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but all the business cases were done on speed
Does this mean the PR was based on speed?
The "business case" was the beginning of a modern rail network fit for the 21st Century. Currently it's as if we're living in the pre-motorway age, and people are pointing at plans for the first motorway and asking "what's the point?" If we'd gone on to to build just the one motorway, they'd have had a good point.
If the cost is going up because of inflation surely they should be speeding it up and spending more sooner, so that there's less inflation.
I’m not sure you can really count a 35-year-old train line as modern development.
In large parts of the country, that would be as close as it gets to brand spanking new!
If the cost is going up because of inflation surely they should be speeding it up and spending more sooner, so that there’s less inflation.
It's very difficult to increase spend.
Work being done now was planned in 12-18 months ago in terms of supply chain, deliveries, staffing, ground prep, logistics etc and payment to the hundreds of contractors involved will be based on a certain amount up front and a certain amount in terms of key milestones so to spend quicker you need to hurry that along. Which you can't really do cos it was all planned in a year ago and what you're planning for now won't / can't be built for another year because it depends on all the above being available and the current work being completed.
It's no good the tunnelling guys saying "oh yeah, we can go 3 months earlier" if the groundwork guys haven't got to the site yet.
On the other hand, if you say "cancel it now!" then everyone still needs paying but you have no tunnel.
Point on the London networks is they’re well maintained, have brilliant interconnections, modern high capacity trains and are on a single ticket network. There are strong bus connections too. It doesn’t matter a jot when the original tunnels were dug. None of this stuff came for free but it did come with ambition.
Yet more short sighted short termist myopic British mis-management and lack of any long term plan except how to reduce taxes for the uber rich.
Same mentality that makes us highly dependent on imported energy, have no capacity, run out of water each summer because nobody has built a decent reservoir for nearly 40 years , the roads are ****ed, the motorways semi permanently jammed up, the NHS is broken, etc etc etc.
We're heading back into the dark ages. A country that needs to stop harping back to the days of the Empire and how we won a war 70+ years ago. Those had absolutely fheckall use in 2023.
At least my offspring will have the skills and qualifications to be able to go work in numerous other countries when they want or need to. And I'll be dead before the worst of this sh1tfest really comes home to roost.
One of the worst kept secrets ever.
Should have spent the cash up North the Yorkshire rail franchise cancells more trains than beeching
Not just the population of the north I think everyone had a suspension.
Meanwhile it sounds like there’s been a massive cut to Active Travel England’s budget, which is piss poor in a climate emergency.
https://twitter.com/allpartycycling/status/1633895831521640458?s=61&t=8LkrnWDnhDoht21U_ISBdg
It’s very difficult to increase spend. Work being done now was planned in 12-18 months ago....etc etc
That all makes sense of course (my comment was slightly tongue in cheek), but delaying the spend doesn't reduce the total cost of the project unless you're actually just not doing it rather than delaying. Or you're expecting a recession to reduce costs.
I'm with Robertajobb, we just need to do it*. We've had 10-50 years (depending on your point of view/which bit of the country you're in) of running things down, 'sweating the assets', selling off the family silver and ripping the wiring out of the walls to weigh in the copper. And now we're looking around at the mess left, wondering why a country without a functioning public transport system isn't particularly productive and why real wages haven't increased from where they were before the 2008 crash, but still finding excuses not to do anything about it.
* By 'it' I mean HS2 and a million other infrastructure projects. Wind power, solar power, cycle lanes, local railways, town and city regeneration, trams, hospitals, schools, parks, etc.
Another failure of the conservatives. Have they actually delivered anything,but failures?
JeZ
Have they actually delivered anything
Shareholder value innit. We’re all have extensive stock portfolios don’t we? 🤑
The whole of the north of England is presently looking at their utterly dysfunctional, Victorian railway network, looking at all the investment that was promised, then cancelled (again!) and taking this as confirmation that HS2 is just yet more squillions spent on servicing commuter lines into London
The rest of the country can just rot for all they care.
They literally couldn’t give a ****.
Let’s all rejoice that after spending the GDP of Spain you will one day be able to get from Birmingham to London in half the time it takes you to get from Manchester to Leeds
‘Levelling up’?
I said from the start that they should have started at the most Northerly point and built South, that's the only way to make sure the whole thing gets built.
The whole of the north of England is...taking this as confirmation that HS2 is just yet more squillions spent on servicing commuter lines into London
I think you're mistaking your own opinion for that of the whole of the north, and you're mistaking your own rusted-on prejudices about HS2 for about what HS2 factually was (which has been explained to you by numerous people numerous times on this thread).
Shareholder value innit. We’re all have extensive stock portfolios don’t we? 🤑
If this were about satisfying the private sector, then it wouldn't have been paused. Those contractors and engineers would have preferred work to continue!
The problem is… what HS2 “factually was” and what we’re now getting in “the north” do not resemble each other. Lack of surprise about this further retraction of scope comes from the fact that many people up here expected that to happen, they have never bought into it being a nationwide project… and it turns out they were right.
[ I’m a long term defender of HS2… but impossible for me to argue that this isn’t now yet just another “London First” project ]
I think you’re mistaking your own opinion for that of the whole of the north
You reckon?
If you conducted a poll to see where people up here wanted infrastructure investment to go
A) improve and upgrade the crumbling rail network in the north
B) HS2
I can assure you you’ll only get one answer. And it’s painfully clear we can have one, but not both
You’d get a similar unanimous answer to the question ‘do you believe HS2 will ever get north of Birmingham?’
Maybe it’s you who needs to look at your prejudices?
We’re all funding a ludicrously expensive white elephant that will, once again, exclusively benefit London. All while the public transport infrastructure in the north continues to collapse through being starved of even the most minuscule levels of investment
And it’s painfully clear we can have one, but not both
Nah, we can have both. We need both. Political choice to leave the North behind, again.
Jam tomorrow... forever... it just makes everything cost more, and delays (sometimes seemingly indefinitely) the benefits...
https://twitter.com/NP_Partnership/status/1633880052667383821?s=20
Agree with that... except for the "protected" status of the MCR link. That'll probably get put outside the scope of HS2 eventually as well.
Yes. Not building/improving infra is a false economy.
Assuming half decent due diligence has been done, the economic growth resulting results in a higher tax take.
Not doing this, or adequately funding active travel or mass transit, is a political choice. Question is how much do they care as they’ve pretty much given up on winning the next election anyway.
You reckon?If you conducted a poll to see where people up here wanted infrastructure investment to go
A) improve and upgrade the crumbling rail network in the north
B) HS2
I can assure you you’ll only get one answer. And it’s painfully clear we can have one, but not both
You’d get a similar unanimous answer to the question ‘do you believe HS2 will ever get north of Birmingham?’
Maybe it’s you who needs to look at your prejudices?
We’re all funding a ludicrously expensive white elephant that will, once again, exclusively benefit London. All while the public transport infrastructure in the north continues to collapse through being starved of even the most minuscule levels of investment
Firstly, exactly what Kelvin said.
Secondly - this is not far off what a losing team on The Apprentice does. The project was badly marketed ("20 mins off a journey from Birmingham to London...") Big whoop, no-one cares.
The branding was off and in fact, "HS2" now as a name has become synonymous with waste, poor management, spiralling costs. Kind of like The Millenium Dome although that eventually got itself back on track after a name change, rebrand and someone came up with some commercially viable ideas for it.
And the management (largely from a political angle) has been terrible. Limited buy-in, constant changes of scope, constant reviews and re-reviews...
It's the standard British way of doing things. Claim it'll be world-leading, world-beating, a world-first. Wait for reality to collide with those lofty ambitions then cut it back and back and back. Over-promise and under-deliver, every time. The UK, while it has genuinely expert engineers and architects, simply cannot do infrastructure once politics gets involved.
Happens with so much - Edinburgh Trams?
It took about 15 years for the Manchester Metrolink expansion to happen, and even then that was short of what was originally promised.
It took about 15 years for the Manchester Metrolink expansion to happen, and even then that was short of what was originally promised.
They put all their eggs in the basket of a congestion charge (the funds of which would then go to building the extension) and held a referendum on it. As we all know, referendums are catastrophically stupid ideas and sure enough the idiot public voted it down.
So suddenly they had no funding and no real prospect of getting any so the idea sat in the drawer for years while they begged successive transport ministers (and various private sector developers including Manchester Airport themselves) for some cash. That was the main delay - marginally less to do with politics other than the politics of having a ****ing referendum. Idiots.
Nottingham did it right; they introduced a Workplace Parking Levy and used the funds from that to build their tram network. Actually did it very well and relatively quickly but they're a unitary authority and they had the cash so it didn't rely on Westminster cluttering things up.
Edinburgh - yes, you're right that was entirely political and a complete fiasco.
what HS2 factually was
🤣
Where to even start with that...
Maybe we should just concentrate on what it factually is, which is a bunch of pipe dreams and empty promises, destroyed countryside, and billions of pounds of public money spaffed up the wall, a wall which shaped cleverly to funnel said ejaculate into the pockets of the already wealthy.
@crazy-legs Yes and no. The Metrolink expansion was on the cards as far back as 1998, well before the congestion charge.
"How would you feel about trams into the very heart of Rochdale" was a bloody stupid way of selling the CC though. It seems possible/likely that GMCA are going to go down the workplace parking levy route though, but given the CAZ nonsense I doubt they've learned anything.
My dad reckons the full Edinburgh tram network will ultimately happen. But of course by delaying it loads, it'll cost far more than it would have done to JFDI in the first place.
Good thread on HS2 here:
https://twitter.com/nickbowes1975/status/1634111193529954304?t=qoC5Tl7IRzia7DMv4lZXhg&s=19
Does this mean the PR was based on speed?
No, business cases, based on the economic value of time saved. I suppose that 20 minutes may be of benefit to station cafes, but I doubt it's going to cover construction costs.
The UK, while it has genuinely expert engineers and architects, simply cannot do infrastructure once politics gets involved.
Short-termisms of our political system largely to blame there. Grand hoo-hah, launch project, next GE comes along, someone does an about face and whips the rug out from under the project.
5 years isn't enough time for a project like this to get out of bed and take a shit.
As we all know, referendums are catastrophically stupid ideas and sure enough the idiot public voted it down.
Depends how they are phrased really.
If it sounds like "would you like to poke a middle finger at johnny foreigner?" "Would you like some cake?" then 52% of people most people will say "yes".
I think you’re mistaking your own opinion for that of the whole of the north, and you’re mistaking your own rusted-on prejudices about HS2 for about what HS2 factually was (which has been explained to you by numerous people numerous times on this thread).
Horseshit.
.
We’re all funding a ludicrously expensive white elephant that will, once again, exclusively benefit London. All while the public transport infrastructure in the north continues to collapse through being starved of even the most minuscule levels of investment
Completely and irrefutably true.
PS, sorry for being rude. And I realise my argument wasn't very well presented or articulated, but TBH it will make sod all difference.
If you conducted a poll to see where people up here wanted infrastructure investment to go
A) improve and upgrade the crumbling rail network in the north
B) HS2
I can assure you you’ll only get one answer.
Well, yeah, if you asked people a stupid question based on a false premise you'd get a self-interested answer. Northern rail is shit. It's not shit because HS2 was happening, and the North doesn't need an HS2 type solution.
You can keep repeating sAvInG 15 MiNs fOr lOnDoN cOmMuTeRs for as long as you like, but that doesn't make it a sensible criticism. Phase 1 of HS2 has always been about adding capacity and reliability to some of the busiest rail in Europe, and which serves a population (Midlanders, flatlanders, and hated colonic latte-consuming Londoners) almost twice as large as the whole population of NE England, NW England and Yorks.
It’s not shit because HS2 was happening
Well… it is, isn’t it?
Because every other piece of rail infrastructure has been binned so that the black hole that is HS2 can suck in all the funding.
Remember that we were promised massive rail investment by a certain Mr G Osbourne as part of the Northerrn Powerhouse fairy tale. All of canned once HS2 was given the go ahead
And for what?
So you can get to Milton Keynes a bit quicker from the Midlands?
The whole thing is now a total farce!
Well… it is, isn’t it?
No, as explained by Kelvin above.
And for what?
So you can get to Milton Keynes a bit quicker from the Midlands?
No, as explained by numerous people to you before.
The whole thing is now a total farce!
Yes. Thanks, Red Wall Tories. Hope the Brexiteer northerners vote for you again. 🙄
Sometimes transport projects work. The Queensferry Crossing seemed to go pretty well and within budget?
as an aside from the bickering above, interesting to see HS2 works in action:
This report says that £20bn of £28bn total benefits for phase 1 are attributed to time saving
Yes, but only because it didn't even attempt to price the benefits of relieving capacity and resiliency on the existing rail network. They thought the benefits stacked up based on the HS2 ticket sales alone, and didn't attempt to include it in calculation of the BCR. Had it been included (and if there were any sensible away to calculate it) the BCR would have been higher. The failure to improve capacity and resiliency on existing network was used to challenge the alternatives to HS2.
As an aside - the optimism bias and risk assumptions paragraphs are pretty "hilarious" in retrospect.
Yes, but only because it didn’t even attempt to price the benefits of relieving capacity and resiliency on the existing rail network.
Hang on, you said that HS2 isn't about time saving, yet here is an OBC saying exactly that. That they didn't price other benefits isn't relevant.
you said that HS2 isn’t about time saving
No, I didn't. HTH (and saves you time).
Lol at the people still arguing for HS2!
It was shit from the outset and has got worse and worse.
I'm in favour of upgrading the rail network. But HS2 was and is all about London.
It's understandable that a new HS2 line will have one end in London. The investment is likely to be justified more quickly, that's where the only other HS line goes to, it has the highest population, biggest economy etc. The other end in Birmingham as the UK's 2nd city makes sense too.
Investment in lines further North could be used for 'levelling up'.
A new rail line benefits society as a whole, providing accessible transport for all and helps reduce congestion on roads.
The ecology can recover from the construction aswell.
If a project is wasting money. The answer is to identify and reduce the wastage. Where has the $100bn gone? Is it being spent effectively? That's the real issue.