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HS2 spiralling cost...
 

HS2 spiralling costs

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On Saturday I used South Korea’s high speed line (KTX) to get from Busan in the South to Seoul in the North

I hope you're prepared for the return journey...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Train_to_Busan


 
Posted : 16/10/2023 10:09 am
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hope you’re prepared for the return journey…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Train_to_Busan/blockquote >

Still looks better than the average Friday night Euston to Glasgow service.


 
Posted : 16/10/2023 10:20 am
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Just to pour more scorn on the politics of it, selling the land back is very short-sighted. It won't raise much cash and really sabotages the route northwards if it's ever rekindled in the future.


 
Posted : 16/10/2023 8:04 pm
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Megaprojects (simon whistler) takes the piss out of the HS2 **** up


 
Posted : 24/10/2023 6:05 pm
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and really sabotages the route northwards if it’s ever rekindled in the future

That’s the plan.

There were two options.

- Put hanging the North out to dry (not just HS2 to MCR, but also HS2 to Yorkshire and the new East-West line that have all been abandoned since the Tories won elections promising they would be happening, not least Sunak campaigning in his constituency positively for them to win his own seat) into a manifesto, allowing opposition parties the chance to campaign against that move at a general election.

- Shelf all this while in office, going against your own wining manifesto, and then salt the earth along all three routes… knowing that it’s very difficult for opposition parties to campaign on reversing your decision as they have no idea ‘till they get into office (if they ever do) whether it’s still possible, at what cost, and at what new timescales.


 
Posted : 24/10/2023 6:24 pm
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I think re-selling the land miscalculates the benefit + support of HS2 going northwards.

It also had cross party support from the outset, so little political gain.

It would've been better to make planning permission easier to obtain. Make a better case for the environmental restitution afterwards (ie less tunnels) and manage the project more effectively.

Quite a good video above - the additional costs of adding a few miles 'whilst you're there' (ie going to MCR) are way lower than packing everything up and coming back another time. We do it with roads, why not rail?


 
Posted : 24/10/2023 9:27 pm
kelvin and kelvin reacted
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I think re-selling the land miscalculates the benefit + support of HS2 going northwards.

They've already largely ****ed that by downgrading Euston from the originally proposed 11 platforms (10 in use, 1 contingency) to 10 (zero contingency) to 6 (far fewer trains altogether).

And then ensuring that Euston won't be operational for another decade and everything will be terminating at the not-a-terminus station of Old Oak Common.

[img] [/img]


 
Posted : 24/10/2023 9:36 pm
kelvin and kelvin reacted
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Is it so bad if the terminus is at Old Oak Common? I mean obviously it would be better if there were a Zone 1 terminus but OOC is on the Lizzie Line and other lines.

I know this would cost hundreds of millions (and still be less than Euston) but could you have an HS2/Elizabeth Line junction so HS2 could run through Lizzie Line tunnel? Or is rolling stock, signalling, everything totally different?


 
Posted : 24/10/2023 10:29 pm
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Completely different trains and spec plus the Elizabeth Line is already running about 1 train every 6 minutes, maybe even more at peak times, there isn't the space to put anything else through that line.

It's already overcapacity as well, I think the forecast was something like 3m journeys per week average and the record on it so far is about 4.2m. It's performing way better than expected (although some of that has come from journeys being switched from Central Line).

Proof that if you build a decent new railway it'll encourage people to use it but...

This is the other problem - terminating at OOC forces anyone who wants to go into London to change onto the already packed Elizabeth Line. It won't cope with the extra passengers arriving off an HS2 service every half hour.


 
Posted : 25/10/2023 9:24 am
Murray and Murray reacted
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Bugger.


 
Posted : 25/10/2023 6:05 pm
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Well I never. Government in "doesn't have a clue" shocker.

Standard Tory - knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.

https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/07/government-does-not-understand-how-hs2-will-function-as-railway


 
Posted : 07/02/2024 5:41 pm
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We’re going to spend 100 billion quid on this thing!

Brilliant! What’s it for?!

Erm…. Dunno really. We’ll probably find some use for it though…. Possibly…


 
Posted : 07/02/2024 6:25 pm
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It's Amateur Night every time with these despicable morons.


 
Posted : 07/02/2024 6:29 pm
kelvin and kelvin reacted
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FFS.


 
Posted : 07/02/2024 8:29 pm
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It’s Amateur Night every time with these despicable morons.

I don’t want to make this into a re fighting of the Rishi Sunak thread, but did you see how stiff and wooden he was on that party political broadcast?


 
Posted : 07/02/2024 8:36 pm
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On the plus side, Manchester Mayor Burnham is generating support for some kind of additional rail link Manchester <--> Birmingham. This is on the basis that something is better than nothing.


 
Posted : 07/02/2024 9:44 pm
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Aye, I wonder if this is a gambit to force a government (or at least opposition) rethink.


 
Posted : 07/02/2024 9:47 pm
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I don't think it's a bluff. Extra capacity up North is desperately needed, especially around Manchester.


 
Posted : 07/02/2024 10:50 pm
kelvin and kelvin reacted
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Not wishing to support the Tory government, but they dont have much to do with HS2, apart from allowing them money. The Government have little to do with the planning, clearly they are in overall control, but they couldnt give a toss about it, so just sub it out to the Civil Servants in the DfT, who just havent got a clue, and then they advise the Government on what should be done. These Civil Servants will still be in their post when Labour get in, and still carrying on their useless management of the railways.

The problem with the northern sections of HS2 have been known for many years. The trains will be longer than current trains, the doors will be further apart, so it is not possible to use some current stations without either new stations, or extending existing stations. The longer coaches mean more people can fit in, but then it will take longer for them to get on/off, adding to extra platform time needed, thus delaying other services behind them, which means less trains, as they will be timetabled for 2 minutes in a platform rather then one minute. They wont have any tilt facility on the WCML, so will run slower than existing trains, adding congestion on the section north of Birmingham, and reducing the ‘paths’ available for existing trains. Add in the ridiculous requirements the DfT have made for the new build trains - fastest trains in Europe, but that will only be used between London and Birmingham and loads of other stupid price increasing things, and you can see a bunch of people without a clue have put this together without any thought of integration onto existing track which was always going to happen from day one, they were never going to build a new line to Edinburgh or Glasgow, which would have been the sensible option to reduce journey times for a decent distnace, not just the 120/200 miles to Brum/Manc.

And in a similar vein, have you wondered why your train is packed with double the amount of people on it that seats available. It’s because the DfT are trying to cut costs, so have withdrawn hundreds of trains. TPX is regulary packed between Manc and Leeds, yet they have withdrawn 13 full trains from that route last December. These trains are less than 10 years old, in great condition, yet are stored in sidings with no work. CrossCountry withdrew all of their HSTs last years, not through lack of demand or reliability of them, they were told by the DFT to get rid, and run their services with less trains. Of course, this hasnt gone well, and they cannot cope, so cancel services. Many of those trains are now either in service in Mexico, or on there way there, perfectly serviceable, but not wanted by the DfT here. Dont blame the train companies, they are told what to do by the DfT, who want to cut costs, yet there is now no capacity to increase passenger numbers, as we havent got any spare trains to carry them. It’s a farce from start to finish, which firmly stands at poor governance. TBH,this farce has happened for the last 20+ years, as the Rail Industry is never seen by any Government as something they can fix and run properly.  For a depressing read, get the ‘Railway Magazine’ this month to read how badly this Government are doing, and their stupid decisions which are making things worse.


 
Posted : 08/02/2024 9:38 am
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On the plus side, Manchester Mayor Burnham is generating support for some kind of additional rail link Manchester <–> Birmingham. This is on the basis that something is better than

Fingers crossed the gov don't sell off the already purchased land north of Birmingham. HS2 never made any sense if it didn't go north of Brum.


 
Posted : 08/02/2024 10:10 am
Murray and Murray reacted
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Fingers crossed the gov don’t sell off the already purchased land north of Birmingham.

You'll be totally unsurprised to hear it's already underway as part of their scorched earth policy before they're booted out

Government WILL sell HS2 land despite Andy Burnham's plan for a new line on it

I'm sure the land will end up in the hands of various Tory donors, who'll pay peanuts for it


 
Posted : 08/02/2024 10:20 am
Dickyboy, kelvin, kelvin and 1 people reacted
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And Starmer has already ruled out reviving the scheme:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-67924577


 
Posted : 08/02/2024 12:25 pm
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Difficult to see how he could commit to it, given the salting of the earth thats presently underway

The whole thing is an utter shambles! If it wasn't from its conception, then in its present state its just a complete white elephant


 
Posted : 08/02/2024 12:33 pm
Dickyboy, kelvin, Dickyboy and 1 people reacted
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HS2 never made any sense if it didn’t go north of Brum.

HS2 didnt make any sense the moment it stopped connecting with HS1. At that point the London > Birmingham stretch should have been canned and a new (probably not called HS2) plan for Brimingham > north should have been devised.


 
Posted : 08/02/2024 12:46 pm
binners and binners reacted
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HS2 didnt make any sense the moment it stopped connecting with HS1. At that point the London > Birmingham stretch should have been canned and a new (probably not called HS2) plan for Brimingham > north should have been devised.

None of it works if it doesn't connect to London.
Northern Powerhouse Rail worked well - at the initial stage when it would connect various Northern cities with Leeds and Manchester where the two spurs of HS2 would terminate (with options to extend up to Scotland and, from Manchester, across into North Wales).

Then Leeds got binned so NPR instantly lost a significant chunk of its Benefit:Cost Ratio (and there's a separate argument about why BCR is a terrible means of measuring massive and ultra-long-scale infrastructure projects anyway...).
Then Manchester got binned so NPR simply doesn't work in any meaningful sense at all other than the north desperately needs rail investment and improvement which is now being done piecemeal.

Connection of HS2 to Euston was the least worst option given that connection to St Pancras and HS1 was near impossible. Termination at Old Oak Common is a disaster because it'll overwhelm the already-at-capacity Elizabeth Line.

Whole thing has been an absolute shitshow overseen by a succession of Transport Ministers who have never cared in the slightest about anything other than cars


 
Posted : 08/02/2024 1:08 pm
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In what will come as a complete shock to absolutely no-one, it turns out that it costs more to cancel a scheme and end up with nothing than it does to proceed with the scheme and have a functional railway at the end of it all.

https://twitter.com/TransportXtra/status/1755517810216751192?t=ZNJGDEojFgeO_92gEmqC2Q&s=19


 
Posted : 09/02/2024 11:15 am
 5lab
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apparently hs2 "may" drop brum -> manc capacity by "up to 17%"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c725k6ynw7go

this seems on the face of it like a huge number - is it feasable or made up for a (political?) point? I'd imagine there's a bunch of trains between the two that wouldn't be replaced with hs2 trains (local runs etc) - and whilst the seat density of existing and new rolling stock may differ a little - 17% is a huge drop unless the trains are physically shorter?


 
Posted : 23/07/2024 4:17 pm
w00dster and w00dster reacted
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Oh, FFS.

Reducing capacity to Manchester.

Slow hand clap.

Freight to be reduced on existing lines as well.


 
Posted : 23/07/2024 4:30 pm
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Just came to post that very same thing!

Cancelling the northern leg means the capacity on the southern leg has to be reduced.

The Tories properly completely screwed everything they touched didn't they?


 
Posted : 23/07/2024 4:34 pm
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Especially as the reasons that costs spiraled was due to over-specification to beat the foreigners, protection of special interests in Tory voting seats, and repeated delays for political reasons.


 
Posted : 23/07/2024 4:48 pm
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HS2 should have been started in the "north" and morphed into a general improvement in public and freight transport routes.

Mate in London can walk to several National Rail stations in minutes with more a bit further out. I can't find many more in the entire county, let alone alone walk to them


 
Posted : 23/07/2024 4:51 pm
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As well as the line going from a part of London nobody can find to a part of Birmingham nobody wants to be at, there's a second spur that's going to join the West Coast Main Line north of Lichfield, on the edge of Cannock Chase. And I've heard that because the trains will be non-tilting they will have to go slower than the current Pendolinos once they've joined the old bit.


 
Posted : 23/07/2024 5:09 pm
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Already seen suspiciously similiar FB posts blaming Labour for this, of course.


 
Posted : 23/07/2024 6:18 pm
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HS2 should have been started in the “north”

If you build a linear road/railway/metro etc in phases, you start by building the busy end, not the quiet end.


 
Posted : 23/07/2024 9:56 pm
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What if the busiest stretch already has an effective, fast and frequent service, whereas the less busy stretch is less busy because it's a slow, disjointed nightmare. Which would you upgrade first then?


 
Posted : 24/07/2024 7:50 am
robola and robola reacted
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Which would you upgrade first then?

It's not an upgrade. It's a whole new line and for all of it to work effectively, all of it needs to be built.

It's like arguing which side of the river you build a bridge from - it usually helps if you build it from the side with best access to logistics but it still all needs building.


 
Posted : 24/07/2024 8:13 am
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As well as the line going from a part of London nobody can find

I thought HS2 shared Euston with the west coast mainline?


 
Posted : 24/07/2024 8:23 am
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I thought HS2 shared Euston with the west coast mainline?

In theory yes but Sunak decided not to fund it so it will only go ahead if the private sector decides to pay for it.

The main terminal whilst that was being decided was going to be Old Oak Common.


 
Posted : 24/07/2024 9:10 am
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I thought HS2 shared Euston with the west coast mainline?

That was the idea.
The plan was to completely redevelop Euston - which was already in dire need of restoration anyway. HS2 would come in underground from Old Oak Common to an underground terminal with 11 platforms. 10 in use and one as "spare" / contingency.

Upstairs would be the existing WCML station but done up.

That then got downgraded to ten platforms which means you have zero extra capacity and can't run as many trains.

Then it got re-scoped again (each re-scope taking a year of design work, costing another £100m and causing huge delays and cost over runs in general...) and the terminal station plan got binned off for a through station at OOK and relying on the already at-capacity Elizabeth Line to get passengers into London. Which is sort of like landing 4 jumbo jets an hour at Stansted and then relying on 2 coaches to get everyone to London, it was only ever going to be a huge bottleneck.

They had similar arguments about Manchester. Wanted an underground terminus station at Piccadilly (yet another place in dire need of renovation), then offered a surface station, then finally said bollocks to it, you're not getting HS2 at all.


 
Posted : 24/07/2024 9:25 am
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HS2 should have been started in the “north”

If you build a linear road/railway/metro etc in phases, you start by building the busy end, not the quiet end.

It’s not an upgrade. It’s a whole new line and for all of it to work effectively, all of it needs to be built.

It’s like arguing which side of the river you build a bridge from – it usually helps if you build it from the side with best access to logistics but it still all needs building.

It isn't about about where you stack your bricks by convention, it's about the project's principles. It must: stand the test of time; be the right strategic answer; be integrated with existing and future transport services (David Higgins (2014))

In 2013 Prof. Paul Salveson from the University of Huddersfield said, "I would like to see high-speed rail serving the north. But we can get much more for the same (or less) money through a revised scheme which provides much improved connectivity across the north rather than just the main centres."

When HS2 was reviewed by David Higgins in 2014 for the Government, he identified a lack of connectivity in the north as one of the two main issues that HS2 could address and proposed accelerating phase 2 (Birmingham northward) and a new hub at Crewe

Unfortunately it was a rushed mess by the Blair-Brown Government, badly tweaked by later Conservative governments


 
Posted : 24/07/2024 10:35 am
geeh, yosemitepaul, marra and 3 people reacted
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Well, Andy Burnham is angling for building another line Birmingham - Manchester anyway. This is not a bad idea as it would give lots of extra capacity and capitalise on the abandoned section of HS2. Would be expensive, given the UK's ****wittery in realising large projects.

Maybe something more realistic is to focus on upgrading the existing network - welded rail everywhere, automatic signalling and modern stations (platforms).

Whichever option, we need to stick with it and realise there are pros and cons, no matter what.


 
Posted : 24/07/2024 2:37 pm
drlex, kelvin, kelvin and 1 people reacted
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Unfortunately it was a rushed mess by the Blair-Brown Government

It's the BLAIR card!

FFS not a sod was turned under Labour, this sits squarely with the Tories and their 14 years of chaos and 7 SoS for Transport.


 
Posted : 24/07/2024 3:43 pm
AD, quirks, kelvin and 3 people reacted
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Well, Andy Burnham is angling for building another line Birmingham – Manchester anyway. This is not a bad idea as it would give lots of extra capacity and capitalise on the abandoned section of HS2.

Surely given the amount of planning, design & property purchased it would be just as cheap to plough on with HS2 as already devised, maybe with a slower speed designation to reduce the costs but build the station shells so the line & stations can be easily extended further north in the future.


 
Posted : 24/07/2024 3:56 pm
geeh, ratherbeintobago, geeh and 1 people reacted
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piemonster
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I thought HS2 shared Euston with the west coast mainline?

Yeah but the thing is, literally everything at the euston end was absolutely deranged, as crazy-legs mentioned. "First we'll dig a massive hole in the ground and disrupt everything around it, trash the local area... and THEN we'll decide what to build. And THEN we'll decide what to build again. And THEN we'll decide not to build it unless someone else pays for it for... some reason.


 
Posted : 24/07/2024 6:23 pm
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