[Closed] Is May about to call an election?

The big question is does this leave sufficient time for Russia to hack the system and influence the result?

I think they would only do that if their candidate needed assistance.

Could be true, but equally May could easily just have thought their majority is pretty slim right now and so getting a lot of pressure from within. So go win a decent majority and you have much more freedom to do what you want, without having to pander to disruptive factions within your own party.

Whatever way you look at it, electorally things aren't going be any better for the Tories than they are right now. Lots of risks and unknowns ahead. It's a smart decision.

Tom_W1987 - Member

Has Corbyn suffered a major TBI to his frontal lobe? He's saying that Labour will vote in favour of a general election!

What's he supposed to do? Vote to keep the tories in? Say "we won't win so we won't support it?". I think he basically has 2 options- support it, or say "too short notice".

How does postal voting work on these timescales?

Well this gives me an ideal opportunity to sweep in the LD candidate who is mostly sane and - importantly - not a conservative.

Let me just check the incumbent tory's majority - just under 20,000. Might be a bit of a stretch. Whatever happened to proportional representation? Oh yeah 😉

I think it is more how enthusiastically they switched to supporting it as opposed to even just going for a free vote on it.
That and their utter incompetence with regards to electoral reform.

They were the smaller party by some margin, which limited their firepower foe change. Going the other way, there's this from the ConDemNation days: https://whatthehellhavethelibdemsdone.com

Whatever way you look at it, electorally things aren't going be any better for the Tories than they are right now. Lots of risks and unknowns ahead. It's a smart decision.

Unfortunately I agree.

😥

The big question is does this leave sufficient time for Russia to hack the system and influence the result?

They're already inside the system, TM gave them access in exchange for backing Brexit....

How does postal voting work on these timescales?

Putin has already cast it for you 😉

Tory majority? - pretty much.

Brexy majority? - interesting. Not necessarily and it trumps the June 23 vote.

Ah well. Democracy moves on.

May knows she'll get an election, you cannot credibly vote against one as an opposition party, it's basically surrendering.

She's clearly called it for a stronger mandate on Brexit. No-one will be able to say that she's an unelected leader anymore, and she will use that mandate to drive through a hard Brexit.

With no credible opposition she knows that she'll win, unless EVERYBODY who voted remain votes for the Lib Dems, which is unfortunately not going to happen.

Tory majority? - pretty much.

Brexy majority? - interesting. Not necessarily and I t trumps the June 23 vote.

Tory majority = Brexit majority.

Your only hope was the opposition getting its act together, and I'm afraid that ship sailed quite some considerable time ago.

She's clearly called it for a stronger mandate on Brexit. No-one will be able to say that she's an unelected leader anymore, and she will use that mandate to drive through a hard Brexit.

With no credible opposition she knows that she'll win

Yup. We're humped.

ION I just tripped over this, the voting figures from 2015.
Makes for interesting reading.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results

Tory majority = Brexit majority.

Given here explanation for the snap election, very much this. If they get a majority then the public has backed a 'Hard Brexit'.

Insane though it may be.....

Good take on it here:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/18/general-election-coup-mps-theresa-may

Theresa May has turned democracy against itself. She has been seduced by the siren evidence of the 20-point lead in the polls, and she will have a general election, the one she said again and again that she would not call. And it will almost certainly return her with a thumping majority that will allow her to run the Brexit negotiations just as she wants.

There will be no obligation on her to reflect the views of the minority position. She will leave the remainers of England disempowered. She has made a Scottish referendum inevitable, and a border poll in Northern Ireland infinitely more likely. She is resetting politics in a way that will entrench division. We will all rue this day.

Brexit, the gift which keeps on taking (hope away).

The LDs did so badly last time around that the only positive possibility I can see is that they pick up a decent amount of seats, and the Tories end up with a similar or slightly larger majority.

Sadly, this is probably a Cloud Cuckoo Land suggestion too.

martinhutch - Member

Tory majority? - pretty much.
Brexy majority? - interesting. Not necessarily and I t trumps the June 23 vote.

Tory majority = Brexit majority.

Your only hope was the opposition getting its act together, and I'm afraid that ship sailed quite some considerable time ago.

The best hope long term against Brexit (or getting it substantially reversed at some point in the future) is demographics - put simply Brexies will die sooner.

It's just a bonus if the electorate returns an anti-Brexit Commons.

footflaps - Member

There will be no obligation on her to reflect the views of the minority position. She will leave the remainers of England disempowered. She has made a Scottish referendum inevitable, and a border poll in Northern Ireland infinitely more likely. She is resetting politics in a way that will entrench division. We will all rue this day.

This seems like the most likely outcome. Good short term politics, disastrous long term, but who cares about anything past the next election? It's the "three brexiteers" strategy writ large- clever tactics, no strategy.

footflaps - Member
There will be no obligation on her to reflect the views of the minority position. She will leave the remainers of England disempowered. She has made a Scottish referendum inevitable, and a border poll in Northern Ireland infinitely more likely. She is resetting politics in a way that will entrench division. We will all rue this day.

yeah this is where we are heading

and as pointed out the LD's lost 50 seats at the last election, how do the people who voted that way feel now 2 years in? Do they feel like that change was a good thing? Happy with what they got?
The tory majority is not currently huge and they are going to have to spend a lot of time promising Hard and Soft Brexit at the same time.

Kimbers - How's that pound doing now ?

Could see the Lib Dems pick up a fair few seats from remainer Tories I think. And votes (possibly not seats) from anti-independence scots too.

I would [s]piss[/s] shit my pants [s]laughing[/s] if Corbyn was PM

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1Y
20c lower than 12 months ago, thats the important impact on the economy

best bit of Mays speech...

At this moment of enormous national significance there should be unity here in Westminster, but instead there is division.

[u][b]The country is coming together[/b][/u], but Westminster is not.

who is she trying to kid?

cranberry - Member
Kimbers - How's that pound doing now ?

not sure, how much is a jar of marmite?

cranberry - Member

Kimbers - How's that pound doing now ?

It has soared to a 2 month high. So still ****ed.

The best hope long term against Brexit (or getting it substantially reversed at some point in the future) is demographics - put simply Brexies will die sooner.

It's just a bonus if the electorate returns an anti-Brexit Commons.

Wow some bizarre logic here, demographics don't suddenly change so no chances of a reversal anytime soon.

As for an anti-Brexit commmons, that could only come with a Lib Dem supported by a rag tag nationalist collective. Never going to happen.

Can someone please reassure me that Alan Sugar hasn't got time to run for [s]president[/s] prime minister?*

*hell of a lot more chance than Jezzer winning it.

Oh well, Ill be fine - lots of emaciated Northerners will be appearing on Red Cross tv adverts looking folorn, surrounded by their own shit and flies in a year or two though.

It's almost worth voting Tory for actually...

Wow some bizarre logic here, demographics don't suddenly change so no chances of a reversal anytime soon.

Edit..
We also need people asking each candidate what their views on Brexit are, what they stand for, what their red lines are and what they want from it.

kimbers - Member

not sure, how much is a jar of marmite?

Don't eat it, what's your best price on custard? 💡

[img] [/img]| https://thumbsnap.com/r7AfLCfa [/img]

I want them to revoke the magna carta, put us back on the groat and reinstate the feudal system.

the challenge is to harness the angry youth into a probably pro EU party

The challenge is getting an angry youth. Most are not bothered enough to get angry and certainly not bothered enough to go and vote.

The challenge is getting an angry youth. Most are not bothered enough to get angry and certainly not bothered enough to go and vote.

Ah, they are angry enough, unfortunately will vent their spleen on Facebook and forget to bother doing the thing that might make an impact, like voting.

It'll be interesting how the UKIP vote might pan out. Hopefully they will just disappear int the ether, I suspect in Con strongholds that might be what will happen. Will be interesting the more Labour heartlands that voted to leave whether they disappear or get emboldened. Can see them sneaking the odd seat in the North which will just sum up how much of a shambles Lab are at the moment.

It'll be interesting how the UKIP vote might pan out.

[img] [/img]

theres one of several reasons May chose to break her early election promise now

still aaron banks is standing against carswell, hopefully both will be utterly humiliated

Ah, they are angry enough, unfortunately will vent their spleen on Facebook and forget to bother doing the thing that might make an impact, like voting.

Corbyn and May don't represent or understand them.

Yay! I'm all for a General Election.

I know who I'll be voting for, it will not be for the BullshiteBrexshiteSelfPromotingMorons.

It's about time we all reverted to an Intellectual Political System.

I think Brexit will be a non issue. It's going to happen, even the Lib Dems are only talking of tempering it.

Let's concentrate on the real issues. With Brexit happening regardless, what are parties going to do about affordable housing, job creation, the NHS? How do we get people to turn out and vote, rather than return to the lethargy of previous elections? How do we stop the media droning on and on for 7 weeks and boring people into apathy?

Thinking about it, Labour could refuse to back the Tories and deny the GE.

The Fixed Term act was implemented to stop parties calling GEs for party political reasons rather than in the best interests of the UK.

Labour have sided with the Tories they have shown that they will not stop Brexit but simply seek to ensure their supporters do not lose out.

The Tories are calling an election for purely party reasons and not for the greater good.

kimbers - Member
best bit of Mays speech...

[b]The country is coming together[/b], but Westminster is not.

who is she trying to kid?

It's about time we all reverted to an Intellectual Political System.

We have an Intellectually Deficient System.

[img] [/img]

http://newsthump.com/2017/04/18/theresa-may-announces-snap-annihilation-of-the-labour-party/

http://newsthump.com/2017/04/18/theresa-may-hands-uk-another-opportunity-to-highlight-how-stupid-it-is/

[img] [/img]
[img] [/img]
[img] [/img]
[img] [/img]

So which one is it?

think Brexit will be a non issue

I don't think I've ever heard those words in that order before!

With potential candidates like James Cracknell surely the Tories have it in the bag? 🙂
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/north-korea-handle-obesity-james-cracknell_uk_58f5e84ce4b0da2ff862f758

We're in a weird situation at the moment, I don't think any (relatively) sane politician would want to be PM for the next couple of years. The economy isn't actually flourishing and Brexit is just going to make things worse (at best) at least in the short run. Anyone that is PM through Brexit won't get re-elected afterwards. I'm not even sure any of the 3 main parties want to be in power at the moment either, again you're just going to end up stained with fallout from Brexit.

It would have been better if she'd called this before triggering Article 50 and left it up to the parties to to make it a manifesto commitment whether or not they'd continue with Brexit, although I'm not sure where that would stand legally given the referendum has already happened. I might be wrong but I would guess a party could get elected on the basis of not triggering Brexit now the facts about the repercussions are better understood.

Anything to avoid giving May an open mandate to do whatever she feels like. I don't care whether the Lib Dems or Labour have the best personalities or not, this is about sending a strong message to May.

If she wants to use the GE to strengthen her Brexit position, then we shouldn't let it happen.

Of course the unpleasant bit is that under our wonderful voting system it only needs a 30 odd percent vote to end up with a majority government.

We thought 52/48 was a bit rough.

[img] [/img]
(via [url=

on FB[/url])

although I'm not sure where that would stand legally given the referendum has already happened.

The referendum had no legal weight whatsoever

The referendum had no legal weight whatsoever

Burn him for defying the will of the people!

So 7 weeks of political comment in the media by the commentators who got it so wrong last year?
Joy.

as slowldman says - the crappy first past the post system means the referendum % split won't translate into GE results. Can only foresee a fairly depressing outcome, as much as i'd like to see a shock result. It is also depressingly good timing for May, being able to kill labour and UKIP and deliver us all into hard Brexit fantasyland free of troublesome opposition/accountability.

SO, as Brexit will be the main theme of the election, surely it should be the 2017 General Br-election?

EDIT - Also, won't a GE get in the way somewhat of the already tight Brexit negotiations deadline?

I think STW is going to need some more diskspace!

Also, won't a GE get in the way somewhat of the already tight Brexit negotiations deadline?

Yup - that's exactly why Mrs May swore blind we wouldn't have one...

Yup - that's exactly why Mrs May swore blind we wouldn't have one...

bet we dont hear a peep from Jezzer for the next 7 weeks.

mrchrispy - Member
bet we dont hear a peep from Jezzer for the next 7 weeks.

Maybe she means to "bring together [the Labour party in] Westminster" as she recognises they're bloody useless as an opposition under Corbyn and she really is acting in the best interest of us all? They'll either forget their differences and fight the election instead of each other or they'll wait till after, (hoping he doesn't get his seat returned to make their job easier) and have rid after their dismal GE performance.

*maybe someone spiked my coffee.

I've never felt so disenfranchised. 😥

What effect do we think the £10 min wage policy will have?

A lot of people are on minimum wage, that's a big fat increase.

martinhutch - Member
It's about time we all reverted to an Intellectual Political System.
We have an Intellectually Deficient System.

POSTED 1 HOUR AGO # REPORT-POST

That mans a chuffing idiot. Here is no intellect in that man whatsoever.

Odd you chose a pic of IDS.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/theresa-may-announces-last-election-20170418126203

bikebouy - Member

martinhutch - Member
It's about time we all reverted to an Intellectual Political System.
We have an Intellectually Deficient System.

POSTED 1 HOUR AGO # REPORT-POST

That mans a chuffing idiot. Here is no intellect in that man whatsoever.

Odd you chose a pic of IDS.

Quoted for later lols. 🙂

Something a friend just mentioned,

If he loses the GE (as is likely), Corbyn will have to stand down won't he? Hard to lead a party after failing an election.

@molegrips it will mean a lot people will lose their jobs sadly. And a lot of people who need care in the home won't get a visit.

Give the lady some credit she has man balls in those designer handbags and Corbyn would like them back.
Abbot for NO11 😯

Indeed cougar, the PLP actually stand to be the biggest winners out of this.

I've never felt so disenfranchised.

+1

😥

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/theresa-may-announces-last-election-20170418126203

Not quite as ridiculous as it sounds.

Sure, we'll have elections, but the effective gerrymandering of the UK by allowing Scotland to be dominated by the SNP means that, unless there's a Labour-SNP alliance (over Nicola's dead body etc.) and no Scottish independence (over Nicola's....) then England and Wales could be moving neatly into the next phase of permanent Conservative governments.

And, for so long as Labour is in dissaray the Conservatives will be able to call elections whenever they wish and we'll continue to return Conservative governments.

Now, for many people this would be ideal (Conservative voters, generally). But for everyone else, unless there's either a fundamental reordering of English and Welsh election boundaries or a move to a lasting Lib-Lab (+ others maybe) pact, it will be a long difficult journey into an unchecked Conservative future.

So, if you aren't a Conservative voter, you may have to vote for Corbyn however much you hate him. Voting for minority parties will only dilute any opposition to May.

I think the last couple of decades of fluffiness will finally be thrown off - every one for themselves...!

@molegrips it will mean a lot people will lose their jobs sadly.

Hmm.. maybe, but maybe not. Not sure it's that clear cut. For example, care homes are funded by councils which get money from government, right? If the min wage goes up to £10ph then that would the in-work benefit bill, surely? so that money saved could pay for the care workers salary increase.

It might drive inflation up though.

I've never felt so disenfranchised.

So at what point do people start taking more direct action / setting off bombs? A genuine question given the apparent pending tory Dictatorship.

If the min wage goes up to £10ph then that would the in-work benefit bill, surely? so that money saved could pay for the care workers salary increase.

You assume that the savings to central government will be passed to local government. I would using all evidence, suggest, not a hope in hell. Yes Min wage will rise and care homes will then shut because they can't pay it, it will be put down to local government incompetence and inability to manage their budgets.

ourmaninthenorth - Member

unless there's a Labour-SNP alliance (over Nicola's dead body etc.)

Nicola'd be pretty happy with that but many English voters don't like the idea of Scottish people having influence in parliament so it's a vote-loser for Labour. According to some, it was the critical vote-loser in the last election. Though maybe largely because Ed Milliband made such an incredible arse of the issue- it was easy to spin it as "The SNP will be in charge" because it was obvious Ed wasn't in charge of his own lunch money by that point.

You assume that the savings to central government will be passed to local government

I think they would have to.

A policy like this has some big implications that need to be dealt with.

unless there's a Labour-SNP alliance (over Nicola's dead body etc.)

It was Labour who refused to consider a coalition with the SNP, not the other way around.

it's a vote-loser for Labour

+

It was Labour who refused to consider a coalition with the SNP, not the other way around.

You're both quite right. I meant it in the current context of Sturgeon striking out hard for independence - the SNP won;t want to risk their own dilution at home when pushing for national self determination.

But nonetheless, the likelihood is currently low, even though Labour do need the SNP (and would therefore have to offer a 2nd referendum, and by doing so shoot themselves in the foot).

Unfortunately, I live in a Tory stronghold. I'll be voting Lib Den based on their pro-EU stance and excellent campaigning on local issues. Labour are essentially non-existent in my part of the world.

it will mean a lot people will lose their jobs sadly.

"many English voters don't like the idea of Scottish people having influence in parliament"

ITYM people in general don't like the idea of nationalists in government.

it's a vote-loser for Labour

What the hell, just add it to the list of other vote losers for Labour

I still find it incredible that they persevere with Corbyn.