- Very long and protracted blocking of strait of Hormuz, sending oil price much higher (as in $200 per barrel)
Your list is already happening.
I doubt that the price of oil will continue to rise as quickly. People won't travel, will WFH, and industry will slow as people tighten their belts leading to lower energy needs.
Boots on the ground will end Iran's current leadership, but it's what fills the vacuum that bedevils outside interference. This was demonstrated by Iran as it is now, caused by the US!
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/18/middleeast/us-toppled-iranian-government-before-hnk-intl
Perun is required viewing ATM
I heard bits of his latest rant on the radio.
He did not sound "himself" I think the strain is taking its toll ....probably a very bad thing.
I bet Putin his having a nice single Malt tonight..grrrr
Trump and Hegseth should go full Titanic at the bow of the first escort vessel.
You know, lead from the front.
This was demonstrated by Iran as it is now, caused by the US!
And supported at the time by the Islamic revolutionaries that ultimately ended up in charge. While it doesn't excuse the actions at the time of either the US or UK govts, that the current Iranian govt use it in their own propaganda is somewhat disingenuous
Where's chewy when you need him?
*What way/if his name? @chewk?
Be fun to have him here.... Same gunner for@johnyhive or whatever his name was.
Didn’t take long for a big public burn to happen, Diaper Don’s gonna need large tubs of aloe vera to sooth it! 🤣
This was demonstrated by Iran as it is now, caused by the US!
And supported at the time by the Islamic revolutionaries that ultimately ended up in charge. While it doesn't excuse the actions at the time of either the US or UK govts, that the current Iranian govt use it in their own propaganda is somewhat disingenuous
Were they the same Islamic revolutionaries?
It's true that the CIA and SIS used Iranian media and clerics to disseminate propaganda in the lead up to the 1953 coup against an elected PM.
The current theocracy use the coup as evidence that you can't trust the US and why wouldn't they? The coup wasn't about Iran and Iranians. It was about oil and a Cold War win over Russia
Boots on the ground will end Iran's current leadership,
I don’t think the US is prepared for that. If it was part of the plan they’d be in the region by now. Marines are coming from Japan so we’re obviously not in plan A.
Boots on the ground raises the US casualties by an order of magnitude and that is politically hard - killing foreign girls in a primary school is awkward but killing soldiers needs a solid justification.
Joking aside, I am beginning to think that this will become A Big Deal for for the global economy. As in, Covid-sized big deal. I just can't really see any way this could end other than:
- Huge humiliating climb-down by Trump
I think this is the most likely - it won’t be a climb down in his head - he will declare victory and bring everyone home. Nobody can say he is wrong - because he never actually defined meaningful objectives.
I think if us gas prices reached over $6 a gallon the previous option has to happen… …otherwise, ironically, Trump might end up being responsible for US Car use reduction!- Very long and protracted blocking of strait of Hormuz, sending oil price much higher (as in $200 per barrel)
probably happens to a small extend before option 1.- US boots on the ground in Iran
What else could happen?
He is 79, clearly struggling mentally and physically. And that’s assuming natural causes!
I don't think the US are at all prepared for putting troops in Iran. I think the analysis that Israel and the US have probably degraded Iran's Air Defences and Air Force to the point of non-existence seems to be accurate, but the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan should be front and centre*
*Even as I wrote that, the idea that Hesgeth would pay any attention to the experience gained in those mis-adventures, is, of course, a non starter.
They aren't and they dont have anyone in the region, or even the things they need to bring the stuff they need. There's the marine expeditionary force but that's likely to be used to seize some tankers or maybe raid some islands.
There was an interesting interview with an Israeli commentator on Channel 4 news last night, that confirms what we all know anyway... that Trump is being led by the nose by Netanyahu.
He said that this isn't a war, this is two separate wars with very different set to aims. He said that the first war is Americas war and this is aimless and confused, with no plan, strategy, endgame or even any idea what it is they're even trying to achieve.
The other war is Israels war which is the opposite in that it is very focussed and is absolutely clear what it wants to achieve - a neutering of not just Iran but also its proxies in the region and, of course, its usual territorial expansion. It looks like they're planning on occupying areas of Lebanon on a long term basis, rather than this being a quick incursion. All the time while driving the Palastinians out of the West Bank while everyone's looking the other way.
This is why Netanyahu has completely ignored Trump requests and is just carrying on with his plan, regardless of what else is unfolding. He must be laughing his tits off that Trump hasn't just been dumb enough to do his bidding in Iran, but is now doubling down to try and draw in all the other NATO powers to also do his dirty work for him too.
Israel also doesn't give a toss about whether any oil makes it through the Straits of Hormuz or not.
I'm quietly impressed at how Starmer is dealing with all this nonsense. The scars from Iraq clearly run very deep in the Labour party, and more widely in the country. Badenoch and Farage are on very dodgy ground with their gung-ho chest-beating. How ironic would it be if staying out of the Iran war and pissing off Trump turns out to be the catalyst for a Starmer revival?
I'm not so impressed.
Compare the response of Germany's leaders to the UK's:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/16/europe-donald-trump-strait-hormuz-iran
Compare the response of Germany's leaders to the UK's:
TBF, Germany has a very different approach to foreign conflicts that Britain has had in the past - especially where the US and the Middle East is involved. Diplomatically, Starmer's response is about as hard a rejection as a UK PM can be.
I'm not so impressed.
Compare the response of Germany's leaders to the UK's:
Its almost as if one had the confidence of being part of a large economic block which gives it the heft to stand up to a bully, while the other was a small island, now very much on its own in the world and worryingly dependent on the whims of said bully?
Looks like Israel's Operation Ethnic Cleansing is about to enter phase 2 in Lebanon, now they're done with flattening Gaza
I like to dip into https://www.navylookout.com/if-called-upon-what-assets-could-the-royal-navy-send-to-the-gulf/ once in a while. Looks like we have the square of bugger all to send anyway.
I'm not so impressed.
Compare the response of Germany's leaders to the UK's:
Not really, the two countries have different vulnerabilities regarding the US.
Boots on the ground will end Iran's current leadership,
I don’t think the US is prepared for that. If it was part of the plan they’d be in the region by now. Marines are coming from Japan so we’re obviously not in plan A.
Boots on the ground raises the US casualties by an order of magnitude and that is politically hard - killing foreign girls in a primary school is awkward but killing soldiers needs a solid justification.
Unfortunately, it doesn't matter what any advisors either think or would do. President Trump just does stuff for which there was no plan, A or otherwise.
Recriminations from "sources" continue to appear in the media, suggesting that advisors are seeking distance between them and President Trump who is talking about his "surprise" at attacks on the Gulf States and shipping, “I was very surprised"...“the biggest surprise I had of this whole thing."
I don't think the US are at all prepared for putting troops in Iran. I think the analysis that Israel and the US have probably degraded Iran's Air Defences and Air Force to the point of non-existence seems to be accurate, but the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan should be front and centre*
*Even as I wrote that, the idea that Hesgeth would pay any attention to the experience gained in those mis-adventures, is, of course, a non starter.
Precisely!
Some one-liners from around and about, all widely reported:
- Saudi Arabia has opened the taps on its east-west oil pipeline so that shipping can load at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, rather than navigating the Strait of Hormuz. We really don't need the Houthis to kick off now in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait
- Diesel prices have passed $5/gallon in the US
- President Trump is considering delaying the US-China trade talks scheduled for the end of the month.
- Iran is making overtures to China offering safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Both moves 3 and 4 are seen as attempts to involve China, possibly with a view to mediation.
“I was very surprised"...“the biggest surprise I had of this whole thing."
The only person on the planet actually surprised that the Iranians would deploy the greatest piece of leverage available to them?
Mind you he was previously expressed surprise that they hadn't just capitulated at the mere sight of a couple of aircraft carriers, so we're not dealing with a strategic genius here.
Its still quite staggering that a man so stupid can unleash the biggest military in the world on what would appear to be a personal whim, with absolutely no consultation with anyone, against all sane advice, with no plan whatsoever other than "lets bomb the shit out of them!"
Looking at maps may not be his strong point. But when your chief advisors are your estate agent golfing pal, a former fox host and your son-in-law its probably understandable.
But when your chief advisors are your estate agent golfing pal
Hah – reminds me of the Comic Strip Presents episode "War".
As everything is going so well in Iran, his goldfish-like attention span has moved on to starting his next war.
Surely someone is going to take the mad orange bastard out before this all gets even more out of hand?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/donald-trump-can-take-cuba-oil?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Mind you he was previously expressed surprise that they hadn't just capitulated at the mere sight of a couple of aircraft carriers, so we're not dealing with a strategic genius here.
To be fair, four years ago his pal from Moscow thought they'd just drive their tanks to Kiev and everyone would say "thanks". Perhaps the only good thing from this is China must be thinking, "Taiwan might be harder than it looks".
once in a while. Looks like we have the square of bugger all to send anyway.
Brittania not really ruling the waves.
The decision to reduce the number of Type 45s from twelve to six looks increasingly short sighted. Using the 3:1 rule for active ships, it means during normal operation the RN will have 2 Destroyer available, but this ignores upgrades and refits which take hulls out of operation for years at a time. So we end up having a single ship that had to be rapidly outfitted before it can put to sea and another five in various stages of docking and maintenance or full-on refit.
Mind you he was previously expressed surprise that they hadn't just capitulated at the mere sight of a couple of aircraft carriers, so we're not dealing with a strategic genius here.
To be fair, four years ago his pal from Moscow thought they'd just drive their tanks to Kiev and everyone would say "thanks". Perhaps the only good thing from this is China must be thinking, "Taiwan might be harder than it looks".
I think that China is thinking Taiwan might get expensive and reduce trade opportunities. We'll just rattle sabres and keep our economy running
Brittania not really ruling the waves.
We're not at the heart of an empire any more. Ships are one thing, crewing them is quite another; in 2023 recruitment was about 3/4 of requirements and more people apply to leave than to join
Ukraine and Iran are doing a pretty good job without a navy
Quarterly figures released by the MoD show the number of trained sailors and marines in the RN declined by about 1.1% in the last 12 months. Although this sounds insignificant, this amounts to about 220 people, equivalent to the crew needed for two Type 31 frigates. Recruitment is improving, but the legacy of shortages continues to impact the frontline. https://www.navylookout.com/royal-navy-recruitment-up-but-trained-strength-goes-down/
Ukraine and Iran are doing a pretty good job without a navy
On the other hand, as I was forever being told when I joined the RNR an eternity ago, we are a maritime nation which brings in 80% of its trade by sea, and we live in an environment where eg. cutting undersea data cables is a thing.
It’s a scandal that we’ve delayed orders for ships past the point where the existing fleet is falling apart, that the Type 32 order to increase numbers hasn’t happened, and that we’ve run down the Royal Fleet Auxiliary making it harder to deploy the ships we’ve got.
Diplomatically, Starmer's response is about as hard a rejection as a UK PM can be.
Saw a post earlier tiday that said Trump didn't understand that a Brit saying "I'll need to consult my team" is the equivalent of "****, no!" which made me chuckle.
Ukraine and Iran are doing a pretty good job without a navy
On the other hand, as I was forever being told when I joined the RNR an eternity ago, we are a maritime nation which brings in 80% of its trade by sea, and we live in an environment where eg. cutting undersea data cables is a thing.
It’s a scandal that we’ve delayed orders for ships past the point where the existing fleet is falling apart, that the Type 32 order to increase numbers hasn’t happened, and that we’ve run down the Royal Fleet Auxiliary making it harder to deploy the ships we’ve got.
I agree with you, unfortunately crewing has been a problem for a few years.
A lot of Atlantic data cables run across the Irish continental shelf, which isn't adequately resourced
Saw a post earlier tiday that said Trump didn't understand that a Brit saying "I'll need to consult my team" is the equivalent of "****, no!" which made me chuckle.
He obviously doesn't understand the difference between what British people say and what they actually mean. We'll have to add Starmers answer to this list....
Boots on the ground raises the US casualties by an order of magnitude and that is politically hard
... and made harder by Hegseth's very public proclamation of "no quarter". I'm sure any prospective "boots" are loving that...
Leaving aside that the "no quarter" thing, if followed, is a war crime under international and US military law. But then, this is the muppet that wants no stupid rules of engagement.
It’s a scandal that we’ve delayed orders for ships past the point where the existing fleet is falling apart, that the Type 32 order to increase numbers hasn’t happened, and that we’ve run down the Royal Fleet Auxiliary making it harder to deploy the ships we’ve got.
The problem all organised militaries have is they are always preparing to fight the last war. When the threat comes from unorthodox routes, they are not quick to adapt.
Leaving aside that the "no quarter" thing, if followed, is a war crime under international and US military law. But then, this is the muppet that wants no stupid rules of engagement.
There were some so far uncorroborated reports on social media yesterday that some parts of the military were starting to push back against illegal or unconstitutional orders, but not seen anything from a reliable source.
I'd like to think that the rest of NATO refusing to join in will make enough think it's not worrh ending up on an ICC arrest warrant.
The problem all organised militaries have is they are always preparing to fight the last war. When the threat comes from unorthodox routes, they are not quick to adapt.
I’m not sure that’s as true as all that, often they’re set up for what’s perceived to be the biggest threat.
This is how we came to be fighting what was to all intents and purposes a colonial amphibious campaign with a fleet optimised for Atlantic ASW.
There were some so far uncorroborated reports on social media yesterday that some parts of the military were starting to push back against illegal or unconstitutional orders, but not seen anything from a reliable source.
I'm not surprised. Without a retraction, though, the issue doesn't go away - Iran will feel justified in acting in line with what the US have said they are going to do, whether they do it or not.
I think it's too late for that. Iran's just not going to engage with (at best) the US or (at the worst) any western nation for the forseeable. Even if the US stops bombing them, says sorry and goes home, could you trust them not to do the same thing again if Bibi convinces the Shitgibbon it will get him a third term?
Hell, even if he gets the boot or impeached, would you trust a US that could easily elect someone that as easily compromised?
Trump has now said that the tanker captains should 'show some guts' and take their (now uninsured) ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
So that'll be Mr Bone-spur, 5 time draft-dodger, telling someone to sit on a massive container full of highly flammable material which would then be attacked by missiles, mines, torpedo's, drones and fast attack ships.
Just like he'd definitely be prepared to do himself, renowned as he is for his selfless courage
The Trump administration's top official on counterterrorism has resigned from his position, citing opposition to the war in Iran, and urged the president to "reverse course".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg4g66r3z40o
The Trump administration's top official on counterterrorism has resigned from his position
he is a Fuentes supporting ultra right winger though. He's resigning because he thinks Israel is pulling Trump's chain, not because an unlimited new war with Iran is a "bad thing" in of itself.
Came to post the Joe Kent story from the NY Times report.
He may not be a woke leftie tofu knitting libtard, but the very fact that people like him are coming out and saying the US should not be attacking Iran or doing Israel's dirty work is at least encouraging.
I wonder if the wider Republican fold are circling to sacrifice Trump before the mid-terms, as their only chance to avoid losing both houses and risking impeachments and investigations.
He's resigning because he thinks Israel is pulling Trump's chain, not because an unlimited new war with Iran is a "bad thing" in of itself.
Should have said that the NYT report talks about his opposition to the war and Israeli influence as two separate strands
but the very fact that people like him are coming out and saying the US should not be attacking Iran or doing Israel's dirty work is at least encouraging.
You understand that Fuentes (and his supporters like Kent) are anti-Trump because he's not fascist enough for their tastes? Fuentes has pointed out the obvious to the MAGA crowd, they (the Republicans) own everything, the Supreme Court, the Executive and and the Legislative, they should've banned opposition parties by now, and created the Christian supremacist 'forever' govt. That they haven't, as far as Fuentes is concerned means that he can't/won't support them.
Kent resigning is a good thing only because people like him shouldn't be anywhere near the govt in the first place.
I wonder if the wider Republican fold are circling to sacrifice Trump before the mid-terms
Given how Trump and his mob reacted to being defeated in the 2020 election, it would be interesting to see how he would respond to an internal coup before the mid-terms.
Listening to Trump talking shit right now. How the Irish PM has not walked out of the room I do not know
He says: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea.
"In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!"
Latest outburst - full on toys out of pram toddler.. 🤣
Latest outburst - full on toys out of pram toddler..
What time tomorrow will he be asking for help again?
Probably on TRUTH tonight.
Anyway, he's declared Newsom as POTUS... so perhaps he's seen the writing on the wall already.
Anyway, he's declared Newsom as POTUS
Yeah, I have seen that video – it's surprising it hasn't been picked up more widely by news outlets (I haven't seen it on BBC or The Guardian).
So that'll be Mr Bone-spur, 5 time draft-dodger
How DARE you!
He is known to have fought incredibly bravely in the 1812 - 1815 conflict with Great Britain. 
One of those medals he wears with pride is the hugely prestigious, "Neatness and Order" medal. He went on to receive that twice in his military career in fact. Have you?
Have you ever held the thin orange line at 8am in the morning making sure your bed is the epitomy of neatness under the withering fire of a pillow fight?
No you haven't. No you haven't.
I think they've stopped worrying about when he "misspeaks" because he says enough crazy stuff that he actually intended to say.Anyway, he's declared Newsom as POTUS
Yeah, I have seen that video – it's surprising it hasn't been picked up more widely by news outlets (I haven't seen it on BBC or The Guardian).
Have you ever held the thin orange line at 8am in the morning making sure your bed is the epitomy of neatness under the withering fire of a pillow fight?
No you haven't. No you haven't.
The truth? you can't handle the truth !
I think they've stopped worrying about when he "misspeaks" because he says enough crazy stuff that he actually intended to say.
Everything seems to work in his favour. If you're downright evil, then also being useless is just ignored. If any other world leader made that kind of mistake, every news outlet would be chortling along with the clip. Still, let's wait and see if any evening news picks it up tonight... with the attacks on Newsom over dyslexia, I suspect they will.
Everything seems to work in his favour. If you're downright evil, then also being useless is just ignored. If any other world leader made that kind of mistake, every news outlet would be chortling along with the clip.
Ian Dunt made that point in his newsletter this week. If Obama had threatened to invade Greenland, or many of the other ridiculous schemes Trump has come out with, the markets (and press) would have gone insane.
But Trump gets a level of discretion and leeway that no other world leader gets, literally because he is senile and incompetent.
It’s all about expectations innit? If we’re not all bartering with rats in a post-nuclear wasteland then we’re better off than we thought we’d be.
Give it a few weeks though….
Trump has now said that the tanker captains should 'show some guts'
No one has the balls to say that if the USS Gerald Ford was incapacitated by a mine, it would be a very bad day for the entire US military; the effect would last for decades. The US as the global force would be completely ruined.
We can only hope that they believe it will
I've found trumps military planning on Instagram 
No one has the balls to say that if the USS Gerald Ford was incapacitated by a mine, it would be a very bad day for the entire US military; the effect would last for decades. The US as the global force would be completely ruined.
The orange ****s tantrum over Europe not sending minesweepers, because the greatest military in the world doesn't have any , i wonder how close we are to him having a flipout and forcing the US navy to send ships through?
oh it seems we are closer than i realised
https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3mhboza75jk2s
he's not going to back down, my armchair prediction, those marines take kharg island easily, but logistically its very expensive to keep them there, at least 1 US or Israeli ship gets incapacitated by a drone, America bombs the shit out of the iranian coast , but even as the Iranian leadership collapses, its impossible to stop drone launches.
Sweet baby Jesus and the orphans, we’ve reached the point where even someone as dense as Kemi Badanoch has realised she’s been on the wrong side of history on this one.
Anyone heard from the man-frog recently. He seems to have gone awfully quiet of late. Maybe he’s on holiday in Clacton? Or Mar-a-Lago
As zelensky said today, their sea drones have managed to keep the Russian black sea fleet either sunk or a long way away.
The Iranians only need to get lucky a few times to have a massive effect. With only 6 miles of maneuver room, there is not a chance in hell that the us navy commanders will take anything big through there
This from the Guardian just now. He is literally like a toddler who’s just shit himself and nobody has run to change his nappy. He’s absolutely pathetic! If the MAGA faithful were capable of embarrassment, they surely must be feeling it now?
In an earlier post on his Truth Social network, Trump also called out Japan, Australia and South Korea for saying they would not be sending warships. “Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer ‘need,’ or desire, the Nato Countries’ assistance _ WE NEVER DID!” he wrote.
“Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea.”
So that’s prettt much everyone now who’s told him he’s on his own. Payback time for being such an utter ****!
No one has the balls to say that if the USS Gerald Ford was incapacitated by a mine
Who needs mines when you can have a laundry room fire.
Its off for repairs in Crete which I am sure will make the locals happy since I assume a few drones will be inbound shortly afterwards.
wow a non accidental laundry fire!?
https://bsky.app/profile/blackballer.bsky.social/post/3mhbxiqyirc2j
Beer is still under £4 a pint in my local so it's not all bad!!
When I was in the UK start of Jan a pint of Essex Boys was £3.90. a few weeks later that was put up to £4.10.
Landlady came in and she got boooed by the locals.
Surely it takes more than a laundry fire to incapacitate an aircraft carrier. They do have their own fire systems so they can put it out and continue