Is the Brexit/Trump...
 

[Closed] Is the Brexit/Trump stockmarket rally the new dotcom boom?

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[url= https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/12/top-fund-manager-likens-trump-market-rally-to-dotcom-bubble ]Neil Woodford thinks so[/url]. Or are all the doommongers predicting a crash that's not going to happen - maybe just a minor correction as exchange rates find a new normal?


 
Posted : 13/01/2017 12:04 pm
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In addition to stealing, QE is designed to mis-price assets/risk

Brexshit led to a sharp devaluation which has the same effect as lower interest rates - hence the market rallies

The FTSE 100 has outperformed the FTSE 250 due to the currency effect and difference in the constituents of he two indices

So the rally has been logical. But bonds and equities are not undervalued, so you are buying momentum and liquidity at the moment. Caveat emptor.


 
Posted : 13/01/2017 12:09 pm
 mboy
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GW tanked the Dollar to over 2 to the £ for a chunk of his 8yr reign... And though disparaged worldwide, he at least had the approval of most of his own party!

If I was American, and I had any money to invest right now, I'd be betting against the dollar and buying foreign currency.

A lot of people will get very rich off the back of Trump, and not just the ones directly in his administration.


 
Posted : 13/01/2017 12:15 pm
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im no economist , but, after every boom.....[img] [/img]


 
Posted : 13/01/2017 12:15 pm
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Yes but it's deciding when the top is that's the trick.

So where to put money now, Japan?


 
Posted : 13/01/2017 12:25 pm
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Could we see oil surge again? Edited to rise next year, who knows what Trump effect will be on Iran, Russia, China, Saudi etc

That might offset a big crash.

We've also got record levels of public debt.

It's complicated I suppose


 
Posted : 13/01/2017 12:36 pm
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The rises simply represent the lack of return on alternative investments. I'm in the same position as many, there is no higher return elsewhere so some of my cash may as well earn some dividends while the risk doesn't feel to high. If anything changes how I feel about risk or I find I can get a better return elsewhere I'll sell. No doubt many others have the same idea so there could suddenly be lots of people trying to sell, the price will readjust (and some will start screaming "crash" and run around in panic).


 
Posted : 13/01/2017 12:44 pm
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I expect once Putin starts annexing off half of Eastern Europe (with US backing from his FSB asset / POTUS), we'll see some negative sentiment....


 
Posted : 13/01/2017 12:48 pm
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The difference with this "boom" is that unlike dot.com and 2008 not everyone is fully invested up to the hilt. There are huge piles, countless billions, of cash-equivalent liquid assets just waiting for the next "crash". This will limit the extent of any market reversal as all this cash piles in to take advantage of perceived bargains. The only way this will change is when the bad debt that's being hidden on bank balance sheets and by central banks finally defies concealment, but that's a way off yet because the vested interests are still very strong. It won't end well, but it won't end yet. So, for now, buy.


 
Posted : 13/01/2017 1:38 pm
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Yes but it's deciding when the top is that's the trick.

So where to put money now, Japan?

This, except not Japan.

Take it whilst you can, you'll feel the plummet suck soon.


 
Posted : 13/01/2017 1:42 pm