[Closed] Is May about to call an election?

Also fwiw I predict reduced SNP share of the popular vote

Agree. They did so well last time they'll do well to match it. I'm quite pleased, they're a bunch of cocky **** and even the smallest reduction will make it look like their trajectory is down and take them down a peg or two.

Hope the media choose to go after TM because of the debate thing.

They might try but it'll be a bit lame - there's been enough in the media about this in 2015 that the public are well aware a wise incumbent shouldn't 'do' a debate because debates favour the challengers.

i'll have a couple of quid on the ultra-coalition of Lab/LD/Green/PC/SNP to handle the (already lit fuse) Leave negotiations.

jus cos eh.

kimbers - Member - Block User - Quote
hmmmmm

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-cps-considering-charges-against-over-30-people-including-tory-mps-over-expenses

I allueded to this a few pages back, she's on the run. 20 byelections? No way can she take that risk with a 17 majority.

You know, I wouldn't really mind all of this if the media would actually dig into the truth- this a a govt with a slim majority, facing criminal proceedings, consolidating their position. This is not some Brexit-consolidating move. Why would anyone even believe that?

Not some, masterly, catspaw move from an adroit politico- she's doing this to distract and disarm, but most importantly- because she [i]has[/i] to, not because she [i]wants[/i] to.

Chewkw isn't the only one with a crystal ball so........
Tories win with significant majority; labour hammered - fail to win any seats but have many losses; libdems up; ukip fail to win a seat and lose support; snp lose a few seats.
Corbyn out - probably losing his seat; reputation in tatters - think michael foot.
Labour in the outer darkness for 10 years as a 'united' party or it splits into moderate and momentum factions - if that happens, wave goodbye to any credible opposition.
Miliband D returns to the fold in 2 or 3 years as putative leader - kier starmer to oppose him; tom watson stays as deputy.
Broadcast media stop using IDS - i associate him with IBS.
Much anguished discussion on STW.
UK becomes more introspective in short term and GE obsessed while trump, kim, xi, putin, tusk and others are focussed on the really big picture(s).
My prediction could be totally ar** about face. Not long to wait.
I mis/dis trust almost all politicians but we're stuck with them - like double glazing salesmen.
Loving all the mud-slinging by minority parties.
I'm not a tory - just a realist.

because she has to, not because she wants to.

DO you reckon the media have failed to mention that? The tiny majority has been discussed repeatedly today and since the election.

I suspect the line on the debate will be "May is too scared to have a debate and yet asks us to trust her in negotiations with Brussels - when she isn't even up to a TV debate".

Real or not that argument, re-written by far better scribes than I, could potentially hit May right on the strong leader card she's been trying to play.

Strategy 101 - attack their strengths not their weaknesses.

Why is May doing it?

I thought the suggestion that it removes the 2019 to 2020 backstop to negotiations and allows her to extend was an interesting point.

Also if as some predict negotiations do not go well, it gives the Tories another two years to try and salvage something.

But my own view, is that May is fundamentally a principle free political opportunist who will say anything to cling to power but can't resist a 20 point lead in the polls. And why not if all you want is power.

OOB why does "tiny majority" remind me of trump?

Give them both a "hand". 😉

Actually the fact that a tiny majority and a number of police investigations underway does suggest political expediency might have been in play.

Get another GE underway before her majority finds itself in the clink.

And finally for tonight, I've met a good number of MPs over the years from Salmond and Steel, to Hendry and Cooper, and in my worthless opinion most, particularly the backbenchers, are honest people trying to do a good job.
Give me 650 people at random and I'll give you few baduns.
But overall, they could be far worse.

My local MP on the other hand... well the GE can't come soon enough.

Most politicians are opportunists, not conviction politicians.
They see an opportunity which will benefit them and they go for it.
This is May looking to kick labour into the long grass.
It is tribal politics in it's most traditional form.
All the noise about brexit is a side issue - nothing more than a distraction.

[quote=H1ghland3r ]Ahh would that it were that simple.. My whole point about her taking advantage of the current political climate to her advantage covers this argument.
PM May isn't stupid, she is well aware that Corbyn's current fragile position would be made completely untenable by his voting against a GE

Of course - it wasn't a particularly serious suggestion. It does highlight the somewhat pointless nature of the Fixed Term Act though. Because if Labour will vote in favour of a GE given the current polls, then it's hard to imagine a situation where the opposition party would vote against one. Of course this does mean that the most interesting result of the Act is that it gives the PM an opportunity to get the turkeys on the other side to vote for Christmas - unless something very unusual happens it is not at all in Labour's interests to have a GE now, yet they're going to be thronging that Aye lobby with enthusiasm, probably including plenty who will not only be losing their jobs as a result, but who know they are about to lose their jobs.

make voting compulsory, like with a fine and so on for not doing it.

lets see the real face of the UK........

For my thoughts on why

Firstly the obvious and cynical combination of things can only get worse and Labour are in a mess.
Regardless of any kind of media hate campaign he just can't express his views in any way that engages with enough people.

Mandates and rebels
In reality she doesn't have one, leaving the EU is one thing hard brexit is a long way from what most people will be comfortable with. She needs to get the weight of an election behind her to keep her own troops in line, if you were voted in under her leadership you can follow for 5 years
Without there will always be threats of leadership challenges

Risks?
40-50 seat swing from Tory to Lib Dem
UKIP returning to safe tory seats

%vote is one things, where those people matter is the other, with a majority of less than 20 some targeted campaigns could unseat a number of freshly won seats especially where Remain voted higher than a Leave member

Youth vote - mobilise it and make a change

bigrich - Member
make voting compulsory, like with a fine and so on for not doing it.

lets see the real face of the UK........

and following up after some more time to think.
Labour have a chance to kick start their campaign today.
The following needs to be asked:
What has changed since A50 was sent?
Why does the PM feel she no longer has a mandate?
Why has the PM reduced the already tight negotiation time by 2 months?

They could even gain some concessions in return for their votes such as a gaurntee that May will appear on a TV debate.

The devisions on the EU still run deep within the tory party, I expect a lot of disapline issues with senior MP's contradicting the policy to save their skins, the chances of them presenting a united front during a campaign are slim.

Why has the PM reduced the already tight negotiation time by 2 months?

They could even gain some concessions in return for their votes such as a gaurntee that May will appear on a TV debate.

"I don't think she can say no without looking weaker than she already does."

The opposite. Incumbents only debate when they are desperate and willing to take a gamble - like Gordon Brown.

Not debating shows she doesn't think she needs to make the gamble. If she joined the debates it would be a sign she was in trouble as it was with GB.

True it suits her to avoid as many questions as possible, turning up exposes the lack of plan, direction and cohesion within her party and means people can challenge the unity (Do as I say) BS she is pedalling.
Strong performances from the others with an empty lecturn dismantling Brexit/Tory facts would harm her.

As much as some of these events are TV spectacle the chance to put a leader up there to answer questions they don't want to where they can't hide should be applauded and the lessons of Trump learned from.

mws +1

The only time an empty chair has done better than the incumbent was the tub of lard on HIGNFY all those years ago

TV debates are American garbage. They need to go in the bin.

make voting compulsory, like with a fine and so on for not doing it.

lets see the real face of the UK........

Please dont, my sister has voted once in 10 years and that was just to cause trouble. #brexshit

torsoinalake - Member
TV debates are American garbage. They need to go in the bin.

The CPS are now saying 30 MPs being investigated regarding the Election Expenses thing?

The CPS are now saying 30 MPs being investigated regarding the Election Expenses thing?

They aren't.

You can't make voting compulsory without providing a party choice for everyone.

I can see the Lib Dems being the big winners from this. A lot of people seemed to switch from Lib Dems to Tories last time just to avoid having Corbyn in power (rightly or wrongly). This time we all know there's no chance of that and people are generally pissed off at the Tories so I can see many voting Lib Dem in order to have some sort of opposition.

I would laugh if the Tories end up losing their majority (they don't appear to have learned the lesson the calling for a risky vote on something can have consequences), sadly it's unlikely to happen.

This election is about two issues, Brexit and Austerity. And Brexit was mostly about a single issue, uncontrolled (or at least perceived uncontrolled) immigration. However now the 'soft' Brexit appears to be we sign up the free movement of people anyway how many people that voted for Brexit last time would vote for 'soft' Brexit (vs no Brexit) this time?

If the Lib Dems grew some balls and stood on the promise of ending Brexit I actually think they could challenge the Tories but it seems they're afraid of the all those that voted for Brexit in the first place and aren't willing to gamble everything on immigration being the main issue so are just backing a 'soft' Brexit now.

I've never voted Lib Dem before but if you gave me a choice between Lib Dems (no Brexit), Tories (either soft or hard Brexit, depends if May has a hidden agenda) or Labour (I don't even think they know themselves what they want) then I'd vote Lib Dem. I think I'd regret it if they actually got into power and it came to forming a government to run the country effectively but hey if the US can give Trump a go we may as well have a laugh to before the world goes down the toilet.

FuzzyWuzzy - Member
You can't make voting compulsory without providing a party choice for everyone.

lets see the real face of the UK........

I think we do, those who don't vote, don't care. Seems about right.

No wonder May is scared of a TV debate, skewered on R4 just now!
Emphasising trade over breaking from ECJ and FOM

It won't matter she'll still win it, even with 30 Tories ( not all of them are MPs, some just party fall guys) potentially under investigation.

She's obviously being helped massively by the right wing press who want to [b]crush[/b] all those who dare question Brexit

I think we do, those who don't vote, don't care. Seems about right

Now wonder May is scared of a TV debate, skewered on R4 just now.

All she did was repeat the same mindless, meaningless platitudes we've been hearing all along. Brexit means Brexit. I'm not expecting that to change during the 'campaign' such as it is. It looks like we're just going to get endlessly repeated soundbites, which basically amount to 'trust me, and don't you worry your pretty little heads over the detail'

No wonder she doesn't want any debate! Theres no substance to any of this. Its either one of two things:

1) They genuinely haven't got a clue what they're doing
2) They know exactly what they're doing. They're going to * us! But they don't want the detail of exactly how they're going to * us to see the light of day until its too late!

Neither is a particularly appealing prospect

On R$ I did like Nick Robinsons paraphrasing the famous Mrs Merton question "what was it about the 20% lead in the polls that first attracted you to the idea of a general election?'

Obviously the Maybot didn't get the reference.

A lot of people seemed to switch from Lib Dems to Tories last time just to avoid having Corbyn in power (rightly or wrongly).

In a parallel universe they might have, not in the UK. Go check your facts on who was Labour leader at the last G.E. and then get back to us.

I swing wildly between an Australian compulsory vote system and one where voters must pass a test that shows an at least basic understanding of politics and current affairs for their vote to count. Far too many people vote based on crass ignorance or unthinkingly on family/community tradition. Far too many voters could give you a more eloquent and reasoned appraisal of their football team's defensive squad options or why a particular person should be voted off X factor than they could give to their choice of where to put their cross. I don't care which way they vote I just want them to do it based on knowledge and reasoning.

I heard some chat on the radio that Heir May "decided" to call the election whilst out walking with her husband over the weekend.

I can just imagine it now, her, her husband and 60 SAS protection staff yomping/goosestepping down a footpath in deepest Chilterns..

I heard it too and it made me swear out loud at the radio. No content, no answers, no conviction, pure opportunism and lies.

The other parties can't win, surely they must see that. The only potential I can see they have to prevent a Tory majority is to form a coalition (or for moderate Labour MP's to defect to LD or a new centre-left coalition-party). But there are supposedly too many 'differences' for that to happen, yet if they can't set those aside it'll truly be turkeys and Christmas, Labour will be decimated, LD will gain seats but nowhere near enough to affect things, and we get May and her odious cronies for the next 10 years.

The odd thing is that there is a core of Brexit voters that will probably find voting Tory to be anathema, and I hope they're just too stupid / stubborn to see that voting for UKIP again will be a wasted vote and potentially risk dividing the Tory support. Alternatively Nuttall doesn't put candidates up in those areas to avoid splitting the vote and UKIP dies on its arse. Neither of which would make me sad.

@bikebouy Snowdonia

@theorherjonv my parents voted Leave, they are lifelong Labour supporters but usually vote Lib Dem as only they can unseat Tories in Hampshire. This time they will not vote at all, can't bring themselves to vote Tory but 100% will not vote Lib Dem due to their stance on EU

I wonder what came to her in that thought that she didn't know a few weeks ago.

It does highlight the somewhat pointless nature of the Fixed Term Act though

It highlights that the name of the act is pointless.

The act still serves a purpose, even if only in principle, in that the decision to call an election is now in the hands of parliament and not solely down to the PM.

I think everyone in the UK should do this test (or similar)

https://uk.isidewith.com/political-quiz

I did it this morning because I had no idea who to vote for, and I was quite surprised at some of the results (not the BNP and UKIP coming in the bottom two though)

Sadly it appears my principles are most represented by the SNP. I don't think they're running for the Cannock Chase seat, but I does help me understand why I want to move to Scotland so badly.

TV debates are a joke, soundbite poltics at their worst. Sturgeon's "I can make you PM" line to Milliband made him look very weak and was a key weapon in Tory campaign as SNP are despised South of the Border. Emails/press from Tories once again are focusing on a Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP as the result you'll get by not voting Tory.

Debates are poison for incumbants, that's why Blair avoided them.

It does highlight the somewhat pointless nature of the Fixed Term Act though

Not at all, the 2/3rds majority clause has always been there

100% will not vote Lib Dem due to their stance on EU

So if the Libdems and moderate Labour coalesced under a flag of 'look, we know we voted Brexit and we have done A50 now so we'll see it through, but not in the hard form 2-fingers up red white and blue **** you all Brussels form that the majority of the country didn't actually vote for.......' - would that change their vote?

It's not about what LD or others really want any more, it's about preventing May and her cronies getting carte blanche to get what they want and tear everyone else apart while doing it. If they can't get what they want, better to have something palatable than all volunteer to eat the shit sandwich that's being prepared.

The only potential I can see they have to prevent a Tory majority is to form a coalition (or for moderate Labour MP's to defect to LD or a new centre-left coalition-party). But there are supposedly too many 'differences' for that to happen, yet if they can't set those aside it'll truly be turkeys and Christmas, Labour will be decimated, LD will gain seats but nowhere near enough to affect things, and we get May and her odious cronies for the next 10 years.

This! Most definitely! But the problem is that Corbs and the rest of the Politburo aren't even prepared to compromise and form a coalition with the 90% of their own party who don't agree with them. Choosing instead to endlessly bang on about 'Their Mandate' from the 6th form.

tactical voting is the only option, in the hope that sone heads might get banged together in the event of anything less than a total disaster for labour, and the Lib Dems gaining enough seats to make a difference (neither is even remotely likely IMHO).

in my constituency, I have an odious little misogynistic, EU-hating racist as a (Tory) MP. He has a majority of under 300. The Lib Dems were nowhere. So a vote for the Lib Dems, which would be my first choice by a mile at the moment, would be a complete and utter waste of time, and would just hand a larger majority to the vile little shyster presently occupying the seat

jambalaya - Member
SNP are despised South of the Border.

prawny - Member
Sadly it appears my principles are most represented by the SNP. I don't think they're running for the Cannock Chase seat, but I does help me understand why I want to move to Scotland so badly.

SNP are despised South of the Border.

They might be in the comfortably-off, flag waving, UKIP inclined home counties. In the (far poorer, endlessly neglected, politically voiceless) North of England, there are a hell of a lot of us who survey the shambles of the present labour leadership, and look enviously north of the border at a credible and competent social democratic party.

Debates are poison for incumbants, that's why Blair avoided them.

jambalaya - Member
TV debates are a joke, soundbite poltics at their worst.

If we are going with landslide is this the party that couldn't get a majority against Brown?
The one that managed a very small majority against Milliband
Or the one that since the last election appears to have alienated a chunk of the population, called the judiciary enemies of the people and strong armed the lords?

That at the very least is a record that should be debated.

So Mrs May why did you or your home sec not condemn the outrageous headlines in the DM? Do you think the Judiciary are important or only when they agree with you?

those "I side with" things are also a joke.

last time I did one of those quizes it suggested BNP and UKIP, on a generally pro-European libertarian ticket, and Green as centre right.

From an esoteric point of view... May's election call is a callous and spiteful move..

I think people were just starting to accept their fate.. Brexit triggered, Trump on the warpath..
I think at the heart of the populace we had just decided to let the meglomaniacs egos steer us through..

It was almost for a second, that in our collective resignation there could be a glimmer of unity..
But it appears that the evil **** had to stir up the devision..

Maybe she's been pressured into this at the brexit negotiation table, but whatever the reason, I cant help feeling that a period of goodwill and restfulness in our society has been cruelly snatched away

I see it as serving two purposes, it'll give her the mandate she needs to sort out the Tory tossers and the rest of the Westminster politico's playing at politics for it's own sake and getting in the way drawing out this awful period of instability.

It should also serves to sort the Labour Party out Corbyn bless him and as much as I like the guy, his integrity etc he is about as useless as the tree huggers in the Green Party that should be all over this opportunity but won't because they are idiots.

Sadly this country needs to be run by a right of centre organisation it was only when Bliar sold the New Labour dream that they were elected and if you don't recognise the need to be in power to get things done the whole effort is pointless.

I don't think it's going to be quite the shoe in she's been told, certainly it should end UKIP but I fear the return of the wishy washys probably at the hands of the nations youf that bother to get up and into the polling booth if they have forgiven the act's of the Godless philandering one.

I watched Newsnight last night as they struggle to overcome the trauma of an actual piece of shock news they were not expecting, had to turn it off I'm bored with it already frankly I'm electioned out.

Sadly it appears my principles are most represented by the SNP. I don't think they're running for the Cannock Chase seat, but I does help me understand why I want to move to Scotland so badly.

Same for me at 93% SNP (not a surprise to me) with Tories at second bottom even lower than UKIP. SNP not standing in New Forest either.

I am also contemplating a move to Scotland but I don't like the cold...

This is a stupid question but when is Trump's State Visit?

Perhaps we've got this wrong, she's not a Machiavellian political genius, she simply doesn't want to be the politician who is strung up from a lamp post for inviting the egit who goosed the queen, which resulted in a backlash which lead to the tory party being consigned to oblivion

[continuation]

..and i know people will say it's too late for that (coalition / combination party). But you know what...right now I'd vote for an idea, of 'we don't know the exact fine details of every policy to make this work but we are all bought in to a general concept of i/ Brexit but a more reasoned variant; ii/ not May.

Sounds daft? If it doesn't work out we can always have (another) election after all. Unlike Brexit where we happily went into it despite no plan and apparently no ability to reverse. Why not?

from about 2:10 in

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08mb5r1

shed flounder badly on TV, all corbyn would have to do is get nick robinson to write his questions

assuming that the electorate believe that duplicity is unattractive in a PM

assuming that the electorate believe that duplicity is unattractive in a PM

You see, that's where I have lost faith in the human race.

[img] [/img]

It now appears to be at best forgivable or at worst an asset.

scotroutes - Member
jambalaya - Member
SNP are despised South of the Border.
prawny - Member
Sadly it appears my principles are most represented by the SNP. I don't think they're running for the Cannock Chase seat, but I does help me understand why I want to move to Scotland so badly.

Just for detail, personally I don't think I identify with the SNP, and I've not been a fan, but that's based on the leaders personalities and not the policies. I think that's generally the problem with the whole country, couldnt we just do away with a prime minister/party leader and just have parliament?

I see it as serving two purposes, it'll give her the mandate she needs to sort out the Tory tossers and the rest of the Westminster politico's playing at politics for it's own sake and getting in the way drawing out this awful period of instability.

The local blazers pick the candidates, Chairman May could well end up with more or less troublesome backbenchers than she has now.

Imagine the headline- May to end in June !!!

The only potential I can see they have to prevent a Tory majority is to form a coalition (or for moderate Labour MP's to defect to LD or a new centre-left coalition-party).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/progressive-alliance-greens-labour-lib-dems-anti-tory-pact-a7689986.html

[img] [/img]

Prawny, Kerley - get in touch with the SNP and offer to stand for them yourself. Bet you'd make the front pages of a few papers at least.

Cameron had an election to shut up his Tories rebels and it went't horribly wrong for him

https://uk.isidewith.com/political-quiz

Sorry if I've missed this but does it mean we will still have an election in 2020 as well? Or does it reset for another 5 years?

Better trails access

TV debates are a joke, soundbite politics at their worst

I would say it depends on how they are conducted. I would sooner have them than not have them.

It's good to see who's had the best media training too 😉

Sorry if I've missed this but does it mean we will still have an election in 2020 as well? Or does it reset for another 5 years?

Resets it for another 5 years - next election will be in 2022, which is 3 years after the expiry of the Article 50 notice.

yeah, i want to vote for the person whose party leader attended the media training course.

HOW TO VOTE TO STOP THE TORIES...........

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_yf4RL133fBKscvSbID4eRKwztzY9KSI_2BMaI1bU8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=0

Bloody hell Kimbers - either you work fast or this is a rehash from the last time....! 😆

FWIW I think the simple answer is that, if the intention is to "stop the Tories" (or at least limit their majority), then just vote Labour.

Which is a terrifying thought (as it will give the hard left loons the sort of legitimacy they really don't deserve.)

My MP is a Corbynista, so whatever vote I cast is wasted....

Not true. For me voting libdem is more likely to reduce the number of Tories by one than voting labour would.

It's about nobbling the other side as well as building your own up.

Well listening to PMQ's its clear how things are going to be for the next couple of months.

When asked to condemn this....

[img] [/img]

She refused, and instead championed the freedom of the press. So I think its fair to say that the Mail, Express, Sun et al just got the nod to do what the hell they like. The nastier the better! Its now open season on anyone who refuses to wave their little flag when ordered to do so!

And every question she was asked, she ignored. Same old, same old. She never answers a question. But now she's armed with a raft of derogatory quotes about Corbyn, mostly made by his own MPs, which she now just parrots instead.

She's also implying that the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems represent an 'Anti-Brexit Coalition'

Well... this is all going to be fun

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My constituency could have been interesting but I think my local tory mp has probably got the right credentials to play the rights cards. A tory safe seat but also a constituency that voted heavily remain. Could have been a LD scalp but the local MP was a staunch and active pro remainer too and has already gone on record locally that voting for him means having remainer feelings represented inside the governing party. The tories would be mad to deselect him as he is the ideal candidate to hold the seat for them.

Pity.

Hark, what's that rumble? It isn't? No, it is... it's the unmistakable sound of migration, as roaming hordes of UKIP voters return to the safety of the fold, back to the protective arms of the vicars daughter.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/media/may-rules-out-tv-debate-because-her-voters-only-like-the-wireless-20170419126280
The Mash sounding more factual than the Mail...

and instead championed the freedom of the press. So I think its fair to say that the Mail, Express, Sun et al just got the nod to do what the hell they like.

It is not for the Prime Minister, or anyone else to dictate what the press should write. That is the point of the free press.

Strangely ( well not that strange actually ) the only successful papers are those of the centre and the right of centre - those to the left only stay alive with a trust fund/rich Russian sugar daddy. Where people have a choice, they choose The Times, Telegraph, Mail - which is why the left hate a free press.

Where people have a choice, they choose The Times, Telegraph, Mail - which is why the left hate a free press.

Sometimes it's interesting to see what people think others do, gives an insight really.

What May could have done is said she didn't agree with the Mail or it's lies and incendiary headlines.

You're right cranberry. We shouldn't set any restrictions whatsoever about the press gleefully whipping up xenophobia, petty nationalism, and seeking to silence democratic dissenters as 'Enemies of the People', especially if they use a thinly veiled nod towards violence.

Because if history has taught us anything, its that that [url= http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/nationalism-continues-to-make-everything-brilliant-2014030684384 ]always ends well[/url]

Strangely ( well not that strange actually ) the only successful papers are those of the centre and the right of centre

and who actually buys newspapers?

People hate the mail for it's lies, it's fabrication, the hypocrisy and the offensive content.

"People"?

It's the best selling newspaper in the UK

Was that really the best photo the Mail could find to use?

Who the hell is it trying to appeal to as an image of power, authority or sanity?

Idiots that may be prone to violence probably.

And the wealthy.

Who the hell is it trying to appeal to as an image of power, authority or sanity?

It's the best selling newspaper in the UK

It's a profitable website due to it's click bait approach and lax attitude to the truth.

However it was right in suggesting Mrs Trump is in it for the cash 😉