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Unlikely I think.
As much as there's a hard right element to the Tories, there's an equally hard left element to Labour. Both are equally off-putting to a lot of folks.
If it were a possibility how come Labour & JC aren't doing better when the competition is the shower of shite that is the current Gov?
If it were a possibility how come Labour and JC aren't doing better when the competition is the shower of shite that is the current Gov?
How do you know how well they are doing, or what the result of an election would be? (don't say polls)
How do you know how well they are doing, or what the result of an election would be? (don't say polls)
Quite. The last election showed us that labour did considerably better than had been predicted.
A few random thoughts:
- When you think you're going to lose by a country mile, you can offer a giveaway manifesto safe in the knowledge you won't have to deliver. If you think it's close, less so.
- May is unlikely to lead the Tory party in the next election which is probably a point against Labour.
- ...but will the new leader be even less popular with voters?
- Historically Oppositions don't win elections, Governing parties lose them which is probably a point for Labour.
- A deeply unpopular administration, 10 years in, and Labour still didn't win in June which is probably a point against Labour.
- The sudden friendliness on behalf of the EU this month that seemed to me all about bolstering May at a difficult moment made me suspect that the last thing they want is career Brexiteers in No10/No11. I think the EU will be allies of the Tories in any future election. Not sure if that matters.
- Did the lead May had in the polls mean people didn't bother turning out for her? (Conventional wisdom is 'yes', but I strongly suspect being way ahead cost Hilary Clinton & May votes.) maybe a point against Labour.
Self preservation will mean the Tories won’t risk another election anytime soon, even with all the Brexit arguments they are not going to self destruct. The lesson of calling an election when seemingly well ahead is not lost on them.
Despite all the Brexit pressures and negative fall out for May from the snap election Labour have not pulled ahead. It’s been an open goal but they can’t score.
How do you know how well they are doing, or what the result of an election would be? (don't say polls)
Give me a good reason why I can't.
Quite. The last election showed us that labour did considerably better than had been predicted.
Yet still lost to one of the worst GE campaigns ever..
Conventional wisdom is 'yes'
Correction: I meant 'no'.
Our shop was in a lib dem area that turned Tory by a small majority.
At the last election one of our staff voted Tory. She is pro eu and agreed with all the lib dem policies but voted instead to keep Corbyn out. Quite how that works I don't know.
The only thing keeping May in power is Corbyn. The DUP are terrified of him as he's a passionate republican. The main question is whether the brexiters or the remainers in the tory party will collapse the govt. The remainers are in the ascendancy now so it's unlikely they'll be put in a country vs party position. The brexiters might just be crazy enough to cut their nose off to spite their face but I doubt it. It'll go to 2021/22. That's probably no bad thing for Corbyn. Gives him time to bring back some of the moderates into the shad-cab and plenty of opportunity for the tories to further damage themselves. I still wouldn't be surprised if he steps aside for someone else by then.
At the last election one of our staff voted Tory. She is pro eu and agreed with all the lib dem policies but voted instead to keep Corbyn out. Quite how that works I don't know.
Reaminer votes to stop long term hardcore brexiteers? Doesn't seem hard to figure out to me. (Although I am astonished the libs didn't clear up last election.)
Yet still lost to one of the worst GE campaigns ever..
The election campaign was called solely because labour was about 25 points behind. The narrative was that Corbyn would be annihilated and replaced as leader, not that he would achieve their best share of the vote since 2001.
Even Corbyn's most myopic opponents should concede that he ran a decent campaign.
I still wouldn't be surprised if he steps aside for someone else by then.
Nor me. He's acheived what he was elected to do. It really doesn't matter who carries the momentum flag now. The moderates have lost. There's no way he could have gone before they changed the nomination rules, now it doesn't matter.
Yet still lost to one of the worst GE campaigns ever..
This. Any Labour front bench of the last 20 years would have thrashed May. (Except they wouldn't, because May wouldn't have dared to take on a decent Labour front bench in June 2017). Losing to May by 60 seats isn't something to be proud of, it's a disaster. However, that doens't matter, cos he wasn't elected to beat May. He was elected to change the nomination rules to permanantly hand the Labour party to his own wing of the party. In that sense it's a triumph.
There is a lot of spin/manipulation going on behind Corbyn it seems - James O'Brien on LBC said his interview with JC was pulled in favour of someone less aggressive, apparently GQ magazine said that their interview with him was one of the wierdest they had done as he was so 'protected', and there is a lot of use of social media to make statements without the possibility of being challenged by an interviewer.
He made a lot of those gains in the last election with talk of gettinng rid of student loans and cancelling old loans, and from callers on LBC it seems a lot of people have seen through him and don't trust him. And then the brexit situation where he has let himself been seen as a remainer (although I don't believe that and note his reluctance to ever say anything actually commital), which is going to lead a lot of traditional labour supporters to also not trust him.
Plus there is no getting away from the Marxist leanings of McDonnell, which puts a lot of people off.
I was going to wade in but can’t be bothered. I’ll just say some of you tories/right wingers have a strange grasp on recent history and seem determined to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
I was going to wade in but can’t be bothered. I’ll just say some of you tories/right wingers have a strange grasp on recent history and seem determined to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
I think it shows their desperation. I'm not convinced by Corbyn's leadership skills but there's no doubt in my mind that Labour ran a smart, disciplined campaign.
I think what a lot of Corbynistas are unwilling to admit is just how bad the Tory campaign was.
(Bringing back fox hunting FFS? How out of touch do you have to be to think that's a vote winner???)
As admitting so, would actually be an admittance of defeat.
Yes, Labours campaign was ok, but bloody hell, it wasn't up against much!
I think what a lot of Corbynistas are unwilling to admit is just how bad the Tory campaign was.
On the contrary, I think most Corbyn sympathizers would be only too happy to acknowledge the complete car crash of the tory campaign. That being so, it still doesn't detract from what was a very well run labour campaign.
I think what a lot of Corbynistas are unwilling to admit is just how bad the Tory campaign was.
The obvious answer is that it was both, but positions are far to entrenched and polarized for that to be admitted.
What I'm seeing in this thread is a consistent refusal to concede that he got something right. You'd expect that from tories but it's disappointing that anti-Corbyn labour voters are still throwing their toys out of the pram.
I think what a lot of Corbynistas are unwilling to admit is just how bad the Tory campaign was.
What are you basing that on? I would say that pretty much all Corbyn supporters would freely admit that the tory campaign was a shambles.
positions are far to entrenched and polarized for that to be admitted.
I don't think that's remotely true. "The campaign was dreadful" is an obvious excuse for Tory members so they're not going to be shy about saying so. (That goes for May too, far better to blame her own campaign that amdit she's an all round duffer.) If anyone has a motive to big up the Tory campaign it's Labour/Corbynistas/Momentum and I've not noticed them being shy about slagging off May's campaign either. Pundits also agree it was dire.
Seems to be across the board acceptance that May's campaign was a disaster.
Dreadful Tory campaign
Load of momentum for Labour...yet...
...Who won and did they increase their vote despite being crap. What does that say for those who came first loser?
The clearout of Labour is progressing very effectively and beyond the radar screen. They now how to cull better than fox hunters!!!
What does that say for those who came first loser?
Much as I hate to agree with THM..
Saying how well you've done when you've come second is a bit like EVERYONE getting a medal on sports day.
The impression I get of those Corbynistas who think they did well is you must have had exceedingly low expectations.....
The Tories were easy pickings yet.....
FYI I'm a Liberal.
Saying how well you've done when you've come second is a bit like EVERYONE getting a medal on sports day.
Well no, cos there's a sports day every five years, sometimes less. So when you gain a huge amount of support, that's significant, even when you didn't win.
Plus there were multiple battles going on at the same time.
Labour should be 20 pts clear, right now, as for the fag end of the Major govt...
The impression I get of those Corbynistas who think they did well is you must have had exceedingly low expectations.....
Well yes, and I'm not sure why you think that's a criticism. Again, the election was called because the tories expected to wipe Labour out. For labour to post its best result since 2001 was far better than anyone predicted, Corbyn supporter or otherwise.
Less a criticism - more an observation.
If their hopes were so low, I think it suggests that they don't think a lot of their man JC...
If their hopes were so low, I think it suggests that they don't think a lot of their man JC...
A lot of them didn't. Which was part of the reason why they were so far behind in the polls.
A lot of them didn't. Which was part of the reason why they were so far behind in the polls.
Well, if those who know him have so little faith in him - how on earth can those who don't be asked to?.........
No one it was a hung parliament.Who won
Which is a really shit way of trying to not admit they lost seats and their majority.and did they increase their vote despite being crap.
As i said at the time it was the weirdest election ever as the losers were happier than the "winners".What does that say for those who came first loser?
Looks like that is still the case when "neutrals are spinning like this.
Everyone knows Mays campaign was the shittest in living memory.
Well, if those who know him have so little faith in him - how on earth can those who don't be asked to?
It's called campaigning.
Well, if those who know him have so little faith in him - how on earth can those who don't be asked to?.........
I think that's a false premise: Corbyn overwhelmingly won both his leadership elections, which tells us that the membership supports him. It is of course true that he lost the GE, but the biggest vote share since 2001 gives supporters grounds for optimism.
At the same time, there were many vocal critics in the PLP, who instead of respecting the leadership result, choosing to behave like petulant children, refusing to serve in the shadow cabinet and openly briefing against him to their friends in the media. What these people consistently fail to observe is that Labour has a content problem: and offering nothing more than Anyone But Corbyn achieves nothing. I make an honourable exception here for Kier Starmer, who despite his political differences with Corbyn, has rolled up his sleeves and got on with the job.
Corbyn overwhelmingly won both his leadership elections, which tells us that the membership supports him
Isn't that a bit of a false premise as well then? Given the no-confidence vote in 2016. Admittedly, much has changed but I'll wager that strong doubts within his own party remain.
It's called campaigning.
You've a very long road ahead of you then..
Isn't that a bit of a false premise as well then? Given the no-confidence vote in 2016. Admittedly, much has changed but I'll wager that strong doubts within his own party remain.
You're conflating the PLP with the membership. See the second paragraph of my previous post.
You're conflating the PLP with the membership. See the second paragraph of my previous post.
No, I'm not - if your own MP's have little faith in you then that's a problem, regardless of the views of the membership & visa versa.
Labour are now in a position where they could win the next election, I dont believe this would have been possible without Corbyn.
I dont believe this would have been possible without Corbyn.
Latest YouGov poll on who would make the best PM, Jezza came third. In a two horse race, that's quite an achieve!
With the utter shambles opposite them, Labour should be streets ahead in every poll going. That they are not is perhaps rather telling...
Shame on you fools who voted for a Marxist chancellor. You can deny Corbyn's anti British, terrorist sympathising values all you like but you can't change facts. Think long and hard before voting for him again if you have a mortgage, JC will happily sacrifice your home as he wrecks the economy and leaves your offspring to pick up the tab. Your misplaced sixth form principles mean that Socialism is a festering cancer that just won't die, despite its abject failure ever single bloody time it's given the reigns.
Shake off your inverted snobbery and all hail the Mogg 😀
Marxist chancellor.
Yawn. When are you lot going to change the record?
Think long and hard before voting for him again if you have a mortgage
WTF has having a mortgage got to do with it? I don't think they're planning on nationalising privately held housing.
JC will happily sacrifice your home
And how will he do that exactly?
Socialism is a festering cancer that just won't die, despite its abject failure ever single bloody time it's given the reigns.
Care to elaborate? How do you define 'abject failure'? The NHS? Welfare state? Workers rights? Narrower divide between rich and poor? Higher wages for the bottom half of the country? Fewer homeless? Better, more and cheaper social housing? etc...
multiculturalism
Marxist Chancellor?? Big John has some clever wheezes involving tapping the capital markets as borrowing pays for itself. He doesn’t quite understand how and why but mere details only last 12 hours normally
It’s rather sad to watch him being interviewed. He gets about 30.% of his briefing paper at best.
But some of his new best mates are asset managers and hedge fundies 😉
Marxist chancellor.Yawn. When are you lot going to change the record?
you can't dismiss it though with a flippant yawn when he himself says he is a Marxist :
The donkey jacket;
Cheap, warmish, cheap, waterproofish, cheap.
I had a non-pvc shoulder patch number from Millets.
Tragically, I used to wear it with Docs, silk scarf and a trilby.
What a ****.
Socialism is a festering cancer that just won't die
Socialism means using the mechanism of the state to help those who need it. If you think that's a cancer then you can FRO, frankly. Cos as far as I am concerned neoliberalism is a rotten cancer, the symptoms of which mean blaming the needy for their predicament and generally not giving a shit about anyone outside your own family.
That's ****ing disgraceful. So some socialist governments have failed, whatever, so have some conservative ones. In terms of social well-being, most Tory governments are abject failures.
Not everything is about ****ing money you know.
Call me a leftie snowflake whatever jeering insult is fashionable these days, whatever, but seems to me that all the justification for right wing policies boils down to people trying to justify ****ing self-interested behaviour.
See beggars on the street? Feel sorry for poor people? Should I a) empathise and strive to help them or b) blame them so I can wash my hands without feeling guilty? Which one is easier? Be honest with yourself now. Why do you choose b? It's cos makes everything easier for you.