50p per unit announced in Scotland, proposed to “Save Lives”. So, will it actually do so by making cheap booze unavailable to the unwashed and unfortunate, or start to create a post prohibition black market for cheap booze?
There’s plenty of evidence for any “desirable” object to degenerate into black market conditions promoting crime and illegality where the law restricts it, particularly in a poor social environment.
Thoughts?
it will only affect a few very strong nasty chemical brews. that won't be enough to drive a black market. I think it will make a significant difference. No longer will you be able to buy cheap rotgut "cider" at £1 for 2 litres. It won't make the slightest difference to most of us. Nothing I drink is below the minimum price
I've stocked up on festival multi-can packs of Carlsberg/Carling/Fosters/ Strongbow before the prices went up but generally it won't affect me either as I tend to have a few bottles of nice ale to do me the week which are well above the minimum.
I’m not sure this alone will work, but you’ve gotta start somewhere.
As someone who smoked through Uni and for a good few years after, the constantly increasing price was never really a factor in making me stop. I’m pretty sure that banning smoking in pubs and restaurants etc had a huge effect, as that really drives a change in behaviour.
Thus, upping the price on booze will start to raise awareness, cause at least a few questions before a purchase, but I kinda hope its a step in a plan change behaviour around getting smashed. It won’t work on its own. See also sugar-tax.
Thoughts?
We'll need to wait and see like with any other public health intervention. A step in the right direction though I think.
"Thoughts?"
The supermarket profits in Carlisle will be sky high.
There's a sunset clause in the legislation which means it'll revert in 6 years unless MSPs vote to renew it based on the evidence.
The cheapest spirits will "leap" from around £12 per bottle to around £14. I can't see that difference being enough to sustain a black market.
The cheapest ciders rise from around £4 per bottle to around £12. That's a bigger difference but no one buying that stuff is doing so in large quantities and how much would you need to import from England to make it worthwhile?
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/991185238482149376?s=19
nice stereotypical pic from sky.
I always wear my kilt when pop down to the park for a swally
The cheapest ciders rise from around £4 per bottle to around £12. That’s a bigger difference but no one buying that stuff is doing so in large quantities
Some will drink around 3 Bottles a day of that horrible stuff to get through their addiction.
There is already a thriving black market for cheap and nasty counterfeit booze, just like there is for cigarettes. The minimum pricing is worth a try, if nothing else it's another message to people that as a country our attitude to alcohol is warped and needs addressing.
I ****ing hate all this government intervention shit. A can of coke cost me a quid the other day in Greggs, why, sugar tax bolkox, people will carry on doing what they were doing but as usual Mr normal is the one who pays the prce.
Aye, but when Mr Normal gets ill he expects the NHS to make him better. Cut out smoking, reduce alcohol and obesity and you've hit the 3 major causes of the NHS being under such financial pressure.
Alcohol was expensive when I was a lad (relative to our wages), and it seems much cheaper now.
Kids rarely had enough money to get drunk whereas it seems to be a common thing for quite young kids to get blitzed these days.
If it reduces the instances of that, good. However I think it's sticking plaster legislation, although well intentioned.
I hope it works.
The university study showed that over time there are positive effects, including many saved lives. It's not designed to save rampant alcoholics like Dracs example, but as Spin rightly says, we have to start somewhere.
Edit - and what Scotroutes says x 100
Quite. If this affects you then you are probably one of then people the legislation is aimed at!
Whilst I'm not disputing the health benefits of not smoking, drinking less and losing weight, the NHS is at breaking point because of years of the Tory 'Austerity' project and subsequent underfunding. Plain and simple. Underfund it, declare a crisis, privatise it. That's their agenda, swathes of it have already been flogged to Virgin.
Edit- more importantly, how do we stop drunken Scots from boozing it up on the cheap in the rest of the UK? Perhaps this legislation doesn't go far enough?
Edit- more importantly, how do we stop drunken Scots from boozing it up on the cheap in the rest of the UK? Perhaps this legislation doesn’t go far enough?
I'd never considered booze cruises from Scotland. Border patrols on Hadrians wall?
I’d never considered booze cruises from Scotland. Border patrols on Hadrians wall?
Errrrr!
Border patrols on Hadrians wall?
Yet more southern ignorance, bless....
swathes of it have already been flogged to Virgin.
OK while I work in the health industry, and Tbh some of the private health care companies are pretty bad (as are some Trusts CCGs, and GPS) that up there is bolloxs
Your bottle of Peroni will go up in price, as will all the premium brands (wine/ales/lager) - they need to keep their price differencial between the cheap stuff and the expensive stuff!
when this was first mooted by Salmond, in Mar 09, I put this together
6 yrs ago the rate of 40p was being suggested.
http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/minimum-alcohol-pricing-and-units/page/2/
I need to have another go at it to see whether duty and inflation increases have naturally brought more products above the min pricing line
I was paying 5.50/pint for Peroni last night in Notts arena. It really really doesn't want to get anymore expensive 😢
Border patrols on Hadrians wall?
I'm sure those north of the wall would like to be scottish 🙂
There’s plenty of evidence for any “desirable” object to degenerate into black market conditions promoting crime and illegality where the law restricts it, particularly in a poor social environment.
Kinda agree, but then alcohol is easy to make so why not.
But it does kinda plaster over the cracks, across the borders you’ll still be able to stock up on cheap alcohol which makes a mockery of the law.
But then it is Scotland and they proclaim to be different, so let’s sit back and watch this social experiment falter or barely make any difference.
I live in place where cheap alcohol is a similar price to fruit juice and consumption is falling. The quality of what's drunk is also rising. Average consumption in France is now about the same at the UK but was three times higher in my youth.
If you look at the places alcohol consumption is rising they are also the places where it's expensive. Look at the places its cheap and consumption is stagnant or falling. If I were a UK brewer I'd be lobbying for higher alcohol prices because people will find the money for what they see as an expensive desirable premium product. It's not the price that's the problem, it's the attitude to drink.
Check out the OECD stats. It's Scandinavia where prices are punitive and the UK where prices are high that consumption is rising fastest.
But then it is Scotland and they proclaim to be different, so let’s sit back and watch this social experiment falter or barely make any difference.
What, like we did with the smoking ban?....
What, like we did with the smoking ban?….
Smuggling pubs over the border was a bit tricky.
Bodgy, the really big problems the nhs faces have long predated the Tory government. NHS Scotland is a devolved body, with apparently better funding per capita than NHS England because the Scottish Government chose to invest there - if still faces the big issues listed (and an aging population). The putative privitisation agenda with the involvement of Virgin does not apply in Scotland. Other than that yip it’s all their fault.
True Drac!
Check out the OECD stats. It’s Scandinavia where prices are punitive and the UK where prices are high that consumption is rising fastest.
Correlation does not equal causation.
You’d think the drinks industry would see it as a positive but the biggest opponent we’re the Scottish Whisky Producers (most probably because their distilleries also make the industrial alcohol that goes into making “white” ciders - that sell for less than Coca Cola). Although it is not a tax - so they should make more unless the policy is effective. Their very vocal opposition tells me they believe it will significantly reduce volume not just displace it to Cumbria or let them charge more for the same volume.
A can of coke cost me a quid the other day in Greggs, why, sugar tax bolkox,
Was Diet Coke significantly cheaper, then?
most probably because their distilleries also make the industrial alcohol that goes into making “white” ciders
Not 'most probably' at all, it's their sole reason for all their whining.
But it does kinda plaster over the cracks, across the borders you’ll still be able to stock up on cheap alcohol which makes a mockery of the law.
The geography is such that the vast majority of Scots live >2h drive from the border. Many of those “most affected” by the change won’t have a car, or won’t have the spare cash for fuel and bulk purchases. The economics won’t make it worthwhile for those marginally affected if the live North of Dumfries.
There could be an “opportunity” for white van man to load up with cheap cider and flog it illicitly, but it’s a lot of work for little gain - anyone who doesn’t care too much about the law could easily make more selling drugs.
Alcohol was expensive when I was a lad (relative to our wages), and it seems much cheaper now.
Not in my experience. When I was 18 I was earning £5 an hour and a pint was not much more than £1
Nowadays the minimum wage is £7-ish and a pint is £4+
The kids don't drink nowadays because they can't afford to
Not ‘most probably’ at all, it’s their sole reason for all their whining.
I was giving them them the benefit of the doubt that they were unhappy about the price of Aldi Grain Whisky going up by about a quid too! Or maybe the point about it pushing up premium brands to differentiate would have an effect on the mainstream.
eitherway I’ve no great sympathy for an industry who object to a policy because they expect it to work and save lives.
Nowadays the minimum wage is £7-ish and a pint is £4+
erm...I don't think it's pub prices which are the issue here...Quick look at Tesco online and the first item in the beer and cider section is https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/300256958 - 18 cans of strongbow for £10....
I was paying 5.50/pint for Peroni last night in Notts arena. It really really doesn’t want to get anymore expensive
no sympathy for someone paying £5.50 for a pint or for drinking peroni.
Not in my experience. When I was 18 I was earning £5 an hour and a pint was not much more than £1
Nowadays the minimum wage is £7-ish and a pint is £4+
How much was minimum wage when you were 18?
You can but alcohol for less than £4 a pint in many pubs let alone supermarkets.
Not in my experience. When I was 18 I was earning £5 an hour and a pint was not much more than £1Nowadays the minimum wage is £7-ish and a pint is £4+
That's not really a fair comparison, when a pint was a quid a whip, (was £1.38 in my local when I started drinking, circa 1995/6ish, last I seen a £1 a pint was probably some promotion around 1999 in a pub in the town.) there wasn't even a minimum wage. Would have been lots of people on much less that £5 an hour, particularly at 18 yo.
I think I started on about £3.50 an hour back then.
As an 18 year old in 1993, we were usually a fiver for 10 beers, cheap shite like Miller etc, pretty much hasn't gone up in price from this in supermarkets.
hmmm, dunno about that.tjagainit will only affect a few very strong nasty chemical brews. that won’t be enough to drive a black market.
so a van load of tennents say:
5 cases wide, 7 cases long, and 8 cases high. (**** knows pure guessing!)
= 280 cases.
£14 a whip south of the border.
£23 up here, so punt them at £19.
5 x 280 = £1400 minus petrol.
no a bad wee earner!
bikebouy said,
"But then it is Scotland and they proclaim to be different, so let’s sit back and watch this social experiment falter or barely make any difference."
Pretty much word for word what people said about the smoking ban, and about carrier bag charging... The BMJ says "price-based alcohol policy interventions such as MUP are likely to reduce alcohol consumption, alcohol-related morbidity and mortality" which sounds like a good start
So what will happen if you get the train from Edinburgh to London, will the drink have 2 prices, pre and post border?