It is impossible to predict what will happen to mankind in the next 3-4 billion years with any degre eof certaintity
We will die out?!
can i see the maths to support that?
It is just an opinion I can just say no we will build space ships that fold time and/or travel through worm holes and populate the entire universe.
I have as much eveidence for my suggestion as you do for yours ie none as it is a supposition on both our parts.
OMG the thread rises once again, along with Junkyards ability to mis-read / twist what anyone says! Bravo!!
As said on the other thread I don't think anyone denies that it is not acceptable or sustainable the rate that we are using up the natural resources on our planet. I also don't think you will find anyone who doesn't think that cutting emissions has to be a good thing, and that it is everyone's personal responsibility to do so. I think we are all agreed on that.
I think the biggest differences are between those who think that we can alter the natural cycles of the earth and those who don't and what that means in the short term we should be concentrating our efforts on.
Personally I think that the growing energy and food shortages is a far more important issue to deal with.
I also don't think you will find anyone who doesn't think that cutting emissions has to be a good thing
A lot of people do think this is bad. They think that reducing emissions necessitates a reduction in economic output and development.
None of the AGW advocates are saying that we should try and alter the earth's natural cycles, that'd be stupid. What they are saying is that we are altering climate far far quicker than it has ever altered before on a natural cycle (eruptions and meteorites etc notwithstanding) which means that the environment and people will not be able to cope.
Hainey if we are not altering the natural cycles what difference does it make it we reduce our emmissions ?
I do agree that other issues are equally as pressing and easier to resolve - starvation, malaria, population growth for example.
Hainey if we are not altering the natural cycles what difference does it make it we reduce our emmissions ?
Good question!!
We're not altering the natural cycles, we are adding to them.
Junkyard - ...what will happen to mankind in the next 3-4 billion years
You give us that long?
You give us that long?
Optimistically - 400 - 500 years tops.
Nah, I think we're here for the long haul. We'll figure something out.
We'll figure something out.
The planet would be in a better shape if we didn't.
It will be a busy little planet in 400 years time, world population has quadrupled in last 100 years, by my estimates thats over 400billion people!!
I know, i know, a little inconceivable!
Junkyard historical evedence would suggest that no animal/species has ever survived that long. What give you the impression that we can? We are already running a full capacity interms of population. How can we possibly survive 4 billion years. We're no where near smart enough to ever come up with inter galactic travel. Also time travel will never happen. Fact.
Hainey, just think what the Lakes will be like on a bank holiday Monday!
The planet would be in a better shape if we didn't.
I'm sure all the mice, elephants, sparrows and snakes etc will appreciate that.
Re population - why would you think that past growth will continue into the future?
Re population - why would you think that past growth will continue into the future?
Why would you think it wouldn't?
It was an extreme example but if say population only doubled in the next 400 years, thats still double the people as of today to feed. And if they all want steak for dinner every night, thats a lot of cows!!
It's well known that people start of having big families because lots of kids die. Then medical technology increases so more kids start to survive, but people still have big families out of habit. Then they start having only two or three, and population stabilises.
The people who actually study population dynamics think it'll top out about 9bn, IIRC.
From here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
In 2006, the United Nations stated that the rate of population growth is diminishing due to the demographic transition. If this trend continues, the rate of growth may diminish to zero, concurrent with a world population plateau of 9.2 billion, in 2050. However, this is only one of many estimates published by the UN. In 2009, UN projections for 2050 range from about 8 billion to 10.5 billion.
10.5 billion is still a lot of people!
What is it today? 6.5 billion people?
I also saw an article which had a UN high prediction of 14.5 billion by 2100
That is a lot more mouths to feed.
Hainey you are getting dangerously close to using models here to predict the future ...easy there easy 😆
It is a lot, yes. But not many times today's figure.
With a bit of planning and consideration it's probably sustainable. After all, 1.2bn of those folk are being ruled by a government that seems pretty heavily into low carbon development.
If the population doubles then i think there is a little more we need to do than "a bit of planning"
With the current population they are currently predicting a food crisis in the next 60 years. Thats without adding any more.
We need to concentrate more on our over-dependence on meat, our poor farming practices and how we can be more sustainable and stop the desertification of our farmland. And don't get me started on fishing stocks!!
A bit of planning was tongue in cheek! I mean it's sustainable if we change the way we live. Including such things as having to drive/fly for business, eating meat, eating off-season veg, building leaky buildings, water management, soil management, power generation and so on. Probably a load of things I've not thought of.
But agreed, agriculture is one of the major ones, if not the major one.
according to the Japanese it's whales that are responsible for depleting fish stocks.
don't worry though they have a plan.
But agreed, agriculture is one of the major ones, if not the major one.
Agreed.
I'm not doing a very good job of reducing meat consumption though 🙁
