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All I did was point out that what Badenoch is being criticised for ( rightly) is also being done by labour. I do not think that unreasonable to point this out - its hypocritical
All I did was point out that what Badenoch is being criticised for ( rightly) is also being done by labour. I do not think that unreasonable.
Sorry TJ, I overreacted, you are right, and you made a fair point.
But it prompts the usual reaction and then you all double down and the thread goes "that way" when it really doesn't need to.
Anyway...
The idea that the Tories and Reform UK couldn’t form a coalition government is a strange one and I suspect probably based more on wishful thinking than reality.
Dunno, we're still a long way out form the next GE so it's maybe a bit early to be making sage predictions.
What Reform will be mindful of if a Tory coalition ever becomes an option is becoming the "Junior Partner" like the Lib-Dems did.
I think coalition might work for them if they find a few years of taking Musk's spare change coupled with slow growth/more austerity under Labour push more voters their way. Especially if Kemi keeps damaging the Tory brand and (somehow) isn't knifed in the back before she can lose an election, there's a reasonable chance that Reform become the bigger part on the right and either subsume the Conservatives or take the lead role in a coalition.
Like I said this is all fantasy league stuff right now, but I think it's worth acknowledging that Kemi has two fronts to do battle on she needs to become an effective opposition leader and she needs to shore up the right wing of her party and stop RUK eroding their base, so far she's pretty poor at both...
The obvious follow up question is who's going to be the first in her party to make a pitch for her job?
The obvious follow up question is who’s going to be the first in her party to make a pitch for her job?
There are council elections due in May so no-one is going to be making any sort of move before that. If Reform do well in local Government, a few more seats on local councils etc, I can see KB's position teetering on untenable but even the thickest Tories won't want to make any sort of play before the local elections.
She'll carry on for a few months, largely unchallenged and regularly making a fool of herself at PMQs.
Braverman in 2025 will be an interesting one. Very few friends in the Tories, husband has already joined Reform I believe? She's high profile and it'd cause quite a stir.
Four long years until a GE so fairly futile trying to predict that far ahead. Badenoch will survive 2025 as leader would be my guess, but she's so limited as a leader that it really is a question of when not if.
Lots of chat about Jenricks next tilt at it.....I wonder what Hunt is up to?
there’s a reasonable chance that Reform become the bigger part on the right and either subsume the Conservatives or take the lead role in a coalition.
Dunno about that. There will be a percentage of voters who will always vote Tory no matter what. I suspect that percentage is very close to the Tory vote at the last general election - 24%
Sure Reform UK could exceed that at the next general election but I would be very surprised if they ended up with more MPs than the Tories, I would expect the Tories to still have considerably more.
Reform UK support is spread thinly, there are no real Reform UK "heartlands" which thanks to first-past-the- post means that they are very significantly underrepresented in parliament.
In July's general election Reform UK received a larger share of the vote than the LibDems did and yet ended up with just 5 MPs to the LibDems 72. Obviously with every one percent increase the number of MPs escalates but I don't think that will be sufficient in the case of Reform UK
I would expect the Tories to still have considerably more.
Probably but I think it is up in the air.
Its the first real right wing alternative since the unionists (the 1900 ones not NI ones) and so there isnt an obvious parallel to draw. The tories have generally been good at reinvention but their ability to manoeuvre is limited. UKIP will always be able to outextreme them and, as TJAgain says, labour are following them rightwards rather than giving room to the left they can stay in.
There could be the critical mass when enough tories defect to them.
Reform are still a bit of a Farage personality cult, but he wont last forever, whether they have solidified enough of a base before his retirement (that said starmer at 62 actually 2 years older than frogface!) is what matters there.
Badenoch doesn't seem to be doing a great job of seeing reform off, if they do better by than the Tories at the locals in May it will be fireworks.
Are they a 'real' alternative though? The ease with which Nigel Farage seems to form new political parties suggests that they are not a lot more than a vehicle for his ego, which doesn't inspire confidence that his latest creation necessarily has a long-term future.
And I can't see much in the way of Tory defections to Reform UK. Sure there were a few before the general election but they seemed to have been mostly if not entirely from individuals who were going to be casualties in the inevitable Tory election meltdown anyway. None in the 6 months since the general election that I am aware of, nor am I aware of any rumours of any likely defections.
Considering the current Tory leadership I am not even sure that Reform UK can "outextreme" the Tories, what more extreme right-wing policies could Reform UK put to voters which the Tories would never entertain?
It is easy to conclude that Reform UK's appeal is based on them being more right-wing than the Tories but I am not sure it is that. I think that their main selling point, like Labour's pre-general election selling point, is that they aren't Tories.
As a consequence of their final years in power the Tories became thoroughly discredited in the eyes of the electorate. Labour in opposition thrived on that, ie "we are not Tories". It certainly attracted some very disillusioned former Tory voters. Now an uninspirational Labour government is which rapidly losing credibility is helping Reform UK to thrive, in the face of a yet-to-recover Tory Party.
Reform UK support is spread thinly, there are no real Reform UK “heartlands” which thanks to first-past-the- post means that they are very significantly underrepresented in parliament.
Thing is reform's appeal isn't just to Right leaning Tories and outright racists, they attract disaffected people across quite a spectrum, they'll borrow votes from anywhere including Labour.
2019 demonstrated that there's not really any such thing as the "red wall" any longer, Brexit demonstrated what can be done with some funding and a well targeted social media campaign...
If Nigel is now getting some funding from Space Karen, and some corresponding tweaks to Twitter, four years of sustained, targeted propaganda could well have a significant effect. I think we're well past the age of "unimaginable outcomes". Just because people have always voted a certain way doesn't mean that can't be nudged another, especially when you consider the subject of this thread, a leader who is already struggling to inspire her own party a few months after she was installed...
Dunno about that. There will be a percentage of voters who will always vote Tory no matter what. I suspect that percentage is very close to the Tory vote at the last general election – 24%
I would agree. I think low 20s % is about their base. IIRC they have been down to 15% in Scotland but despite massive unpopularity usually poll 20+ %
I think Reform will hit a wall of support at 25- 30% I don't think there are enough racists to get them above this and for the vast majority of the electorate they are foul and beyond the pale. I don't believe there is a pool of floating voters they can tap into. They are not going to take lib dem votes nor SNP. I think they have got all they can take from labour. while they might take and have taken dissafected labour voters in northern towns they are not going to take many in the scotland, london or labour votes in the south of England. they will and have taken tory votes in the south
I do wish both labour and tories would call Farage out tho rather than pandering to him and giving him credence
The Labour voters could be swayed to Reform (you know, those same ones that were swayed by Johnson). Farage will have enough funding to stand MPs and do a whole lot of social media stuff before the election that will get to those people with Starmer helping by not having done anything to improve their lives in the way they wanted.
not sure what this has to do with Badenoch but that says it all really, she won’t be relevant.
I do wish both labour and tories would call Farage out tho rather than pandering to him and giving him credence
Definitely this. There's a part of his 20% who vote for him out of emotions such as anger and frustration at existing parties because he isn't challenged and exposed. They could be swayed by, you know, actual facts. You don't have to chip away at that 20% too much under our flawed FPTP system to nullify him.
More cash i admire your faith in the great unwashed abilities to take notice of facts.
The whole "immigrants" stole my job, house, wage, kids future narrative provides them with something to blame.
The real problem is we have seen the transfer of assets, wealth and opportunity away from the working class on a monumental scale, this transfer is now impacting the middle class.
Your chances of progressing in the UK to a home and a good quality of life is now almost impossible for many young people, this will add to the Reform voters in a form of protest
If Labour fail and it's likely they will, Reform becoming the Kingmaker at the next election is highly likely.
The whole “immigrants” stole my job, house, wage, kids future narrative provides them with something to blame.
Which is a completely new narrative they have never heard before? Why are you ignoring all previous precedents by apparently claiming that 2029 will definitely be about immigrants stealing jobs, etc and that nothing can change that?
The NF, the BNP, UKIP, etc, have been blaming immigrants since the 1960s, what's their electoral success been like? Or maybe you think that Britain wasn't quite as racist in the 1960s as it is now?
The problem, which goes beyond UK borders, is that bourgeois democracy, a relatively new experiment less than 200 years old, has been found to be wanting - it simply doesn't appear to be delivering on people's expectations something which wasn't the case in the post war decades.
Western politics has lost its credibility in the eyes of many ordinary people, something not helped by neoliberalism being warmly embraced by the political elites. The consequence is that established political parties are paying the price as voters look for alternatives.
The political establishment, both Tory and Labour, came together to take on and smash Jeremy Corbyn when he threatened the status quo by offering a radical non-neoliberal alternative, with devastating success. There is no reason that they couldn't be as successful with taking on Nigel Farage.
And when I say 'threatened the status quo' Labour's radical manifesto secured them 4O% of the vote in the 2017 general election, far more than Labour got in the last general election and far more than Reform UK could ever dream of getting.
One of the central themes in undermining Jeremy Corbyn post 2017 was the almost daily accusations that he was allegedly a racist, do you not think a similar accusation could be levelled at Nigel Farage?
The reality is that the Tory and Labour political establishment are politically much closer to Nigel Farage than they are to Jeremy Corbyn, which is why Farage gets such an easy ride from them. But as suggested they could do a lot more to call him out.
The whole “immigrants” stole my job, house, wage, kids future narrative provides them with something to blame.
Labour should be shouting "brexit" tories" - they are the ones to blame
Are they a ‘real’ alternative though?
Yes and No.
No since I agree with your view of Farage and political parties.
Yes because apparently a lot of people dont and a handful of very wealthy people are dedicated to selling that viewpoint.
In terms of defections they are a few more rumoured so it depends if they happen and then it hits a tipping point. Who knows though?
I think that their main selling point, like Labour’s pre-general election selling point, is that they aren’t Tories.
No its that they are not tories OR Labour. Their entire claim is based around the two main parties being too similar and not serving the country in general.
Which at the risk of triggering Binners into a frothing incoherent rage works because its true. Where it falls down is going "and Farage will make it better" but the starting point is sound.
Which ultimately is the source of frustration with new new labour. Unless they step up fast then we are likely to end up with a horrendously right wing government either as a coalition or a majority (probably tory but one far more right wing than in the past).
Your regular reminder that 1 in 6 UK voters who exercised their right back in July voted Reform.
Oh no Ernie - you mentioned he who must not be named
Morning Ernie, never said it was new but if we want to talk why it's complicated by structural change in the workplace, decline of Unions and the proliferation of social media as a tool.
With all due respect to all on here the UK has no economic rabbits left in the hat other than a wealth tax to allow the country to function in a reasonable manner for all its people. There will be continuous decline in living standards for both working and middle class because no government is prepared to address the wealth tax issue. Look at the shit show with Farmers inheritance tax.
The inequalities that exist and are being supported by all governments is the root and taxing the shit out of the ordinary people will not fix it and if anything it makes them more vulnerable.
In short the transfer of assets to the super rich, the inability of a young person to buy a home, sky high rents and no matter how hard you work you don't make progress will continue to suck in more people and the middle class.
If Nigel is now getting some funding from Space Karen, and some corresponding tweaks to Twitter, four years of sustained, targeted propaganda could well have a significant effect.
this is going to be the biggest trouble, use the vote leave playbook, keep drip feeding the lives.
Your chances of progressing in the UK to a home and a good quality of life is now almost impossible for many young people, this will add to the Reform voters in a form of protest
it’s not really a protest vote after years of Tory if labour don’t deliver.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Farage joined the tories as it’s leader closer to election time.
They could be swayed by, you know, actual facts
> sigh <
keep drip feeding the lies
This. Who predicted in 2012 where we would be in 2016? Farage has already gained support that would have once seemed unlikely, and there are years ahead of us before another national vote, with plenty of people with money who understand that facts can be made ignorable by repeated big lies.
In short the transfer of assets to the super rich, the inability of a young person to buy a home, sky high rents and no matter how hard you work you don’t make progress will continue to suck in more people and the middle class.
Its not just the superrich. Its the property owning middle classes that benefit as well ( folk like me) Trouble is they will not vote to reduce their wealth
Many also consider themselves as being hard done by (not you) and of average means rather than well off. Understandable in a world with the likes of Musk in it, skewing the idea of what it is to be “rich”.
TJ it's all part of the same con... look at the reaction from the Farmers over Inheritance tax, 80% won't get touched by it the 20% including Dyson will shift the money. If the property owning middle class (which is me and my kids) think they will escape this decline you are badly mistaken.
If anyone has the time look up Gary's Economics on you tube. This individual talks about how the economy actually works, not a conspiracy freak by the way.
I’m nosing around Facebook looking at the pages that are targeting specific voters, lots of ‘reminiscing the past’ pages out there that started off with furrin sounding names (probably to get the following numbers up) then switched over.
Lots of pictures of miserable people in the ‘good old’ days, some people are actually just innocently commenting but you do get the expected ‘I’m not a racialist’, pretty sure these will be drip feeding and then gently over time more bots with reform backgrounds will be chipping in to show that plenty of people feel the same and only Reform will bring those wonderful days back.
The Labour voters could be swayed to Reform (you know, those same ones that were swayed by Johnson).
They already have, that's why* labours vote share was so poor and why Starmers chasing after them now. I dont think anyone's got an effective counter for Farage's/Trumps brand of populism. The current political class have lost the working class and that's a massive problem.
*one of the reasons
So bringing it back to this thread's topic, as she's not been discussed much during the last page or so (somewhat telling?), where does Kemi actually fit in all of this?
Does she have a role to play in shoring up and uniting the conservative party (if such a thing is possible)..?
Does her current trajectory just gift the 'Right axis' of UK politics to the Nige? Even if they're not destined for government RUK are now a defacto force in UK politics and both dismissing them and pandering to them seems to work in their favour.
Is there another vector for a Tory leader to adopt (not necessarily Badenoch)? The election winning theme since Boris seems to have been offering some vague idea of "change" which is always found out when the electorate don't feel much has really changed.
Personally I think they should leave her in post for another 18-24 months while they figure out who they really want to take them into the next GE, so there will be another Tory leadership struggle (yet more damage for the brand). The challenge will be limiting the damage Kemi can do during her remaining tenure...
Kemi clearly doesn’t do irony, does she? Nice that her advisors have handed her a bigger shovel so she can keep digging. Farage must be absolutely loving this! He’s clearly living rent free in her head
where does Kemi actually fit in all of this?
Bad Enoch is just the UK version of Marjorie Taylor Greene. Equally as thick but twice as dangerous.
As entertaining as it is watching her deluded piss poor 6th form debating at PMQs, our country deserves a more coherent opposition party. As a life long Tory party hater even I think it's not funny anymore.
To be fair to Badenoch (I’ll whip myself later) she’s not really picking fights, is she? Just pointing at Reform and calling them out… and perhaps being naive about the agenda of certain sections of the press and media… they have a new vehicle for their political and social aims in the UK, and for the first time in decades, it’s not the Tory party, and so they’re happy to ‘out’ any little chat she has with them if it’s likely to make Farage Inc look more like the new force in politics they pretend to be.
Oh, I like Beckham Jr’s joke.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you all.
It seems madness to me, given that and the possible need for future coalition allies, that Badanoch has decided to start a war with Farage, the only beneficieries of which are likely to be… *checks notes*…. everyone else other than the Tories.
Badenoch needs to demarcate a difference between Tories and Reform. If she doesn't, then you might as well vote Reform as Tory, and you reinforce the notion that Reform are kingmakers and a national threat to the Tories.
I think she's about to discover that you can't outcompete an extremist meme party on the fringes, and the Tories can't be a sensible centre right party when that's the position now occupied by Labour in power.
The election winning theme since Boris seems to have been offering some vague idea of “change” which is always found out when the electorate don’t feel much has really changed.
The logical one would be to offer some actual clear changes. Choose some of the policies which are seen as "labour" but generally poll well and nick them for implementation. That would haemorrhage financial support from the big backers but that seems out anyway.
If you look at reform alongside the standard culture wars they are nicking a few left wing policies.
A major problem for her is the rightwing media has gone full out on culture wars and so if she doesnt play along she has problems.
Looks like the knives may be out for her already. After being totally ineffectual against Starmer and Labour - who let’s be honest, have supplied her with an open goal - this latest nonsense with Farage has shown just how politically inept she is.
Tory MPs never wanted her in the first place, but she ended up as leader by accident after they messed up their maths. The clowns. So she’s starting for a low base anyway, but I don’t think anyone but her thinks that starting a war with Farage and now GB News is anything other than total stupidity
but I don’t think anyone but her thinks that starting a war with Farage and now GB News is anything other than total stupidity
It really isnt. Its risky but its necessary.
Remember she didnt start the fight. It was ukip announcing it had surpassed her numbers and then her trying a counter attack.
Currently the biggest threat to the tories is about who is the dominant hard right wing party. Win that fight and then its time to start lining up against labour.
As a life long Tory party hater even I think it’s not funny anymore.
I do. It effing hilarious and the least they all deserve. Vile the lot of them
Badenoch has allowed her party to be boxed into an ever smaller political space between the centre right labour and the hard right Reform. she has no way of broadening appeal at all.She has lost the "one nation" tories to labour and lib dems and the far right headbangers to reform. Doesn't leave her with much but her core suport
the parallels with labour and the SDP in the 80s are huge. the split in the right wing vote will keep the tories out of power ( hopefully)
Remember she didnt start the fight. It was ukip announcing it had surpassed her numbers and then her trying a counter attack
And she could have done the sensible thing and not risen to the obvious bait. Instead she went on the very public offensive because that’s just what she does, as Farage knows
So far all that has achieved is giving Farage an even bigger platform and allowed him to play the victim, increased Reforms membership even more and made that fact front page news, and also sent GB News and the Mail off on one about her being an enemy of free speech.
So that’s gone well then.
Ah leave her alone, she’ll keep labour in power for years.
It is interesting that this thread appears to be painting the Tories in some sort of electoral crisis which is unique to them. In reality with the next general election still 4 years away no party is currently facing an electoral crisis.
If this "crises" is based on the premise of what would happen if there was a general election tomorrow then the party leader who would be facing the greatest crisis is Keir Starmer, not Kemi Badenoch who would almost certainly end up becoming prime minister.
And if the supposed electoral crisis is based on more short-term considerations, eg next May's local elections, then again I would expect it to be firmly a Labour crisis. With the current unpopularity of their leader Labour will in all likelihood get slaughtered.
Something which will be amplified by the fact that Labour did well in previous local elections when there was an unpopular Tory government l.
If the current situation in terms of popular support for political parties was to remain unchanged for the next 4 years that would in fact be extremely good news for Kemi Badenoch and she should pray that it doesn't change, because it would guarantee that as long as she remains leader she will become prime minister.
Obviously that would require that Badenoch either forms a formal coalition with Reform UK or that she strikes a deal with them to guarantee support in the event of critical votes.
That clearly would not be ideal but it would be a very small price to pay to enter government only one electoral cycle after a devastating landslide defeat. I don't think it has ever happened in UK that the opposition has won a general election just 5 years after a landslide defeat, it has always taken at least 10 years. So she would have every reason to be very chuffed.
@tjagain - this isn't crappy Tories during New Labour, these are dangerous times with Bad Enoch's crowd not being a credible opposition to keep the Govt in check. They are enabling and facilitating further emboldening of the far right, that narrative affects everyone in time.
So yes they've imploded which funny but the current result is highly polarised politics with a very nasty racist element.
If Johnson, Sunak, Cummings and all the snout-in-troughers were being investigated and punished it would be more interesting but all I see is division and hate, so even though they're not in power they are winning as that is what they want to happen.
all the snout-in-troughers were being investigated and punished it would be more interesting
Some recent announcements:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/tom-hayhoe-appointed-as-covid-counter-fraud-commissioner
Focus is on “recovering funds”, to make it sound less political, but you can’t do that without naming names…