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Reform may have a polling lead, but it's incredibly brittle
Exactly. Polls at this stage of a parliament - 4 years out from an election - are utterly pointless
I expect that if it ever became an even slightly realistic possibility that frog face could end up in number 10, then the ‘anyone but Farage’ tactical vote would be absolutely huge!
30% say (for now) that they’d vote for him, but a massive chunk of that other 70% think he’s an utter and complete ****! Not least the 48% (and growing) who voted for remain
A quick scan of the polling on You Gov
I suspect a lot will change over the next couple of years and polls won't reflect the votes in that area (the protest or watch-it-burn vote) well. I hope I'm wrong and Reform implode but I hoped common sense would prevail over Brexit and Trump. Nope, politics is no longer about common sense. More people vote on hope and emotion than policy and reason now.
30% say (for now) that they’d vote for him
If there's 5 parties to vote for that's plenty enough for a win. With 6 parties to vote for it only needs 17-25%.
Unf I would expect their support to go up rather than down over the coming years.
Now was roughly the point where Starmer, having stabilised things a bit, should have been making the case for the UK to stop acting ****ishly and start moving towards EU alignment with an end point of (re)joining.
Instead he's in a doom spiral of legitimising Farage's bigotry by trying to out-nasty Reform. History will judge his Island of Strangers speech as one of the worst miscalculations in UK politics. As well as utterly cowardly.
What do we reckon the truth is in the allegations that Farage is a tax dodger?
So I asked for someone, (anyone)? to clarify what data Mr Malhotra got incorrect in his speech. But as yet nothing substantial apart from some character assassination an deferral to authority type stuff. Are we to take from this that he has indeed got all his facts correct? Perhaps it is the case that the flak is indeed heaviest when directly over the target?
Of note is people claiming that 'millions' of lives were saved by the Covid vaccines. But the vaccines were never ever tested for mortality, and nor was they ever tested for transmission. The Pfizer vaccine was tested against the prevention of mild to moderate Covid 19 symptoms. For this, the Actual Risk Reduction (ARR) of the Pfizer Covid vaccine was approximately 0.84% as reported in the Pfizer clinical trials. This means that for every 119 people who received the vaccine instead of placebo, one additional symptomatic COVID-19 case was prevented. So hardly that effective then?
Interesting too that there are more and more studies coming out that compare excess deaths in vaccinated v's unvaccinated cohorts, finding that excess deaths in the vaccinated cohort are always higher. One such study out of many shows that death rate from Covid was actually higher in more heavily vaccinated countries, and increased after vaccination. How can this be?
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09246479251336610
Again, I ask for a critique of the data presented by Dr Malhotra, because character assassination, or blaming the wrong politics, or deferral to industry funded or media hit-pieces, just don't cut the mustard I'm afraid, and if this is all people have then I am inclined to believe that Mr Malhotra is indeed telling some inconvenient truths.
Never mind that Dai, how many millions of tax dollars you reckon Our Nige has swindled the country out of?
Given how much (by his actions, not GBN appearances, conference speeches etc) he seems to hate Britain it’s hot to be a good old lump don’t you think?
🤔 😉
@Dai Hard
Probably best to resurrect the covid thread mate?
Now was roughly the point where Starmer, having stabilised things a bit, should have been making the case for the UK to stop acting ****ishly and start moving towards EU alignment with an end point of (re)joining.
As much as I'd love is to rejoin the EU as soon as possible I can't but wonder what the EU think of us rejoining anytime soon. We could easily have a party in power in a few short years that will tear up any agreement we've made with them over the last year, let alone what's they would do if we rejoined.
I'm not sure we are stable enough to rejoin them from their point of view. They would be importing a hell of a lot of needless trouble.
Never mind that Dai, how many millions of tax dollars you reckon Our Nige has swindled the country out of?
Given how much (by his actions, not GBN appearances, conference speeches etc) he seems to hate Britain it’s hot to be a good old lump don’t you think?
No idea, but do we recon it is more or less than Angie Three Houses? How exactly is it in your opinion that he seem to hate Britain?
Oh god, we’ve got another one of them, have we? Or maybe the last one just logging on under a different user name…
🙄
The Pfizer vaccine was tested against the prevention of mild to moderate Covid 19 symptoms. For this, the Actual Risk Reduction (ARR) of the Pfizer Covid vaccine was approximately 0.84% as reported in the Pfizer clinical trials. This means that for every 119 people who received the vaccine instead of placebo, one additional symptomatic COVID-19 case was prevented. So hardly that effective then?
Thing is that is not a measure of how a vaccine protects the vaccinatied individual and a very poor measure of vaccine performance. You've quoted a Lancet article so why not link the actual article with the RRR Relative Risk Reduction which is 95% for Pfizer and 94% for Moderna.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00069-0/fulltext
Just like your Dr hero you are selectively using information to diss vaccination and ignoring the upsides.
As for your link - there were lower death rates in the pre-vaccination lockdown and socila distancing periods than in the vaccination periods in which social distancing stopped and Covid allowed to run through a partly vaccinated population - entirely logical and nothing to do with vaccine efficacity. As for comparing African countries where most people don't live to the age Covid maight kill them with countries with ageing populations really is comparing apples with pears.
Again like your Dr hero you can make true statement that are misleading and not very useful.
100% of people die at some time in their life is true but doesn't tell you much.
No idea, but do we recon it is more or less than Angie Three Houses? How exactly is it in your opinion that he seem to hate Britain?
Well given she’s now paid her tax (bit late I agree) probably more, but I think a thorough investigation of Nige would show it either way.
On the Nige hates Britain, try these:
His recent appearance in the states
His continual running down of everything in Britain as broken
The flag thing (ok, I’m crediting him with that, possibly unfairly) that highlights how disunited the kingdoms are. (Ok it is also slightly (dark comedy) funny given all the flags are at half mast in mourning for the nations)
Moaning on about immigration - much of which was caused by his pet project, Brexit
Brexit, his pet project, which has and continues to damage our well being as a country, our economy and our wallets
His “non-dom for £250k one off” plan which is just looking after other rich tax dodgers
His “Trussonomics II - The unwanted sequel” borrow and spend plans
I suspect a lot will change over the next couple of years and polls won't reflect the votes in that area
Yes, you're spot on, can't argue with that
I hope I'm wrong and Reform implode
Farage led political parties do have a habit of self immolating, so keep your finger crossed
The Pfizer vaccine was tested against the prevention of mild to moderate Covid 19 symptoms. For this, the Actual Risk Reduction (ARR) of the Pfizer Covid vaccine was approximately 0.84% as reported in the Pfizer clinical trials. This means that for every 119 people who received the vaccine instead of placebo, one additional symptomatic COVID-19 case was prevented. So hardly that effective then?
Thing is that is not a measure of how a vaccine protects the vaccinatied individual and a very poor measure of vaccine performance. You've quoted a Lancet article so why not link the actual article with the RRR Relative Risk Reduction which is 95% for Pfizer and 94% for Moderna.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00069-0/fulltext
Just like your Dr hero you are selectively using information to diss vaccination and ignoring the upsides.
As for your link - there were lower death rates in the pre-vaccination lockdown and socila distancing periods than in the vaccination periods in which social distancing stopped and Covid allowed to run through a partly vaccinated population - entirely logical and nothing to do with vaccine efficacity. As for comparing African countries where most people don't live to the age Covid maight kill them with countries with ageing populations really is comparing apples with pears.
Again like your Dr hero you can make true statement that are misleading and not very useful.
100% of people die at some time in their life is true but doesn't tell you much.
I don't think you understand the meaning of a 95% Relative Risk Reduction (RRR), and whilst it sounds impressive in marketing terms, RRR can sometimes vastly exaggerate the benefit of a treatment, especially when the absolute risk (the actual difference in risk) is very low, as it was in this case with the Covid vaccines. This is why quoting the Actual Risk Reduction (ARR) alongside the RRR is important so as not to mislead. But all we heard quoted in the media, and from you, was/is the RRR, never the ARR. Which shows that you simply don't understand how these things work.
How exactly is it in your opinion that he seem to hate Britain
Well, he went to Congress in America and perjured himself with easily disproved lies about free speech in this country, lied again about the actions of his party in restricting freedom of the press - all as part of a call to support additional US tariffs to damage the UK economy.
And got very huffy when asked why he was over there doing that, rather than doing his day job as an MP that my taxes pay him to do.
That's not the actions of someone who likes his country or is patriotic. It's the actions of a self serving traitorous grifter. And a lying ****.
No idea, but do we recon it is more or less than Angie Three Houses? How exactly is it in your opinion that he seem to hate Britain?
which has and continues to damage our well being as a country, our economy and our wallets
Thankfully he seems to have a plan for that, to ditch the utterly pointless charade that is 'Net Zero'. That should save us around £30 billion a year.
I don't think you understand the meaning of a 95% Relative Risk Reduction (RRR),
Which shows that you simply don't understand how these things work.
Post reported. I think NickC has it.
Which shows that you simply don't understand how these things work.
You being a newbie here won't be aware, but we had several very educational years on here being schooled on vaccines, testing and statistical modelling by people who are recognised experts in the field. Unless you can point to any papers YOU have had published in these areas, you might want to sit this one out, or at least take it over to the Covid thread where it belongs.
I don't think you understand the meaning of a 95% Relative Risk Reduction (RRR),
That a bit rich given the wilful ignorance you've been demonstrating with your every post. I think NickC has it.
If you provide some data to challenge the data that Mr Malhotra presented in his speech, then I will perhaps start to take you seriously.
Thankfully he seems to have a plan for that, to ditch the utterly pointless charade that is 'Net Zero'. That should save us around £30 billion a year
Hey, this Dai kid is good. Ish.
Sorry that one doesn’t work - not pointless, won’t save that money because you loose the income as well as the expenditure.
Which shows that you simply don't understand how these things work.
You being a newbie here won't be aware, but we had several very educational years on here being schooled on vaccines, testing and statistical modelling by people who are recognised experts in the field. Unless you can point to any papers YOU have had published in these areas, you might want to sit this one out, or at least take it over to the Covid thread where it belongs.
Oh really? Someone with a vested interest perhaps? Didn't work for the utterly discredited lot at Imperial College did they?
But yeah, I'll stop on this now as my intention is not to wind people up, and I can see that people react badly and start to throw their toys out of the pram when they have their long held beliefs challenged. So it's okay, heads back in the sand guys.
If you provide some data to challenge the data that Mr Malhotra presented in his speech, then I will perhaps start to take you seriously.
Dr Malhotra stated he would not present the data in his speech. Nothing to respond to.
Time for the Mods to arbitrate this one.
Thankfully he seems to have a plan for that, to ditch the utterly pointless charade that is 'Net Zero'. That should save us around £30 billion a year.
HOUSE!
Dai - you’re not winding me up. I like surreal humour
Thankfully he seems to have a plan for that, to ditch the utterly pointless charade that is 'Net Zero'. That should save us around £30 billion a year
Hey, this Dai kid is good. Ish.
Sorry that one doesn’t work - not pointless, won’t save that money because you loose the income as well as the expenditure.
Don't you mean the Chinese and foreign owned windmill and energy companies will loose the jobs and income from manufacturing all this stuff for us. Wonder where all those taxpayer subsidies that prop up UK renewables will be diverted to instead?
If you provide some data to challenge the data that Mr Malhotra presented in his speech, then I will perhaps start to take you seriously.
Dr Malhotra stated he would not present the data in his speech. Nothing to respond to.
Time for the Mods to arbitrate this one.
So you've lost the argument, hence you are running to the moderators?
Ive seen this pattern before. Porn incoming before the inevitable flounce.
Yeah yeah yeah, because if this place is open house to anti-vax propaganda like the Reform stage it's not a place I want to hang out.
Facts are guys that like it or not, Reform are on course to win the next election. I look forward to the day when our prime minister is someone who does not believe that a women can have a cock and balls. And someone who ditches this Net Zero farce, based on the great 'CO2 controls the climate' scam that is about to bankrupt the UK with ever increasing energy costs from our intermittent and unreliable wind power folly. Thankfully Trump has seen the light, and soon we will follow in the great man's footsteps.
The renewables that are cheaper than gas?
No subsidies were involved in my renewable installation (unlike the £17bn or so of subsidies the oil & gas industry get).
Payback for me is around 4-6 years with a 15-25 year production expectation.
Private renewable investment (generally completely subsidy free) is one of the biggest growth areas in the UK at the moment.
Sadly you are right though that Brexit makes folk more likely to buy their renewable kit from, say, China than more locally. But I assume that was Nige’s plan
Or maybe it was to try and make us reliant on Russian gas - the Russians have slipped him a bit of cash over the years have they not?
Thankfully Trump has seen the light, and soon we will follow in the great man's footsteps.
Kowtowing to Putin?
The renewables that are cheaper than gas?
No subsidies were involved in my renewable installation (unlike the £17bn or so of subsidies the oil & gas industry get).
Payback for me is around 4-6 years with a 15-25 year production expectation.
Private renewable investment (generally completely subsidy free) is one of the biggest growth areas in the UK at the moment.
Sadly you are right though that Brexit makes folk more likely to buy their renewable kit from, say, China than more locally. But I assume that was Nige’s plan
Or maybe it was to try and make us reliant on Russian gas - the Russians have slipped him a bit of cash over the years have they not?
We won't have any Russian gas for that much longer, as Russia have just done a deal with China to supply them with gas instead through a new pipeline, cutting off Europe. But yeah, sanctions, yeah Ukraine etc. So in the absence of much Nuclear, it's either start drilling in the North Sea again, or perhaps instead, invest in candles for when the wind does not blow.
I look forward to the day when our prime minister is someone who does not believe that a women can have a cock and balls.
I look forward to the day when you say something like that in real life to the wrong person and you get the kicking bigots like you deserve.
It's coming, your type is very vocal from behind your masks and keyboards, but there are many many more of us than you.
Thankfully Trump has seen the light, and soon we will follow in the great man's footsteps.
I tried to cut this clown some slack earlier in the thread. I take it back.
I look forward to the day when our prime minister is someone who does not believe that a women can have a cock and balls.
I look forward to the day when you say something like that in real life to the wrong person and you get the kicking bigots like you deserve.
It's coming, your type is very vocal from behind your masks and keyboards, but there are many many more of us than you.
So you think a woman can have a cock and balls?
Yes, I do.
I also know a man can have a uterus.
Just another dull troll, in a long line of boring dull trolls.
He/ she/ they will be gone in a couple of days, they always overstep the line with their bullshit and out themselves as total psychos.
See ya.
Yes, I do.
I also know a man can have a uterus.
Yeah, in the case of an exceedingly rare medical condition. But most men claiming to be women, and women claiming to be men, are clearly mentally ill and should probably be treated as such.
based on the great 'CO2 controls the climate' scam
A reply to you copied to the Mods:
As a geologist I can confirm CO2 really does play a major role in controling the climate.
How long are you going to let this guy post his conspiracy bollocks? At some point moderating a forum means being on the side of verifiable facts, and the side of right and good.
Have a pleasant evening all, I'll drop in tomorrow and see how this went.
The Mods must be on holiday, that's hate speech above and still no sign of action.
Yes, I do.
I also know a man can have a uterus.
Yeah, in the case of an exceedingly rare medical condition. But most men claiming to be women, and women claiming to be men, are clearly mentally ill and should probably be treated as such.
Would you say gays and lesbiens are mentally ill too? 🤣