Jeremy Corbyn

Ernie I hope your view prevails and Labour keep focusing on by-elections rather than their performace in Scotland and Wales

Ernie I hope your view prevails

What view is that ?

That these by-elections reflect the terrific impact JC is having on the electorate

But that's not my view at all. In fact it's the complete opposite.

It would appear to me that Corbyn becoming leader hasn't had a dramatic effect on Labour's electoral fortunes. That was my point.

It was [u]you[/u] that was predicting electoral meltdown for Labour.

And it is [u]you[/u] who is predicting the next general election result. A very easy win for the Tories apparently.

I have consistently said that I have no idea who will win the next general election. Although I have also said that if forced to give an opinion I think, on balance, Labour will [i]probably[/i] lose the next GE.

Don't you listen to anything I say ?

I don't mind but if you are going to comment it might help if you did.

ernie_lynch - Member

Don't you listen to anything I say ?

Jamba often doesn't seem to know what he's said never mind anyone else.

I reckon we're heading for Labour meltdown.

Not sure that equates to an easy Tory win though. Small parties can really make inroads into crucial floating voters in marginals. The current Govt with its tiny majority is utterly impotent with no hope of getting a majority for any of the unpopular decisions that some think need to be made. Tories aren't popular.

So JC may have crucified Labour, but I don't think we know where all the floating voters will land and what the next Government might look like.

Small parties can really make inroads into crucial floating voters in marginals.............

...........I don't think we know where all the floating voters will land and what the next Government might look like.

Well you could look at by-election results as people generally feel they can enjoy the luxury of voting however they like as it won't make one jot of difference to which party is in government.

For that reason smaller parties and independent candidates tend to do much better in by-elections than they do in general elections.

As an example the LibDems, and the Liberal Party before them, traditionally did very well in by-elections often winning stunning victories.

I personally can't see much evidence that smaller parties are enjoying greater popularity under the present political climate.

Hardly anyone these days trusts the LibDems, UKIP seem to have shot their bolt, the BNP vote has collapsed, and Green Party support has stagnated.

I reckon that for the 90 plus percent of the UK population that lives outside Scotland it's a straight choice between the Conservatives and Labour.

And for that reason when push comes to shove and the two main parties pour resources and people into the marginals the smaller parties will get squeezed next general election.

imo

"I personally can't see much evidence that smaller parties are enjoying greater popularity under the present political climate."

UKIP got 15pc. You'd assume after the referendum they'd disappear, but the SNP didn't, quite the opposite.

Maybe I'm overstating it, but it feels to me like small parties can get their message out and grow (and shrink) faster than ever before.

Maybe I'm overstating it, but it feels to me like small parties can get their message out and grow (and shrink) faster than ever before.

I agree with this, I think social media and internet generally means parties can share their message much more cheaply and easily than ever before. Also the relevance of traditional media as opinion forming is much less than it was.

@ernie I do read what you post. As I said I think the electoral evidence points strongly to support my view. However I am more than happy for the experieme to continue. I would very much like the UK to be able to cast its vote on a more strongly left wing agenda than we've seen before. You never know if we vote Remain and Greece goes bust bringing down the eurozone and dragging us into a €1 trillion bailout the UK may blame the Tories and elect Labour or a Laboir Lib Dem coalition. Its possible.

outofbreath if by smaller parties making crucial inroads into marginals you mean UKIP then I don't see much evidence of that either.

In the by-election held in a marginal seat last Thursday UKIP received half the vote they had recieved in last year's general election.

In a constituency of 72,000 voters only 507 bothered voting for UKIP.

UKIP received 1.6% of the vote which I don't think had a massive effect on the marginal seat.

And that's what UKIP managed last Thursday whilst currently enjoying massive media coverage and their leader being afforded the constant opportunities to give interviews and soundbites.

The Green Party, which is completely shunned by the media and whose leader is ignored, did better and got 2.6% of the vote - exactly the same as the Liberal Democrats.

As I said, not much evidence of smaller parties making inroads and some evidence that UKIP has shot its bolt.

@ernie I do read what you post.

Well in that case you know I have never claimed [i]"That these by-elections reflect the terrific impact JC is having on the electorate"[/i]

What I have said is that the Labour vote seems to be holding up quite well, despite all the predictions of you, Tony Blair, Guardian leader writers, etc, etc.

I can't see the point of you attempting to revise and alter what I have said.

People's interpretation of posts always varies - seems I misinterpreted what you intended to say. As for "holding up" I though JC was supposed to turn things around, be the new dawn etc ? "Holding up" is what he said about the council elections, that's not good enough to win a GE is it ?

UKIP are focusing entirely on Brexit, thats what the local activists told me in Southampton. They entered candidates for local elections somas to be on the ballot but did zero campaigning as Brexit is the single most important issue they care about and we have a specific referendum on that

As for "holding up" I though JC was supposed to turn things around, be the new dawn etc ?

Really? Don't you read the newspapers? Or even what you yourself write?

The Labour vote is suppose to be collapsing - electoral meltdown etc.

What's actually happening is that with another 4 years to go to the GE it's holding up quite well. In fact it's improved a bit since the last GE, which is all that Labour needs to do to win in 2020, they don't need a landslide.

Anyone else think Corbyn is now on much dodgier ground? Before he could fend off his enemies as bitter Blairites who refused to accept his election, now with his less than enthusiastic defence of EU membership, he's handed them a bona fide substantive reason to get rid of him. It pains me to say but I think he's blown it big time. I reckon he'll be gone by the end of the year. And he'll deserve it.

Yes, I think he'll go, and maybe even sooner than that.

One thing that might be weirdly in his favour is that a lot of the Leave voters were Labour supporters!

IMO he clearly did not believe what he was saying in campaiging to Remain. As such the party are right to ask is he the right Leadef ? The Labour party needs to look very hard at itself as it is "their" traditional supporter base which has swung to Referendum to Leave

Now's the time for the Labour Party to choose a leader more committed to the EU?

That makes sense.

.

One thing that might be weirdly in his favour is that a lot of the Leave voters were Labour supporters!

Yesterday's referendum vote was very much an anti-establishment vote. The vote that made Corbyn leader was an anti-establishment vote.

People are rejecting the status quo. Choosing a "safe" leader who is well-liked by the media and won't upset things too much doesn't appear to be a solution.

With the UK having chosen Brexit I expect a massive intensification of attacks on Corbyn by the "establishment". You ain't seen nothing yet. Corbyn as PM was totally unacceptable to them and they were prepared to go to extreme lengths to stop him. Corbyn as PM without the shackles of the EU is going to be even more terrifying for them - he'll stop privatisation for a start.

IMO he clearly did not believe what he was saying in campaiging to Remain. As such the party are right to ask is he the right Leadef ? The Labour party needs to look very hard at itself as it is "their" traditional supporter base which has swung to Referendum to Leave

I agree with Jamba. Strange times!

Yesterday's referendum vote was very much an anti-establishment vote. The vote that made Corbyn leader was an anti-establishment vote.

It was a reactionary vote, however you tart it up. The racists and loons who tipped the balance are not going to swallow his pro-immigration internationalist beliefs.

Corbyn as PM

I didn't think there was much chance of that before, now I think there's zero chance. His only hope previously was some sort of coalition with SNP, when Scotland leaves, that's no longer an option.

One thing that might be weirdly in his favour is that a lot of the Leave voters were Labour supporters!

Surely the opposite is the case - Remain lost because Corbyn did not convince the white working class that their problems would not all be solved just by kicking out some Poles. Whether you agree with his ideas and principles or not, you have to agree that he is absolutely rubbish at the soundbite politics that convinces the rabble to vote for you. Cocking up PMQ week after week was embarrassing enough but it didn't really matter. This time it did matter, and he was found wanting.

The racists and loons who tipped the balance

If the racists and loons tipped the balance who were the rest of the 50% ?

I would be interested to know.

I agree it was an anti-the status quo vote. Unfortunately those doing the voting haven't quite managed to think through the consequences.

I would be interested to know.

I don't know how much more evidence you need. It's pretty clear that it was working class non-metropolitan voters who formed most of the leave vote. And the leave campaign was based pretty much on the single issue of immigration. Add to that plenty of other evidence that a xenophobic and reactionary atmosphere ('we want our country back!') was fueling leave support I find it very difficult to understand how you think this was somehow the common man/woman sticking it to those awful neo-liberal capitalists.

Vote of No confidence tabled.

I don't know how much more evidence you need.

Well perhaps I didn't make myself clear. I was interested to know who [i]you[/i] thought the rest of the 50% were, if according to you the racists and loons tipped the balance.

I'm still none the wiser. You seem to be suggesting now that they were all motivated by xenophobia. But never mind - it's not that important, I was just vaguely interested in what you thought.

Corbin could be out. Vote of of no confidence.

mefty - Member
Vote of No confidence tabled.

That was quick - have Hodge and Coffey not read the script. Political Lifetime back closer to original expectations now (possibly).

What a funny old world.....

I was just vaguely interested in what you thought.

I don't think all were motivated by xenophobia, I'm sure there were a fair few lefties taking the anti neo-liberal view. I know a few, and I also know a few who just wanted to register some sort of protest, so yes I'd put them in the anti-establishment camp. I'm convinced though that the vast majority were reactionary working class types who had xenophobic motivations, even if it wasn't outright racism.

I suppose my own view on it is that today the working class have done themselves no favours. They've allowed themselves to be conned by the very people who have least interest in them, and much like in the US, they have voted against their own interests. And that's the charitable view.

I suppose my own view on it is that today the working class have done themselves no favours. They've allowed themselves to be conned by the very people who have least interest in them, and much like in the US, they have voted against their own interests. And that's the charitable view.

Perhaps we just get what we deserve in the end?

Perhaps we just get what we deserve in the end?

Indeed we do. I'm off back to being a nihilist. It's much easier 🙂

To fair I'm asking questions to people who are quite understandably devastated by yesterday's result, emotive and not necessarily very rational responses is to be expected.

I would have been gutted if the vote had gone the other way, indeed until the first results I was overcome with deep gloom, and had been for quite a while.

However I am so used to disappointments when it comes to politics that I can probably take it in my stride better than others.

I think that perhaps the debate needs to be put on hold until things settle down.

For either side, there's vote's in them there referendums - any party offering a clear political choice for "ramainers" could do well but i suspect it might be a bit like herding cats.

Why were you so keen for the UK to leave, but so keen for Scotland to stay Ernie?

One thing that might be weirdly in his favour is that a lot of the Leave voters were Labour supporters

I thought Labour supporters were not

The racists and loons who tipped the balance

plenty of hate on the left for the EU and it's support of big business

characterising simply either side simply is part of the reason we have a leave vote, it also contributes to us and them politics which then creates the polar/ tribal politics that get us nowhere. the more hysteric the language the worse the damage

ernie that was brilliantly subtle, got all your digs in and still managed to type it as if it was conciliatory 😆

your posts are a joy to read.

Genuine compliment as I type what I mean.

The people have spoken and we need to look at what we CAN ALL DO to make the country actually UNITED again.

Olive branches need to be held out, they need to be taken and we need to stop insulting each other even subtly as it really wont help.

An honest discussion is what is needed and calling the winners racists loons is not going to be very helpful in us moving fwd.

I suspect the best thing I can do is STFU and its probably the best thing many on here can do to help the healing.

I thought Labour supporters were not

With the tories and labour in utter disarray it's quite hard to know what happens next.

An honest discussion is what is needed and calling the winners racists loons is not going to be very helpful in us moving fwd.

I hate to say it but you said much the same after the election.

An honest discussion is what is needed and calling the winners racists loons is not going to be very helpful in us moving fwd.

Half a day has passed and I'm still seething so healing and moving forward is not happening yet I'm afraid. I've already told 2 people at work not to come anywhere near me today.

Honest discussions do not interest these people otherwise they wouldn't parrot blatant lies fed to them by Nigel Farage et al. I'll stop calling them racist loons when they stop saying things like 'we want our country back'.

a racist loon gives his view
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/brexit-democracy-i-voted-leave-divisions-campaigns

a racist loon gives his view

Funny....he just said what I had said on the other thread.

a racist loon gives his view

The same ridiculous analysis we heard after the election. If being comfortable with immigration and foreigners is metropolitan elitism then sign me up. If the labour party's only hope is to engage with and apologise for bigotry and ignorance, then it's already dead.

If the labour party's only hope is to engage with and apologise for bigotry and ignorance, then it's already dead.

The London bubble has burst. The world has been turned upside down. Now is the time to create a new settlement with each other. And when we build ourselves back up and regain our economic vigour – and, of course, we will – no one should be left behind this time.

Completely deluded of course.

The disillusioned poor will be first in line for any public sector cuts....

Labour ****ed.
Conservatives healed.

Turn up for the books!

ernie_lynch - Member

To fair I'm asking questions to people who are quite understandably devastated by yesterday's result, emotive and not necessarily very rational responses is to be expected.

I would have been gutted if the vote had gone the other way, indeed until the first results I was overcome with deep gloom, and had been for quite a while.

However I am so used to disappointments when it comes to politics that I can probably take it in my stride better than others.

I think that perhaps the debate needs to be put on hold until things settle down.

Junkyard - lazarus

ernie that was brilliantly subtle, got all your digs in and still managed to type it as if it was conciliatory

your posts are a joy to read.

Genuine compliment as I type what I mean.

Well that's a rather unpleasant comment Junkyard. And no, I certainly don't take it as a "compliment".

I know that I am pisstaker extraordinaire on here - I simply can't take anything in life too seriously, including myself and my politics.

But among the pisstaking I do like to include some serious comments. I leave it to you to distinguish between the two. Not a terribly difficult exercise I would have thought.

To be fair I realise that the art of pisstaking probably tends to be a working-class/builders type of thing, middle-class wallahs don't seem to engage in it to quite the same level.

I do appreciate how devastating the referendum result must be for the Remainers and how angry and disappointed they must feel - especially as it seemed so certain they would win, even if narrowly.

I also appreciate how they have real and genuine fears for the future, and how they believe this result represents a huge triumph for racism and xenophobia. I think they are wrong but I understand how fearful and angry they must be, I certainly would be if I believed that.

I do not however believe that Britain is a racist country. On the contrary, compared to pretty much all other countries it is the complete opposite of that. In fact as an unofficially naturalised Brit I am deeply proud of the British in that respect.

Having said all that, and having had plenty of personal experience of bitter disappointment with regards to politics, it occurred to me that now, a few hours after huge political bombshell when the wounds are still raw, is probably not the best time to expect rational debate with people who clearly feel very angry and disappointed - they are likely to exaggerate and say things which they don't really mean. I was reminded of the aftermath of the Scottish referendum.

It's a pity that you didn't accept my post in the spirit it was written. What did you expect me to do......add a winky at the end of my post to show that I wasn't having a [i]"dig"[/i] ffs?