PV dominated generation world.

EVs can provide storage services - called V2G, V2H or V2X. This can help maintain the battery (technology dependent).

Slow rate charging is probably better for the battery.

Slow rate charging is better for providing storage services because the car is more likely to be connected to the charger.

Buying enough DC chargers would cost the same per annum as an entire new 132kV to LV distribution system the same size as the existing one. That's the charger cost before they are installed and connected.

Many of the issues are perception and thinking of EVs as IC cars where you replaced the fuel tank and battery. A bit like thinking of a mobile as a landline without the wires - the first generation were, but iPhones aren't.

The problems will diminish, if only because people like me are paid to sort them. Many problems will be sorted via logistics or societal solutions not technology solutions - so I will need help.

The solutions for 2040/50 will have to work in 2040/50 - sounds obvious but a lot of folk are ignoring that. EVs are coming but they aren't the only change that's coming.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 7:45 am
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Instead of messing about with electric cars, a really ambitious vision of the future would be getting people out of cars and cycling.

Well... There's 2 big seismic changes in car use coming now, this and autonomous vehicles. Both will have a big effect on our love affair with the car. Autonomous much more so but it all contributes.

Personally I think this change is actually not going to be that significant in the end compared to other disruptive changes. A lot of the issues people raise are to do with car ownership and the idea of replacing all 31.7 million cars but as soon as you have full autonomy, millions of people won't want or need a car, it's a huge step from ownership to being basically a service.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 11:45 am
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Cycling would be great if you could roll onto a long distance or local train, stick your bike in a slot and then enjoy the trip, and hop off the other end for a few minutes of easy cycling to get to the door.

It's not quite that good though yet is it?


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 12:02 pm
 igm
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Autonomous vehicles bought as a trip / service will reduce the number of vehicles but not the miles / energy requirement.
In fact they might slightly increase the day-to-day miles / energy requirement and due to the increased utilisation reduce the available charging time increasing the power requirement. Note the distinction between energy and power.
The increase utilisation will also reduce the potential for V2G services, increasing the need for fixed storage and reducing the potential for supplementary income for vehicle owners.
The sum total of this is, while I suspect there will be a trend to mobility services, don't bet on it being quite as clear cut as it looks.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 12:24 pm
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Autonomous vehicles bought as a trip / service will reduce the number of vehicles but not the miles / energy requirement.

But I reckon it will also significantly increase viability of mass trasit, and therefore make EV usage much more viable.

Or, you could swap EVs on a long journey like swapping horses on a stagecoach. Or maybe just swap batteries into another car which would then drive itself to get recharged.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 12:37 pm
 igm
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Many things are possible.

Swapping EVs on a long journey isn't plausible though if luggage gets involved. Unless you can just swap the boot over too.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 12:42 pm
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Well you'd have to containerise the luggage or the battery. But in any case not that much of a chore to swap three bags out of one boot into another.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 12:44 pm
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I think as the energy source becomes more finite we might become more discerning about what we carry around. An SUV sized object with one person in it will not go as far as a smaller lighter vehicle with similar capacity.

How about a vehicle (no idea how you configure it!) that is actually two vehicles capable of carrying a single person each for their daily commute but can be combined to make a family sized vehicle with greater range for the the occasional weekend trip or to transport bigger crap round? Or a Toyota iQ sized thing for efficient transport and easy parking with the ability to snap half a car of extension to it for family journeys/ weekends away?


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 12:49 pm
 igm
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How about a facility at motorway services where you can rent a trailer full of batteries? Connect & tow then drop off as you leave the motorway?

It'd work on the péage.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 12:49 pm
 igm
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PS keep the ideas coming I have another meeting with the government's advisor on Tuesday - plagiarism is good for me.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 12:51 pm
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How about a facility at motorway services where you can rent a trailer full of batteries? Connect & tow then drop off as you leave the motorway?

Hmmm - I like it. A layer of batteries very low down for CofG reasons and effectively a big box on top for transporting your luggage. That would not work to pick up en route though as you would have to get the luggage there in the first place. You would have to hire it locally to load at home.

edit - ah - bin dun (at least in theory)

[img] [/img]


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 12:55 pm
 igm
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Indeed. Thing is almost anything has been done once. It's rolling out millions of them that's the problem.

As I recall they can't make them too big because of the weight, so on your trip to the Alps you'd need two or three trailers worth in each direction.

But possible. Now is it plausible.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 1:01 pm
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I also think there should be a big market for something like an electric one of these:-

[img] [/img]

Don't get me wrong - I like cycling and cycle commuted for years but it's not without it's compromises. British weather, typical British commute distances and the need to change at work if you have got yourself all sweaty will always put a lot of people off. A small nippy at least semi weather proof and easy to park commute vehicle has to be a win for a big proportion of journeys.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 1:05 pm
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People like owning their own cars, camper vans, bikes or whatever. There really is no need to own a camper van that comes out of storage three weeks a years but the storage areas locally are full. The average number of days a boat moored in Arcachon is out of port is ten. And that despite the fact most people know their holiday dates long in advance and could book a rental.

Look at the number of Air X-bust-my-bike threads despite the ease of renting high quality bikes almost anywhere. People are prepared to pay extra for having their bike mishandled when they could drop theri favourite saddle in their bag and rent a bike.

I think the current model of ownership will continue to dominate with slow transition to hybrids and EVs. Most UK households have two cars, on an individual level the first aim of a government should be to make one of those vehicles an EV or a plug-in hybrid with an 8kWh battery.

One immediate infrastructure incentive would be to tax company and commercial car parks that don't have a charging station on one in fifty car places. The proportion could be steadily increased. Exceptions could be made for car parks not on the grid or in areas with insufficient grid capacity.

There are curently four places at my local Leclerc (thanks for 3kWh this morning, M.Leclerc, while we did our shopping), currently adequate but not for much longer I hope. Yes, we do most of our shopping on foot or by bike but now and then we stock up the heavy items.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 1:06 pm
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People are prepared to pay extra for having their bike mishandles when they could drop theri favourite saddle in their bag and rent a bike.

Not quite the same though. Bikes are heavily personalised, and they are also still used for the rest of the year at least weekly, so you still need to own one. The rental cost is therefore additional. If you only rented a campervan for holidays you would not then own one so it would probably be cheaper.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 1:09 pm
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The only people who buy a Twizzy are drunks or road hogs who no longer have a car license, Convert.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 1:14 pm
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Edukator - Reformed Troll

People like owning their own cars, camper vans, bikes or whatever. There really is no need to own a camper van that comes out of storage three weeks a years but the storage areas locally are full. The average number of days a boat moored in Arcachon is out of port is ten. And that despite the fact most people know their holiday dates long in advance and could book a rental.

OK but what these things all have in common is that they're luxuries. People who just want a bike or car to get to the shops mostly aren't very possessive of them and where they are it's generally only because they have them (lots of people love their runaround but as something they have, not something they'd necessarily miss). Petrolheads, boat owners, flashy bike owners are all a minority already even without other things pushing back against it.

Also I think it's pretty displacable- people who're currently into cars in a lot of cases will end up being into something similar. I thought of myself as a Motorbike Guy but eventually I discovered I was just a Tinkerer Guy, I love my car and I love working on it but I could apply that easily to other things, in fact I do. The actual Petrolhead Who Is Only Into Cars is possibly quite small.

(and even then there'll be things for the Petrolhead Who Is Only Into Cars to do with cars- restos, track or rally, that sort of thing. Bit of a shift to a US model. (isn't it weird that a country so in love with cars has relatively little simple competition? 7 quarter mile strips, hardly any paved autocross...)

If all else fails there's always the Endless Project. Dude down my road is going to die before he finishes his Se7en. I'll be the same if I ever get a garage and the rustbox vauxhall firenza I want, I'll spent 20 years welding bits into it and trying to squeeze in an LS, driving it'll be beside the point.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 1:23 pm
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The only people who buy a Twizzy are drunks or road hogs who no longer have a car license, Convert.

Maybe n France, still need a licence here regardless.

One immediate infrastructure incentive would be to tax company and commercial car parks that don't have a charging station on one in fifty car places. The proportion could be steadily increased. Exceptions could be made for car parks not on the grid or in areas with insufficient grid capacity.

There are already planning laws that can be used to address this. You can make sustainable transport a stipulation but it rarely gets used or if it does services quickly get cut (see QE hospital in Glasgow)


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 1:24 pm
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I was thinking a bit smaller than a twizy. A twizy is like a tiny car rather than a covered moped. I'm not sure where I'd park a twizy around here - would it park with the motorbikes or in a car park spot? I suspect the latter.


 
Posted : 27/07/2017 2:25 pm
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