dangerousbeans
So what did Starmer do on Friday to spook these men who rule the financial world?
And why are they all seeming to say it’s in response to Tory direction not Labour’s conference?
The fiscal statement has been so widely mischaracterised that I suspect several voters genuinely now believe that the Tories are trying to boost the economy by making the rich better off.
What the sterling sell-off may have reflected – and what those Deutsche Bank analysts may clumsily have been suggesting – is the belief that this budget has made a Labour victory more likely.
Eta
I can't keep posting this drivel, however this 👆 is what Daniel Hannan apparently believes. See:
https://conservativehome.com/2022/09/28/daniel-hannan-no-the-pound-isnt-crashing-because-of-a-trifling-batch-of-tax-cuts/
Christ I’m not saying I’m going to vote Tory because labour went to war.
I’m not going to vote Tory, full stop
I am worried about labours capability to do any better
I am also worried about a war.
I want a party that I have confidence in to sort out domestic affairs, and a party that will not go to war against putin.
the markets were spooked, because Krazy coked up Kwasi thought that not publishing OBR's take was some kind of master stroke in reality they have just assumed correctly the worse.
LOL at tory boys appeal to Authority fallacy of Conservative Home
Politics doesn't happen in a vacuum. It responds to what's gone before. It'll be a while before a government goes off to a foreign war precisely because of what happened to Blair after Iraq.
Markets got spooked re sterling because they were shown that the country's being badly run right now and according to many economists and the former chancellor the exact opposite of what's needed.
Page 1
Only government spending will boost growth.
When you (not just the poster) say growth please explain how you measure that and why that measure means anything to a country with a negative trade deficit.
Klunk
Free Member
LOL at tory boys appeal to Authority fallacy of Conservative Home
Multi21
Free Member
I can’t keep posting this drivel, however this 👆 is what Daniel Hannan apparently believes. See:
Just to be clear I think it's batshit crazy.
Treating the OBR report like the Russia Report or the Sue Gray Report has probably shown them that they should save their can-kicking and fact-hiding for Parliament, not the financial markets.
Nothing screams 'I've been told this is a shit idea, but I'm doing it anyway, and I think we've had enough of experts' quite like this. And makes institutions wonder - in the middle of two pre-existing crises - what the **** is coming next.
and yes the wars (plural Blair took us to war more times than any other leader) plays heavy on my mind when I see Russians being conscripted against their will and what is going on in ukraine. I worry that could be us.
You worry that Starmer would start conscripting us? Seriously, take more water with it.
The pound isn’t crashing over a trifling batch of tax cuts. It’s because the markets are terrified of Starmer.
I think this is batshit crazy.
I think this is batshit crazy.
Just the usual Tory narrative that absolutely everything is Labour's fault. That they've not been in government for 12 years is irrelevant.
The fiscal statement has been so widely mischaracterised that I suspect several voters genuinely now believe that the Tories are trying to boost the economy by making the rich better off.
More accurately
The fiscal statement has been so widely seen that I suspect Tory voters genuinely now believe that the Tories are trying to boost the economy.
On the other hand the financial markets just see it for what it is.. I way to transfer money from the poor to the super rich.
To listen to the BBC or the Labour Party, you’d think that the fall in the pound was caused, not by the £60 billion energy price freeze, nor yet by the £400 billion dropped on the lockdowns, but by the £2 billion which will supposedly be lost in removing the highest tax rate.
You don't need to listen to either ...
First question really is why would Truss or Kwarteng care about the UK economy?
What does it matter to them personally? They will have informed the investors in advance or the media and the media in advance of parliament and made sure they personally made enough money out of this and that their beneficiaries made even more.
In a single "not a budget" they transferred the future earnings of most of the country to their mates and personal offshore accounts.
Klunk
I think this is batshit crazy.
So do I, it's a quote (as was everything I posted) from the article written by Hannan which I linked.
What would you expect from Hannan of the ERG? Blimey it's extremely unlikely that Labour would propose anything that might upset international capitalism.
@multi21
You might want to make it clearer that you don't agree with something when you post like that. Looked very much like you were advocating the utter shite from Hannan
@multi21 thank goodness, I was about to call your carers and have you sedated
Aint the post-truth world just wonderful
t
spawnofyorkshire
Full Member@multi21
You might want to make it clearer that you don’t agree with something when you post like that. Looked very much like you were advocating the utter shite from Hannan
Apparently it was too subtle, I thought some people might have clocked it after the "fly alighting on an exhausted shire horse" quote 😀
What the sterling sell-off may have reflected – and what those Deutsche Bank analysts may clumsily have been suggesting – is the belief that this budget has made a Labour victory more likely.
Wow! Have you been eating the mushrooms that are now sprouting across this fair isle? I don't even know where to start with this fantasy analysis. I have no doubt this budget has made a labour govt more likely, but it's almost certain that the markets would calm down if Starmer and Reeves were installed tomorrow. What the markets are scared of is not tax cuts, but a Prime Minister and Chancellor who are willing to make reckless bets with the entire UK economy as an expression of faith in their outdated bankrupt ideology.
It's all very well wanting to switch to a low tax, small state economy, but that can't be done overnight, because the UK doesn't have the financial power to ride out the storms in currency and debt markets.
What the markets are scared of is not tax cuts, but a Prime Minister and Chancellor who are willing to make reckless bets with the entire UK economy as an expression of faith in their outdated bankrupt ideology.
Why would you think "the market's" are scared?
This is a huge opportunity for them ... from "the market's" perspective this is just betting on the pound falling or crashing against other currencies.
There is no point seeing this as personal .. it's just a way to make betting against the UK as profitable as possible.
I don't think it's much of a bet... I'm sure Truss knew exactly what would happen having been advised by the markets and has moved her own assets accordingly.
As Steve says "the markets" don't give a monkey's what the future holds, so long as they can make money in it when we get there and on the betting on it in the mean time.
This is a huge opportunity for them … from “the market’s” perspective this is just betting on the pound falling or crashing against other currencies.
Some (Kwasi's mates and former employer) think like that, but others are simply wisely dumping British investments because they expect their value to decline. To characterise it as being 'scared' is wrong, I agree, that would suggest irrational decisions.
stevextc
Free MemberWhy would you think “the market’s” are scared?.
This all happened because of remainers actually.
eta:
He said: “My love is grouse shooting. And we are in the middle of [the season] right now.
“The truth is that I didn’t do anything on Friday. I shot.
Is there a better candidate to be shot out of a clown cannon into the sea than this turd?
I am also worried about a war.
I want a party that I have confidence in to sort out domestic affairs, and a party that will not go to war against putin.
You genuinely believe voting in the Labour Party may lead to war with Russia? What are you smoking?
seems the markets (currency) have got wind of something :/ or a glitch ?/
LOL at tory boys appeal to Authority fallacy of Conservative Home
Further LOLing at the thought that anyone takes the opinions of Daniel 'absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market ' Hannan with anything other than absolute contempt.
I don’t see anyone in the Labour Party I believe who can lead us out of this
To be fair, I don't trust Labour that much either, but the Tories have consistently proven over the past 12 years that they certainly can't lead us out of this, that or the other. I'm not sure there is anyone in Westminster I would trust to get us out of anything right now.
And here comes the QE..
Someone remind me again that the magic money tree is not a thing. 😀
Fire up those printing presses!!!
Never mind dollar parity, we’ll have parity with the Somalian Shilling by next week
I know it's been mentioned but I'd missed this nugget, I assume The chancellor is just on a sabbatical and will return to the day job in a week or two.
"Kwasi Kwarteng worked at Odey Asset Management, the firm Odey founded, before becoming an MP. The value of the company’s flagship European hedge fund is up about 145 per cent this year"
Countdown to a Kyiv Fur Hat Photo-Op for our gallant PM? Apparently even her own spin doctor can't get hold of her.
onehundredthidiot
Full MemberI know it’s been mentioned but I’d missed this nugget, I assume The chancellor is just on a sabbatical and will return to the day job in a week or two.
“Kwasi Kwarteng worked at Odey Asset Management, the firm Odey founded, before becoming an MP. The value of the company’s flagship European hedge fund is up about 145 per cent this year”
Yeah now read the article I linked from Odey earlier blaming this on remainers. Complete twunt.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/27/remainers-blame-run-pound-claims-hedge-fund-tycoon-crispin-odey/
I'm going to have to step away from the news.
He sells sterling short to make money but.
Odey described his bets against gilts as “the gifts that keep on giving” but blamed the rout of the pound on“Remainers” who “hate the government”.
Sorry I missed this at the time but, did they sack the head of the Treasury to get this budget through because he wouldn't sign off on it???
Yup. And they wonder why the markets are slightly suspicious of their competence.
and yes the wars (plural Blair took us to war more times than any other leader) plays heavy on my mind when I see Russians being conscripted against their will and what is going on in ukraine. I worry that could be us.
You know that Putin lead his own people to war and they have always had a large standing army with conscription.
You seem to think that Keir Starmer is just twitching to get into power, so he can lead us on a glorious campaign against fascist Russia! Is that how you are justifying carrying on with this shit show of a government?
Sorry I missed this at the time but, did they sack the head of the Treasury to get this budget through because he wouldn’t sign off on it???
He wouldn't be the person to sign it off, the role is advisory and to implement policies. They tore up convention by sacking him because he didn't fit their fiscal ideology.
So what's worse: incompetence or criminal conspiracy? And which is it? Bit of both? Christ, what the **** is going on?
martinhutch
Some (Kwasi’s mates and former employer) think like that, but others are simply wisely dumping British investments because they expect their value to decline. To characterise it as being ‘scared’ is wrong, I agree, that would suggest irrational decisions.
The only real exceptions to dumping must fund managers who are specifically looking after UK based portfolio's.
I think the main differences are those who were given a heads-up vs those who weren't... from a personal financial perspective it's unlikely any of them will lose more (e.g. mortgage) than they gain (e.g. bonus) they would have to be completely incompetent.
The same applies to Kwasi and Truss .. if you get over the idea they give a shit what happens to either the economy or people or being re-elected vs their personal financial wealth OR you have to believe they really are so thick/bat-shit crazy to not only totally ignore what any independent expert would have told them but to then pour petrol on the fire through their lack of response or explanations.
(It's not even like Sunak didn't make it clear... )
I think in Truss's case it must have quickly become clear (even if she didn't know already) she wasn't going to be on a PM's salary for long.
She must have known that even in the leadership contest not that the PM's salary is really that significant compared to what she can get out of selling off the UK economy rather than a slow asset strip ??
pound on the way down again! :/ so much for calming the markets
I, for a change, am actually looking forward to the Conservative conference. Could be...interesting...
Meanwhile:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/26/britain-europe-weak-economy/
…and this is after the BoD emergency bond buying scheme has announced. I guess the word “emergency” has spooked everyone even more.
Love the Biden quote which is basically “FFS get your shit together”.
I have an increasing feeling we arnt seeing Truss again, and that she’s on indefinite sick leave with a deputy PM in place until ‘24.
thestabiliser
So what’s worse: incompetence or criminal conspiracy? And which is it? Bit of both? Christ, what the **** is going on?
The only real conspiracy as such is with misleading the Conservative party members in the leadership campaign.
The rest of it is just what anyone with no morals or beliefs if they are not competent enough to milk the system longer term would do given the chance.
For all his faults, Boris was in for the long term asset strip of the UK and he carried this with his charisma and ability to bare faced lie... Truss has all the charisma of a wet fish and was never going to last, she just promised the Tory membership (the only people mattered to make her PM) what they wanted to hear then set about lining her pockets and favours as quickly as possible.
and yes the wars (plural Blair took us to war more times than any other leader) plays heavy on my mind when I see Russians being conscripted against their will and what is going on in ukraine. I worry that could be us.
Isn't conscription (in the guise of National Service) more of an idea beloved by the right wing than the left?
You seem to think that Keir Starmer is just twitching to get into power, so he can lead us on a glorious campaign against fascist Russia! Is that how you are justifying carrying on with this shit show of a government?
****ing hell. Are you reading what I have written?
IN NO WAY DO I WANT THE TORIES TO REMAIN IN GOVERNMENT
KIER STARMER AND THE LABOUR PARTY HAVE NOT CONVINCED ME THEY ARE CAPABLE
YES I AM SHITTING MYSELF ABOUT WAR probably more than the economy
that clearer?
