Jeremy Corbyn

he will be on the ballot as long as he wants to be.

I have no idea what that means.

Well I kind of think it is a relatively remote contingency and not sufficient to take into account but worth noting as an assumption.

Nah, they should probably do a poll of crims in the hood they can count on in a rumble. It's the modern way.

t would consign hard left politics to the dustbin for decades.

that's why I was so keen for Corbyn to have a crack at being leader as I thought it would consign hard left politics to the dustbin for decades.

Since when is Corbyn hard left?

It's funny how not bombing people is "hard left politics" when it's from the Labour Party but not when it's from the SNP.

Isn't it? But as for supporting dictators and terrorists, thats an odd comment what with other party leaders doing deals in deserts, fawning over Pinochet and backing the 'less bad' side in former wars that lead us to where we are today. Al-Megrahi may or may not have committed the crime but it's fair to say that Pinochet, Hussein, and Gadaffi killed many times more people under their watches but still got a free break to do as they pleased so long as their money came our way.

Since when is Corbyn hard left?

Well, quite. His politics are entirely mainstream from a German or Scandinavian perspective.

Zulu 11 took a sip from his Oswold Mosely commerative mug and farted out "Well, we already know their attitude to fascists and terrorists:"

Yup, they don't support the motion to bomb Syria.Would that be the same SNP that are so cosy with Trump that they allowed the building of a windfarm offshore despite Trump trying to force them to stop,or a different SNP?
Oh; and Desmond Tutu and Nelson Mandela both endorsed the release,I will take that over Donald Trump any day.

he will be on the ballot as long as he wants to be.

I have no idea what that means.

It is based on [url= http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2015/11/could-labours-rule-book-be-used-keep-jeremy-corbyn-leadership-ballot ]this analysis of the Labour leadership election rules[/url] which seems pretty sound.

It's not that remote. John Smith died suddenly in (party) office and Tony Blair was elected (party) leader.

John Smith had a history of heart disease, but I suggest we leave it at that as frankly the whole discussion could become rather ghoulish.

How do John Smith's politics compare to Corbyn? I was a bit young to be paying attention back then.

Well, quite. His politics are entirely mainstream from a German or Scandinavian perspective.

Today's result in Oldham could prove pivotal as to Corbyns future, its unlilley UKIP will win but if they do following so quickly after yesterdays defeat could be the beginning of the end for Corbyn

Really ?? Corbyn is to the left of Hollande who is Europe's most left leaning leader. Corbyn is far to tye left of Merkel.

Yes, that will be why France & Germany have a long-hours culture, poor pensions, low benefits, low taxation and privatised state infrastructure.

Oh.

It is based on this analysis of the Labour leadership election rules which seems pretty sound.

I still don't understand what you mean by "he will be on the ballot as long as he wants to be".

What "ballot"?

What "ballot"?

The hypothetical one that would result from the PLP trying to unseat him as leader.

Well I have never doubted that it wouldn't be easy for the Blairite right-wing to remove Corbyn. My point, which you appear to be ignoring, is that should anything happen to Corbyn control of the Labour Party would immediately and irreversibly revert back into the hands of the right-wing. It is they who would dictate who was on the ballot paper for the next leader - there have been no rule changes.

All of which doesn't sit very comfortably with your claim that "The Left has control at pretty much every level".

is that should anything happen to Corbyn control of the Labour Party

You mean ......

Yeah you need to read back to yesterday's posts Alex to understand what I mean.

"The Left has control at pretty much every level"

Except the average age of Corbyn, Livingston, Abbot and McDonnell is over 60 now, let alone the next GC.

If Labour want to get anywhere they need some younger people from outside London with ideas, not old folk in their London commie luvvie bubble.

should anything happen to Corbyn

Remember what happened to the last few men with beards who tried to stop us going to war:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robin_Cook
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Kelly_(weapons_expert)

Makes you think eh 😉

Yes, that will be why France & Germany have a long-hours culture, poor pensions, low benefits, low taxation and privatised state infrastructure.

Oh.

Erm - 30% of employees in East Germany were earning less than the minimum wage in 2014. 36% of all germans working in hospitality earned less than the minimum wage, and 44% pf germans working in Agriculture. The minimum wage there is €8.50 an hour.

I guess these people will marvel at the utopia in which they apparently live.

Oh.

ok - I understand now. I see that point. The left are not in control of the PLP and the PLP decide the nominations for leader in the event of a vacancy.
I agree.

Erm - 30% of employees in East Germany were earning less than the minimum wage in 2014. 36% of all germans working in hospitality earned less than the minimum wage, and 44% pf germans working in Agriculture. The minimum wage there is €8.50 an hour.

I guess these people will marvel at the utopia in which they apparently live.

Oh.

So you're telling us that the former GDR is relatively poor? Do you have any other startling revelations you'd care to share with us?

I know people are praising JC for having principles and allowing a free vote, but surely if you feel so badly against something (and I presume he does because of the Stop The War involvement) that when you're now the leader of the opposition you must think this is your real chance to make a positive stand?

when you're now the leader of the opposition you must think this is your real chance to make a positive stand?

Well I can't recall such an intense debate and interest with regards to whether or not to bomb since the prelude to the Iraq War. Certainly there wasn't quite the same level of interest and debate concerning the previous votes on bombing Syria or Libya.

So it would appear the Corbyn's leadership has indeed affected the level of debate and interest.

Intimately the powers he has to force Labour MPs vote according to his instructions are limited. I think the fact that the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs backed his position reflects well on him.

Specially when you consider Labour's shameful recent past record of rushing hastily into war.

My point, which you appear to be ignoring, is that should anything happen to Corbyn control of the Labour Party would immediately and irreversibly revert back into the hands of the right-wing.

I haven't ignored it I agreed with it as follows:

But your analysis is right, you need him to stay on unto the election when with boundary changes etc you should have enough Mps to get a left winger on the ballot.

Well if we both agree then I have absolutely no idea what we're arguing about.

If you have any pointers I would be grateful.

Well I can't recall such an intense debate and interest with regards to whether or not to bomb since the prelude to the Iraq War. Certainly there wasn't quite the same level of interest and debate concerning the previous votes on bombing Syria or Libya.

I do like your answer ernie. Thank you.

Do you think the debate has been so intense/interested only because the press feel the sharks are circling JC

Well if we both agree then I have absolutely no idea what we're arguing about.

I think we are disagreeing about what we are not arguing about - is that helpful?

Well it's clear that Corbyn's enemies have used the issue to attack him with. It's also clear that Corbyn has used the opportunity to offer an alternative to the usual knee-jerk "let's bomb a foreign country" response, with some success - although obviously not complete success.

I think we are disagreeing about what we are not arguing about - is that helpful?

Not particularly. I really need something more specific.

Well it's clear that Corbyn's enemies have used the issue to attack him with.

[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hilary-benn-shadow-foreign-secretary-says-labour-wont-back-air-strikes-on-syria-a6734651.html ]As if any further evidence were needed....[/url]

According to the Daily Telegraph as a result of the "rapturous applause" Hilary Benn received from Tory MPs he is now tipped to be the next leader of the Labour Party.

Sounds about right - all he needs now is Rupert Murdoch's blessing.

One key difference is that in Iraq we received a request from the government. In Syria the Russians received the same from the government, the other countries have not so its more complex

I'm hoping that this is all part of an elaborate plan.
Jeremy and Hillary have conspired to make a leader who is accepted by all sides and wins GE in 2020. Then implements his fathers policies.

Genius!

Interesting that a bloke can be simultaneously so right and yet so wrong - fine as a backbencher, but not so good as a leader of the opposition.

We need effective opposition and that starts at the top - sadly missing right now

Odd as normally you have such good words to say about the opposition be it labour of the SNP.
I wonder what this "left wing firebrand" has done to upset you?

I still thinks its reasonable to criticise him but its pretty pointless discussing it with those who will criticise him irrespective of policy decision

THM was a big fan of Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown, he feels badly let down by Jeremy Corbyn.

I wouldn't be surprised if THM was so disappointed that he ends up abandoning Labour and voting Tory instead.

Unsurprisingly, Ernie, wrong again. Never mind.

FWIW, I am with the leader of the opposition on not bombing Syria.

Unsurprisingly, Ernie, wrong again. Never mind.

You mean that you've never been a supporter of any Labour leader and have always voted Tory???

I can't believe I got that wrong!!!

I can - its a well-documented habit

Great news and I am sure he is delighted to know he* still has your support.

* Corbyn that is not ernie.

If Labour want to get anywhere they need some younger people from outside London with ideas, not old folk in their London commie luvvie bubble.

Early polling suggests Labour pretty close to GE % of vote in Oldham by-election. UKIP at 23%. Not even close really (if count reflects that).

INteresting to see how the corbyn haters spin this - they won because he stayed away?

Probably refugees bussed in to vote with forged polling cards using fuel paid for by the taxpayer and then flown back to their internment camps in Lear Jets.

Anyway, if the figures are correct, thank you Oldham for proving to the media that you're not a bunch of racist Northerners.

Corbyns bro Piers on This Week this evening. Climate change denier, top bloke!

JC's brother on This Week 😯 😀

Contrary family.

thank you Oldham for proving to the media that you're not a bunch of racist Northerners.

Right wing nutjobs would love Piers' science, no doubt about that. Corbyn has no choice but to love him. Interesting when they asked him if he'd been peer reviewed.

To be fair the Labour candidate Jim McMahon is very much from the right-wing of the party - he was one of the tiny percent who voted for Tony Blair's preferred leadership candidate Liz Kendall.

If he does well I'm not sure that Corbyn can take much credit.

Although if he does badly it goes without saying that it'll all be Corbyn's fault.

JY, it was more of a sarcastic thing really - the media would have had us believe that UKIP had a real chance what with all those unsophisticated northern folk being easy prey for Xenophobes like UKIP. Which I always thought to be bullshit anyway.

UKIP had a real chance what with all those unsophisticated northern folk being easy prey for Xenophobes like UKIP. Which I always thought to be bullshit anyway.

Yep, bullshit....... it was the BNP that appealed to unsophisticated northern xenophobes. I'm guessing UKIP was a little too sophisticated for them.

The BNP got their best ever general election result in Oldham.

I wonder what the result would be like if they cancel the postal ballot (% wise) ... hmmm ... 😀 ... in a cold rainy day.

Labour's Jim McMahon has won the Oldham West and Royton by-election with a majority of over 10,000.
Mr McMahon increased Labour's vote share by over 7% from the general election, with UKIP in second and the Conservatives third.

but the turnout - just over 40% -

40% turnout at a by election is not particularly remarkable in any sense. They are most usually a fair bit lower than general election turnouts.

Edit; Although Jambalaya will be along in a while to explain that it is all Corbyn's fault, and if Labour had had the sense and decency to have elected Boris Johnson or someone as leader instead then it would have all been MUCH better...

which still doesn't make 40% a good turnout, just the fact that people are mostly apathetic about democracy and more likely moan about stuff on Facebook than do something about it.

which still doesn't make 40% a good turnout, just the fact that people are mostly apathetic about democracy and more likely moan about stuff on Facebook than do something about it.

or make voting compulsory, it does help down here in Oz. You at least have to think about it for a few seconds to avoid a fine.

There was a drop of 10% in the Tory vote in Oldham yesterday, the Tories are going to have to do better than that if they are to stand any chance of winning the next general election.

And only 6 months after their general election victory the Tories should still be enjoying their honeymoon period.

Good news for Labour.

So if this was a referendum on Corbyn as many had claimed.....

Probably best for UKIP to pick something other than a rock solid Labour seat to claim they're about to wipe out the party in the north of England. They, and the Telegraph look pretty foolish this morning.

Referendum on Corbyn, that would be a yes then.

Ukip really really tried to play the anti-Corbyn card too. And lets face it, he's had a tough week!

15% increase in postal ballots aparrently...

On the downside there's one more 'Blairite' MP to deselect.

15% increase in postal ballots aparrently...

*laughing smiley*

On the downside there's one more 'Blairite' MP to deselect.

On the upside potentially one less "Blairite" on the NEC.

Then: 14,784

Now: 10,722

Just saying.

Just saying

By election so obviously turnout was down, overall share of the vote up, therefore Corbyn is the saviour of Labour 😉

Of course I'm sure even corbs knows when your biggest opponent is the last dying fart of UKIP it's not exactly a challenge, whatever fantasies the telegraph spins to try and keep its readership

Solid win for Labour, sounds like the new MP will be a good addition to the House too. UKIP firmly establised as main challenger though.

Postal voting wouldn't had changed the result (7,100 votes and a 10,000 majority) but its quite worrying when only 40% of postal votes are cast early and one individual carrying many (family/friends ?) postal votes into polling station on voting day. It's not hard to imagine postal votes are registered centrally and then a person goes round on polling day to ensure they are completed and then carries them to the polling station. This isnt illegal but is a worrying trend.

Tory result;

Then: 8,817

Now: 6,487

Just saying.

Your point is?

UKIP firmly establised as main challenger though.

The postal one is something that will raise suspicion but I suspect its just the usual UKIP BS that Farage likes to spout rather than just accept that folk dont really like the [s]gently racist[/s] proudly patriotic anti EU bastards very much.

UKIP firmly establised as main challenger though

Then: 8,892

Now:6,487

Losing ground to Labour, and only a modest 2.8% increase in vote share overall, on the back of the Tories calamitous 9.6% loss in vote share.

ernie_lynch - Member

"And only 6 months after their general election victory the Tories should still be enjoying their honeymoon period."

But they started in a hurry,only in power a month befor IDS is soiling himself as Gideon puts forward the prospect of making the disadvantaged worse off. So the "Oh shit,what have we done?" that goes with a Tory vote has probably kicked in earlier. I could be wrong as I live in Scotland and we don't really bother with them in National elections.

Cannot help you there fella I now I live in Englandshire but i draw the line at hanging out with Tories 😉

Just saying...

Oh. That's a 10,722 [i]majority[/i].

Solid for Corbyn, then. In an already solid Labour seat, however. No spin to be had either way...

Solid for Corbyn, then. In an already solid Labour seat, however. No spin to be had either way...

That's my take. Good news for Corbyn, but very hard to draw any wider conclusion because it's a solid Labour seat and there are so many other variables.

@The Corbyn Haterz; Go on. Admit it. You're GUTTED aren't you? You were properly hoping to stick the knife in and twist it this morning. Ah well. You're time will come, I'm sure. Just not today...

It's not hard to imagine

No you don't find it hard to imagine all sorts of bizarre nonsense.

@The Corbyn Haterz; Go on. Admit it. You're GUTTED aren't you? You were properly hoping to stick the knife in and twist it this morning.

100 times this. ^^^^^

INteresting to see how the corbyn haters spin this - they won because he stayed away?

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/04/labour-sweep-to-conclusive-victory-in-oldham-byelection ]From the guardian, [/url]

"McMahon’s victory, in the early hours of Friday morning, was viewed by many present at the count as a triumph in spite of Corbyn than because of him. "

You can almost smell the disappointment in that article that they're not reporting a UKIP win.