MegaSack DRAW - This year's winner is user - rgwb
We will be in touch
encouraging newsnight vox pops in the west midlands
Saw that. It's hard not to get carried away but it was a lot more than encouraging I thought. Even the self declared tory voters thought Corbyn was the better leader and potentially better PM. By any measure that's pretty shocking. They even said they weren't swayed by the security/terrorism issue, and mentioned police cuts and May's record. I'm sure the tories were already sh*tting themselves before that but it won't have made them feel any better.
Whatever the result, things are beginning to change. They can either change fast, on Thursday, or take a few more years. First time I've ever really believed it though
I suspect if/when the Tories win the bonfire of public services and education over the next 5 years will help. Governments always have a finite life. Landslide 2022.
PS any of you lefties want to help - Labour emailed me asking for donations to help fund targetted ads to get young people out to vote. I'm sure any Tory supporters would also approve of getting the youth vote out 🙂
Labour emailed me asking for donations to help fund targeted ads to get young people out to vote.
I got that email too. Definitely worth a tenner. I don't know what the tories are doing (other than accepting donations from billionaires) but labour's online operation is very slick.
I read yesterday that the average Tory donation is £60,000 and the average labour donation is £22.00
It shows who is funding who and therefore their motivations.
I think it will be an overall Tory win but by a very slim margin, not the result I would personally like to see but then I'm in a big city non-Brexit multicultural bubble and only know one person who is likely to vote Tory. It's the thick as shite guillable plebs in the shires who believe everything they read in the gutter press and Facebook who will swing it for them.
Frankly they will get what they deserve. Im amazed anyone who is going to rely heavily on the state and the NHS and is not a medium/high earner (by that I mean below the national average wage or on a zero hours contract) can vote for them?
I'll probably be slightly better off under the tories financially but would rather be part of a society that's inclusive and puts the welfare of many first rather the monied elite.
No youtube vid yet but..
2 facts everyone forgets in election fever.
1) The polls are never accurate
2) It's rare for the public to admit they will be voting Tory.
Really? In this post referendum world I think people happy to admit voting Tory.
Labour will get a solid percentage of the vote, but tries will still comfortably will due to electoral system is my relitively unconsidered guess
Monbiot hits the nail on the head. Whatever the result, things are beginning to change. They can either change fast, on Thursday, or take a few more years. First time I've ever really believed it though.
Agree. Corbyn has done a great job in putting forward a proper Labour manifesto and proved that more people want that than many politicians seem to think (including most of the Labour party themselves!)
In five years time the country will be a mess after Brexit and more people will realise the tory government really are not interested in them (it seems to take people about 15 years to realise it each time)
Put someone like Clive Lewis in as leader with very similar policies and that will do it.
Further. Amazes me the support for Corbyn now. Until the election was called, Corbyn was consistently critised for his values, policies and persona.
Do you not think it's odd that's changed? As I see it, his political party have a wiff of power and are reigning it in because they are thinking about their own jobs.
The whole things a bit mucky and I don't trust Labour one bit to behave themselves under Corbyn after the election. I'd never vote for Corbyn based on the bahaviour of his political party pre-election. I'm not Tory if that's of any interest.
Do you not think it's odd that's changed?
The only thing that has changed is that Corbyn has finally been able to get out there and demonstrate what he is all about. There's nothing odd about it.
It was never his policies that were criticised, before the election, it was that people didn't know too much about him.
If you look back over his history, he is a man of principle who votes and talks what he believes in. Whether you agree with him or not, you can't deny this.
These scenes are not so different from 1st leadership election. He was filling out every venue he went to then with queues around the block.
What is amazing is the intervening years have been a catalogue of **** ups and bad press (some Corbyn's fault, more not) and its still happening.
PLP owe Corbyn a big debt
gratitude, frankly a lot of them should be ashamed.
Given that May has openly said that she's willing to tear up the human rights bill - why are people still gladly voting for her?
Given that May has openly said that she's willing to tear up the human rights bill - why are people still gladly voting for her?
Because a lot of people want the human rights bill torn up. They think human rights don't concern them and will never affect them.
Remember, we are talking about tory mindset here, i.e not giving a shit about anyone else who needs help or protection.
Vote winner for Tories.
As is more homeless, killing disabled people etc.
Because a lot of people want the human rights bill torn up. They think human rights don't concern them and will never affect them.
same thing on the terrorism thread... "no-one wants to read my emails, ergo no-one should care if all emails are read"
It's a very short-sighted perspective
It's rare for the public to admit they will be voting Tory.
The pollsters know this and account for it.
The 'human rights' act doesn't register with a lot of people as actually their human rights. Its lost its meaning. Its been successfully misrepresented as a burden around the average joes neck imposed by the metropolitan elite that gives apocryphal special rules for ne'er do wells, scroungers, criminals and the like. Who wouldn't want shot of that? See also: Europe
Isn't it strange? We've a conservative populist leader who clearly despises people and doesn't want to be grilled by interviewers on television, because she's preparing to be grilled by the rest of the EU and will supposedly come out of it with a really good deal for Britain, that will be varying degrees of less good than the one we currently have and may indeed be disastrous.
They've decided they're going to tax old people to the tune of £100k, they've vowed to continue with austerity measures which continue to kill sick people. Our schools and hospitals aren't funded properly and the Prime Minister sacked 20,000 police in her previous job, while London has seen three fatal terrorist attacks in as many months.
One wonders exactly what the Conservatives need to do to piss people off. If I were a party leader trying to throw an election, this is exactly how I'd do it.
the daily hates out in force this morning
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And some people with intelligence still vote Tory!
Now Abbott's gone.. bit of a surprise that..
I don't think there's been an opposition leader that the press have been so keen to tear down in my lifetime. He's been billed as incompetent and dangerous and people have been made to feel stupid for even considering to vote for him.
Is it possible that in this election we might have more shy Labour voters than we have shy Tory voters?
I do feel quite sorry for Diane Abbott, in so far as I am capable of sympathising with any politician.
But she's clearly not been on top of her brief for some time.
How are the newspapers allowed to get away with such inflammatory reporting and blatant lies?
Looks like I just missed Corbs in Glasgow as I walked to work...
That was 15 years ago! FFS, not like May has 'changed her mind' at all in the past.
I hope all it does is stimulate his supporters to ensure they get their vote out effectively. i read somewhere 1 million new voter registrations, hopefully a lot of young people with a vested interest in their future this time around.
If you look at the Conservative manifesto, they want a "truly free press". I wonder what they mean by that?
We should at the very least compel our press to be impartial and to print retractions on the front page if reports are found to be incorrect or inaccurate.
That's the problem with people. Tribalist knuckledraggers with a projection-bias bordering on personality disorder.
[quote=Malvern Rider ]That's the problem with people. Tribalist knuckledraggers with a projection-bias bordering on personality disorder.
normal people vote tory. I'm not sure why they do but they do.
dismissing/insulting them won't make them change their minds.
normal people vote tory.
'Normal people' (whatever that is) clearly vote all kinds of ways.
dismissing/insulting them won't make them change their minds.
How's that working out for the Sun/Mail/Express?
First the Mail headline is correct - they are in trouble if we don't vote May.
Second, we were discussing Abbott last night. I think she is ill and it's something serious she doesn't want to talk about. It's not just the fumbled lines / maths, her character seems different from the arguments on the pundit shows she used to do. I'm sure we can all think of a few condition that might cause that. If that's right, and it may not be, a lot of Tories are going to look like right gits given what they are saying today.
Any truth in the rumour that May is spending the last day of campaigning in the Ecuadorian embassy?
I've not been paying much attention to TV coverage but I saw her latest interview and thought she looked very obviously ill.I think she is ill and it's something serious she doesn't want to talk about. It's not just the fumbled lines / maths, her character seems different from the arguments on the pundit shows she used to do
[b]they[/b] are in trouble
Nice!
Second, we were discussing Abbott last night. I think she is ill and it's something serious she doesn't want to talk about.
She's now on indefinite sick leave.
normal people vote tory. I'm not sure why they do but they do.
Almost without exception, a majority of people in this country vote liberal/ left.
Need to keep those front page images for the next time someone suggests the mainstream media doesn't have a right wing bias.
Im no natural labourite, but i like Diane Abbott, witty, erudite, principled, entertaining on political TV shows.
Get well soon
Indeed
According to the Met Office, heavy rain in Wales and south-west England will move into central and northern England, then into Scotland and Northern Ireland, followed by showers. The South East may well stay dry.
Damn.
I guess they are saving "Corbyn to Axe the Queen" for tomorrow mornings front page. 🙄
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40184817 ]Some gloom for the left.[/url] Despite everything Kuenssberg still thinks it ain't happening, and she has her ear to the ground.
Looks like I just missed Corbs in Glasgow as I walked to work...
That's disappointing. You could have asked him about trail centres. 😉
molgrips, im resigned to it
on the plus side having seen how badly May has handled the campaign and had so many weaknesses in her past as home sec exposed, its innevitible that theyll make a pigs ear of brexit- she really is crap!, maybe even enough to get a second referendum ? 😉
So your 'best' case scenario now results in Theresa (who opposed Brexit) getting replaced with Rees-Brexit-Mogg 😀
Whoever is in charge of the tories is kinda secondary to their paymasters who will remain the same in either case.
So your 'best' case scenario now results in Theresa (who opposed Brexit) getting replaced with Rees-Brexit-Mogg
Im not sure Id want to see the country run completely into the ground ninfan!
ive been resigned a tory victory for ages, its just been nice watching them panic over the polls!
Actually ninfan, JRM as a Tory leader would be a godsend for all other parties.
Even as PM given I doubt half the Tory party would vote for his policies.
Can't really see him getting in though.
its just been nice watching them panic over the polls!
That sounds like the type of logic currently infecting Paul Mason
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Whereas I would have thought that Labours finest hour involved actually [u]winning an election[/u]!
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Are you getting your gloating in early ninfan? 😉
There's no need. The right whingers are going to win anyway, so you can gloat on Friday. Or is your schedule busy then?
Whereas I would have thought that Labours finest hour involved actually winning an election!
Setting up the NHS I'd expect.
Setting up the NHS I'd expect.
Isn't that the type of thing that you can only do after you win an election?
See the national minimum wage as another example
Yes it is.
Well vote Labour then ninfan.
Just had the usual letter for the incumbent racist ****, he's such an odious prick.
She's not even bothering trying to target undecided voters 😆
https://mobile.twitter.com/theresa_may/status/872410324862939136
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/maps-charts-showing-state-play-eve-general-election/
Majority of about 100.
Towards the top end of Jamba's prediction....
Towards the top end of Jamba's prediction....
Or the bottom end of his previous prediction! That's the thing about predictions, make enough of them and one of them will be right...
Or the bottom end of his previous prediction! That's the thing about predictions, make enough of them and one of them will be right...
I'm fairly sure that the Conservatives will be happy enough with a majority that size. It certainly won't be seen as a victory for Corbyn.
I love the Torygraph's line that May is more trusted on Brexit than Labour.
The weak and wobbly Mrs U-Turn is a better bet on Brexit? Wow.
Someone else has started referring to her as the Tin Lady - which seems apt.
Latest tory party political broadcast
I love the Torygraph's line that May is more trusted on Brexit than Labour.
She is going to be rather deeply in debt to the pressbarons for their assistance.
Wonder what new things she is going to give them to try and get them to maintain the pretence.
no levesson 2 for starters
Have you read through that Twitter feed of Maybot you linked to?
Just wow. 😆
I had to double check it wasn't a joke account. If the replies reflect the mood of the nation..
Brilliant innit?
Agreed. Wow.
Forward it to Chewkw.
@igm just going back to the polling issue and your question. Polling companies are not paid based upon whether the poll truns out to have been correct, they are hired to generate news - oohh tye polls moved / said something surprising, so a bit like England at a football championships the press build them up then knock them down.
@oldnpastit its quite wrong to rely on this "advanced mathematics" the polling companies allegedly use. They don't, its a massive fudge with all sorts of adjustments of the polling data and that data is flawed. I am signed up to a few polling panels and I can eneter what I like, location (for consituency), prior voting history, current intention, even personal detals like ethnicity, age etc. With no underlying data verification any analysis is garbage. Also they are exrapolating from 1-2,000 people to the whole voting population 😯
[b]75-100[/b] 😀
If it does work out that way that's a stunning victory for May from 17 to such a sizable majority. Substantially stronger position for Brexit and an extra 2 years post 2019 to get new deals signed up and working well.
Jamba - my father set up a small polling company once upon a time, and he was one of the pioneers of telephone polls from the academic end. I've worked on polls and with the results of polls in a television studio on election night.
I'm fully aware that polls are there as a news item. Do you also think TV companies stage road traffic accidents?
jambalaya - Member
75-100If it does work out that way that's a stunning victory for May from 17 to such a sizable majority. Substantially stronger position for Brexit and an extra 2 years post 2019 to get new deals signed up and working well.
Well it will be stunning given her abysmal performance but still 50 seats down from your original prediction.
PS - my father also developed algorithms to spot people who were making data up - like people employed by polling companies who just went down the pub and filled in a few forms with their mates. Join all the panels you want reputable companies will weed you out - the pop up polls in the Mail probably won't.
@jambalaya, I think we're saying the same thing. Perhaps instead of "advanced mathematics" I should have said "marketing" ?
75-100
Yep.
1 last night to enjoy the tories sweating the polls ...........
has cranbery gone quiet?, he was all over the corbyn threads gloating about his labour membership, bet he was bricking it when he saw that yougov projection with a 1% difference........
Obviously the manner in which they reflect reality is a factor on whether anyone will pay them for their services its quite clearly their main selling factor, Business use them to poll consumers who is going to pay if they think they make shit up or what they say is totally untrue?Polling companies are not paid based upon whether the poll truns out to have been correct
We would all agree that they are not 100% accurate but neither is your statement
Obviously the manner in which they reflect reality is a factor on whether anyone will pay them for their services its quite clearly their main selling factor,
I don't think it's obvious at all.
What proportion of people read a headline saying "YouGov predicts XYZ landslide" and then actually go back and check YouGov's past polling record (insert name of favourite polling company) ?
People like fivethirtyeight do, and journalists do, but they're not the target audience anyway, so who cares?
Yougov tend to slightly over estimate Labour as I recall.
@oldnpasit it, ok I misunderstood apologies.
it gets 93% of election results right - i am assuming that is broadly right for the winners/the right party- no idea within what % point
Given this the claims they are just writing headlines is BS
the claim they are not perfect/always accurate is correct
jambalaya - Member
I'm offline tomorrow , I'm sure the world will keep on turning
More Tory lies........
😉
Jamba - care to explain to me how polling works again? I wish to be impressed by your universal knowledge.
I'm feeling a little twitchy about comments in an area where my father was one of the UK experts, given he's very unwell at the moment and it isn't going to get any better.