[Closed] Is May about to call an election?

ninfan - Member
I'm calling for the police to be armed, as they already are in part of the UK and pretty much the rest of the world.

Can you provide evidence that it'll stop terrorism?

Assuming the "planning" stage is fairly limited and largely verbal the first time these guys step outside the law in a provable way is when they go on the rampage.

I'm sure that amassing bomb making material and building the device is fairly illegal.

Dunno what can be done about nutters in vehicles though other than as suggested, modify driver behaviour and town planning, so a win win on that front?

Assuming the "planning" stage is fairly limited and largely verbal the first time these guys step outside the law in a provable way is when they go on the rampage.

I'm sure that amassing bomb making material and building the device is fairly illegal.

Dunno what can be done about nutters in vehicles though other than as suggested, modify driver behaviour and town planning, so a win win on that front?

How are you going to pay for all the extra cops required to cover the training time for training all cops to be even basically competent with a firearm?

In NI it's built into their initial training period, at a total cost of £582.94 per officer (less than the cost of training them to drive a panda car, but we don't seem to think that's beyond the polices means, do we?)

PC Ninfan earlier (panda car just out of shot).

[img] [/img]

so about 120k Police officers
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2015/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2015
Quick maths £582*120,000 is £69.8 Million plus the guns, plus the ammo, plus the ongoing training, plus the law suits

Double post

Arming police just leads to more guns in general. More guns in circulation leads to more shots fired. It's an escalation in violence.

ninfan shows his true colours here.

Aye, armed police.
As noted above, it will start an arms race for most violent criminal enterprises, not just bank robberies and "my drug dealing mates" going "Strapped"

mikewsmith - Member

Quick maths £582*120,000 is £69.8 Million plus the guns, plus the ammo, plus the ongoing training, plus the law suits

In NI it's built into their initial training period, at a total cost of £582.94 per officer

Awesome. That will just about cover a few rounds down range and "dont point a gun at someone in jest". Just to be clear my idea of basic competence is being less of a liability than someone who isnt armed.

(less than the cost of training them to drive a panda car, but we don't seem to think that's beyond the polices means, do we?)

I think it costs rather more to train an advanced driver. Which is what the equivalent training level you want if you dont just want the guns in the hands of the muppets or more casualties caused by the cops than by the muppets.

And Cressida says it won't do much and might be counterproductive in a crisis.

Ninfan - do feel free to listen to people who have some knowledge of the situation - Cressida that is, not me.

Is a hung parliament now the most likely outcome?

molgrips - Member
Is a hung parliament now the most likely outcome?

latest poll (jun 3rd) from Survation has Con 40, lab 39

yougov (jun 2nd) Con 42, lab 38

not sure what the latest attack might do to that and it is after all only polls

YouGov have modelled seats and put Tories on 305 or so.

Who knows how accurate that'll end up being! I think sleep will be hard to come by on Thursday night.

It seems impossible to me that the candidate getting the hardest questions is being least evasive

You seem to be operating under the illusion that the fact May fails to answer the questions means she is being asked the hardest questions. Why is that?

How do you know this? That's right. From the media.

#FullyCostedIdeas
I had a very interesting conversation about the difference between Competent and Proficient, one is a legal minimum to be able to go out there. At the end of this quick intro these people may face having to use their weapons on day 1.
https://www.pri.org/stories/2015-07-04/how-british-police-officers-keep-peace-without-carrying-guns
http://www.cracked.com/personal-experiences-2353-i-was-cop-in-country-with-no-guns-6-startling-truths.html

So, we had police, in the right place, at the right time, and in a role and job where there is just little or no chance that he would have been armed. If he had been, this attack would have been over in seconds.

How so? Sure, he might have been able to shoot one attacker, but assuming it was close range a knife is a far quicker weapon to wield, and he was outnumbered 3:1. He had just as much chance of shooting innocent bystanders in the panic, and once they'd overpowered him they'd have his gun and ammo too. Excellent. 🙄

Is a hung parliament now the most likely outcome?

I think that the whole concept of polling, and their previous models used, is now so completely all-over-the-place as to be totally irrelevant.

The bottom line is we won't know until the fat lads sings. Which means it'll be interesting to sit and watch the reults come in. There's bound to be the odd Portillo moment

I've stuck a tenner on no overall majority, last week. I got odd of 7/2

Nah May will manage to keep her majority, probably a modest increase?

enjoying that the tories will be having sleepless nights until then tho, some of them look horrendous at the moment Johnson, Davis, Maybot herself

Is a hung parliament now the most likely outcome?

That depends. YouGov suggesting it will be; other polls suggest a Tory majority of varying size.

The crunch issue seems to be what the youth turnout (as opposed to intention to vote) will be, as they're disproportionately likely to vote Lab, but also disproportionately unlikely to actually vote, and we won't know the actual turnout until the exit polls (which, of course, don't reflect postal votes hence why they were wrong on Brexit).

Other factors:

Tactical voting - may be more of a facto this time round than in previous elections [b]but[/b] very hard to quantify
Whether the status quo confers a benefit (because people vote for stability) or a disadvantage (because people who want change are more likely to make an effort and actually vote).

Is a hung parliament now the most likely outcome?

Very much doubt it. I'd say it's best possible outcome, but still unlikely. I'm looking to the next election. The most realistic result is a tory victory with a small majority. This will tee things up for next time, labour can build on the superb campaign and policies they've presented this time round, and in time find a more publicly acceptable leader who the party can unite around. The tories will spend the next 2 years tearing themselves apart over brexit, and will then have to explain not getting a deal. They will also probably try to get rid of May, bringing further disapproval for imposing yet another PM that no one voted for. It all adds up to a labour landslide in 2021/2, with proper leftwing progressive policies, and post-brexit where they will have the freedom to implement them.

I'm looking to the next election

December?

Very much doubt it. I'd say it's best possible outcome, but still unlikely. I'm looking to the next election. The most realistic result is a tory victory with a small majority. This will tee things up for next time, labour can build on the superb campaign and policies they've presented this time round, and in time find a more publicly acceptable leader who the party can unite around.

Agree. Corbyn has done a great job in presenting proper Labour policies and a lot of people like them (against the wishes/predictions of most of the Labour party)

Need to find a leader who hasn't got so much baggage that the media can use against them but can continue to present the same policies.

Stop asking about majorities.

Jamba has decided on about 75-150 (as I recall - feel free to check) for May and that's all you need to know.

😉

ratherbeintobago - Member

I'm looking to the next election

December?

Lollertrons 😆

It will never be that long

dazh - Member
imposing yet another PM that no one voted for.

Technically, no-one has ever voted for a PM(apart from MPs).

If May resigns - then what?

[quote=molgrips ]If May resigns - then what?

Boris...

How so? Sure, he might have been able to shoot one attacker, but assuming it was close range a knife is a far quicker weapon to wield, and he was outnumbered 3:1.

Steven Seagull would have dispatched twice as many in an instant.
I've seen him do it, on the telly

Very much doubt it. I'd say it's best possible outcome, but still unlikely. I'm looking to the next election. The most realistic result is a tory victory with a small majority. This will tee things up for next time, labour can build on the superb campaign and policies they've presented this time round, and in time find a more publicly acceptable leader who the party can unite around.

Yes, I think I agree with this. Corbyn's legacy will be adoption of policy that differentiates Labour from the Conservatives, and places them well for re-election under a less baggage-laden leader. It's remarkable how little attention has been given to the fact that Labour has just ripped up 40 years of neo-liberal consensus, and made a successful job of selling it to the electorate.

Ironically, it's quite similar to the job Kinnock did in the 1980s.

If its hung* & May resigns the tories will fight like oiled up vipers in a tub for a week or so until the bloodied victor emerges, Booris, Gove or equally unpleasant Raab?

If its a tory landlside and Corbyn resigns Labour will engage in a slow motion rutt that should see Cooper elected by Ed Balls day next year

* I still dont think that itll be anything other than a Tory victory tho

[i]"There is no honest measure of success and failure other than success equals Labour gains, Tory losses and at least a tight finish with possibility of a minority government. Failure equals Labour losses, Tory gains and an increased Tory majority."[/i]

Hard to disagree, surely?

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/neil-kinnock-success-labour-more-seats-and-possibility-governing

Not sufficiently investigated? Ok, what could more investigation have done? Short of random searches of his flat for chemicals (which I guarantee would have you lot up in arms about his human rights being breached) they could do nothing, nothing based only on his suspected intent.

One of the attacker's neighbours has been reported in the press today stating that he spoke to them on Saturday afternoon as they were unloading a B&Q hourly hire van being used to move furniture -

"he was euphoric and wanted to know how he could hire a van".

If this is true, the plan for Saturday night was put together in the late afternoon before B&Q shut and then actioned only 2-3 hours later. I'm dubious on whether any level of security or interception could have prevented the attack if these timings prove to be correct.

Hard to disagree, surely?

considering that Corbyn was supposed to make Labour 'unelectable for a generation' according to certain posters on here then youd say that anything other than a tory landslide would be good going

ultimately it [b]is[/b] about winning so in that case at best you could say that Corbyn has helped shift the narrative

a hung parliament would be a good way of neutering the nastier elements of Tory government and be good celebrated among the rural fox community 😉

fully costed

It's not. Much of it is based on the false assumption that both income tax and corporation tax revenue are perfectly inelastic - IMV they're not.

If May resigns - then what?

It's remarkable how little attention has been given to the fact that Labour has just ripped up 40 years of neo-liberal consensus, and made a successful job of selling it to the electorate.

I think that's wishful thinking, the only reason Labour are doing well is the Tories under May are an utter shambles.

One of the attacker's neighbours has been reported in the press today stating that he spoke to them on Saturday afternoon as they were unloading a B&Q hourly hire van being used to move furniture -

"he was euphoric and wanted to know how he could hire a van".

If this is true, the plan for Saturday night was put together in the late afternoon before B&Q shut and then actioned only 2-3 hours later. I'm dubious on whether any level of security or interception could have prevented the attack if these timings prove to be correct.

what about the guy claiming on the news today that they had previously reported one of them to the anti-terrorism hotline

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-40159360/they-didn-t-get-back-to-me

so they had 2 years to check out this guy, not a few hours

while on R4 today the police stated they get >22,000 calls a year to the hotline, but dont have the resources to chase everything up?

I think that's wishful thinking, the only reason Labour are doing well is the Tories under May are an utter shambles.

If ever we wanted evidence that Corbyn can't win...

Postal vote filled in..

Wonder what the weather will be like on Thursday...

The most realistic result is a tory victory with a small majority. This will tee things up for next time, labour can build on the superb campaign and policies they've presented this time round, and in time find a more publicly acceptable leader who the party can unite around. The tories will spend the next 2 years tearing themselves apart over brexit, and will then have to explain not getting a deal. They will also probably try to get rid of May, bringing further disapproval for imposing yet another PM that no one voted for. It all adds up to a labour landslide in 2021/2, with proper leftwing progressive policies, and post-brexit where they will have the freedom to implement them.

Very much this.

while on R4 today the police stated they get >22,000 calls a year to the hotline, but dont have the resources to chase everything up?

Clearly lack of resources not helping. Wonder what the usual outcome of following every call up to conclusion is, what can they actually do other than add them to the list?

The young will fail to vote again then whinge and moan the babyBoomers have screwed their lives up.

wicki - Member
The young will fail to vote again then whinge and moan the babyBoomers have screwed their lives up.

quite possibly

I think that's wishful thinking, the only reason Labour are doing well is the Tories under May are an utter shambles.

Agree. ...and conversely the only reason there's an election at all is because Corbyn is so utterly dreadful.

Counterfactual: If Ed Balls or David Milliband were Labour leader with a sane shadow cabinet May would lose by a landslide.

Corbyn's unable to fill shadow ministerial posts, his own MPS reckon he's abysmal. The other party leaders regard him as toxic. (Christ, the 'fear' of an SNP/Labour coalition has evaporated purely because Corbyn is so dreadful and nobody thinks the SNP would touch him with a bargepole.)

Corbyn has performed way better than anyone expected, but he's still a disaster for the Labour party and that's before he deselects all the moderate Labour MPs and changes the rules to make it easier to get fringe candidates into leadership elections.

He's offering a vote-winning giveaway manifesto where everyone wins at the expense of a tiny minority which sounds good to the credulous, but the only reason he can do that is beacuse he thought he was going to lose and would never have to deliver.