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Ach, too late for an edit but- you'd better be damn sure that the Tories are learning every possible lesson from the last election. Labour can't afford to settle for simple answers or scapegoats, as tempting as that is. But this is a mistake they've made over and over, and it's probably easier to make that same mistake again than to do better this time.
gauss1777
Member
When people were shouting to be rid of Corbyn, (or was it just Binners?)
People were shouting to be rid of Binners? Bit harsh.
Scotland is a write-off for Labour. They are the fourth party. So many SNP/Con marginals that Labour supporters will be obliged to tactically vote SNP.
Labour would be best just to rely on SNP support issue by issue. The "coalition of chaos" message is good for galvanising Scots Torys but no one in the rest of the UK seems to g.a.s? Union polled as not as important as Brexit etc?
According to to her Twitter, Lammy is Sturgeons "favourite Labour politician", pic of them cuddling etc. You'd imagine that they could work together well. UK Labour not in a position to turn its nose up at 48 potentially sympathetic MPs.
According to to her Twitter, Lammy is Sturgeons “favourite Labour politician”, pic of them cuddling etc. You’d imagine that they could work together well. UK Labour not in a position to turn its nose up at 48 potentially sympathetic MPs.
Which makes him toxic for Scottish Labour, the toxicity between SNP and Scottish Labour sometimes has to be seen to be believed. A London "mate" for Sturgeon would see membership cards getting torn up
crimsondynamo
Subscriber
Scotland is a write-off for Labour. They are the fourth party. So many SNP/Con marginals that Labour supporters will be obliged to tactically vote SNP.
Third party in vote share, only 4th in seats due to FPTP- MPs are a good way to count victories in an election but longer term trends come from votes not seats. And for that matter, while they're 7% behind the tories today, they were 1.5% behind in 2015. These aren't massive swings in a 3-and-a-bit party country, especially in what's going to continue to be an incredibly turbulent and divisive political climate.
As for tactical voting- in 2010, the SNP had to watch people tactically vote Labour against the Tories, just like Labour did in this election (they just did it with more grace and with an eye on the future). In 2015, they went from 6 seats and 20% of the vote, to 56 seats and 50% of the vote. In terms of voter share Labour today are in almost the same position as the SNP in 2010. Luckily the SNP didn't think that was a "write off".
Me, I'm a scottish nationalist, I'd be perfectly happy for Labour to just give up in Scotland. But it'd be really stupid of them. I do accept that every strategy they've had in Scotland has been stupid recently, but you never know. The good thing about annihilation is that it's easier to change things when you've got basically nothing to lose.
big_n_daft
Member
Which makes him toxic for Scottish Labour, the toxicity between SNP and Scottish Labour sometimes has to be seen to be believed.
Another thing which they desperately need to fix. A less insane approach in Scotland could easily have prevented Theresa May from forming a government, last time round- the scottish tories made the difference and the chances of that happening if they'd approached it any other way were slim.
Nobody senior in the party seemed to even understand that let alone act on it, but hopefully next time round they'll remember the difference between rivals and enemies. How anyone can compartmentalise "We hate this party so much that we'll run against them as our main opponents even at the expense of putting tories into SNP seats" and "we will probably need these guys' votes if we're going to govern again in the next decade" I don't know.
(Being opposed to independence shouldn't come into it since pretty much everyone with a brain realises that there would never be a Yes vote in an indyref under a national Labour government... the best thing Labour can do to fight independence is to make a UK that most Scots want to be part of, while the best thing for independence is to have a Tory government doing the opposite.)
Labour need to realise its what the general public want that matters and not just about the labour members
Yep, and I don't think they are going to realise this when then elect new leader. Very few people commenting on this thread understand it.
Popularity first, policies/ethics/integrity second.
The fact you don't see an issue with David Lammy in the Brexiter/racist northern constituencies is evidence of this. Don't think about who you would want as a decent leader, think who would be the most popular with the easily swayed and hard of thinking electorate.
And the killer blow was dealt by traditional labour voters choosing to facilitate a Conservative vision of a post EU UK
Which happened because they felt unable to trust Labour and their leadership. It's hardly the diners' fault if they go to a restaurant and the menu isn't too their taste. I can't even remember what the Labour punchline for this election was - the 2017 was 'Fpr the many not the few', the recent one, erm, wordy and forgettable. They should have been talking about fixing a broken country, one which the Tories broke, and had three or four punchy points. Probably the NHS, social services, education etc.
These are all traditional Labour strengths and things they should own, but they basically gave Johnson a free run at them by throwing out an unfocussed splurge of policies across the board.
New leader? I have no specific idea, but I'd ike to see someone who's actually under retirement age and not rooted in the 1970s - Corbyn is 70, McDonnell, 68 - and someone who has Jess Philips's authenticity and no BS clarity. Someone who's going to hold Johnson to account in plain Engish on the big points. Not necessarily Philips, but someone who has those qualities.
I like Keir Starmer as a forensic, calm, intelligent protagonist in Parliament, but I don't think he has wider appeal at a time when Labour needs to talk to its working class voters along with the urban middle classes. I don't think he's relatable. Blair had the opposite task no?
Finally, I think it's easy to be gloomy in the aftermath of the result, but does anyone really think that Johnson is going to successfully retain the support of northern, working class voters in the longer by delivering a Brexit that makes the country poorer and throwing token funding at infrastructure projects in the north of England. There are huge structural issues with our economy, the automation of jobs and the distribution of wealth in particular.
If you think that any Tory government is going to tackle those issues - along with climate change and the NHS - you haven't been listening for the last hundred years or so. It's a party bank-rolled by the super-rich establishment. Labour needs to be a credible alternative when reality starts to hit home, at the moment they're not.
And then there's the first past the post voting system.
Following Kerley's point - Based on popularity first - who do we think should be picked?
You'll have to go a long way down the list to find someone who doesn't have the stink of Corbyn on them.
Burgon was just on the news; what a vacuous drip of a man. Next!
#BackBurgon
Finally, I think it’s easy to be gloomy in the aftermath of the result, but does anyone really think that Johnson is going to successfully retain the support of northern
Johnson not so much. But unless Labour can get them back there’ll be a vacuum, which opens the door for something else. Either apathy or a new party.
And at the minute those voters aren’t looking particularly left wing.
The fact you don’t see an issue with David Lammy in the Brexiter/racist northern constituencies is evidence of this. Don’t think about who you would want as a decent leader, think who would be the most popular with the easily swayed and hard of thinking electorate.
So much wrong with this
Yet another post of the "you must be thick and racist" if you don't live in London type ( but you are alright if you are a SNP supporting Scot) on here
Thornberry quote "thick and stupid" about to kill her hopes
Lisa Nandy was just good on Marr. I think it has to be someone outside the inner leadership group after such a big defeat.
Lisa Nandy was just good on Marr. I think it has to be someone outside the inner leadership group after such a big defeat.
She will be fighting the NEC and conference more than the government, she wasn't loyal, she doesn't have the big name support
So much wrong with this
Yet another post of the “you must be thick and racist” if you don’t live in London type ( but you are alright if you are a SNP supporting Scot) on here
Thornberry quote “thick and stupid” about to kill her hopes
How else do you account for the correlation of swing with education?
Thinking it is one thing.
Calling them that directly and then subsequently begging for their vote shows a disconnect from reality
This is buried so deep in the PC version of the Guardian that only mobile readers are likely to find it so I'll provide a direct link.
Jess Phillips on Labour:
Jess Phillips on Labour:
The truth is, there is a clique who don’t care if our appeal has narrowed, as long as they have control of the institutions and ideas of the party.
If this isn’t changed, nothing will be.
The rest of the piece is spot on as well.
Yet another post of the “you must be thick and racist” if you don’t live in London type
Not at all. It is just understanding how people vote and what they base it on. Use objective facts and you will find;
The average voter is not intelligent
The average voter has a degree of racism
Take those facts and ensure that any leader is going tube accepted by them. The labour party probably don't have any MPs that fit the bill so would need to bring someone in who is already popular with the public but not sure if that can happen with Labour policy currently?
I’ll say it again. Corbyn made it easy for labour voters to vote conservative. Blair made it easy for conservative voters to vote (New) Labour.
If you do not appeal to the middle ground in FPTP voting, you are doomed to oblivion. I think it’s obvious. I have despaired at Labour since Miliband. I see little evidence of change. Maybe they think they weren’t left-wing enough?
It is just understanding how people vote and what they base it on.
Sadly Kerley is probably right. I’d love Lammy to be PM, but to put him forward would be to overestimate the voters of England I’m afraid. Same goes for any MP who is obviously Welsh, Scottish or from NI. Don’t give the English a reason not to vote Labour, before they’ve even heard what the new Leader has to say.
Blair is Scottish.
Thinking it is one thing.
Calling them that directly and then subsequently begging for their vote shows a disconnect from reality
Bit like "f*** business" ?
Lammy should probably be their next leader.
Lammy is a "funny tinge", to quote a former Labour MP who quit the party because it was too racist for her.
How about Dale Winton? Does it actually have to be a current MP ?
Blair is Scottish.
I used the word “obviously” for that obvious reason.
If you do not appeal to the middle ground in FPTP voting, you are doomed to oblivion. I think it’s obvious.
It's obvious that neither the conservatives nor Labour occupy the middle ground. It's obvious that most of the electorate picked one of them. It's obvious that the Lib Dems, occupying the middle ground, tanked. It's not obvious that occupying the middle ground is the route to electoral success.
It’s not obvious that occupying the middle ground is the route to electoral success.
It worked for Tony Blair.
Necessary and sufficient are not the same.
Corbyn busy claiming they won the argument today. Delusional or just stupid?
Suffice to say, he’s not ready to let go of his grip on Labour just yet, not until Corbyn mk2 is installed to replace him.
It worked for Tony Blair.
Why would you assume that what worked then works now?
Northwind
Subscriber
Starmer in brexitland would be a mistake, unless the wheels come off brexit faster than I expect. He’d be a terrible choice today and could be a fantastic choice in a few years.
I think this is fair comment. tbh, the leader labour need right now is just someone to steady the ship and bring the warring factions closer together, which will take time.
Basically, any leader right now, is probably just going to lay the ground work for the next leader.
Corbyn busy claiming they won the argument today. Delusional or just stupid?
Why can't it be both?
It’s not obvious that occupying the middle ground is the route to electoral success.
Middle ground? Johnson spent every week since he became leader going on and on about more police, more nurses, more hospitals… he even used Cummings’ favourite wining technique of lying about the numbers to get everyone talking about his promises as regards these key public services. That absolutely was about grabbing voters from the middle who want better public services, but aren’t interested in clause four style increased public ownership for anything beyond perhaps rail, road and health. Johnson didn’t keep popping up in Hospitals to sure up his core right wing support.
Middle ground? Johnson spent every week since he became leader going on and on about more police, more nurses, more hospitals… h
You think that people switched to the conservatives because they trust them to invest more in public services? Wow.
Johnson gave a simple message that he would invest in these areas that have fallen behind under previous Tory PMs. It wasn’t honest, but it absolutely was about pulling in voters who want improvements in these areas, and aren’t interested in, or don’t believe in, policies that include private companies giving the state 1% in shares each year for ten years, or renationalising anything beyond the railways and parts of the NHS.
Most of what Labour proposed nationalising I support. I am not the middle ground, not even close to it, despite the ire I get from people who think the UK wants the future that Seamous Milne, Andrew Murray and Len McClusky want. The public do not want that, and would rather vote for a lying buffoon leading a rabble of carpetbaggers than go down that route.
Johnson gave a simple message that he would invest in these areas that have fallen behind under previous Tory PMs.
His simple message was that he would deliver Brexit. That's what cut through above all else.
He repeated the lies promises about 40 hospitals etc every time he appeared. If you missed it, I’d be amazed.
You think that people switched to the conservatives because they trust them to invest more in public services?
Yes that was some of it but it was mainly because they trusted that the conservatives would get brexit done. These are the same people who cannot see what the tories have done for the last 40 years and think they would ever act in their interests.
He repeated the lies promises about 40 hospitals etc every time he appeared. If you missed it, I’d be amazed.
If you think that people voted for him because of that promise then you need to take more water with it.
Its about optics. You've got to look right and sound like you'll be a safe pair of hands. Too many variables to say centre ground is an election winner.
Labour did not appear to be a safe pair of hands - too many spending promises, & all the shit thrown at Corbyn stuck.
Labour must must must tackle their perceived weaknesses head on, like the Tories did with the NHS in this election.
You think that people switched to the conservatives because they trust them to invest more in public services? Wow.
No, I think people didn't vote Labour because the laundry list of spending was, in many people's eyes, way too much. They know all too well, i think that Johnson 's govt isn't going to be their best chance, but they do understand( rightly or wrongly) that Corbyn definitely wasn't.
Importantly, Johnson took on the NHS and Policing issues head on, repeatedly, from the moment he became Leader, all summer… Labour believed in the nonsense that they could do all their hard work during the election campaign proper, because of the swing they managed in 2017… that was a strategic failure that was obvious to everyone apart from… well… the blinkered. Corbyn was missing for so much of 2019, while Johnson milked his honeymoon and used it to associate himself with increased investment, spending and staffing in the public services that his predecessors damaged so badly (that so many people trust him on that is maddening, but there you go).
Edit: Ooops wrong thread
No, I think people didn’t vote Labour because the laundry list of spending was, in many people’s eyes, way too much.
I agree that their manifesto was a dog's breakfast, and that harmed their credibility. But a cursory review of the seats flipping to the Tories would strongly suggest that Brexit was the primary issue.
Johnson milked his honeymoon and used it to associate himself with increased investment, spending and staffing in the public services that his predecessors damaged so badly (that so many people trust him on that is maddening, but there you go).
Nah. The one thing everyone associates with him is "get Brexit done". It worked brilliantly.
The higher the Leave share, the greater the Tory gain, rising from a modest two-point swing in seats with a Leave vote below 45% to a whopping eight-point swing in seats where 60% or more voted Leave in 2016.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/15/britains-new-political-landscape
His simple message was that he would deliver Brexit. That’s what cut through above all else.
This ☝️