**** me. Some mountainbikers are arguing about religion on a forum and you want CVs?
The elephant demonstrates his lack of understanding yet again
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This thread is brilliant - I'm using it as an example to mates to discuss
[list][*]how science really works (get data/theorise/predict in cycles)[/*]
[*]how climate 'skeptics' argue (proclaim stuff, ignore requests for clarification)[/*][/list]
It also works on studying religious people (how you can't prove a negative).
Keep it up, it's fascinating!
Car to elaborate as to whom and on what subject ashmo
i can't really elaborate on who because, to be honest, reading 15 pages is boring.
however but several general themes need addressing here and i'm coming at it from a paleo/geological background an atmospheric pysicist or whoever may place focus in other areas.
the whole premise of this thread is wrong anyway (i realise this has probably already been said), it is highly likely (from model and proxy data) that climate change (not global warming as things are more complicated than it [i]getting a bit warmer[/i]) will cool UK latitudes depending on deglaciation rates and oceanographic changes.
there is overwhelming (note that i do not say irrefutable) evidence human are affecting climate and that climate operates with a system of [u]internal thresholds[/u] and [u]forcing lags[/u] (e.g. the paleocene-eocene thermal maximum and younger dryas events) and we should therefore be worried. some of these events are correlated with milankovich cycles, some are correlated with cryospheric changes, some are correlated with co2/ch4 changes (from various sources: surpise surpise the carbon cycle is ruddy complicated). direct comparisons to paleo environments are to be used with care as climates change in response to solar/oceanographic/astronomical/tectonic forcings simultaneously.
research is ongoing, there is no proof (if there is such a thing in paleo-climate); science is iterative and doubt is normal. there is edidence that catastrophic climate switches have occured in the past, which would have massive human cost if they occured today. it is clear the carbon cycle is a major component of the climate system. the idea you BELIEVE climate change is an absolute nonsense the EVIDENCE is what's important.
Edukator,
That was a great series of answers to hainey's questions - don't go wasting your time on those US/Indian/Chinese forums.
There are plenty of people on here who take this whole thing seriously and even those of us who believe in the threat of climate change are learning things.
Z11
I don't have evidence, but I'm fairly confident that the evidence being distributed as "proof" of global warming doesn't stand up to scientific scrutiny, primarily due to all the various correction analogues and logarithms applied to make the data "fit" the theory.
How about rising sea levels - do you think that offers any corroboration?
Does anyone on here have local evidence of recent rising sea levels?
Just a simple question.
Z11,
in the face of that, I think the prospect that we *might* get a global temperature change in the future, and as such need to drive the car 5 miles a week less, is angels on a pinhead territory
But I think that the prospect that we *might* get a global temperature change in the near future that will unleash devastating hurricanes and cyclones around the world, rising sea levels (1m forecast in the next century) that will wipe out many coastal towns and cities, and droughts that will devastate harvests in the poorest parts of the world is quite important. Maybe if people can be persuaded to drive less it will make a difference.
On the other hand, I can't do much about earthquakes.
re: tyger: sea level rise
no, probably not, unless anyone on here lives on an atoll in the indian ocean. eustatically sea level rise is a barely noticeable 2-3mm pa, isostatic effects are important in previously glaciated areas (i.e. the north of the uk) and then it becomes complicated.......and that's not even mentioning geoidal changes.
many feel the ipcc07 underestimated sea level rise as it does not consider the potential collapse of the west antarticic ice shelf, for which there is serious evidence.
an interesting point is that in the eemian interglacial (130 kya, i.e. the interglacial before this one) sea level was 5-6m higher than it is currently. which is aroud the contribution eustatically the WAIS would have should it collapse.
Ashmo, when looking at the past deciding which of your solar/oceanographic/astronomical/tectonic forcings dominates or which factors combined to produce sets of conditions is complicated. However once you have worked out which influence each factor has then predicting what will happen as a response to a major change in any one of them is quite easy:
Solar: A massive increase in solar activity and we fry, but it's unlikely that we will see anything out of the range we've observed any time soon. The Earth's orbit is well described and sun spot cycles are well documented from tree rings and lake sediments. Sun spot activity has been low for years and we should be cooling in response.
Oceanographic: continents move a few cms a year so we shouldn't see any dramatic changes any time soon other than those provoked by climatic change. The north Atlantic conveyor appears to be slowing according to the voltage in telephone lines so we are working on finding out why. The most likely answer is due to more fresh water in the Arctic ocean which in turn is evidence of a response to a climatic change towards warmer conditions rather than a cause of warming.
Astronomic: Milankovitch in other words. Nothing in his work to suggest we should be suddenly warming now.
Tectonic: We're going through quiet time in terms of volcanic activity, nothing to provoke warmin here.
So if all the natural factors point to us cooling and we're warming then you can be pretty certain that the human factor we've identified is responsible: the emission of large quantities of CO2 whilst simultaneously removing the sinks. IMO it's time to kick one's scientific philosophy of doubt into touch and tell the public the way it is without all our beloved conditionals:
500ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere and we're going back to atmosperic energy levels not seen in 25 million years and that won't be very nice. The Hawaii data says were already at 380ppm or well over half way there.
Edukator, first you are saying it Milankovitch, then volcanos, then sun spots, then a potential of all combination or none.
Can you explain again what was the cause of the peaks seen appproximately every 100,000 years? Oh, and for just for clarity why this isn't relevant today?
"**** me. Some mountainbikers are arguing about religion on a forum and you want CVs?"
No mate we are arguing about science and one of us is saying 97% percent of the experts are wrong , and even producing as proof of his thesis graphs generated by the experts he disagrees with effectively saying his interpretation of their data is better than their's. Thats why i want to know his qualifications before i decide wether to go with the lone voice in the wilderness or stick with 97 out of 100 guys with labcoats and thick glasses and initials after their names .
Some one sugested this argument is like religion christians vs islam , it's not, that one is falling out over whose imaginary friend is best. This argument is more like the athiests vs the scientologists. Scientific thinking and rational debate opposed to wishful thinking blind hope and a refusal to engage.
IMO it's time to kick one's scientific philosophy of doubt into touch and tell the public the way it is without all our beloved conditionals:
i understand this view, however presenting uncertainites as certainites can (as we see in this thread) result in a kickback from non-scientists who aren't familiar with the scientific process and be ultimately destructive.
97% percent of the experts are wrong
Go on, i am going to have to ask for proof of that statistic.
[i]Edukator, first you are saying it Milankovitch, then volcanos, then sun spots, then a potential of all combination or none.[/i]
Yup, and that'll do to answer your question, Google it even, or read the paper you linked your graphs from a few pages back and read the references quoted too.
That natural cycle will henceforth be distorted by mans's activity. The highest temperature recorded in the current cycle (climatic optimum about 8000 BP) will be exceeded and we will not plunge into a cooling period for as long as man artificially maintains atmopheric CO2 at high levels. I am confident enough of my predictions to have used words without "ould". I believe we will burn every last drop/lump of fossill fuel and we are doomed, doooommmed.
To hainey The source for the 97% figure is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
you owe me:-
one climate scientist
one geologist
and a graph that models historic ice core forward in decades not millennia and superimposes available current and past global temperatures but does not reveal a sudden inconsistent rise now.
The source for the 97% figure is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Really? Because you typed it?
THe trouble with climate science is that every **** thinks they're an expert.... There is lots of local climate change going on, but there is no trend of global warming or cooling and we're not 100% sure what's causing it. The End.
ut there is no trend of global warming or cooling and we're not 100% sure what's causing it.
Read this again carefully, think hard about it, then read it again. When you've done that try coming back and explaining what it means.
I know exactly what it says and what it means, but figured i'd add to the nonsensical claims that make up the other 600+ posts in this thread.
OK 🙄
you owe me:-
one climate scientist
one geologist
and a graph that models historic ice core forward in decades not millennia and superimposes available current and past global temperatures but does not reveal a sudden inconsistent rise now.
Crankboy - I owe you nothing, but since you asked...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Gray
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petr_Chylek
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_M._Carter
Would you like me to go on?
[url= http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptics/Gray.html ]William M Gray[/url]
Oh i am sure you we can round in circles all night and find biased websites in either direction which rubbish peoples work, i don't do that as i am open to their research unlike seemingly you.
Its a very religious / chuch of scientology viewpoint to go round rubbishing people. Sad.
[url= http://mediamatters.org/research/200605230011 ]Dupont lied about chylek's findings[/url]
Robert M Carter is funded by a mix of mining and oil industry sources and claims to be independant. Laughable.
[i]Robert M. Carter
Broad also cited Robert M. Carter as asserting that "[n]owhere does Mr. Gore tell his audience that all of the phenomena that he describes fall within the natural range of environmental change on our planet. ... Nor does he present any evidence that climate during the 20th century departed discernibly from its historical pattern of constant change." Broad identified Carter simply as "a marine geologist at James Cook University in Australia," but he failed to note that Carter is a global warming skeptic with ties to the oil and gas, coal, and timber industries.
Carter identifies himself as a "founding member" of conservative Australian think tank Australian Environment Foundation (AEF). A June 13, 2005, article in the Australian Canberra Times reported that, upon its launch, the "Australian Environment Foundation's registered office and principal place of business is listed as right-wing lobby group, the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA)," which according to an August 9, 2003, Inter Press Service report, is funded by "mostly mining, oil, tobacco and energy companies." The IPA's funders reportedly include "Western Mining Corporation, Esso Australia (a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil), the top fifteen electricity companies - BHP, Shell, Philip Morris, British American Tobacco, Clough Engineering (and) Telstra (telecommunications company)." [/i]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Jones_(climatologist)
I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.
Sorry, didn't want to do that.
Yup, there are "scientists" doing unscientific things on both sides. So far you've cited three totally corrupt ones working for the skeptics and one foolish one worried that his science was too complex for the public to understand working for the climatic change brigade. Keep 'em coming.
Let me guess the response:
Ermmm well.... Richard Lindzen wets his pants and sucks his thumb.
Pathetic.
Lidzen is more interesting, he recognises that man has increased CO2 levels by 30% but then says that it hasn't produced warming - remember my post about the pan of simmering water, adding a lid and seeing no temperature change - just a lot more activity.
He also gets thousands of dollars a day for consulting fees from the oil industry if you dig a bit deeper.
LOL
Nope, I'm not a scientologist. What's pathetic?
What was it you were saying about people who laugh on forums a few pages back Hainey?
Robert M Carter is funded by a mix of mining and oil industry sources and claims to be independant. Laughable.
So you think that a scientist funded by Greenpeace is less independent?
Nope Zulu, you are right to treat Greenpeace publications with skepticism too, but stuff that get published in the likes of Nature is well enough peer reviewed for the biased stuff from the extremists on both sides to get eliminated.
Hainey well done 33%
question one! PLEASE Name one qualified scientist who currently does not think man made climate change is an issue or who believes that the current temperature rise is due to the natural cycle postulated from the ice core samples???By the way i was actually originally pointing out that the person whose graph you used does not think it shows what you claim it shows.
answered (sort of)!
question two! PLEASE name one geologist who argues that the Milankovitch cycles fit all the sedimentary data currently available.??
not answered!
and a graph that models historic ice core forward in decades not millennia and superimposes available current and past global temperatures but does not reveal a sudden inconsistent rise now.
absent!
Yawn.
Crankboy you are becoming extremely boring in fanatically asking a multitude of questions without really putting forward any evidence as to why you think we will suddenly break away from the natural cycles we are in? Are you able to do this? PLEASE!!!! Have you read any of the links i have posted or just dismissed them because you are so resolute in your view?
a graph that models historic ice core forward in decades not millennia and superimposes available current and past global temperatures but does not reveal a sudden inconsistent rise now.
No, i can't provide a graph which i doubt actually exists. Your constant requests to confront data over decades is puzzling? Do you think that climate change shift can be reviewed over such a short time period? Really?
crankboy - i'll give you that qualified scientist - me.
crikey - we don't know what's not causing a climate trend. personally i can think of loads.
hainey.
for the third time (and I'm not even asking a question that calls for research or facts) how about having a break from stonewalling crankboy and answer my question:
You said
Smoking and Lung Cancer - yes
Moon made of cheese - no
I said
Right, me too. But what made you accept that one of these things is true and the other not, when we can't PROVE (in your terms) either of them?
Carter identifies himself as a "founding member" of conservative Australian think tank Australian Environment Foundation (AEF). A June 13, 2005, article in the Australian Canberra Times reported that, upon its launch, the "Australian Environment Foundation's registered office and principal place of business is listed as right-wing lobby group, the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA),
What, a right-winger being a climate skeptic? Who'd have thunk it.
Is there a limit to how many people this planet can actually sustain whilst maintaining it's ecosystems?
I expect there is and we breached it long ago, all this talk of saving the planet seems ridiculous to me, the planet will be fine it's us and all the other creatures that will be buggered.
Based on historical precedent we wont be missed - sad but true. The earth seems to do OK without dinosaurs it'll get buy with less people I'm sure. I think climate change is only an issue because it may have an effect on the West, the developing world has been up the shitter for years and we barely care. I understand our government has already pledged a whole 5 mil to the victims of the earthquake. Seems like a drop the ocean compared to the disaster fund for the banks.
I have a horrible feeling we are being frightened so we are more pliant and keep shopping, that "green" dollar is a hot market right now but then I am probably just paranoid after all what would be the motive to have us live in fear. I mean it's not as if the entire consumer society works by making you fearful of being left behind by the joneses or anything is it?
Rambling now but these issues are complicated and interlinked I'm sure.
Is there a limit to how many people this planet can actually sustain whilst maintaining it's ecosystems?
Richard Heinberg, who's a well known peak-oil theorist reckons that we should look at a point in time before massive industrialisation took place to find the natural carrying capacity of the planet. He suggests pre-WWII - when the population was around 2 billion (V 6.7 billion now).
