[Closed] Is May about to call an election?

Corbyn's unable to fill shadow ministerial posts, his own MPS reckon he's abysmal.

Two democratic contests were held, and he won both of them. If Labour MPs can't accept that then they should put themselves forward for the leadership, or find something else to do.

The Tory party will do what they always do... exactly what needs to be done. With utter ruthlessness. She'll be gone within the blink of an eye, and forget your Boris or Gove. They'll do what they always do. Expect someone unexpected.

I see this said a lot, that the Tories are good at acting in the interests of keeping power, but is it true? This is the party that elected William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith, and Michael Howard.

I didn't suggest they were any good at it. Just that it's their default position... knife the leader. And I can't see May now delivering anything that would be considered a success, as the initial expectation was an enormous, thumping majority

The Tory party is massively split over Brexit. The sane ones can see it for the folly a hard Brexit would be. They're just keeping quiet about it. Don't expect that to last too much longer

In fact.... Friday morning

Give it a few months and they could be making the present Labour Party look like a picture of unity

I see this said a lot, that the Tories are good at acting in the interests of keeping power, but is it true? This is the party that elected William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith, and Michael Howard.

And Theresa May...

Her campaign has been a disaster right from the off. She's been arrogant and complacent, and the more people have seen of here, the more unpopular she's become.

I can't help but think that a lot of the Tory strategy, in England at least, has been to not campaign. They probably thought that they didn't need to win the election, they could just shut up and let Corbyn lose it. But that doesn't seem to be working...

Someone has been round our way adding Hitler moustaches to Tory posters. Children eh?

(Near work in a strong UKIP / leave area - I've seen plenty of BNP posters round here in the past. Changed days.)

The tories are keeping a lid on it til Thursday but be in no doubt, the civil war over their disastrous campaign and May's rank incompetence has already started. Of course that will be forgotten if they get the landslide they expected but it's looking very unlikely. Assuming she still wins but with a small majority, then watch her supporters in cabinet and elsewhere disappear into the distance. She'll be left on her own to explain what went wrong and muddle along on her own into the brexit negotiations. Then when they go tits-up, she'll be nailed to the wall and one of the nutters (Boris, Gove, Davis, Raab etc) will challenge her, and be opposed by the remainer moderates (Rudd, Hammond, Morgan etc). And all this against the backdrop of a newly united and invigorated labour party. Funny how things might change eh?

I can't help but think that a lot of the Tory strategy, in England at least, has been to not campaign.

In my ultra-marginal constituency (Con majority: 300) thats exactly what we've seen. The odd thing about May being Strong and Stable, but that was it. The local Tory candidate (an utter ****!) has been absolutely invisible, while the Labour party have been campaigning energetically, specifically on local issues - the closure of local NHS walk-in centre, downgrading of A&E - which are hugely unpopular, and play very badly for the Tories.

Well that's all changed. The Tory's have belatedly entered the fray on a local level. But it whiffs of exactly what it is.... arrogance and complacency. It's got 'PANIC!" written all over it. And I'm just hoping that people deliver a suitable verdict on being taken for granted and treated like mugs

Counterfactual: If Ed Balls or David Milliband were Labour leader with a sane shadow cabinet May would lose by a landslide.

Disagree. Dave quite possibly; Balls no. Man was a pretty appalling shadow ed secretary and has done little else I can think of to recover his career.

Binners, do you think it'll swing back to Labour?

I can't help but think that a lot of the Tory strategy, in England at least, has been to not campaign. They probably thought that they didn't need to win the election, they could just shut up and let Corbyn lose it. But that doesn't seem to be working...

Given the massive lead they had at the beginning of the campaign, I'm sure you're right. The tone of the Tory press is also instructive: they were initially all about the saintly Theresa, now they've switched strategy to throwing mud at Corbyn. It seems to me that even the likes of the Daily Mail accepts that TM is no good.

Binners, do you think it'll swing back to Labour?

Not nationally. I think she'll get a majority. How big? Who knows? But it won't be the mahoosive numbers they were predicting a few short weeks ago. I can definitely see them losing northern marginal seats like the one I'm in, while gaining others now the Kippers have returned to the fold. Though don't presume they'll alll be voting Tory. A lot of those were former Labour voters too.

So its all up in the air really. God only knows. Tory central office certainly doesn't. it thought it did a couple of weeks ago

In my ultra-marginal constituency (Con majority: 300) thats exactly what we've seen.

My parents live in Ramsbottom. The Tory MP was canvassing on their street a couple of weeks back but they've not seen any other activity since then. Sadly for them, a tory neighbour put him off visiting my parents, just as my dad was preparing his tirade.

t seems to me that even the likes of the Daily Mail accepts that TM is no good.

I wonder who they have waiting in the wings to replace. Not that they have any influence of course in this democratic country of ours....

Not nationally.

I meant your own constituency. Seems likely to go back Tory.. I'm even hopeful for us with our 2000 vote Tory incumbent.

I've just realised who Theresa May reminds me of.. Dolores Umbridge in Harry Potter. She starts out smug and self satisfied and slowly gets more and more wobbly as the wheels start to come off!

You have rampant speculation and the short sighted idea that you can fix everything with guns and prisons like an ape swinging a rock.

Coffee everywhere!

😆

Ferrals
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Now you've said it...

I can't help but think that a lot of the Tory strategy, in England at least, has been to not campaign.

Maybe they're just not campaigning in the areas where you are?

That might be because it's a constituency, or area within a constituency, where the law of diminishing returns applies, much better to concentrate on the more fertile areas, try and 'get out the vote' in the rural and fringe areas rather than the towns that there's little point expending effort in

Echo Binners remarks, local Tory is nowhere to be seen in Hebden, and see very few banners for anyone other than the Labour Candidate. Calder valley Tory win last time was 3,500. We've had Corbyn here, got to get a target seat, current mp is an idiot

http://www.ukpolitical.info/Expenditure.htm
With the funding available it's interesting if they are not contesting. Given it's being reported and that they are not being out in a held seat with a 300 majority - does that mean they have accepted a loss there?
Very strange decisions there.

Even in Cheam that **** Scully hasn't been in for his photo opportunity and there's not one vote tory placard anywhere.

Gloves seem to have come off Corbyn 😯

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/05/jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-resign-police-cuts?CMP=fb_gu

the local labour party are pushing the #wheresiain hashtag to try and find our invisible MP

http://newsthump.com/2017/06/05/uk-hasnt-done-enough-to-tackle-terrorism-says-woman-whose-job-it-was-to-tackle-terrorism/

However, there was almost immediate confusion, when Corbyn’s spokesman sought to clarify the remarks, saying: “Jeremy is saying he believes the public will judge her on her record. We have an election on Thursday where there is an opportunity to vote in a Labour government for the many not the few, one that will invest in police and security services rather than cut them.”

Is that really confusion? JC thinks she should resign, but also that the GE is the best time to deal with it.

Mind ewe, are police cuts TM's fault? Presumably she had to reduce police numbers because of the budget allocated to the Home Office. If the foreign office budget had doubled, would we all be saying she was great?

If the foreign office budget had doubled, would we all be saying she was great?

her list of failures at the home office werent just in the name of austerity, abu quatada deportation farce, westminster paedophile investigation, go home vans, repeatedly pledging & failing to cut immigration....

Her incompetence goes well beyond 'just following orders to reduce the size of the state'

Is that really confusion? JC thinks she should resign, but also that the GE is the best time to deal with it.

Mind ewe, are police cuts TM's fault? Presumably she had to reduce police numbers because of the budget allocated to the Home Office.

Presumably she had to reduce police numbers because of the budget allocated to the Home Office.

She seems to elicit a great deal of sympathy from whoever was responsible for that then....

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Which raises the interesting point of how many allies May has within the party. Answer = none. There are a lot of people sat behind her who would dearly love to stab her in the back.

If she fails to deliver this originally predicted thumping great majority, as now looks likely, she won't last 5 minutes!

There are a lot of people sat behind her who would dearly love to stab her in the back.

It's only fair, given that Osborne was responsible for getting her into cabinet in the first place and got thoroughly knifed by her.

If she fails to deliver this originally predicted thumping great majority, as now looks likely, she won't last 5 minutes!

Boris.

How about she should have resigned for what the cuts have meant.

Ok, I guess that's the confusion they're talking about. Man's a complete clown, a five year old could have got that message out without ****ing it up.

Ok, I guess that's the confusion they're talking about. Man's a complete clown, a five year old could have got that message out without ****ing it up.

I think he knows exactly what he said

its kept the debate on May getting rid of 20k police officers and whether thats made us all less safe

Ok, I guess that's the confusion they're talking about. Man's a complete clown, a five year old could have got that message out without ****ing it up.

3 months ago called, they want their 'Jeremy Corbyn is a hopeless joke' posts back.

They are starting to look more and more silly with every TV appearance and every new poll that comes out

At home, we will reverse the cuts to our emergency services and police. Once again in Manchester, they have proved to be the best of us. Austerity has to stop at the A&E ward and at the police station door. We cannot be protected and cared for on the cheap. There will be more police on the streets under a Labour Government. And if the security services need more resources to keep track of those who wish to murder and maim, then they should get them.

I think he knows exactly what he said

its kept the debate on May getting rid of 20k police officers and whether thats made us all less safe

It's got to be said, as rope-a-dopes go it's quite impressive. Corbyn has had May hook, line and sinker

If there was no election on would Corbyn be making the same call?

probably

So just to get the arguments out first...
All polls are rubbish
It doesn't matter that a poll had them 20 points up and now within margin or error
Polls are important and then when seeing she was 20 points up she called an election and is now bricking it

If she fails to deliver this originally predicted thumping great majority, as now looks likely, she won't last 5 minutes!

Boris.

You think Boris, post-referendum, has that many friends sat behind him either? He had his chance, was outsmarted, on account of being a clown, but more significantly, a treacherous ****! So he has now been permanently sidelined. I expect that he'll be back to being a journalist before too long, because his front bench days are numbered, whatever happens. You think he'll be a foreign secretary by the time the real brexit hardball starts? Not a chance! Neither will the other 2 buffoons!

I reckon the next Tory leader will be someone we've barely heard of. Someone untainted by the present post-dave Brexit/throwing away the biggest poll lead in electoral history shambles

This ^^^^^^

IME the majority of British people want a right wing dictatorship lite, once you get past the bullshit nicey nicey live and let live front. Making the right noises in public and seeming reasonable is so quintessentially British, one hand on the shoulder the other taking the kidneys out.

It's all about quietly ****ing someone else over.

I reckon the next Tory leader will be someone we've barely heard of.

There's a dearth of political talent on all sides ATM.

Talented people (Chukka?) just can't be arsed to endure high office.

I blame the press for making the life of all candidates miserable, plus the expenses crackdown. Expenses was the back door way to pay MPs a decent salary, now they just don't get a decent salary and quality candidates just go into the private sector.

I don't see any of this changing any time soon.

now they just don't get a decent salary

Yeah, the poor lambs start out with three times the average wage, then add on generous expenses and a gold plated pension. It's a wonder they survive.

There's a dearth of political talent on all sides ATM.

Talented people (Chukka?) just can't be arsed to endure high office.

I blame the press for making the life of all candidates miserable, plus the expenses crackdown. Expenses was the back door way to pay MPs a decent salary, now they just don't get a decent salary and quality candidates just go into the private sector.

I don't see any of this changing any time soon.

or imagine, politicians who actually have conviction and beliefs rather than a career path after a select few public schools followed by doing PPE at Oxford/Cambridge...

politicians who actually have conviction and beliefs

You mean like Hannan, Raab and Rees-Mogg?

Had the radio on all day today. All I've heard is stuff about police numbers, failures to follow up leads, and in a couple of reports a comparison of May's 'enough is enough' soundbite to 'brexit means brexit'. Even Laura Kuensberg has put the boot in. You'd assume that something like this would play to the tories strength, and Corbyn's weaknesses, but as with other issues, May is doing a great job of highlighting her shortcomings.

What station?

Sounds rather interesting if the BBC have chosen to run with that.

Yeah, the poor lambs start out with three times the average wage, then add on generous expenses and a gold plated pension. It's a wonder they survive.

The PM earns less than some of our (not even top) sales guys. Despite what the sales guys would have you believe I imagine the PM (and MPs under him/her) have rather more responsibility, plus a much shorter career.

Not a chance would I take on that level of responsibility for that money.

I imagine the PM (and MPs under him/her) have rather more responsibility, plus a much shorter career.

You're quite right: ex-PMs are often to be found grovelling in the dole queue.

Looks like Corbs is getting the hang of this campaigning lark:

He argues the election is about what kind of country you want to live in. "Do you want a government that will say to Donald Trump: 'You're wrong about climate change?'" he asks.

"I'll say that to him."

Cashing in on anti-Trump sentiment whilst at the same time being truthful (as it's not hard to be anti-Trump).

The PM earns less than some of our (not even top) sales guys. Despite what the sales guys would have you believe I imagine the PM (and MPs under him/her) have rather more responsibility, plus a much shorter career.

Not a chance would I take on that level of responsibility for that money.

Any idea how much Tony Blair charges for a speech or consultancy as a direct result of having been PM?

Sounds rather interesting if the BBC have chosen to run with that.

Was on radio 5. Just been in the car and they were still talking about it. Seems like labour are winning this one by keeping the focus on police cuts rather than Corbyn's supposed weakness on security. Of course they've been enormously helped by May effectively trashing her own record in the home office by saying not enough has been done. No doubt that's her arrogance and complacency showing again, they think all they have to do is say something and no one will scrutinise or question it. That may have been true before the campaign but not now.

Any idea how much Tony Blair charges for a speech or consultancy as a direct result of having been PM?

So you are saying that people are willing to pay more to hear him speak (with no consequence) than some are for him, or anyone, to lead a country....

Eh?

I'm saying that any PM is paid bugger all for the level of responsibility they have. Compared to after dinner speaking, footballing etc.

OK, and I'm saying that being PM opens up lots of money-making opportunities - it's not just about the salary they get paid while in office.

You mean like Hannan, Raab and Rees-Mogg?

While I don't agree with the likes of Rees-Mogg, I have respect for the fact he appears to have principles and beliefs that he sticks too rather than what he thinks would advance his career.

Just about sums up this election campaign.

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Here's maybot in a dark warehouse earlier today. http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/15329378.Why_was_Theresa_May_hiding_from_the_voters_in_a_dark_warehouse_on_the_edge_of_Edinburgh_/?ref=fbshr. And Ruth Davidson selling her soul to the maybot. Take a look at @AngrySalmond's Tweet: https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/871765683364921346?s=09

[img] ?oh=6462754d4be035e56c462b226a50da93&oe=599FB43C[/img]

My god dazh that is seriously embarassing.. feel sorry for the poor woman.

It'll be an absolute travesty if she wins though.

How they presented the scenario in Daz' bottom pic in most of the media:

[img] [/img]

lol shes on a bus trip round britian giving speeches to the same 40 people.

I'm going to have a punt on May not being the leader of the Tory party by the weekend

I'm going to have a punt on May not being the leader of the Tory party by the weekend

She'll be gone within six months whatever happens.

Unlikely the leader of the winning party will stand down?

Unlikely the leader of the winning party will stand down?

she'll cling on and ride the brexit elevator all the way to the bottom, dragging us all down with it

I'm going to have a punt on May not being the leader of the Tory party by the weekend

Good idea. Think I'll take a look at the odds. Not saying it's the probable outcome but worth a punt.

On Saturday I took 9/1 at the bookies on Labour winning the most seats. Looking around various forums and listening to what people are saying about the different parties, leaders and policies it actually didn't seem that much of a long shot.

After all, the bookies and the polls have been wrong on both Brexit and the US election in the last 12 months.

With a large spread in the polls it means a lot of uncertainty.

Bookies odds are as much about risk to the bookies as the probability of the event your betting on.

Unlikely the leader of the winning party will stand down?

I am not sure she will be given a choice in the matter. Might take 6-12 months but unless she pulls something rather impressive out of the bag the plotting is going to be underway. Particularly since there is no real way of keeping all the factions happy. Her persona of capable leader is badly damaged and various people will be thinking about another leadership contest.

kimbers - Member

Here's maybot in a dark warehouse earlier today. http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/15329378.Why_was_Theresa_May_hiding_from_the_voters_in_a_dark_warehouse_on_the_edge_of_Edinburgh_/?ref=fbshr.

I mentioned this on the Corbyn thread, but last week I literally just bumped into him in the street, walked up and had a wee friendly chat with the man, and so did anyone else that wanted to. He had a crowd about the same size as May's invited audience there, who just turned up while I was watching- actual civilians. No vetting, no minders, no fluffers, no closed doors, no cameras. The contrast is ludicrous.

Are you lot still doubting PM May? 😆

It's over - my vote has been settled (my mum received this the other day)

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ninfan - Member
It's over - my vote has been settled (my mum received this the other day)

@ninfan - if that's the quality of election literature on tyneside....i'm moving back! 😆

Interestingly my 96 year old grandmother in law is planning on voting labour for the first time in her life, solely because she doesn't trust May on the dementia tax. A few others in her WI group are saying the same. Talk about alienating one of your core voter demographics!

I will be surprised if that doesn't lead to less votes that it appears. I think a lot of older people just won't vote as they can't vote for tory dementia tax but can't see life long/old tories switching to another party.

polls still all over the place 1 pt in it for Goodmorning Britian, 11 pts for the Guardian.

@ninfan

I'm a bit worried. I looked at that and thought - actually some of those policies aren't bad, it's just that it's riddled with phrases like 'we will work towards' and 'we will work to make this so'

and then I realised - so are everyone else's, just on better paper.

(apart from Brexit, which doesn't seem to have quite such a defined plan but at least it has a more refined set of colours 😉 )