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They would prefer no deal to Corbyn as PM.
Obviously, others can claim that Labour would prefer no deal to anyone other than Corbyn as PM.
Someone needs to put forward a proposal to get past this, and, I’d suggest, that if the Labour front bench put one of their own forward, they could both keep control over the process and be seen in the public eye as a team of practical politicians putting the country first. That isn’t how they are currently seen by much of the public.
Binners hasn’t thrown enough silliness at this thread recently…
https://twitter.com/generalboles/status/1178952687028723712?s=21
while the Lib Dems are seeking a cross-party temporary government led by a backbench grandee such as Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman, Corbyn’s office have called for a “strictly time-limited caretaker administration” – a Labour only government in office for a matter of days, purely to extend the Brexit deadline and call an election.
The assumption is that if the alternative was no deal, one side would blink, but it remains to be seen who, and when.
This is a critical difference - Corbyn led caretaker government would only be in power for days. Swinsons government of national unity would be in power for months
The lib dem activists I know are despairing of Swinsons take on this.
Swinsons government of national unity would be in power for months
Where did you get this from? PC and some in Labour have have talked about a multi month government to get a referendum. It’s not got anywhere really. Swinson has been pushing an early VONC to get an extension and quick election. Both SNP and LibDems think that post a snap 2019 election they will have a greater number of MPs in another hung parliament. Neither want the election delayed to next year.
Care to explain your reasoning?
It's fairly simple, Swinson and the tories claim to want to avoid no deal, but not by any (and the simplest) means. Their support for avoiding no deal is conditional on it not being led by Corbyn. By introducing this caveat they remove the simplest and most certain method of avoiding no deal and give Johnson the opportunity take us out by some underhand method.
Corbyn is the undisputed leader (despite the best efforts of Watson) of the next largest party. All the other parties recognise that, apart from Swinson and her tory friends. They should explain their priorities.
You know that works both ways. Time for someone to act the grown up, win a VONC, get the extension, call an election, and then pass it on to the voters. There must be someone on the Labour front bench that Corbyn trusts to get this done? He could be elected PM by Xmas.
Corbyn is the undisputed leader
Undisputed? In the common room, maybe?
80% of his own MPs would be absolutely overjoyed if he were abducted by aliens. In the country generally he’s about as popular as a fart in a lift 😂
You know that works both ways.
Only you if conveniently ignore centuries of parliamentary and constitutional precedent, and the basic arithmetic of the fact that the lib dems and tories are in a tiny minority compared to the rest of the opposition parties. If there were similar MP numbers on each side I'd agree, but there isn't. It's a simple decision for the lib dems and the tories. Do they want to ensure the avoidance of no deal and make it impossible for Johnson to take us out? If so there is only one way to do it, and that's to support a labour led interim govt.
There can be only 1
I’d be quite happy with Corbyn having five days as PM. I wouldn’t rule out someone else doing it if necessary, so we could get an extension & election, so that Corbyn can try and get elected for five years as PM. If Labour are happy to risk No Deal rather than put someone else forward for this, why do you defend that? And what happens if, after No Deal, the rebel Tories evaporate and Johnson stays on as PM? This autumn might be Corbyn’s last chance to kick off a general election campaign.
If Labour are happy to risk No Deal rather than put someone else forward for this, why do you defend that?
Because it needs to be sustainable. If Corbyn steps aside then it will not only open up whole new round of labour infighting, but it will also risk alienating many labour MPs who support brexit who could easily bring the whole thing down by voting against an extension. You think the likes of Dennis Skinner, Ronnie Campbell and Ian Lavery are gong to meekly step aside and be told how to vote by Swinson and Dominic Grieve? Corbyn at this point in time is holding the labour party together, and can provide the numbers from labour to support a new govt. Take him away and labour unity will collapse, and with it any hope of an interim govt delivering an extension.
Corbyn at this point in time is holding the labour party together
If no deal occurs this month, and there’s no general election ‘till 2022, then either Corbyn is gone, or Labour is, by the time we get to vote.
There had better be someone else on the front bench who can do this caretaker job… if there isn’t, and Corbyn really is the only person holding the party together, and there is no one else who can be trusted to be PM, even for just a few days, than the party isn’t going to last for long, is it.
There had better be someone else on the front bench who can do this caretaker job…
If in the unlikely event that Corbyn did step aside, the labour left would demand a Corbyn loyalist in his place which I doubt Swinson-tories will accept either. If Swinson-tories can play this game, so can they, and there's no way they'll accept a Blairite clone like Harman, Cooper or Watson, and certainly not a pro-austerity tory like Clarke.
The only solution is the one with the path of least resistance, and the weight of numbers behind it, and right now that's a labour led govt with Corbyn at the helm. Remember when Brown was desperately trying to engineer a minority govt with lib support after losing to Cameron? It didn't work because of the simple force of numbers against him. This is the same. Swinson might think she's the kingmaker, but she's not. I predict she'll back down in the end if it's required. She has very little choice if she wants to prevent a no deal exit.
I’ll leave this here.
<="https://apple.news/A_lIPdhGXTVaH_AKWZaEIzw">
that’s a labour led govt with Corbyn at the helm.
There can be only 1
Kelvin it's the path of least resistance. Everything else involves a ridiculous amount of negotiation, politicking and various other manoevres which there simply isn't time for. It's not about Corbyn, it's about what's feasible. There is no time to be throwing out convention and opening up a hornets nest of competing interests from all sides, and it will play into the hands of Johnson.
There can be only 1
Under his eye.
Will we all have to start the day with a salute to the glorious leader?
Kelvin it’s the path of least resistance.
No it isn’t. Conservatives need to be persuaded to bring down a Conservative government. Many would chew their own arms of before doing so to make Corbyn PM, even just for a day.
It’s not about Corbyn, it’s about what’s feasible.
Agreed. Conservatives making Corbyn PM, even for a day, isn’t feasible. You can’t go all logical on them, just give them the fig leaf of another Labour figure to be the temporary PM, get the extension, get the election, get campaigning. Lots of catching up to do there.
Many would chew their own arms of before doing so to make Corbyn PM, even just for a day.
Like I said, it's a question of priorities. I guess we'll see how serious they and Swinson really are when the chips are down. Everyone else is ready to go, so it's up to them.
They (many of the Tory rebels) will let No Deal happen before they put Corbyn in no.10, and then they’ll refuse to support calls for a snap post No Deal Brexit election (“not right at a time of crisis, etc”) … hoping to be back in the party fold come 2022 … and Johnson and his team will be laughing their heads off. Corbyn’s chance, if he really has one, will be long gone by 2022.
Everyone else is ready to go?
I hope it’s after Bake Off?
Bloody revolutionaries! ✊🏻
OH JEREMY CORB...Oh. Bugger. Erm,..
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1180828851909402624?s=19
Well all the current polls are interesting because we were promised that if JC move towards a second ref people would swamp him in droves.
Ah.
That has been forgotten. Where are the selfless centrists ? You can't possibly be supporting Jo can you?
The polls show a very clear endorsement for Brexit at the moment with the Tories way out in front - despite the sex yeti making such a hash. But it's a clear-cut hash and that's what folk like.
However I also think some of the polls are carrying very suspect sampling from what I've read.
Too little, too late.
The polls show a very clear endorsement for Brexit at the moment
Which polls?
As for Corbyn’s policy for Brexit… if a clear line was finally being developed, the fun and games of the conference has left the public not really having a clue what it is once more.
Well all the current polls are interesting because we were promised that if JC move towards a second ref people would swamp him in droves.
The Labour party could have done okay on a 2nd ref policy but the problem with the Labour party is Jeremy Corbyn. He has proved to be a poor leader and even before that most people were turned against him by the whole terrorist sympathiser crap.
He should have stood down after the last election where he helped get Labour back to a better position policy wise. Not sure who would have replaced him but they could easily be better media wise and more popular with less baggage.
Not sure who would have replaced him but they could easily be better media wise and more popular with less baggage
I”ll get my coat....
Look... after the conference you can't say that labours Brexit policy hasn't been properly and clearly quantified. It has. There is no room for ambiguity. To summarise:
Get rid of Tom Watson
Clear?
The polls show a very clear endorsement for Brexit at the moment with the Tories way out in front
+1
I'm not buying the too little too late rubbish. It's just a convenient excuse to ignore the obvious, that there is still majority in the country for brexit. I know remainers find this very hard to accept, but all the evidence points towards this, including the drop in support for the lib dems which is conveniently overlooked.
Remainers need to get over their obsession with Corbyn and start admitting reality. It's all very well wishing for a new leader, but the likes of Blair et al would have given in by now and started chasing the poll ratings by triangulating towards a more pro-brexit position.
You can’t possibly be supporting Jo can you?
It's the only remain party so for remainers there's little alternative.
Remainers will go LibDem, leavers will be split between Tory/Brexit Party.
Hard to imagine why a leaver would vote Labour when that can choose between two parties who are Leaver orientated. Also hard to imagine why a remainer would vote for a party with a Leave Leadership that took months to drag itself around to to a position that is only slightly less leave-y than they were at the last election.
...and that's before you factor in the huge liability asset of JC/Momentum.
there is still majority in the country for brexit
An interesting claim.
It’s the only remain party so for remainers there’s little alternative.
They're so remain they refuse to do the one thing that can stop a no deal brexit. The lib dems are not remain, they look and sound like it, but their actions betray their real intentions, which is to use remain as a way to gain votes, without ever seriously needing to do anything to achieve it.
The lib dems are not remain, they look and sound like it, but their actions betray their real intentions, which is to use remain as a way to gain votes, without ever seriously needing to do anything to achieve it.
Well, yeah, all the parties are picking a position to gain or retain votes. That's democracy and appealing to ~50pc of voters is a better starting point than any other party. Torys and Brexit Party are sharing the other 50pc.
With the nation polarized between leave and remain and with the leavers split between two parties I think there's a serious chance the libs *will* need to do something to achieve it - Polling neck and neck with Labour last week.
Either way, voting to stop Brexit will be more effective than complaining on STW.
What was the option for the 38% of people that didn't choose one of those names on the poll?
A. Literally anyone else
B. Jed Bartlet
C. Help me I am trapped in an inescapable vortex of mediocrity.
D. I'm serious, send help.
there is still majority in the country for brexit
I'm sure this is absolutely true, aside from all the polls that have been published over the past 2 years that show it isn't.
aside from all the polls that have been published over the past 2 years that show it isn’t.
How do you square that with the apparent popularity of Johnson and his single policy of taking us out of Europe? There is nothing in recent poll results which shows labour have benefitted from their move towards the remain side of the argument.
which is to use remain as a way to gain votes, without ever seriously needing to do anything to achieve it.
To be fair, you don't have to do much to win votes in the present climate. As the polls continue to show, and the EU and local elections demonstrate, with Grandad at the helm the labour party are literally giving them away
There is nothing in recent poll results which shows labour have benefitted from their move towards the remain side of the argument.
Its too late. The labour party has sat with its thumb up its arse for 3 years, muttering a series of increasingly incomprehensible and fantastical, Red Unicorns and cakist policy positions on Brexit.
They're neither one thing nor another, so everyone has just given up on them and moved on
Corbyn cheerleader Ian Lavery was on Pienaars politics yesterday. Absolutely detached from reality, along with the rest of the Grandad fan club. He says that it doesn't matter what the polls are saying, Jeremy got over two thousand people to a rally in Newcastle at the weekend, and that's what really matters. That's how you win elections, apparently
How do you square that with the apparent popularity of Johnson and his single policy of taking us out of Europe?
Check out his realistic competition in the race to be PM after the next election.
How do you square that with the apparent popularity of Johnson and his single policy of taking us out of Europe?
I make no attempt to. You're the one who's always saying that there's more involved in people's voting intentions than brexit.
There is nothing in recent poll results which shows labour have benefitted from their move towards the remain side of the argument
They haven't really moved, have they? Vote for us and we will negotiate a shiny red Labour brexit, then let you vote in a referendum, is not a remain position.
Its too late.
It's not really. Most voters don't follow politics, and will only make a decision in the run up to the election during the campaign as they don't follow politics any other time. They will have much less knowledge of the history and evolution of labour's brexit policy than we do. They'll make a choice on what they think makes them better off. At the moment it's not looking like remain/2nd ref is convincing them. Quite the opposite in fact.
So you’re saying it doesn’t matter what people think now, wait ‘till the election campaign, but that we should look at what people think now? It’s getting harder to work out your logic beyond… ‘People want Brexit, and they won’t change their minds, and, simultaneously, people don’t know yet that they want Corbyn, but they will discover that they do at some point before the next election’.
Meanwhile make assertions about what the public want for brexit now and draw a connection between that and the Tory's position in polls ( that, err, don't mean anything ). That's some gymnastics of thinking right there.
Corbyn's Labour will not win the next election with their continued fudging of the issue.
Talking of correlations (and possible causations) … compare the personal ratings of the party leaders to the support for the parties themselves. Sadly, people don’t just look at policies, I wish they did, they look at the leader and, maddeningly, depressingly, Johnson is a vote winner for his party, where as…
Sadly, people don’t just look at policies, I wish they did, they look at the leader
So you want a leader who can stand toe to toe with Johnnson in the popularity stakes? Sadly there is no one. So it makes little sense to fight on that territory. If anything, maybe Corbyn should have stuck to his guns and insisted on leaving, possibly with no deal so that labour could rebuild a fairer society free from the constrictions of neo-liberal economics? I'm not saying that's my view but if we believe what the polls are telling us that's what they should have done. The argument that labour is losing because they're not remain enough is becoming thinner every time a new poll comes out.
if we believe what the polls are telling us
If we believe your odd interpretations of what the polls are telling us.
odd interpretations
The tories, with their singular focus on leaving are miles ahead, Boris is by far the most popular PM candidate, and the hard remain parties are losing ground. You can either interpret that as people want brexit, or you can imagine that Corbyn is so unpopular that people who don't want brexit will support it anyway to stop him winning. Which of those is the simplest explanation consistent with recent electoral history?
And before you bring up the labour's performance in the euro election, just remember that was still won by brexit supporting parties.
I can ‘interpret’ that being single minded on Brexit is helping Johnson win back supporters from the Brexit party… and I can also ‘imagine’ that there are people who don’t want Brexit but would still vote for another party, even Johnson’s, because they don’t want Corbyn and his Straight Left advisors running the country. There’s no ‘or’ about it. Both seem plausible and can be happening concurrently. In fact, I strongly suspect that they are.
So anything other than the bleeding obvious that Boris is way ahead because people want to - to use a shit phrase - 'get brexit done'? I'll never understand this urge to only pay attention to polls if they support your own view, or draw the exact opposite conclusions from them. The simple answer to all this is that the polls are they way they are because there is still support for brexit. As much as I don't like that, it's the obvious and common sense conclusion. Lets hope they're wrong.
Who thinks there isn't support for Brexit though? It's everywhere, packaged up in a much friendlier campaign than before. (Don't believe me - see their stalls in town centres - balloons, people dressed up in costumes, money for hospitals!)
A few strongly argued bits in the Guardian - along with Alastair Campbell walking his twitter moral tightrope hasn't really made up for the increasing push on the Brexit side - certainly in my region.
I do find it contradictory that on the one hand the over-simple yes/no referendum has been criticised with hindsight as being pretty much the root cause of where we are; and yet when that simplicity has been addressed with the complexity it needs by the Labour party it is apparently too complex, confused or too late.
The battle is actually as much to stop a Labour government at all costs.
Clearly Bollocks to Brexit solved so much.
Johnson is popular.
Corbyn in unpopular.
We get that.
What else were you saying?
Oh, I see, Corbyn is unpopular because he isn’t pro No Deal No Say Brexit? Is that what you’re both arguing the case for? Carry on…
There is not majority support for Brexit across the UK - all the polls on how the UK would vote if the referendum were run again show this. Current support for the Tories is traditional Tory voters and leave voters. Labour's lurch to loony left policies, and lack of a clear commitment to remaining mean that liberal (small 'l') remainers like myself will not vote for them.
It's really not that difficult to understand.
JP
It’s really not that difficult to understand.
The turnover of polls for how the UK would vote for a government also indicate a definite trend towards the Tories.
You're ignoring a correlation between these polls and the leave vote.
Other than 'Leave' the Tories aren't offering anything new to the electorate. There is no other reason anyone would vote for them, unless you're extremely wealthy or a masochist.
Like you say not really that hard to understand.
There is not majority support for Brexit across the UK
Them we can expect Boris' popularity to slide imminently then?
Good.
Johnson is popular.
Corbyn in unpopular.We get that.
What else were you saying?
So you don't think there is a correlation with how much more popular Johnson is now versus May who offered up a wishy-washy Brexit solution?
Given Boris is offering no concession to the remainers and Corbyn moved towards remain how can you not extrapolate that at all?
(Also my argument mainly lies with the 'predictors' on here who insisted that if Corbyn moved towards remain he would lap up the electorate. Where has that argument gone?)
There are too many people on here that lay out theories and then when we get to test it then don't reconcile their logic by admitting they were incorrect.
Other than ‘Leave’ the Tories aren’t offering anything new to the electorate. There is no other reason anyone would vote for them, unless you’re extremely wealthy or a masochist.
That has been the case for the last 40 years and even with the whole Brexit thing they are still the party that has been in power the most.
Yes the wealthly and masochistic vote Tory but so do the misled masses
I will go with you partly there. But 40 years ago we didn't have the absolute farce that we've had for the last 3 years to humiliate them.
Other than ‘Leave’ the Tories aren’t offering anything new to the electorate.
Have you missed the last couple of weeks since Boris found a forest of magic money trees? He's set about stealing Labours clothes. New hospitals, an increase in the minimum wage, 20,000 new police officers, etc, etc...
is it all smoke and mirrors? Of course! Do they intend to deliver it? Of course, they don't!
But a lot of people are clearly buying it. Especially in leave-leaning Labour seats in the north and midlands, which is exactly what they're relying on to win a majority at the next election, and exactly who this is targetted at.
And in reply to all this, from the labour party?
The usual deafening silence from the invisible 'leadership'
... or did Jeremey do a Tweet?
(Also my argument mainly lies with the ‘predictors’ on here who insisted that if Corbyn moved towards remain he would lap up the electorate. Where has that argument gone?)
He hasn't moved towards remain though, has he? He's merely re-stated the same Red Unicorns/constructive ambiguity nonsense. Against the wishes of the membership, it should be added, through his conference stitch-up. Yay for 'restoring democracy to the membership'.
Only when it suits, eh?
I think it was Jess Phillips (booooo.... bloody Blairite!) who summed up the problem with that.
"The remainers think we're leavers and the leavers think we're remainers"
Hence Labours pitiful poll ratings
^ that. The suggestion that Labour have moved in any measurable way towards remain is laughable. Labour's approach continues to be conducting the same experiment and expecting a different result.
No way on earth remainers will be bitten twice by the same policy.
So while Pinky and The Brain have hoovered up all the brexit party support Labour continue to piss in to the wind.
Have you missed the last couple of weeks since Boris found a forest of magic money trees? He’s set about stealing Labours clothes. New hospitals, an increase in the minimum wage, 20,000 new police officers, etc, etc…
Oh yes for sure. Boris definitely understands that governments can spend, which they can of course when it suits them.
However Labour are offering plenty of cherries too.
While Labour’s policy shift (putting their Brexit to a referendum against Remain) means I and many others can vote for them again (and I will) they are never going to get enough seats at a general election with the current leader, no matter what their policy is on Brexit or anything else. Everyone knows it. The tone of your posts suggest you do as well @rone… to see the Tories romping ahead is very frustrating. All we can hope for is a hung parliament with the balance not in Johnson’s favour… and even that looks like little more than wishful thinking now. Corbyn should have stood aside long ago.
There's a reason Johnson is doing everything to get an election ASAP. He knows, full well, he'll face the most unpopular and frankly almost comically hopeless opposition leader this country has ever seen.
If he faces Corbyn then he gets a majority. It's that simple.
He knows it. We all know it. Even Corbyn knows it.
Yet there he still is. Sat on the fence like Karl Marx's garden gnome. Dooming us all to the Brexit he's always yearned for and then another 5 years of Tory rule with Boris ****ing Johnson at the helm
* slow handclap for Jeremy *
Polls keep getting referred to in this thread as gospel, I remember in the build up to the referendum the polls said remain would be by a landslide and look how that turned out...
Yeah... that ain't happening again. And let's not forget... he still lost. Despite it then being painted as some great victory.
Peak Corbyn was reached in 2017 when he faced the worst election campaigner in history in the Maybot, and its been the law of diminishing returns ever since. He should have gone then.
Instead, he's going to get to skulk off having gifted Boris Johnson a majority to go on to deliver a 'Tory Brexit' - to use Jeremy's words - then christ only knows what.
The far-right will be toasting Jeremy Corbyn for decades to come
Polls: Depends what you want from them. To choose an example entirely at random, you can say that the PM has a massive lead in the polls that correlates with the public mood of 'brexit', but you can also say in the same breath that Corbyn's woeful performance in the polls is because people don't know they want to vote for him yet.
Yeah, amazing, isn't it?
Yeah… that ain’t happening again.
Would have thought by now you would have got out of the predictions business having proved so utterly shit at it.
Morning comrade. Is the revolution progressing ok?
So, in an upcoming election...do you see the proletariat throwing off the shackles of their capitalist oppressors and rallying behind Jeremy to deliver the bright socialist future (outside the EU)?
Is that chewy?
Would have thought by now you would have got out of the predictions business having proved so utterly shit at it.
Absolutely.
He'a covered most bases though.
He prefers all the strong candidates for PM such as Watson, Rory Stewart and Jess Phillips.
Morning comrade. Is the revolution progressing ok?
Portugal are doing okay without you.
I see the Momentum tried and faithful failed to get Jess Phillips deselected this week, to make way for another Corbynite sock puppet?
Still... nice to see them applying their energies to the most pressing problems facing the nation
Yeah… that ain’t happening again. And let’s not forget… he still lost. Despite it then being painted as some great victory.
Peak Corbyn was reached in 2017 when he faced the worst election campaigner in history in the Maybot, and its been the law of diminishing returns ever since. He should have gone then
Socialism v the status-quo is always going to be a hard sell. The fact that it was as close as itn was some achievement.
But if you're happy with all the shit that's gone down pre-Brexit then by all means keep supporting it.
Socialism v the status-quo is always going to be a hard sell. The fact that it was as close as it was some achievement.
Counts for nothing. He lost. We still got a Tory government. And look where that got us.
But if you’re happy with all the shit that’s gone down pre-Brexit then by all means keep supporting it.
Ah yes... the usual. If you don't support Jeremey you're a Tory/Yellow Tory/ Red Tory/Blairite scum*
There are lots of things to be bloody angry about with the pre-brexit 'status-quo'. Lots of things. Yet we have a leader of the labour party that, against by far the worst government this country has ever seen, is still dismally failing to offer the nation a viable alternative that even natural labour voters are prepared to support, never mind floating voters in key marginals that are needed to deliver a majority
The Corbyn experiment has utterly failed by any metric (usual common room popularity exemption applies, obvs). He needs to be gone and the party needs to have a serious look at itself as it is presently a dithering, paralysed electoral irrelevance. And I don't know if you'd noticed, but we could use an effective opposition right now, and for the last 3 years while Jezza and co have been AWOL
* delete as applicable
So you don’t think there is a correlation with how much more popular Johnson is now versus May who offered up a wishy-washy Brexit solution?
Given Boris is offering no concession to the remainers and Corbyn moved towards remain how can you not extrapolate that at all?
(Also my argument mainly lies with the ‘predictors’ on here who insisted that if Corbyn moved towards remain he would lap up the electorate. Where has that argument gone?)
He hasn’t gone remain strongly enough, the reason the stories are in the lead is that the remain vote is split.
He hasn’t gone remain strongly enough
I wonder why that could be...
A real head scratcher, isn't it?
Unfathomable. I don’t think we’ll ever get to the bottom of it Flashy.
Then again... do you think it could be one of those conundrums where, in the end, the answer turns out to have been really obvious all along?
Hmmmmmmmmm.... I wonder....