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Imminent collapse o...
 

Imminent collapse of the banking system and global economy again?

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I don’t see your point

Successful regulation isn't about HMG having to step in as a matter of urgency to save a bank and a UK business sector.

"SVB and Signature accumulated risk and made dangerous decisions about how to manage that risk. They did so in part because of greed and incompetence – but were allowed to do so under faulty supervision and in a weakened regulatory environment that you helped to create." Senator Eliazabeth Warren talking about Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell

Which US bank will be next to collapse?


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 8:05 pm
 Drac
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I watched The Big Short again last night, the bad leading and CDOs which some seem coming and sold short on during the 2008 collapse is an eye opening. Having watched a few times I feel I openly speak about this, I still have very little understanding of it all.

I hope we don’t see a repeat of this, the bank collapse not the film, as it had a global and devastating effect.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 8:11 pm
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Once in a lifetime headwinds

Nah, that was the Talking Heads, but you could ask yourself well, how did I get here?”


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 8:51 pm
tthew and thepurist reacted
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First Republic Bank - smallish - just had 30bn cash injection from Bank of America, Goldman & JP Morgan.
This resulted from a run on the bank.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 10:18 pm
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Successful regulation isn’t about HMG having to step in as a matter of urgency to save a bank and a UK business sector.

Are you confusing regulation (what the regulators do to protect retail customers and the market) with governance (how the bank runs itself)? The SVBUK and SVB regulatory interventions look very successful so far. It's not a regulatory failure just because regulators respond.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 10:50 pm
 rone
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We're still in the fall out from COVID, and the reaction of stupid central banks. They reacted under pressure from the political system to solve the problem with raising rates.

The USA is coming back from Q/T with a sneeky form of Q/E.

The establishment will do absolutely anything to keep the financial sector capitalised whilst workers are starved of money. Always remember the same form of Q/E could simply 'pay' for the lack of money the government goes on about when it comes to the public spending.

But they don't, they prefer bank hand outs.


 
Posted : 17/03/2023 9:03 am
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 rone
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Big day for the Fed today. After last week’s knock about and government bail / deposit guarantee (I love how it's basically Q/E but they're jumping through hoops to obfuscate) – all eyes are on the Fed for whether there will be a raise of .25 or 0, or even .50 but that's unlikely.

It’s an interesting one because if the aim of the Fed was to damage or slow the economy out of inflation then in theory there’s a chance they do 0 in reaction to last week. Let’s see if hawkish or dovish.

Watch equities fly if 0.

Not sure where this leaves the real economy currently.


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 7:33 am
 rone
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Won't a drop in rates signal a loss of confidence in banks?
Equally, a rise in rates might be too much for some banks so leave rates well alone for now?


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 8:23 am
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But if they don't put rates up, that probably indicates that they know something that we don't. And if they do put rates up, it means that it's worse than we thought. And if rates go down, it's a desperate attempt to salvage the situation, because we're in desperate straits. And if rates don't go down, it's because they are scared of the market response.

Basically, whatever you think, it's already worse than you thought, and whatever decision is made, just shows it's even worse than that.


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 9:09 am
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Should I buy Barclays at 140?


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 9:26 am
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😆


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 9:26 am
 rone
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Inflation up today in the UK.

It's not a surprise if you understand upping rates increase the price level and adds money at the top end.

If they'd just left the damn rates where they were it would have been transitional as energy supplies/market level out.

They're hanging on to this useless lever of interests rates. It's an absolute rubbish way of controlling the economy. But monetarists like their capital and think government spending causes inflation.

They're obnoxiously stupid.

And I agree now they started this thing is made a mess of the macro picture. Up or down now will be a shock to someone.

Inflation is a measure of people defending their position in a market. And at the moment as usual is pushing against the low paid consumer.

If you've got interest bearing assets you're doing okay compared.


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 9:28 am
 rone
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Should I buy Barclays at 140?

Lol general advice appears to be simply sit on your hands during volatility.

Today's Fed will be interesting.

0.25 priced in. Anything else will be interesting

I've never known the western economies be so split between possible outcomes.

I'm mean the US is actually doing very well on metrics due to government spending.


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 9:30 am
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It’s not a surprise if you understand upping rates increase the price level and adds money at the top end.

They'll be really surprised when they realise that most companies write in an "inflation + x%" term into contracts, which of course has absolutely nothing to do with feeling inflation.

I’m mean the US is actually doing very well on metrics due to government spending.

As someone who spends a lot of time in the US, my subjective opinion is that they are underreporting inflation rates, particularly on food. The tipping culture also disguises things a bit because it allows a fudge in prices to be hidden - the default gratuity is now 23%. It's insane how much it costs to eat in the USA now.

The government stepped in to squash fuel prices, again creating a falsely low overall figure.


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 9:46 am
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@rone, @thegeneralist, they are 147.26p to buy, so i'd go for it :0)
7.25p dividend, 8p this year decent return with an upside potential,


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 11:43 am
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If you believe the conspiracy theorists then a downfall in the current banking system is necessary to bring in a digital currency which could be programmable in conjunction with digital ID to control what the population buy or don't buy with their money. Same across the Western world and already happening in China. Yet all we hear about on the BBC news is the Gary Lineker or Boris Johnson (or insert other current distraction) sideshow.

Still, it's all a big conspiracy - right?


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 3:54 pm
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If you believe the conspiracy theorists

No


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 4:01 pm
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If you believe the conspiracy theorists then...

...COVID led to a unitary global government, microchip implants, and a world where the government will control every journey by live logging it in an app.

Instead, we've gone right back to being as thick and disorganised as we were during COVID, albeit with a few sanitizer bottles lying around like yesterday's vuvuzelas.


 
Posted : 22/03/2023 4:39 pm
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